Merchant Clans: Genious or Folly?

Note: I have wrote this while browsing both TIF and RSOF and noticed many comments on merchant clans. I am not, and never was, a part of a merchant clan (I do not actively merchant at all, I usually skill for money along with the occasional GWD trip). I have wrote this to the best of my indiscretion and attempted to write from an unbiased point of view. Anything in here that offends anyone can be commented on and I will attempt to change it. However I believe I have made a decent analysis on the issue of merchant clans with my knowledge of micro and macroeconomics.

 

 

 

Merchant clans has been pretty well known by now since the introduction of the GE. Successful Merchant clans are able to flip profits of about 500%/month or even higher in some instances. However, Their techniques to gain money is an extremely controversial topic. In fact, at one point, people believed that merchant clans can be banned due to it's basis being price manipulation. Nowadays, this tidbit has been confirmed as untrue as merchant clans furiously post upon RSOF to recruit new members and extend their influences. However, is their techniques guaranteed to work and gain profit every time? Let's take a look at the basis of a merchant clan and their control over the GE's prices.

 

 

 

(In my cases, I will only consider the common items such as logs, runes, and food. This neglect of specialty items is due to the fact that it is a completely different discussion on GE price controls.)

 

 

 

Merchant clan technique - GE's Coding

 

 

 

A Merchant clan makes money with a special form of team price manipulation. This was an unforeseen part of the GE programming that allows players to sway the GE price to their own view. The GE prices items by a system of supply and demand. Due to me not wanting to give a microeconomics lecture on a forum about a MMO, I will leave people just knowing the basics. The higher the price, the less consumers will want to buy the item and the more producers wish to sell the item, and vice versa. The supply curve and the demand curve usually meet somewhere in the middle in a Perfectly free economy to create the equilibrium price. The GE processes thousands of transactions each day to determine the price of an item in it's database. If it recognize more sellers of an item than buyers, it will lower the price of the item to try find the new equilibrium. The opposite also occurs for price rises on the GE. In cases of items being frozen (i.e. unsellable or unbuyable), it will register the huge supply or demand for the item and rise the prices at a faster rate than normal.

 

 

 

Merchant clan technique - Manipulating an AI

 

 

 

The GE is an AI used to price items. It does a very good job on some items and needs work on others. What merchant clans attempt to accomplish is in a sense "buying out" of certain items to force price up. An example will be the black mask price soar that occurred a while ago. Refering the the GE Database on the item Black Mask (7 days), prices seems to be generally calm until date Feb 3 when all of a sudden prices jumped. This could have been a very minor Merchant clan project (no one can be sure unless they have insider's information on a merchant clan). By buying all of the GE stocks on an item that is highly needed by players, GE will register the excess demand and rise the prices. Merchant clans seemed in this case to have gained a profit of 20k/mask or a 3% profit in 1 day. 20k may not seem a lot by itself, however, once factored in with the number of masks that might have been in the GE (assume 1,000 Black Mask in circulation), a clan overall could have earned 20,000k(20m) in 1 day on a single item.

 

 

 

Pros vs Cons of merchant clans

 

 

 

A merchant clan is considered a price manipulator in RS. They are able to amass great amount of money and change prices on certain items for their own profitability. It is, however, highly built on trust. If a few members decide to "sell early", those members will gain substantially more profit and perhaps induce a giant loss upon the people that has sold late. The ones that sells late may not be able to get rid of an item fast enough and once it has been disposed by the clan, the item usually becomes a junk item for a minimum of a week to sometimes even up to a month. It is a huge gamble for anyone that wants to join these tightly knit communities. The risk is great, but the reward is also enormous.

 

 

 

Should YOU join a merchant clan

 

 

 

RSOF has recruiting threads for many merchant clans, some which are doing extremely well in terms of profit and income. They often have requirements of having a certain amount of money. Jagex's view on Merchant clans are extremely blurry. It is now not known whether if it is against the rules or not. The selection process for one of these clans is also extremely complicated and usually requires an invite or voucher from members along with a proof of amount of cash amassed.

 

 

 

Further Research

 

Further Research on merchant clans can be done with a very introductory understanding of microeconomics supply and demand or macroeconomics laws of inflation.

 

 

 

A real life example that I have found to be very similar to the merchant clan issue in RS is OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) and its role in the Oil Crisis of 1973.

It had always been a dream of mine to be powerful enough to change things. But now that it's possible, the ones doing it seem like the kinds of people who would be at home in a dark room sitting around a gigantic table, talking in hushed whispers about what their next target is.

I personally don't see anything wrong with it, it's just like how things used to be (forcing prices of items up) and then selling them for a profit, only now that everyone can do it and it's a lot more stable actually.

