Grand Exchange Conspiracy Theory

[qeltar]

 

Sorry, your analogy is absurd.

 

 

Uh huh. It's so "absurd" that you couldn't even attempt a counter-argument to support your silly claim that the magnitude of a problem has anything to do with its percentage of the size of a market. So much for that.

 

 

Everyone can buy and sell rares.

 

 

:lol:

 

 

 

I don't know whom you think you're fooling with this nonsense, but I can assure you that it's not me. Here's a quote that came to mind:

 

 

 

ÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ãâ¦Ã¢â¬ÅThe law, in its majestic equality, forbids rich and poor alike to sleep under bridges, beg in the streets or steal bread.ÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬ÃâÃ

[hohto]

Fascinating that you don't seem to be able to produce any of these facts, and just continue spewing insults instead. I'm sure that speaks volumes.

 

---

 

Such as?

 

 

 

Lets get into this.... And after this answer I'd want something else than 1 or 2 liners back from you. Here's your facts and theories.

 

 

 

1st claim: Discontinued items are one fairly significant motivation for real world trading and gold buying.

 

 

 

This one is relatively easy. What I've seen, since the earliest days of rs2/last days of rsc, the number of sold or bought rares has decreased according to all the reports made by player moderators. This is a logical way: they have become too expensive for many to buy for real life gp. Most of the bought gp is used for leveling, buying certain useful items for pkin or such. Another proof is the change in jagex's attitudes to go for a bigger hunt against those who sell instead of those who buy.

 

 

 

If you want to look at it in a more theoretical way, just rememberize (or google) how demand usually affects to the rise of price. After that compare it to the progress of rare prices. You might see that during the years rare prices have grown a lot which has affected to their demand.

 

 

 

Also don't forget that most of the rs players are actually relatively young who don't have much real life money. How on earth would they actually invest on rares with that money? :-k

 

 

 

2nd claim: They create effectively a two-tiered class structure within the game

 

 

 

What I've seen, Jagex directs us into other direction. Most of the updates in last 2 years have either been targeted to newer players or made an opportunity to make more money if you have any skills.

 

Examples for these updates:

 

* Barrows = Doesn't require any high levels, can (and especially could) get a good number of money in no time.

 

* Construction = Drain away money from those who have a lot of it.

 

* Hunting = Red chinchompas and the way how you can work for a day with 0 profit and after that gain serious money with them.

 

* God wars, mith drags, etc...

 

 

 

The fact is that training and making money are now easier than they used to be. This opens the chances to lower the gab between the rich and the poor. Now percentually more people are able to make money and gain levels, which at least in my eyes affects positively to the gab.

 

 

 

I find it funny how you earlier estimated that rares play a really minimal role in the total value, yet you're preaching it would divide people into other groups. Bigger dividor is the time used to play and your own will.

 

 

 

3rd claim: The people trying to get rares develop a grossly unhealthy obsession with earning money, which then pervades their entire basis of gameplay. This also then spills over to others, directly and indirectly. Every time a change is made to the game, people freak out over whether it "reduces their net wealth".

 

 

 

This is another funny statement from you, at least after you had said "I'll play however I want within the rules of the game". Aren't people who want rares playing the game by the rules in a way they want? Which rule are they breaking? Don't try to pull out the RWT card here as it works even better with skillers.

 

 

 

Every bigger update makes people to react in some way. Remember the reactings when PC was ruined? Exactly, when people are losing either their normal ways to train, wealth, status or way of being, they are arguing. This happens in real life too, it's not any kind of an RS-only phenomenom.

 

 

 

4th claim With high-end staking gone, rares are now effectively the only reason for which anyone needs a ton of money in the game. The pursuit of this money is what leads to many abuses in the game, including scamming and RWT.

 

 

 

I found many mistakes from this. Lets see...

 

* Rares aren't the only reason to have money. Actually they weren't even before the update. Skilling still takes more money than any rare, I for example have burnt (lost, aka ending product price-raw material price) more on only 3 skills this year than I would have needed to buy a christmas cracker.

 

* Rares aren't the problem for RWT. The real problem for it are autoers and gold farmers.

 

* Scamming isn't only related to rares. Most of the scammers are there to gain easy money, but not as they'd be aiming for the "burger king" hat like you had stated it. This can be easily seen by looking at the structure of scamming: most of the efford is put on scams that aren't worth much. If these scammers were to go for rares, they'd put all that efford and time into something else. I also assume you're about to pull the keylogging card soon, so I'll answer to that too. In pretty much all online games some sort of "hacking" exists, even in games without discontinued items. As long as it can get any profit to the "hacker", it's done, no matter are there discontinueds or not.

 

 

 

5th claim: Because they've shown in the last month that they are tired of the money orientation in the game.

 

--

 

Has nothing to do with the GE.

 

 

 

In which way was this expressed? By remodifying dueling and giving us the biggest thing to boost trading since rs2+note trading?

 

 

 

The dueling arena was made to harm RWT. This can be easily seen by every post or a message made by Jagex. Also if they had wanted to affect to the money oriented RS, they would have made a lot larger update which would have affect to trading, dropping and even duying. An update like this destroyed one way to transfer big amounts of money from mains to mules (selling accounts) without any risks. After this the only real ways are to either suicide, drop or trade. The first 2 include risks of losing the money and the last one is pretty likely to cause you a perm ban.

