swampjedi

No comments on the math?

No, actually it wouldn't. If statements are constant time in the world of algorithmic analysis - O(1) (Big Oh of One) if you care to know. The only thing you really have to worry about are loops. That code would be very quick, assuming direct memory access (ie, no database calls).

Okay, I've had 21 runs in a row with at least one death out of the four regular patches. Supercompost on every patch. Chances of 0 dying in 4 (assuming 10% death rate): .9^4 = approx 66% So chances of at least one dying are 34%. Chances of at least one dying 21 runs in a row: .34^21 = approx 0.000000014% or 14 times in ten billion. That's awfully long odds. It's about the same odds as flipping a fair coin 33 times in a row and getting the same result all 33 times. Someone check my math - it's been a long day. If we assume that the 10% death rate is PER lifecycle phase (four phases?) - Chance of one not dying = .9^4 = approx 66% So chances of one dying are 34%. Chances of 0 dying in 4 is .66^4 = 19% So chances of one dying are 81%. Chances of at least one dying 21 runs in a row =.81^21 or 1%. That's TOTALLY believable and possible. Anyone up for logging herbs? :)

Think of it as a pre-study to find out if it's worth doing a study. :)

Perhaps, but your problem of reading comprehension remains.

To be fair, I do remember at least ONE time when some drop rates got unintentionally broken (I think it was that something wouldn't drop at all). So yeah, it's happened. But yes - was just wondering if anyone had experienced anything similar, or was this just a blip. Trust me, I know chances are 99% or more that it's a blip.

Yeah, I keep trying to talk them into it - but Ard at least HATES the idea. :-) She got to the point where grinding kicked in, and didn't care to grind. Herb does suck. Absolutely. But since I basically only came back to the game for 99 farm and herb, I don't really care. I STILL have more cash than when I started! :-)

You still aren't reading, n64. Lemme break it down. Something seems wrong. I have no data. I am asking if anyone does.

Folks, read what I wrote - I'm not stupid. My post wasn't "Durr, my sample of 2 runs proves something", it was "Something seems like it MIGHT be off so I want to investigate." C'mon guys, 98 farming, tens of thousands of herb runs. I'm not a farming noob. Read carefully BEFORE you hit the reply button. And trem, you're wrong. Average is roughly 6.5 w secateurs and scompost, and has been since I started.

I haven't been keeping precise numbers, but it seems to me that my herbs are dying more. In the last week, more than half of my runs (it seems) have had 1 or 2 deaths, and averaging fewer per live plant. I've had five runs where three were dead, and two where all four were dead. This works out to an average of 5 or less (and that includes the troll patch). For example, my last 2 runs averaged to 4.8. I'm 98 farming, and I've done pure herbs since the 80s - this isn't normal. I KNOW the law of averages, so don't tell me I'm having bad luck. I expect that is EXACTLY it... unless lots of other people are feeling that it has changed. I think I'll start keeping track and see what I get. I still have ~800 seeds to go till 99.

1944: Monkfish

80.95 - not bad considering lvl 1 summoning!

No one! :) But frankly, farming is the ONE skill I enjoy. I'll keep doing herbs long after 99 - but instead focus on cash crops. I dunno, I'm already a little tired of RS. Been back only a few weeks. Always good to see you, man. Don't be a stranger!

1943: Range Pots

I've sold a few thousand unstrung sapphire very easily.

Changed my mind. Just bought the rest of the stuff I need for 99 Herb at a cost of 25m. Should be able to sell the pots and leftovers for roughly 20m. And by the time I clean 7k dwarf (since they were cheaper than cleaned!), grow 6k weeds, and mix 13k pots, I'll have more than made that 5m back.

1942: Herbs

Thanks man, so I've gathered. :-D

1941: Ranging Pots Herblore is unbelievably expensive right now.

I'm not sure I feel any pity for the "then I couldn't play at work" statement. Overall though, sounds reasonable.

Due to inflation, getting 99 herb right now is prohibitively expensive. I think I'll end up losing LOTS more than I had planned, since dwarf weeds are 500gp higher than I planned. Selling my 60k cballs for 220 each - hoping to rebuy for like 150-180 after the 26k trick is nerfed and prices fall.

Yeah, and then I'll do the same with my 401(k) that tanked. #-o I guess the best thing to do is diversify, much like in the real world. Keep some cash, and keep some items. :-P

Oh I'd say merchant clans are a drip out of an ocean of inflation. Obviously, or else things wouldn't be shooting through the roof! So... I'd like to propose a new direction for this thread. We've determined that inflation is happening (though the cause is, of course, debatable). Now, what's the best thing to do to NOT be crushed financially by this? Since we assume that PVP rewards and 26king are the culprit, those can't be the answer :-P If you assume that the rewards will be rebalanced, I'd almost say: Sell all rares (which have HISTORICALLY been tied to inflation) because they're going to crash hard again. Sell all unfinished ingredients NOW while they're pricey, and rebuy them when everything crashes. Heck, sell anything and everything! You've have a huge cashpile that will increase in buying power as the market deflates to normal levels. The problem is, if we assume that the inflation is going to continue, the complete opposite is true - you want your cash in items that are tied to inflation, and not in cash.

All the folks coming back after two years, it's crazy! Me, you, DDR, .... others.... um... Anyways, welcome back!

Thanks 3d! 1940: Red Chins Finally, all noncombats 80+! Now to mix pots and farm until I get both to 99 on the same day.