I'd say you lay a pritty good arguement/question to it all. Merchanters aren't leaving a major impact but Manipulators might think its fine, but for certain items as say Black Masks for slaying, whips or training gear realy annoy the crap not only out of me but thousands of other players who are forced to pay higher and higher to get their equipment for training/skilling and thus create a disturbance in the cost it may take to level something and etc etc blah.

EDIT: Genius.

 

I think it's perfectly fine, in my opinion. The Ge's there for everyone to use. I, Myself had running with some others the largest private merchanting channel. We had such a buying power that say, we set the item as Dharok's sets in seconds those would be unbuyable. Usually holding for 1-2 weeks gaining make profit per day, it was just great.

 

 

 

Others complain that we're ruining RuneScape and conning others out of money, but we're not.

 

 

 

And, when the dumps set (As you said) said item, in this example, Dharok's sets would now be unsellable. And be considered junk until it's reached it's normal price.

 

 

 

You also said that some items become junk for 1 month to a year. How so? 99% of items are only junk until they reach the price they were at before they were bought out, and, even then you can expect that item to rise again because of another channel. I've never reallly seen any items be unsellable for 1month, let alone a year.

 

 

 

I've lost friends because of what I do, just because they don't agree with it. I couldn't care, it's what I do and the people who tell me not to just get removed/ignored.

You also said that some items become junk for 1 month to a year. How so? 99% of items are only junk until they reach the price they were at before they were bought out, and, even then you can expect that item to rise again because of another channel. I've never reallly seen any items be unsellable for 1month, let alone a year.

 

99% of the item is only junk for about a week at max of course. There are, however, certain items that seemed to have had a long term flop. I agree that years may be exaggerating and I will change that.

 

 

 

Off Topic: SOMEONE ACTUALLY SOLD A CRACKER ON THE GE?! O.O

i dont think theres to much wrong with clan merchantin, its just frowned upon.

It does seem a bit 'cheap', and the money gained presumably comes at someones expense who is actually working for their money. No effort to make money? Seems a bit strange doesn't it?

It does seem a bit 'cheap', and the money gained presumably comes at someones expense who is actually working for their money. No effort to make money? Seems a bit strange doesn't it?

 

it happens in real life to. but in merchanting there still is risk, more risk then cutting yews anyway.

Note: I have wrote this while browsing both TIF and RSOF and noticed many comments on merchant clans. I am not, and never was, a part of a merchant clan (I do not actively merchant at all, I usually skill for money along with the occasional GWD trip). I have wrote this to the best of my indiscretion and attempted to write from an unbiased point of view. Anything in here that offends anyone can be commented on and I will attempt to change it. However I believe I have made a decent analysis on the issue of merchant clans with my knowledge of micro and macroeconomics.

 

 

 

Merchant clans has been pretty well known by now since the introduction of the GE. Successful Merchant clans are able to flip profits of about 500%/month or even higher in some instances. However, Their techniques to gain money is an extremely controversial topic. In fact, at one point, people believed that merchant clans can be banned due to it's basis being price manipulation. Nowadays, this tidbit has been confirmed as untrue as merchant clans furiously post upon RSOF to recruit new members and extend their influences. However, is their techniques guaranteed to work and gain profit every time? Let's take a look at the basis of a merchant clan and their control over the GE's prices.

 

 

 

(In my cases, I will only consider the common items such as logs, runes, and food. This neglect of specialty items is due to the fact that it is a completely different discussion on GE price controls.)

 

 

 

Merchant clan technique - GE's Coding

 

 

 

A Merchant clan makes money with a special form of team price manipulation. This was an unforeseen part of the GE programming that allows players to sway the GE price to their own view. The GE prices items by a system of supply and demand. Due to me not wanting to give a microeconomics lecture on a forum about a MMO, I will leave people just knowing the basics. The higher the price, the less consumers will want to buy the item and the more producers wish to sell the item, and vice versa. The supply curve and the demand curve usually meet somewhere in the middle in a Perfectly free economy to create the equilibrium price. The GE processes thousands of transactions each day to determine the price of an item in it's database. If it recognize more sellers of an item than buyers, it will lower the price of the item to try find the new equilibrium. The opposite also occurs for price rises on the GE. In cases of items being frozen (i.e. unsellable or unbuyable), it will register the huge supply or demand for the item and rise the prices at a faster rate than normal.