 

 

 

However if Jagex had wanted to remove the money orientation, they wouldn't have launched an update, that the the supply and demand to skyrocket. It was a well known fact that those both factors would increase after the update due the fact that it was made so much easier. Would have been a huge surprise if Jagex hadn't thought of that when they designed a huge update like this. They may not be liked by everyone, but they for sure aren't idiots.

 

 

 

I also mentioned GE there as it's a clear sign that Jagex doesn't intend to at least fully remove the money oriented RS.

 

 

 

6th claim: Except that there is no problem and thus nothing to "eventually" deal with. - I think there is. And so do many other people.

 

 

 

Everyone who has any kind of deeper knowledge on economics and market structures on these boards disagree with you. We saw already during the panicing after duel arena update that most people don't have any clue what is happening out there. Please show me two people that either are something by default or got the ability to answer properly.

 

 

 

When you refer to "many people", you don't give us any real information. No names, nothing concrete, only a claim without anything to back on. You also haven't made it too clear what's the real problem. Your claimings have been crushed one by one, yet the number of proper answers are staying at the same: around zero.

 

 

 

Waiting for your reply. If you got more claims, go ahead.

[Duke_Freedom]

You don't know what you are talking about at all and simply wave away my arguements because of your lack of actual knowledge, which you even point out yourself this time in various sentences:

 

 

 

Most can never earn the kind of money it costs to get rares

 

There IS no inflation in the game EXCEPT for the rares.

 

I don't play other MMORPGs.

 

I don't care what class structures they have.

 

Utter nonsense.

 

 

 

As Hohto indirectly said already, you are completely blinded by your own opinion and simply ignore ALL the FACTS and actual economic theories that completely disagree with your arguements.

 

 

 

Yup. I'm done.

 

 

 

Edit: Nice post Hohto. You described every aspect in a very comprehensible way and I obviously agree with every single bit of it.

[qeltar]

 

As Hohto indirectly said already, you are completely blinded by your own opinion and simply ignore ALL the FACTS and actual economic theories that completely disagree with your arguements.

 

 

You haven't PROVIDED any facts and economic theories. All you've done is jump up and down screaming that you're an expert and you must be right. Your entire position boils down to "I like rares so leave them alone".

 

 

 

Not impressive, to say the least.

 

 

Yup. I'm done.

 

 

You never started. Chopping up my arguments into deliberately out-of-context sound bites is dishonest, and the sort of behavior I would expect from a cheat. Ignoring all of my points in favor of personal insults simply shows that you really have no valid arguments to make.

 

 

 

It seems you've gotten so used to your little cult of worshippers telling you how great you are that you expect everyone else to fall into line automatically. Sorry to disappoint you, but I don't do that routine. Especially when it becomes clear that the emperor here is buck naked.

 

 

 

Hohto, I'll reply to your longer post later on.

[snowager286]

Chopping up my arguments into deliberately out-of-context sound bites is dishonest, and ignoring all of my points in favor of personal insults simply shows that you really have no valid arguments to make.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bah! Stop using ad hominem attacks.... They really really get on my nerves...

 

 

 

As for the topic...

 

 

 

I doubt that Jagex is actually so annoyed with rares that they would go out of their way to get rid of them. Also, I thought most rares are being traded person to person rather then on the GE.

[Chippy_PK]

lol give it time they'll fix it

[meili]

Quote:

 

 

 

1.) Don't flame Fook.

 

 

 

2.) Hohto brought up some things because you made a personal attack on Duke.

 

 

 

3.) I see you are now using "money oriented" rather than "greed oriented." That's a good sign :D but as I have said before, all RS is greed/money oriented. All skills, including combat, is all about either getting materials or using materials. All that requires or produces gp. Jagex would have to take away the whole game to removed the money oriented aspects of it.

 

 

 

4.) Jagex have in recent years, after rares became so valuable, released their own rare items such as Godsword, dragon items, 3rd age, etc. They are not against rare items in any way, shape or form. If they didn't want the money oriented aspects of the game, they wouldn't have recently made rare drops from gwd because this could potentially lead to RWT. Godswords are worth more than santa hats, easter eggs and pumpkins, you know.

[llamster]

I'm going to have to agree with you, Qeltar. With rares, people are encouraged to accumulate vast sums of coins that are otherwise quite useless. As a result, they are not enjoying the actual game, but are obsessed with obtaining money.

[qeltar]

 

This is a logical way: they have become too expensive for many to buy for real life gp. Most of the bought gp is used for leveling, buying certain useful items for pkin or such.

 

 

I understand what you're saying, and yes, I'm sure the volume of rares transacted has gone down. But it is still there. Also, the price of mils seems to be decreasing, and as Jagex takes many of the more lucrative ways of earning gold out of the game, this gives more reason for dishonest players to take shortcuts.

 

 

Another proof is the change in jagex's attitudes to go for a bigger hunt against those who sell instead of those who buy.

 

 

I don't really see how that proves anything, sorry. It's just a more practical way of dealing with the issue, the same as how the police go after drug dealers more than buyers.

 

 

If you want to look at it in a more theoretical way, just rememberize (or google) how demand usually affects to the rise of price. After that compare it to the progress of rare prices. You might see that during the years rare prices have grown a lot which has affected to their demand.

 

 

Problem here: the normal laws of supply and demand don't apply to items like rares. They are luxury goods, purchased mainly for status. As such, they can have an inverted demand curve where they actually become more in demand as they become more expensive. This is called the Veblen effect.

