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What's With This Crash?


My_Eggs

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Some items haven't yet recovered like V Skirt and zs but whats with the fury? Onyx still crashing or what?

Fury is crashing because uncut onyxes crashed. All "anti-junk" really consists of is rare items that are pushed way beyond the boundaries of the GE in "price bubbles." Like in real life, all bubbles will eventually pop sooner or later, and the items people were speculating in consequently crash very hard.

 

Don't worry though, unless Jagex makes it easier to obtain onyx gems, all onyx products will eventually rebound. They're too sought-after and rare not to.

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Please tell me how you make 10% profit flipping, lol.

That was daily, so that would be two-three flips a day.

How dare you not credit me in this! Back on topic; I think demand has also changed on a lot of items, combined with the annual summer crash, it has caused a sort of.. recession. Especially with the over inflated prices we had before...

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I'm not entirely certain; however, I think it's because school is about to start for some players who happen to be rich. Usually, before school starts, players dump their items, sell them, until they return to play during vacation.

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Factors:

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There may be some factors but this is without a doubt the majority of the problem. People are selling to cash in so they can play all week next week trying to buy as many TT items as they can. Then sit on them for a few days, weeks, month untill they start to 'stabalize' at a highpoint. Then they will crash as demand goes down, sure some if they are really good and super rare may stay really expensive, but I feel most the new items will go up up up, then down down, and settle.

 

No matter what happens, what is happening this week is a sell off of current investments and items people do not 'need' so they can invest in new TT items.

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Not sure if it's been mentioned before, but another big part of the crash might be the fact that Chaotic Rapiers/Longs, being the best weapons around, are creating giant moneysinks? For people who only play long enough to get enough tokens to buy it, it takes 2m out of the game every time it needs to be recharged.

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Not sure if it's been mentioned before, but another big part of the crash might be the fact that Chaotic Rapiers/Longs, being the best weapons around, are creating giant moneysinks? For people who only play long enough to get enough tokens to buy it, it takes 2m out of the game every time it needs to be recharged.

 

2 mill every 10 hours for very, very high level players is nothing.

O.O

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That depends on whether or not the high-level players are generating lots of Gold Pieces, or just lots of items valued at high prices. They may not personally be affected since they can sell their drops, but it would be reducing the total amount of gold pieces in circulation.

 

A Dragon Visage it not equivalent to its G.E. Value, nor is any gold created when it is sold to another player. The only way it would add currency to the economy would be to alch or loot/coinshare it.

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It is a cash equivalent though, since its liquidity is so high (all it takes to convert it into gold is a teleport to the Grand Exchange and putting it in there).

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It is a cash equivalent though, since its liquidity is so high (all it takes to convert it into gold is a teleport to the Grand Exchange and putting it in there).

 

Only for that player. That gold he's getting isn't coming from an NPC, it's been given by the person making the purchase, with gp that was already in the game.

 

That's a very important thing to remember; a person can increase his wealth, even though he's decreasing the total amount of gold pieces in the economy (and gold pieces are how people express their demand for an item, and demand is one of the determining factors on price, the other being supply).

 

Likewise, a person can decrease his own wealth, while still increasing the amount of gold pieces in the economy; example: Alchemy and High Alchemy.

--

 

To better illustrate what I mean, let's say that in the entirety of runescape there are 100 people, each with 10m in gold pieces (not in total worth, but in actual gold pieces). That means that the total number of coins in the economy is 1b coins.

 

One of these players manages to get a rare item valued at 8m by the economy. He also expended 2m gp due to needing to recharge his weapon.

 

1. Upon spending that gold, it leaves the economy, and the total amount of coins in the economy is 1998m coins

2. Despite one player now having 16m in coins and another player having only 2m, the total number of coins in the economy has decreased overall.

---

 

So, to summarize;

 

The amount of gp in the game increases only if the transactions being performed increase the number of gold pieces that can be possibly spent. A transaction with another player does not do this. An item drop does not do this. A gp drop does do this. High Alching does do this. Selling items to npc shops does do this.

 

You are not "converting something into gold" by trading with another player; you're exchanging your item for their gold. No gold has been created or destroyed in this transaction.

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I think you are right with the idea of the new treasure trails, but in all honesty, its not like a monster drop, trail items are honest to goodness hard to get. You have to get lucky to get a trail, then get lucky to get the item. Even with the new item every time promise, it will most likely be bob the jagex cat shirts and purple sweets most of the time.