 

 

 

Merchant clan technique - Manipulating an AI

 

 

 

The GE is an AI used to price items. It does a very good job on some items and needs work on others. What merchant clans attempt to accomplish is in a sense "buying out" of certain items to force price up. An example will be the black mask price soar that occurred a while ago. Refering the the GE Database on the item Black Mask (7 days), prices seems to be generally calm until date Feb 3 when all of a sudden prices jumped. This could have been a very minor Merchant clan project (no one can be sure unless they have insider's information on a merchant clan). By buying all of the GE stocks on an item that is highly needed by players, GE will register the excess demand and rise the prices. Merchant clans seemed in this case to have gained a profit of 20k/mask or a 3% profit in 1 day. 20k may not seem a lot by itself, however, once factored in with the number of masks that might have been in the GE (assume 1,000 Black Mask in circulation), a clan overall could have earned 20,000k(20m) in 1 day on a single item.

 

 

 

Pros vs Cons of merchant clans

 

 

 

A merchant clan is considered a price manipulator in RS. They are able to amass great amount of money and change prices on certain items for their own profitability. It is, however, highly built on trust. If a few members decide to "sell early", those members will gain substantially more profit and perhaps induce a giant loss upon the people that has sold late. The ones that sells late may not be able to get rid of an item fast enough and once it has been disposed by the clan, the item usually becomes a junk item for a minimum of a week to sometimes even up to a month. It is a huge gamble for anyone that wants to join these tightly knit communities. The risk is great, but the reward is also enormous.

 

 

 

Should YOU join a merchant clan

 

 

 

RSOF has recruiting threads for many merchant clans, some which are doing extremely well in terms of profit and income. They often have requirements of having a certain amount of money. Jagex's view on Merchant clans are extremely blurry. It is now not known whether if it is against the rules or not. The selection process for one of these clans is also extremely complicated and usually requires an invite or voucher from members along with a proof of amount of cash amassed.

 

 

 

Further Research

 

Further Research on merchant clans can be done with a very introductory understanding of microeconomics supply and demand or macroeconomics laws of inflation.

 

 

 

A real life example that I have found to be very similar to the merchant clan issue in RS is OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) and its role in the Oil Crisis of 1973.

 

 

 

You know how supply and demand works, I'll grant you that. The problem is that you don't know how the GE works. If an item is frozen in price, Jagex does NOT register the overwhelming supply or demand. Rather, they only take into account the amount of goods sold, and the price at which they were sold, and occasionally, "tied" prices.

 

 

 

The GE starts as a blank slate, with 0 offers to buy, and 0 offers to sell.

 

 

 

The first offer placed checks with every other offer. That is, if an item goes from 500k to 700k, and you offer 600K, is anyone selling it for 600k or less? Not yet, because the only offer so far is yours.

 

 

 

The next offer now looks at your offer and see if it completes theirs. If not, it adds another offer to the list. It thus creates a sort of "list".

 

 

 

The idea of GE manipulation is to buy so much of a product at once that it completes EVERY offer to sell, or nearly every offer to sell. That means anyone else who wants to buy will not have their offer completed at a lower price, and will instead wait til the next person selling... but there are already offers in line, offering to buy at max. The item continues to be purchased at maximum, tricking the poorly designed AI into thinking that demand is higher, because trades are completed at the upper bound.

I personally find the whole thing to be morally wrong, but to them, their ends justify their means.

You know how supply and demand works, I'll grant you that. The problem is that you don't know how the GE works. If an item is frozen in price, Jagex does NOT register the overwhelming supply or demand. Rather, they only take into account the amount of goods sold, and the price at which they were sold, and occasionally, "tied" prices.

 

 

 

The GE starts as a blank slate, with 0 offers to buy, and 0 offers to sell.

 

 

 

The first offer placed checks with every other offer. That is, if an item goes from 500k to 700k, and you offer 600K, is anyone selling it for 600k or less? Not yet, because the only offer so far is yours.

 

 

 

The next offer now looks at your offer and see if it completes theirs. If not, it adds another offer to the list. It thus creates a sort of "list".

 

 

 

The idea of GE manipulation is to buy so much of a product at once that it completes EVERY offer to sell, or nearly every offer to sell. That means anyone else who wants to buy will not have their offer completed at a lower price, and will instead wait til the next person selling... but there are already offers in line, offering to buy at max. The item continues to be purchased at maximum, tricking the poorly designed AI into thinking that demand is higher, because trades are completed at the upper bound.

 

 

 

The Grand Exchange has different rates of increase and decrease in price. It can be shown in items such as the D claws, Opulent Tables, and Raw Wild Pie. Assuming like you said, the GE has a blank slate, currently no one is selling Raw Wild Pies. I decide at this time that I will put in an offer for 500 of them at maximum price. According to you, because no transactions are being made, the price is frozen. That is not the case as Raw Wild Pie's price is increasing because it registers 500 demand vs 0 supply. If I chose to offer at below medium price, that is a case when the price will not register toward demand and sit there waiting for an offer of supplying to complete said transaction.