 

 

Also don't forget that most of the rs players are actually relatively young who don't have much real life money. How on earth would they actually invest on rares with that money? :-k

 

 

That's a bit of a null argument, don't you think? I mean, there's a huge, booming business in gold sales, so clearly *someone* is buying it.

 

 

The fact is that training and making money are now easier than they used to be. This opens the chances to lower the gab between the rich and the poor. Now percentually more people are able to make money and gain levels, which at least in my eyes affects positively to the gab.

 

 

I don't think training becoming easier has anything to do with this issue whatsoever. The gap between people who can afford party hats and regular players is so wide that in many cases it would take players YEARS to bridge it.

 

 

 

Also remember that while skills have become easier to raise, most have also had nearly all of the money making potential wrung out of them. Some skills that you could make a decent profit at even a year ago are now small money losers. It's not a big deal for most players, but skilling to be able to earn a party hat is extremely difficult. The only real ways for most players to do it are merchanting, scamming or buying gold.

 

 

I find it funny how you earlier estimated that rares play a really minimal role in the total value, yet you're preaching it would divide people into other groups.

 

 

Like Duke did, you misunderstood what that point was; it was given in a different context.

 

 

Aren't people who want rares playing the game by the rules in a way they want?

 

 

Yes, I didn't say they were breaking any rules. I said the game would be improved if it were changed to remove this aspect from it. Just as the game was improved when wilderness luring was removed earlier this year -- and for much the same reason.

 

 

* Rares aren't the only reason to have money. Actually they weren't even before the update. Skilling still takes more money than any rare, I for example have burnt (lost, aka ending product price-raw material price) more on only 3 skills this year than I would have needed to buy a christmas cracker.

 

 

This is somewhat of a valid point, but really tangential to the issue. I never said rares were the *only* reason people buy money. Also, while it is *possible* to blow 100M+ raising skills, it isn't necessary. It IS necessary to blow 100M+ to get a rare. And most people do not know how to raise that kind of cash.

 

 

* Rares aren't the problem for RWT. The real problem for it are autoers and gold farmers.

 

 

Two sides of the same coin, really. I am talking about part of the reason why the autoers and gold farmers have customers. And please don't try to claim that people don't buy gold to get rares, because it's easy to find people trying to do exactly that.

 

 

* Scamming isn't only related to rares. Most of the scammers are there to gain easy money, but not as they'd be aiming for the "burger king" hat like you had stated it.

 

 

I've talked with people who have specifically admitted that the only reason they scam is to get enough money to buy rares. Because that's pretty much the only way they can get one. It's also common for people with rares to be targeted by scammers, lurers and whatnot.

 

 

This can be easily seen by looking at the structure of scamming: most of the efford is put on scams that aren't worth much. If these scammers were to go for rares, they'd put all that efford and time into something else.

 

 

Sorry, I don't understand what you mean by this.

 

 

In which way was this expressed? By remodifying dueling and giving us the biggest thing to boost trading since rs2+note trading?

 

 

Yes, in part.

 

 

The dueling arena was made to harm RWT.

 

 

Come on. You know as well as I do that they could have stopped all RWT in the duel arena with a cap that is 20 or even 50 times higher than what it is now. There's more to that update than just RWT. Either that or Jagex are complete idiots, and I refuse to believe that.

 

 

This can be easily seen by every post or a message made by Jagex.

 

 

Actually, I have seen at least one message from a J mod openly admitting being glad at staking being nuked because of the money issue. And I bet more feel the same way but are being told not to comment on it.

 

 

Also if they had wanted to affect to the money oriented RS, they would have made a lot larger update which would have affect to trading, dropping and even duying.

 

 

Those changes are likely on the way very soon.

 

 

However if Jagex had wanted to remove the money orientation, they wouldn't have launched an update, that the the supply and demand to skyrocket. It was a well known fact that those both factors would increase after the update due the fact that it was made so much easier. Would have been a huge surprise if Jagex hadn't thought of that when they designed a huge update like this. They may not be liked by everyone, but they for sure aren't idiots.

 

 

Supply has skyrocketed; demand has not. That's why the prices of most items are falling. At any rate, I think you've gone far afield here; I don't see what this has to do with anything. I never said that Jagex was going to stop all trading or take away money. I said that I think the company wants to return emphasis to playing the game and away from spending hours amassing wealth.

 

 

6th claim: Except that there is no problem and thus nothing to "eventually" deal with. - I think there is. And so do many other people.

 

 

 

Everyone who has any kind of deeper knowledge on economics and market structures on these boards disagree with you.

 

 

This has absolutely nothing to do with economics. It's simply a matter of policy on Jagex's part. They can remove rares tomorrow and the economy will be just fine. Or they can leave them and the economy will be just fine as well. The core issue is what they want their game to be like.

 

 

 

They took away the concept of tradeable rares because, in their own words, the "whole holiday-drop thing" had become "horribly wrong". They SHOULD have just bit the bullet and made all of the existing items untradeable at that time. Instead they didn't, and every year that they let the situation go uncorrected, the effects of that initial mistake continue to magnify.

 

 

We saw already during the panicing after duel arena update that most people don't have any clue what is happening out there. Please show me two people that either are something by default or got the ability to answer properly.

 

 

I don't understand what you mean by "two people that are something by default".

 

 

When you refer to "many people", you don't give us any real information. No names, nothing concrete, only a claim without anything to back on.