 

I predict prices will sharply sky rocket once people discover that the item is just plain hard to get. People who get a piece most likely won't even sell it, but rather will use it, keep that in mind. So people will buy thier items back quickly hoping not to lose money, and prices will quickly go up again, and then very very slowly fall over time to a point very few of us can take advantage of it. Especially since it will be from a level 4 clue....so it will be so close to impossible to get, the price on it will be a joke it will be so high. Like over 9000!!!! high.(aka higher than 3rd age 2 times over)

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It is a cash equivalent though, since its liquidity is so high (all it takes to convert it into gold is a teleport to the Grand Exchange and putting it in there).

 

Only for that player. That gold he's getting isn't coming from an NPC, it's been given by the person making the purchase, with gp that was already in the game.

 

That's a very important thing to remember; a person can increase his wealth, even though he's decreasing the total amount of gold pieces in the economy (and gold pieces are how people express their demand for an item, and demand is one of the determining factors on price, the other being supply).

 

Likewise, a person can decrease his own wealth, while still increasing the amount of gold pieces in the economy; example: Alchemy and High Alchemy.

--

 

To better illustrate what I mean, let's say that in the entirety of runescape there are 100 people, each with 10m in gold pieces (not in total worth, but in actual gold pieces). That means that the total number of coins in the economy is 1b coins.

 

One of these players manages to get a rare item valued at 8m by the economy. He also expended 2m gp due to needing to recharge his weapon.

 

1. Upon spending that gold, it leaves the economy, and the total amount of coins in the economy is 1998m coins

2. Despite one player now having 16m in coins and another player having only 2m, the total number of coins in the economy has decreased overall.

---

 

So, to summarize;

 

The amount of gp in the game increases only if the transactions being performed increase the number of gold pieces that can be possibly spent. A transaction with another player does not do this. An item drop does not do this. A gp drop does do this. High Alching does do this. Selling items to npc shops does do this.

 

You are not "converting something into gold" by trading with another player; you're exchanging your item for their gold. No gold has been created or destroyed in this transaction.

Alright, I see what you meant now.

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That depends on whether or not the high-level players are generating lots of Gold Pieces, or just lots of items valued at high prices. They may not personally be affected since they can sell their drops, but it would be reducing the total amount of gold pieces in circulation.

 

Theres not enough high level players for it to make a significant difference.

 

Theres what, 8000-9000 people with over 80 dungeoneering, many of which are F2p, level 3 skillers, low levels, or otherwise cant use the weapon, many have gotten previous awards like arcane streams, which means that you need even more tokens above 80 to get the chaotic weapon, many may have also lost there weapon. And even then, its only 2 mill for every 10 hours, which is a pretty darn long time.

 

Compare this to PVP drops, theres hundreds of people dieing in PVP worlds every day, generating money at a large sum. Same as alching, alching is still an immensely popular method of training magic and it generates LOTS of cash.

O.O

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Royal Crowns crashed as well, so now's the time to get one.

Uh... in two weeks when they're 500k is the time to get them if you actually think they look good. They will never have a street price again.

 

Gl getting one for that price. :P

 

Merchants will never let it drop that low.

 

Unless kingly imps cost as much as d imps, you will never see crowns at 500k.

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Gl getting one for that price. :P

 

Merchants will never let it drop that low.

 

Unless kingly imps cost as much as d imps, you will never see crowns at 500k.

Time to go horribly off topic.

 

First off: I'll give you the benefit of the doubt that you have little understanding of the street/junk underground economy in runescape and aren't being intentionally thick. "Merchants" aren't some superpowered illuminati type group that have arbitrary control over prices in runescape. They have limited ability to manipulate. Easter eggs are much more rare than crowns are, and not even they can be bought out anymore.

 

Secondly: Kinglies were only worth 2.5m because you COULD get a crown which had 50m street from them. People were willing to eat the huge losses to gain the street. Since crowns no longer have street, they have been dropping since the loot you get from kinglies is only worth 100-500k, except for a few items like Dragon 2H, uncut onyx, and the overpriced crown. You can see the crash on the kinglies here:

[hide]3072i_graphimg3.gif?id=15517&scale=0[/hide]

 

The last piece of evidence I have here is the prices of the other royal items which are all equally common from kinglies. I'll give crown that it looks a hell of a lot better than most of the other royal items, and therefore I believe it will be a bit more expensive.

royalprices.png

 

Expect royal crown to have a graph like royal robes had after they crashed:

3072i_graphimg3.gif?id=15503&scale=2

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Royal Crowns crashed as well, so now's the time to get one.

Uh... in two weeks when they're 500k is the time to get them if you actually think they look good. They will never have a street price again.

 

Gl getting one for that price. :P

 

Merchants will never let it drop that low.

 

Unless kingly imps cost as much as d imps, you will never see crowns at 500k.

 

I remember the last time that new TT items were added and Top Hats went up to 4.5M. When they finally crashed they never went back up.

 

Crowns aren't all that rare to begin with, and every single day they get less rare.

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