 

 

 

As for the last paragraph, you basically just reworded everything I wrote in my first post >.>

It does seem a bit 'cheap', and the money gained presumably comes at someones expense who is actually working for their money. No effort to make money? Seems a bit strange doesn't it?

 

Unlike common belief, clan merchants undertake a great risk when engaged in their activity. Consider this scenario, your clan just told everyone to buy all the whips you possibly can at max price. You spend 160m on whips and now own 100 whips (which is always fun because hey, who doesn't want 100 whips right? =P). After 3 days, your clan issue the item dumping command. You are currently in class listening to your favorite Geology teacher talking about why studying rocks are awesome. An hour after class, you get to your computer, see the dump item command and rushes to the GE. Whips are now 2m each and you are happy that you made 40m. You click to sell, and in horror you see that no one is buying your whips. You now offer at min price thinking making 30m isn't that bad, still no one is buying. You look in your clan chat to see 20 people already finished dumping whips along with 15 other people dumping at min. All of a sudden, you own 100 items that are about to undergo a giant crash. That is the risk of a merchant clan and perhaps their greatest nightmare.

It does seem a bit 'cheap', and the money gained presumably comes at someones expense who is actually working for their money. No effort to make money? Seems a bit strange doesn't it?

 

Unlike common belief, clan merchants undertake a great risk when engaged in their activity. Consider this scenario, your clan just told everyone to buy all the whips you possibly can at max price. You spend 160m on whips and now own 100 whips (which is always fun because hey, who doesn't want 100 whips right? =P). After 3 days, your clan issue the item dumping command. You are currently in class listening to your favorite Geology teacher talking about why studying rocks are awesome. An hour after class, you get to your computer, see the dump item command and rushes to the GE. Whips are now 2m each and you are happy that you made 40m. You click to sell, and in horror you see that no one is buying your whips. You now offer at min price thinking making 30m isn't that bad, still no one is buying. You look in your clan chat to see 20 people already finished dumping whips along with 15 other people dumping at min. All of a sudden, you own 100 items that are about to undergo a giant crash. That is the risk of a merchant clan and perhaps their greatest nightmare.

 

 

 

Another example of why going to school is for losers.

 

 

 

But seriously, that is the risk you take. And I don't know about you, but reading this makes me think maybe Martha Stewart is at it again, but this time as the head of a Runescape Price Manipulating Clan!

It does seem a bit 'cheap', and the money gained presumably comes at someones expense who is actually working for their money. No effort to make money? Seems a bit strange doesn't it?

 

Unlike common belief, clan merchants undertake a great risk when engaged in their activity. Consider this scenario, your clan just told everyone to buy all the whips you possibly can at max price. You spend 160m on whips and now own 100 whips (which is always fun because hey, who doesn't want 100 whips right? =P). After 3 days, your clan issue the item dumping command. You are currently in class listening to your favorite Geology teacher talking about why studying rocks are awesome. An hour after class, you get to your computer, see the dump item command and rushes to the GE. Whips are now 2m each and you are happy that you made 40m. You click to sell, and in horror you see that no one is buying your whips. You now offer at min price thinking making 30m isn't that bad, still no one is buying. You look in your clan chat to see 20 people already finished dumping whips along with 15 other people dumping at min. All of a sudden, you own 100 items that are about to undergo a giant crash. That is the risk of a merchant clan and perhaps their greatest nightmare.

 

 

 

Another example of why going to school is for losers.

 

 

 

But seriously, that is the risk you take. And I don't know about you, but reading this makes me think maybe Martha Stewart is at it again, but this time as the head of a Runescape Price Manipulating Clan!

 

Gasp. Let's sue her and make her give everyone 500m RS monies. -brings out the pitchforks and torches-

It does seem a bit 'cheap', and the money gained presumably comes at someones expense who is actually working for their money. No effort to make money? Seems a bit strange doesn't it?

 

Unlike common belief, clan merchants undertake a great risk when engaged in their activity. Consider this scenario, your clan just told everyone to buy all the whips you possibly can at max price. You spend 160m on whips and now own 100 whips (which is always fun because hey, who doesn't want 100 whips right? =P). After 3 days, your clan issue the item dumping command. You are currently in class listening to your favorite Geology teacher talking about why studying rocks are awesome. An hour after class, you get to your computer, see the dump item command and rushes to the GE. Whips are now 2m each and you are happy that you made 40m. You click to sell, and in horror you see that no one is buying your whips. You now offer at min price thinking making 30m isn't that bad, still no one is buying. You look in your clan chat to see 20 people already finished dumping whips along with 15 other people dumping at min. All of a sudden, you own 100 items that are about to undergo a giant crash. That is the risk of a merchant clan and perhaps their greatest nightmare.