 

 

Correct. I'm not going to provide the names of people here without permission, nor do I intend to spend hours hunting down quotes from every person who has made a good argument in favor of removing rares. Just last night I was in a discussion with a very bright RSOF forum mod where I brought up this matter and he was in full agreement with me on it.

 

 

 

But as was pointed out earlier, counting up supporters doesn't really prove anything -- other than that there is no simple agreement on this issue.

[qeltar]

 

2.) Hohto brought up some things because you made a personal attack on Duke.

 

 

Hohto made a personal attack on me long before I said a word to Duke. First post, second page.

 

 

3.) I see you are now using "money oriented" rather than "greed oriented." That's a good sign :D but as I have said before, all RS is greed/money oriented. All skills, including combat, is all about either getting materials or using materials.

 

 

This comparison is really not valid at all. The truth is that you can get or earn all of the materials yourself that you need for every skill. There's no need for vast quantities of money, even if that money can make leveling easier.

 

 

 

The same is NOT the case with rares. The ONLY way to get them is to get huge amounts of money.

 

 

4.) Jagex have in recent years, after rares became so valuable, released their own rare items such as Godsword, dragon items, 3rd age, etc. They are not against rare items in any way, shape or form.

 

 

Again -- any player has at least the possibilty of getting these through hard work and some luck. Also, since they are not discontinued items, their prices will eventually fall, as has happened with every mundane piece of equipment in the game.

 

 

 

Neither of those is true of discontinued items.

[aznmidget448]

Umm... what if the item you want just happens to not be available? and when you sell the item, there happens to be a buyer? I mean, lets say your buying a certain item, well call it a dragon warhammer just so that noobs dont scream "omg x item is in demand you fat lard"... (of course now theyre gonna scream that d warhammers dont exist either. I am well aware of it, its just for the sake of an example). Supply is pretty low to vurtually nothing. There are tons of buyers. So you are a seller and put up the d warhammer and its instantly traded because supply is low and demand is high. Now lets say you were a buyer. there are many many buyers of the same item, so naturally while sellers get their deals fast, you might have to wait a bit. I think your theory is forgetting some facts.

 

 

 

Lol, I am too lazy to read past the first page because most of them will all be flames...

 

 

 

But a more realistic example is yew logs. So when I sell it a market price and it is bought immediately, is Jagex buying hundreds of them so that we can sell forever? NO! Other people are buying them to make a profit for themselves. Normally, there would be an equal balance between seller and buyer, however, in this case, the prices and demand of them are so high, that the suppliers aren't able to bring in enough. Therefore when selling, the sellers can sell immediately at almost 400gp and the buyers are sitting there, waiting for anyone to sell to them.

 

 

 

The same thing is happening with rares. Due to the limited amount, this is even worse because most people are buying santas to show off their wealth and holiday costumes. Once Christmas passes, I believe there will be a surplus in the sellers, causing the price to decrease and easier access for the buyers.

[meili]

This comparison is really not valid at all. The truth is that you can get or earn all of the materials yourself that you need for every skill. There's no need for vast quantities of money, even if that money can make leveling easier.

 

 

 

Hmmm yes you have a point, but I would say a very small one. Theoretically you could self-sufficiently do everything in RS without buying or selling but most people don't play it as a single player game but rather as a MMORPG. What's the point of raising everything alone when you have this great big online world full of other players?

 

 

 

The same is NOT the case with rares. The ONLY way to get them is to get huge amounts of money.

 

 

 

That is merely the invalid reasoning of scammers and newbies to the game. Perhaps they think so but long time and high leveled players know that is just not true in the slightest. Getting large amounts of money goes hand in hand with training and playing the game normally.

 

 

 

In your sig, don't you have a guide for getting 500k an hour at avianses?

 

 

 

You can rc enough to get rares, you can gather dbones, you can dk or gwd....and in fact you can simply play the game normally and still have enough to get rares.

 

 

 

I hardly play for gp but I still have got more than enough for rares. When Rs2 started I placed my bank in Rs1. In other words, I had nothing on RS2. Nothing! And yet I have made several millions completely legit *and* with absolutely no merchanting (in the sense of buying low, selling high).

 

 

 

If I can achieve so much then the hardcore players can certainly make more. :)

 

 

 

Again -- any player has at least the possibilty of getting these through hard work and some luck.

 

 

 

Then through hard work and luck, if they get a godsword they could sell that and then buy rares since as I have stated, many rares are worth less than GS.

 

 

 

Also, since they are not discontinued items, their prices will eventually fall, as has happened with every mundane piece of equipment in the game.

 

 

 

So? Jagex will just release another rare item, as they have been doing for quite some time now. My point is that Jagex now sees the need to have high level, expensive items, otherwise they wouldn't have made more of them.

 

 

 

I can only speculate but I would say jagex now realizes that players who have a goal such as to gain 100m to buy full drag/full 3rd age/GS/etc. will play longer, so they make more subscription money.

 

 

 

As for Hohto, I was referring to others things which you referred to as "hero worship." I don't wanna start it up again though.

[Althalus]

Yah, and in a years time the Grand Exchange will finally become self-aware and take over all of Runescape by shooting all the players with lasers.

[meili]

In 2002 there was a massive dupe, proably 10x the amount of party hats was put in the game by certain players who knew how to duplicate item ID's. Every item has a game ID.

 

 

 

Jagex did NOTHING in the 2 hours it was going on, and they didn't delete the p hats either.