 

 

 

Another example of why going to school is for losers.

 

 

 

But seriously, that is the risk you take. And I don't know about you, but reading this makes me think maybe Martha Stewart is at it again, but this time as the head of a Runescape Price Manipulating Clan!

 

Gasp. Let's sue her and make her give everyone 500m RS monies. -brings out the pitchforks and torches-

 

 

 

If we're going to do that, we should buy up all the pitchforks and torches, then sell them to the mob at a greatly increased price and make ourselves a buttload of money.

 

 

 

Or am I missing the point of the thread?

You know how supply and demand works, I'll grant you that. The problem is that you don't know how the GE works. If an item is frozen in price, Jagex does NOT register the overwhelming supply or demand. Rather, they only take into account the amount of goods sold, and the price at which they were sold, and occasionally, "tied" prices.

 

 

 

The GE starts as a blank slate, with 0 offers to buy, and 0 offers to sell.

 

 

 

The first offer placed checks with every other offer. That is, if an item goes from 500k to 700k, and you offer 600K, is anyone selling it for 600k or less? Not yet, because the only offer so far is yours.

 

 

 

The next offer now looks at your offer and see if it completes theirs. If not, it adds another offer to the list. It thus creates a sort of "list".

 

 

 

The idea of GE manipulation is to buy so much of a product at once that it completes EVERY offer to sell, or nearly every offer to sell. That means anyone else who wants to buy will not have their offer completed at a lower price, and will instead wait til the next person selling... but there are already offers in line, offering to buy at max. The item continues to be purchased at maximum, tricking the poorly designed AI into thinking that demand is higher, because trades are completed at the upper bound.

 

 

 

The Grand Exchange has different rates of increase and decrease in price. It can be shown in items such as the D claws, Opulent Tables, and Raw Wild Pie. Assuming like you said, the GE has a blank slate, currently no one is selling Raw Wild Pies. I decide at this time that I will put in an offer for 500 of them at maximum price. According to you, because no transactions are being made, the price is frozen. That is not the case as Raw Wild Pie's price is increasing because it registers 500 demand vs 0 supply. If I chose to offer at below medium price, that is a case when the price will not register toward demand and sit there waiting for an offer of supplying to complete said transaction.

 

 

 

As for the last paragraph, you basically just reworded everything I wrote in my first post >.>

 

 

 

The Grand Exchange does not look at uncompleted transactions. This has been proved many, many times over, in less traded items. Look at the three items you listed:

 

 

 

Dragon Claws - Coinshare

 

Raw Wild Pie - Easily accessible, so not unlikely at all that someone would choose to sell it.

 

Opulent Tables - Look at the price chart. Some days it raises, some days it doesn't. Occasionally someone may sell one of these, since these are another of those "collect in bulk" items.

 

 

 

Now let's look at some frozen items that are less likely to be randomly traded.

 

 

 

Partyhats... guess what? Most of them don't move a lot.

 

 

 

Divine and Elysian Spirit shields... guess what? Again, they aren't moving a lot.

 

 

 

I know at least a dozen people offhand who have offers for divine and elysian spirit shields and sigils. Why is it, then, that there is almost never a change in price? The minor changes are due to tied items, Elixirs, Spirit Shields, and Blessed Spirit Shields. The Sigils and Shields themselves are never traded, despite the massive amount of offers, and therefore, never change in price besides reconciliation.

 

 

 

Grand Exchange prices change based on completed transactions, not offers. Even if there were 10K Divine Spirit Shield offers, unless one was sold, the price would not change.

Raw Wild Pie's price is increasing because SOMEONE sold some. It does not register demand and supply, it only registers transactions. Look at items like Spirit Shields (disregard the small distortions caused by the price change of tied items, of course), or at third age. It is highly probable that someone, somewhere had one or two raw wild pies to sell, that caused the price shift.

 

The possible 1-2 Wild Pies sold is negligible, it is too small of a number to have a general effect on the overall GE pricing. A look on the GE database reveals a +111.2% increase in 30 days. 1-2 pies can not do that. As for 3a and spirit shields, that is a discussion for the price floors and price ceiling of the GE, which is not relevant to a discussion about clan merchant and the operation of the GE.

 

 

 

EDIT: It seems that Raw Wild Pies and Opulent Tables has both stopped rising for a day. It is quite possible that this is due to the price ceiling placed on the GE for these items. Otherwise, it is a failure for the Database to update the current prices.