 

 

 

 

Wait, that actually happened? i was on the guys site who did that around 2 years ago when i first started playing rs. Didnt know it was real...

 

 

 

Yes, it definitely happened. If you dig up the old news archives you will see it there as well.

[zubeedoo]

TBH I don't see why the idea of jagex using the GE to buy up rares is so ridiculous.

 

 

 

Back when I was last playing there were several discussions on how jagex could (theoretically) remove most of the rares from the game without giving a giant middle finger to the people who owned them, and the suggestion that popped up quite often was a shop that bought rares for a decent price, thereby removing them from the game.

 

 

 

I'm not going to say that the GE was created for this purpose, but is it really that hard to believe that while they were coding this someone might have said ''Hey, why don't we toss in a couple lines of code to help get rid of rares?''

 

 

 

Seriously, if jagex were to do something like that the GE would be the perfect place, specifically because people wouldn't know about it. They put a rare-buying store into eve and the prices of rares would skyrocket before anyone even sold a rare, specifically because people would think that their rares were getting rarer because of it. The genuine rarity of discontinued items plays a large part in their price, but the perceived rarity is even more important, if people think that rares are getting suddenly rarer then the market will react as though they are.

 

 

 

Now, no one here is trying to say that this is what jagex is doing, it's all hypothetical/theoretical, but come on, if you're gonna scream LOL JADEX CONSPIRACY at least back it up with something, because as far as I can see it's a perfectly reasonable, plausible theory with nothing really disproving it.

[Hell_Shadow]

zubeedoo, you put it exactly like I was thinking it. To me, Jagex took control of the prices. That isn't something that can be debated. Market forces decide price? Prove it. Yeah, they want to keep it fair. People have earned what they have and deserve the opportunity to get a return on their purchase. It isn't stealing the rare, it's buying it and not selling it into the market again. No one notices, and even if they did, the GE controls the price.

[Rsdude099]

Conspiracy theory? CONSPIRACY THEORY IN A FLIPPIN GAME? THIS IS NOT THE WATERGATE- PEOPLE FROM THE GOVERNMENT DID NOT BREAK INTO THE GRAND EXCHANGE!

 

 

 

*Calms down into a relative compression of relaxation*

[Makoto_the_Phoenix]

No, the Grand Exchange isn't a covert way to remove rares from the game. It doesn't take much more than a half an hour of sound and logical thinking and reason to come to that realization.

 

 

 

If you haven't invested said time in it, let me go ahead and share with you the fruit of my thinking.

 

 

 

First premise: They could literally do it at any time that they wanted to, without any notice. But they haven't. Someone here spoke briefly on the partyhat duplication scam that took place in '02. A lot of hats were duplicated, thus bringing their value down to near 300K (which I'd happily call 30M in today's game). While the culprits that were involved were banned, the items that they duplicated were never deleted. For an average player, it's impossible to tell one dragon chainbody apart from another, or one Godsword apart from another. For those that are familiar with databases, however, it'd become logically impossible if each item was the exact same. Even if they did have the exact same specifications of another item, they're only logical copies. That's because the items have a unique ID number associated with them, which [i assume] would come with a timestamp, trade history, and any other details and information that Jagex may deem necessary or useful.

 

 

 

[side-note: If you know nothing of how a database works, and you try to attack me on that premise, you're going to have to do your homework before you come out and play.]

 

 

 

Second premise: Jagex wanted us to have the rares. Sure, they blocked future rare trades from ever taking place (Ears, Scythe, et al), but they didn't go back and make any of these items untradable either. It's quite evident that Jagex isn't too shy about making certain items untradable (Payamaya Inn ticket, Doogle leaves, Palm leaves, Leaf-bladed spears, et al), and some of these items were being marketed off as being 'rare' or 'hard to find'. Well, partyhats and the like are rare, and hard to find, but they didn't bother making those untradable. (And yes, I've seen and heard of someone buying an Inn ticket for the price of half a small rare.)

 

 

 

Third premise: The recent updates to the game have shaken up a lot of people, so their judgment can't be said to be 100%. Not even close. It's sad, but true ÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Ãâ you doubt Jagex. This alone compromises your judgment. Couple that with the obvious 'scare-tactic' theory/conspiracy motif of this topic, and before you know it, you have dozens of paranoid players talking about the end of the game and how much money Jagex is going to lose this year. I refuse to make this any more long-winded than it should be, but you're only randomly clutching at straws if only to appease your confused (and disbelieving) logic at Jagex's recent motives. With that said, go soak your head or jump in a lake, or experience some cold and/or otherwise startling breeze come up your spine. You need an eye-opener.

 

 

 

[The next person to come up with a 'conspiracy theory' absolutely deserves a Spartan spear through them. I'm not kidding.]

[quitthegame]

To use a real world analogy, the size of the illicit drug market in western countries is less than 1% of GDP.

 

 

 

Sorry, your analogy is absurd.

 

 

 

Actually Duke, that's a pretty good analogy. Look at the similarities between illicit drugs and RWT. Both drug users and RWT's are stigmatized and ostracized. Both are usually illegal but have certain areas/markets that legalize them. Both are activities that are supported by moral arguments of personal liberty but have even more detractors with arguments that they have negative effects on society at large and lead to other categories of crime. Both have their price pushed up by their illegality, which actually increases the profit made by the lawbreakers. Really, it's a fantastic analogy, if you would just look at it objectively.

 

 

 

 

The game progresses, adapts and changes. These games are not called "persistent Virtual Worlds" for no reason. The game environment changes continously from the time it starts, its economy included. Discontinued items are no exception and over long periods of time they seem to track the inflation / money supply growth quite neatly. It is not an unfair advantage to keep up with the inflation.

 

 

 

I don't agree with this at all really. The stagnation of rare prices over the past year doesn't seem to me to accompany any change in inflation. The lowering of rare prices when construction came out is as easily explained by the increase in supply by people selling rares to pay for POH, as it is by deflation caused by a money sink. The massive increase in rare prices over the long term seems so likely to be largely due to bubble-type increases in perceived value + decrease in supply due to people quitting and people getting banned, that I would be surprised if those weren't more influential than inflation. I don't dispute that inflation has occurred, but to claim that inflation has tracked the price of rares neatly seems an unjustified claim. The scientific method is hypothesis, then test, then theory. You could make your inflationary data match the performance of rare prices by picking your assumptions properly. No matter how careful you were not to do that consciously, the human mind is well known to have a propensity to do that unconsciously. That is why the tests performed after the hypothesis are the telling tests.... and those tests didn't support your hypothesis, did they?

 

 

 

The final point I have to make, is that I'm disappointed in the replies to qeltar you and hohto have made in this thread. If someone makes a point, an honest philosophical debate consists of construing your opponents remarks in the best possible form. If, with your superior knowledge of RWT, you guys know more about why and what RWT's do, it's your responsibility to reinterpret qeltar's theory in the best possible light, using what you know about RWT. Instead, you guys jumped on one little aspect of his argument, about the purpose/goals of RWT buyers, pronounced he was wrong with evident joy, and then spent paragraph after paragraph going on and on about how he was going against the experts, and then insulting him for not debating properly. That's not a debate, that's propaganda, and I expected better from you two. Let's say only 1% of RWT buyers buy gold to get rares. Well, rares are really expensive, so that's still like 40% of RWT transaction volume. And what about RWT sellers, it's a well known fact that a lot of RWT sellers made a bunch of money on rares. Plug in sellers instead of buyers and his argument is basically resurrected. His argument had some other weak points, I don't think he even mentioned bots and RWT in comparison to rares and RWT, but I'm sure he's mentioned that in other threads. The point is, if you don't give someone the benefit of the doubt, than you're not debating, you're flaming. People leave stuff out in one thread that they included in another thread, or they make a claim too strong when a less strong claim still makes their main point work, to point out every little thing is just flaming them. At least when I flame someone, I acknowledge that I'm doing it.

 

 

 

 

 

edit: one more point... Instead of getting emotionally hurt by how some people think rares are bad for the game, try to understand how inevitable it is. Whatever is intensely valued is intensely hated, in life and in RS. The best things in life are inextricably linked with the greatest taboos, and it's not by accident. How many people think pking and staking are the only fun things in RS? How many people think pking and staking are not just not for them, but straight up wrong and immoral?

 

 

 

edit2: OK tbh I don't really agree with any of qeltars 4 points. but let me quote his very first post in this thread again

Because they've shown in the last month that they are tired of the money orientation in the game. And that will never end until these items are fixed once and for all.

 

 

 

If they do it, though, it won't be with silly conspiracy games on the GE. They will just exchange them for gold or make them untradeable or make a shop where they can be traded in.

 

 

 

One way or the other, they are eventually going to have to stop avoiding this problem and deal with it.

 

 

 

This post I do agree with. Jagex thinks that rares are a problem. This is because Jagex thinks RWT is a problem, and rares do contribute to RWT, undeniably so on the seller side. I highly doubt Jagex will make rares exchangeable for gold though, they will either make them untradeable or just further restrict player to player trading somehow.

 

 

 

So, to answer your question of why rares are a problem duke, rares are a problem because Jagex thinks they are a problem, and the recent and upcoming changes they are taking as part of their war against RWT, bots, merchants, rares, stakers, etc, are a problem to me. If it weren't for Jagex's crusade, then I would think rares were kinda silly but I wouldn't care much one way or the other, but Jagex's War on RWT is changing everything. Man, that analogy to illicit drugs is sounding better and better isn't it?

[zubeedoo]

Makoto, while you bring up some interesting points I'm afraid you're missing several very important things:

 

 

 

1) Jagex keep rares in the game not because they want to, but because they don't want people to get all mad and leave if they deleted them. They have stated in the past (and as you said concerning databases I will say about rares, do your HW before challenging me on this) that rares were never meant to become the trade items they are today, and that making them tradeable was a mistake, but they've also stated that it would not be fair to the players who worked to get these items if they removed them, this being the main reason for their choice to keep them.

 

 

 

2)As far as deleting party hats that had been duped, there are a few reasons why they didn't:

 

-They didn't want to waste the manpower needed to track them all down (we all know how they are with CS as it is...)

 

-Deleting the items would be effectively ripping off anyone who'd bought them, rather then punishing the people who did the actual dupes.

 

 

 

3)As to why they havn't made them untradeable, many people bought these with the intention of re-selling them. How would you like it if jagex went and made all of your items worthless? The only real value of rares (looks aside) is their worth in terms of GP. Take that away and you'd be robbing a LOT of players of the majority of their wealth.

 

 

 

4)Saying that doubting jagex is enough on it's own to compromise ones judgement is ridiculous. NOT doubting jagex would hinder your abilities to think rationally more then doubting them would...