Raw Wild Pie's price is increasing because SOMEONE sold some. It does not register demand and supply, it only registers transactions. Look at items like Spirit Shields (disregard the small distortions caused by the price change of tied items, of course), or at third age. It is highly probable that someone, somewhere had one or two raw wild pies to sell, that caused the price shift.

 

The possible 1-2 Wild Pies sold is negligible, it is too small of a number to have a general effect on the overall GE pricing. A look on the GE database reveals a +111.2% increase in 30 days. 1-2 pies can not do that. As for 3a and spirit shields, that is a discussion for the price floors and price ceiling of the GE, which is not relevant to a discussion about clan merchant and the operation of the GE.

 

 

 

EDIT: It seems that Raw Wild Pies and Opulent Tables has both stopped rising for a day. It is quite possible that this is due to the price ceiling placed on the GE for these items. Otherwise, it is a failure for the Database to update the current prices.

 

 

 

There is no price floor or ceiling on spirit shields or third age.

 

 

 

And no, 1-2 wild pies sold is NOT negligible, because of the design of the Grand Exchange. Look at the GE graph for raw wild pies again. Notice that there is a 2-day period in which it increased... and the line is linear. That means it increased at the same rate (approximately 5%, modified for rounding). Notice that other times, it doesn't increase. I can assure you that plenty of people have been offering to buy it EVERY DAY, not just those 2 days.

 

 

 

This is a failure of the Grand Exchange itself, a faulty design. The Grand Exchange SHOULD operate as the TC suggested, considering supply and demand. However, Jagex designed it to operate only on completed transactions, basing price changes not on the QUANTITY of exchange, but on the price that transactions have been completed at.

 

 

 

Price floors only exist based on the in-game values, be it store or alchemy. Price ceilings, to my knowledge, do not exist yet (although there may be one at the GP cap.)

There is no price floor or ceiling on spirit shields or third age.

 

 

 

And no, 1-2 wild pies sold is NOT negligible, because of the design of the Grand Exchange. Look at the GE graph for raw wild pies again. Notice that there is a 2-day period in which it increased... and the line is linear. That means it increased at the same rate (approximately 5%, modified for rounding). Notice that other times, it doesn't increase. I can assure you that plenty of people have been offering to buy it EVERY DAY, not just those 2 days.

 

 

 

This is a failure of the Grand Exchange itself, a faulty design. The Grand Exchange SHOULD operate as the TC suggested, considering supply and demand. However, Jagex designed it to operate only on completed transactions, basing price changes not on the QUANTITY of exchange, but on the price that transactions have been completed at.

 

 

 

Price floors only exist based on the in-game values, be it store or alchemy. Price ceilings, to my knowledge, do not exist yet (although there may be one at the GP cap.)

 

Assuming we go by your model of complete transactions. 2 Wild Pies exchanging hands would only increase the price by at most 50gp. There is no way to achieve the 111.2% increase with those 2 pies.

 

 

 

As for price ceilings, take a look at the 3a item 3a amulet on the GE. Notice the pattern in the increased rate. The line appears flat for 6 days then jumps on the 7th. That shows the gradual increase of the price ceiling that Jagex is implementing. If you really want to argue about the 3a market, you should refer to micro economics and look at the effects of faulty price control. I have made a topic about that on the RSOF once, but that topic was not well bumped and it has already died. As for price floors, look at your common junk such as Maple Longbow (u). It will give a clear indication that Price Floors exist in RS.

There is no price floor or ceiling on spirit shields or third age.

 

 

 

And no, 1-2 wild pies sold is NOT negligible, because of the design of the Grand Exchange. Look at the GE graph for raw wild pies again. Notice that there is a 2-day period in which it increased... and the line is linear. That means it increased at the same rate (approximately 5%, modified for rounding). Notice that other times, it doesn't increase. I can assure you that plenty of people have been offering to buy it EVERY DAY, not just those 2 days.

 

 

 

This is a failure of the Grand Exchange itself, a faulty design. The Grand Exchange SHOULD operate as the TC suggested, considering supply and demand. However, Jagex designed it to operate only on completed transactions, basing price changes not on the QUANTITY of exchange, but on the price that transactions have been completed at.

 

 

 

Price floors only exist based on the in-game values, be it store or alchemy. Price ceilings, to my knowledge, do not exist yet (although there may be one at the GP cap.)

 

Assuming we go by your model of complete transactions. 2 Wild Pies exchanging hands would only increase the price by at most 50gp. There is no way to achieve the 111.2% increase with those 2 pies.

 

 

 

As for price ceilings, take a look at the 3a item 3a amulet on the GE. Notice the pattern in the increased rate. The line appears flat for 6 days then jumps on the 7th. That shows the gradual increase of the price ceiling that Jagex is implementing. If you really want to argue about the 3a market, you should refer to micro economics and look at the effects of faulty price control. I have made a topic about that on the RSOF once, but that topic was not well bumped and it has already died. As for price floors, look at your common junk such as Maple Longbow (u). It will give a clear indication that Price Floors exist in RS.

 

 

 

What are you talking about? Raw wild pie increased by 111.2% over a MONTH. That's THIRTY days for raw wild pies to be sold, and THIRTY chances for a 5% increase. Take 105% to the 30th power, and what do you get? 432%. That means that a single pie sold each day can account for up to 332% increase in price over a month, which is the figure I'm assuming you're looking at.

 

 

 

The "pattern" isn't very consistent, please note that. It doesn't always occur every 7 days. Sometimes it occurs every 5, sometimes it occurs every 8 or 9. For a while, the price wasn't increasing at all. This isn't a price ceiling. This is the fact that it's not being sold every day, it's only being sold once every 5-9 days (which is the rough range). I'm sure if you go back further, perhaps to the point where 3a was right about to temporarily crash, you'll see a steady increase over 2-3 days.

 

 

 

EDIT: Jagex specifically states in the KB as well that the GE has no limitations besides price floors based on other in-game prices (such as stores and alchemy). Although that may not be 100% true, it seems to fit with everything we do know about the GE.

What are you talking about? Raw wild pie increased by 111.2% over a MONTH. That's THIRTY days for raw wild pies to be sold, and THIRTY chances for a 5% increase. Take 105% to the 30th power, and what do you get? 432%. That means that a single pie sold each day can account for up to 332% increase in price over a month, which is the figure I'm assuming you're looking at.

 

 

 

The "pattern" isn't very consistent, please note that. It doesn't always occur every 7 days. Sometimes it occurs every 5, sometimes it occurs every 8 or 9. For a while, the price wasn't increasing at all. This isn't a price ceiling. This is the fact that it's not being sold every day, it's only being sold once every 5-9 days (which is the rough range). I'm sure if you go back further, perhaps to the point where 3a was right about to temporarily crash, you'll see a steady increase over 2-3 days.

 

My misinformation last post was my mistake then. 1-2 pies sold at max will be lucky to account for a 1% increase in price due to the huge volume of demand that is in the Raw Wild Pie market. If the GE operates on complete transactions, there is no possible way for the pies to increase 111.2% over a month. Your explanation is like me saying if I buy 1 TVs from Best Buy each day, I will increase the price of the TV from $1000 to $2000 in 30 days.

 

 

 

As for the pattern, a price ceiling adjust will require manual change. And no one will time the changes exactly to the second. The reason why the price ceiling is not completely removed in my opinion is that Jagex has programmed in a check for themselves to prevent either possible hacking or sabotage of the GE system. Imagine if a person hacks into Jagex database and changed the price of tinderbox to 1m, that can not be allowed. Therefore, Jagex probably built in a fail safe so that a game will not be destroyed in 1 hasty act. Of course this is my speculation. However, the truth can not be denied, there is a price ceiling on items within the GE.

My misinformation last post was my mistake then. 1-2 pies sold at max will be lucky to account for a 1% increase in price due to the huge volume of demand that is in the Raw Wild Pie market. If the GE operates on complete transactions, there is no possible way for the pies to increase 111.2% over a month. Your explanation is like me saying if I buy 1 TVs from Best Buy each day, I will increase the price of the TV from $1000 to $2000 in 30 days.

Yeah, that's kind of why it's obvious that Runescape's GE would fail in real world practice. It only takes completed transactions into account, that's a fact. Also, they may have it adjust in price based on whether or not the percentage of completed transactions was above or below the market price - meaning if 1-2 pies sold at max and only 1-2 pies sold that die, then 100% of the completed transactions were above market price and thus causing an increase in price.

 

 

 

As for the pattern, a price ceiling adjust will require manual change. And no one will time the changes exactly to the second. The reason why the price ceiling is not completely removed in my opinion is that Jagex has programmed in a check for themselves to prevent either possible hacking or sabotage of the GE system. Imagine if a person hacks into Jagex database and changed the price of tinderbox to 1m, that can not be allowed. Therefore, Jagex probably built in a fail safe so that a game will not be destroyed in 1 hasty act. Of course this is my speculation. However, the truth can not be denied, there is a price ceiling on items within the GE.