[Duke_Freedom]

Both are usually illegal but have certain areas/markets that legalize them.

 

 

 

RWIT is not illegal, but against Jagex rules, which are of very little value in actual courts. People still don't get the difference.

 

 

 

but have even more detractors with arguments that they have negative effects on society at large

 

 

 

Except that RWIT has no negative effects on the society at large. People are just brainwashed to think it does. Read the more extensive article on RWIT that I wrote on that while actually considering it objectively, something you somehow seem to accuse me of.

 

 

 

and lead to other categories of crime.

 

 

 

Which is an argumentation fallacy if you use it to explain why RWIT is immoral.

 

 

 

Both have their price pushed up by their illegality

 

 

 

Actually, I doubt making RWIT within the rules will change much to the price of RS gold.

 

 

 

Really, it's a fantastic analogy

 

 

 

It is not. It means your defintion of "a game" and "real world" are being diluted so far that you can't even understand the difference between an act that is quite harmless (RWIT) versus one that actually leads to the death of many people (drugs).

 

 

 

I don't dispute that inflation has occurred, but to claim that inflation has tracked the price of rares neatly seems an unjustified claim. The scientific method is hypothesis, then test, then theory.

 

 

 

Again read another of my articles that I wrote here at tip.it. The amount of practical evidence is astounding, and I'm not going to argue about this point here.

 

 

 

I don't agree with this at all really. The stagnation of rare prices over the past year doesn't seem to me to accompany any change in inflation.

 

 

 

The stagnation certainly accompanies a change in inflation if you know where to look. I looked into it and found out population growth (which is related to inflation, perhaps in a bit more complex way) is significantly lower nowadays. Population growth and money supply growth are the main drivers behind the development of rare prices, as I have always claimed.

 

 

 

The lowering of rare prices when construction came out is as easily explained by the increase in supply by people selling rares to pay for POH, as it is by deflation caused by a money sink.

 

 

 

Nice thought. Except that rares prices didn't go down when construction came out... :lol: Do I have a suitable explanation for that? No.

 

 

 

Edit: Actually I do have a theory on that. Something along the lines of: while construction in general costs money and drains money, it also allowed for some massive and extremely profitable merchanting at the time, which may have allowed some formerly "poor" people to climb up the ladder at light speed, which in turn created an enormous new demand for rares.

 

 

 

The massive increase in rare prices over the long term seems so likely to be largely due to bubble-type increases

 

 

 

People don't say famous real life paintings that cost (tens of) millions or special golden coin that was sold for over $7.5 million are price bubbels.

 

 

 

decrease in supply due to people quitting and people getting banned

 

 

 

That factor has gotten far more important throughout the years, yes.

 

 

 

The final point I have to make, is that I'm disappointed in the replies to qeltar you and hohto have made in this thread.

 

 

 

I am not surprised you take it up for qeltar, because I can recall having similiar discussions with you, although I believe they were quite a bit more civilized. Perhaps look at all the personal flames and subtle offenses he makes throughout his posts, before you make such overhasted conclusions.

 

 

 

Instead, you guys jumped on one little aspect of his argument

 

 

 

Erm? I handled his arguements point by point and showed them all to be wrong.

 

 

 

not debating properly

 

 

 

Read his reaction on my arguements. All he comes up with is that he doesn't play other games, that I come up with false arguements, that he doesn't care about my arguements and that he thinks he can wave them away based on his limited practical experience and observations. No, indeed that is not debating properly at all. Thus there is no use in continuing such a "discussion".

 

 

 

Let's say only 1% of RWT buyers buy gold to get rares. Well, rares are really expensive, so that's still like 40% of RWT transaction volume.

 

 

 

Comming up with random numbers that you pulled out of the air doesn't help your point of view to get any credit at all. Who wanted to discuss on a scientific level again?

 

 

 

Whatever is intensely valued is intensely hated, in life and in RS.

 

 

 

Wow. You are more or less completely reiterating the whole point here, which is that there is no issue with rares at all, except of the jealousy / hate campagins that people run against them for whatever personal agenda they have.

 

 

 

OK tbh I don't really agree with any of qeltars 4 points.

 

 

 

...

 

 

 

Jagex thinks that rares are a problem. This is because Jagex thinks RWT is a problem, and rares do contribute to RWT, undeniably so on the seller side.

 

 

 

Another problem people continously seem to face is a huge lack of factual knowledge. Jagex has always hated rares inherently for what they represent, as can be figured out my favourite 2-3+ year old quote of Jagex:

 

 

 

We don't want this to just become an event whereby a few lucky players suddenly become ludicrously unfairly rich. Therefore new holiday items are non-tradeable and limited to one per player. But hopefully still alot of fun.

 

 

 

As you can see it is completely unrelated to RWT.

 

 

 

So, to answer your question of why rares are a problem duke, rares are a problem because Jagex thinks they are a problem, and the recent and upcoming changes they are taking as part of their war against RWT, bots, merchants, rares, stakers, etc, are a problem to me.

 

 

 

Jagex has left rares alone for the 5 years that I have been playing this game. I have no reason to think that they will now suddenly "solve" a "problem" that does not even "exist". Jagex long entered the phase "if we act like it does not exist, it does not disturb us anymore". All these rare-haters would do a great job if they assumed that ideology from Jagex.