If you honestly think JaGex manually adjusts price ceilings on a day to day basis then you are pretty thick. Yes there are price cielings on items in the GE, but that is only for items that are sold in shops and the ceiling is the shop price(this has been known for a long time).

What are you talking about? Raw wild pie increased by 111.2% over a MONTH. That's THIRTY days for raw wild pies to be sold, and THIRTY chances for a 5% increase. Take 105% to the 30th power, and what do you get? 432%. That means that a single pie sold each day can account for up to 332% increase in price over a month, which is the figure I'm assuming you're looking at.

 

 

 

The "pattern" isn't very consistent, please note that. It doesn't always occur every 7 days. Sometimes it occurs every 5, sometimes it occurs every 8 or 9. For a while, the price wasn't increasing at all. This isn't a price ceiling. This is the fact that it's not being sold every day, it's only being sold once every 5-9 days (which is the rough range). I'm sure if you go back further, perhaps to the point where 3a was right about to temporarily crash, you'll see a steady increase over 2-3 days.

 

My misinformation last post was my mistake then. 1-2 pies sold at max will be lucky to account for a 1% increase in price due to the huge volume of demand that is in the Raw Wild Pie market. If the GE operates on complete transactions, there is no possible way for the pies to increase 111.2% over a month. Your explanation is like me saying if I buy 1 TVs from Best Buy each day, I will increase the price of the TV from $1000 to $2000 in 30 days.

 

 

 

As for the pattern, a price ceiling adjust will require manual change. And no one will time the changes exactly to the second. The reason why the price ceiling is not completely removed in my opinion is that Jagex has programmed in a check for themselves to prevent either possible hacking or sabotage of the GE system. Imagine if a person hacks into Jagex database and changed the price of tinderbox to 1m, that can not be allowed. Therefore, Jagex probably built in a fail safe so that a game will not be destroyed in 1 hasty act. Of course this is my speculation. However, the truth can not be denied, there is a price ceiling on items within the GE.

 

 

 

1) No. You're not listening. As long as a single transaction of that good is conducted that day, the price will raise to the value of the transactions completed. The amount being traded is irrelevant. This is why myself, and hundreds, possibly thousands, of others continually complain that the GE needs fixing. The GE's system is horribly, horribly designed. However, the system is what it is.

 

 

 

2) There IS NO PRICE CEILING. 3rd age items ARE traded, just not very frequently. That's why the price changes occur irregularly, once every few days or so. Jagex has stated clearly multiple times that price ceilings do not exist, and any item that appears to have a ceiling is one that is not traded frequently.

 

 

 

3) If Jagex's database is hacked, they'd have a damn lot more to worry about than a price for a single item that isn't being traded anyways. That, they could fix with minutes. There is absolutely no reason they'd bother implementing such a "fail safe."

 

 

 

EDIT: Correction, there are no KNOWN price ceilings. And by the way, the easiest way to check for a price ceiling is that the median price will be equal to the maximum price. Look at items with known price floors... Maple Longbow (u) for instance. 144 min, 144 median. Unless an item is 1 gp (which means it's locked for another reason but not a ceiling), the maximum price is always greater than the median price.

 

2) There IS NO PRICE CEILING. 3rd age items ARE traded, just not very frequently. That's why the price changes occur irregularly, once every few days or so. Jagex has stated clearly multiple times that price ceilings do not exist, and any item that appears to have a ceiling is one that is not traded frequently.

 

 

 

EDIT: Correction, there are no KNOWN price ceilings. And by the way, the easiest way to check for a price ceiling is that the median price will be equal to the maximum price. Look at items with known price floors... Maple Longbow (u) for instance. 144 min, 144 median. Unless an item is 1 gp (which means it's locked for another reason but not a ceiling), the maximum price is always greater than the median price.

 

 

 

Cooked lobsters have a price ceiling of 368 gp. I wish I had the data, the charts, a screenshot. But when PVP came out, you could not buy a cooked lobster on the GE for more than 368 gp, even though I'm sure people wanted to pay upwards of 500 gp per. In fact, for several days the middle price of a cooked lobster was the same as the max, 368 gp.

 

 

 

Swordfish is another example - the max you could buy a swordfish for was around 470 gp.

 

 

 

I know this because I bought about 25k of each before pvp was introduced, waited for 2k weeks afterwards, and saw this with my own eyes.

 

 

 

Oh, and rune armour too. It was somewhere around 70k maximum for a platebody. You can know that a price is fixed when the median is closer to one end than another. And rune scimitars. And 2hs. Actually, pretty much all f2p combat related stuff had price ceilings. But I'm betting that you didn't see any of this, you didn't try to buy rune armour or scims or 2hs about 2 weeks after pvp came out. Trust me though, they were there.