 

 

 

If it weren't for Jagex's crusade, then I would think rares were kinda silly but I wouldn't care much one way or the other, but Jagex's War on RWT is changing everything. Man, that analogy to illicit drugs is sounding better and better isn't it?

 

 

 

Jagex are certainly on a holy crusade against RWT, I pointed that out on many threads already as well. Ofcourse, IMO it is based on wrong assumptions and invalid reasoning.

[FooK-A-Ji]

Qeltar how many p hats has ur clan high alched so far?

 

You claim you are trying to enlighten us all about the economy and rares, while you really are the one destroying it, if its true that you high alch p hats.

 

 

 

Although I seriously doubt you do.

 

Your panties are probably all up in a knot because you in the first place can't obtain rares.

 

 

 

one of your arguements is, that its an unfair advantage, seeing as some people only got p hats.

 

 

 

So whats your next problem... That people who played longer must have their accounts frozen for every1 else to catch up ? :roll:

[zubeedoo]

...

 

/whistles

 

Nice to see you're still here Duke :mrgreen: I should have known to check a rares argument for your posts :P

 

 

 

Anyway I've got to leave soon so I'm going to make this really short:

 

 

 

The only real reason rares and RMT go hand in hand is because once you start merchanting rares GP becomes a helluva lot easier to make. Really anything that allows large amounts of GP to be made eases RMT, but quite frankly until I see dragon drops being sold in armor stores at a fixed price I refuse to believe that jagex' hating rares is based purely on their contributations to RMT, it's pretty widely known that jagex hates rares just for being what they are, and I'd like to thank Duke for brining up that quote because I would have been way too lazy to do it myself :mrgreen:

[qeltar]

 

Theoretically you could self-sufficiently do everything in RS without buying or selling but most people don't play it as a single player game but rather as a MMORPG. What's the point of raising everything alone when you have this great big online world full of other players?

 

 

There are many players who prefer to be self-sufficient. I'm not one of them, but even so, it is at least an option. Nearly every "normal" item in the game is far more "reachable" than party hats, which can only be obtained by buying them.

 

 

Getting large amounts of money goes hand in hand with training and playing the game normally.

 

 

Not really. Most people, even those who have played for a long time, do not have the kind of money needed to get rares, unless they either bought them early on or they spent time merchanting.

 

 

In your sig, don't you have a guide for getting 500k an hour at avianses?

 

 

Yes.. though that was before the recent deflation. Not sure what it would be now.

 

 

 

What does a blue Burger King hat go for now, 500m? Suppose you have a responsible player who plays, say, 10 hours a week. Even at 500k/hr, it would take TWO YEARS to earn 500m. And that's if the player does nothing else.

 

 

 

Oh, and in two years the hat will probably be 600m+. Oopsie, another few months.

 

 

You can rc enough to get rares, you can gather dbones, you can dk or gwd....and in fact you can simply play the game normally and still have enough to get rares.

 

 

Only if you spend ridiculous amounts of time playing.

 

 

Then through hard work and luck, if they get a godsword they could sell that and then buy rares since as I have stated, many rares are worth less than GS.

 

 

I'm really talking about the hats, since that is what people are really after. The lesser rares aren't nearly as much of an issue.

 

 

So? Jagex will just release another rare item, as they have been doing for quite some time now.

 

 

And again, it will be rare at first, and its price will be high, but it will go down as people get more of them. Not comparable to discontinued items.

[qeltar]

 

No, the Grand Exchange isn't a covert way to remove rares from the game. It doesn't take much more than a half an hour of sound and logical thinking and reason to come to that realization.

 

 

I agree, but...

 

 

They could literally do it at any time that they wanted to, without any notice. But they haven't.

 

 

Stating that because they haven't done something yet that they won't in the future is a fallacy. I can guarantee you that three weeks ago high-end stakers would have said EXACTLY the same thing if anyone had suggested Jagex would kill off their preferred means of playing RuneScape.

 

 

Sure, they blocked future rare trades from ever taking place (Ears, Scythe, et al), but they didn't go back and make any of these items untradable either.

 

 

Same fallacy as above.

 

 

It's sad, but true ÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Ãâ you doubt Jagex. This alone compromises your judgment.

 

 

You know, at first I laughed when I read this.. but when I thought about it, I realized that it is far more disturbing than amusing.

 

 

 

I don't suppose it ever occurred to you that your blind faith in Jagex compromises *your* judgment?

 

 

 

It's really sad to see how many people look up to Jagex with a reverence that should be reserved for a parent, a respected teacher, or a kind clergy member.

 

 

 

Jagex is not your buddy, not your best friend, and not your priest. It is a corporation -- a large corporation now -- and its primary interest is in making lots and lots of money. That's not to damn them of course; there's nothing wrong with making money. But anyone who deals with a big company SHOULD treat the company with a healthy dose of skepticism, especially when it has a past history of making dubious moves with little openness.

 

 

 

Of course, I know why most people here don't: they are young and naive, and think that Jagex really "cares" about them and is looking out for their best interests. This fades with age and experience, I assure you.

 

 

With that said, go soak your head or jump in a lake, or experience some cold and/or otherwise startling breeze come up your spine. You need an eye-opener.

 

 

Childish and silly.

 

 

 

Jagex themselves have given me all the eye-openers I needed this year with moves like their age 9-12 handbook and trying to legalize luring.

 

 

 

P.S. Fook-a-Ji: There there, son. Don't fret. One day you'll grow up, and then you too might be able to discuss the big boy subjects in a productive manner. :D