RuneScape Research Group

[CookMePlox]

I'm creating a project to discover some of RuneScape's deepest secrets regarding gameplay. After watching various projects similar to this fail due to lack of interest, I think it's time for all of the similarly-minded people to work together to find answers.

 

The RuneScape Research Group will be a collaboration of many people to figure out how certain things in RuneScape work. These include:

Hit accuracy - What is your chance of hitting a monster?

Dungeoneering base experience - How is it calculated?

Burn percentage - What is your chance of burning food based on your Cooking level?

What is your chance of getting a fish/ore/log based on your level and equipment?

 

Finding out the answers to these questions (and more_ could be tremendously helpful to RuneScape players, and that's why I'm asking for your help in figuring them out.

 

To do this, we will need lots and lots of data. Even for simple projects (such as the food burning), there needs to be large amounts of information for each level. After sufficient data has been collected, we will analyze is and publish findings. Hopefully this information can be of great help to players.

 

This is a project that is great in scope and will be quite long-term. If you are interested in helping out by collecting data, please say so here.

 

Thank you for reading.

[Bangin_Blonde]

*yawn* -.-

[Grimy_Bunyip]

*yawn* -.-

*smack*

[Bangin_Blonde]

*yawn* -.-

*smack*

 

"wha... wuzgoinon? Somebody was talking about researching something and it made me nod off. :blink:

[FooK-A-Ji]

 

 

 

Hit accuracy - What is your chance of hitting a monster?

 

 

Its not a big secret.

 

The RS computer takes into account the item and stats you have and creates an imaginative die (dice). The higher your stats, the more sides the die contains. Each side represents a number. The die is rolled before every attack you make and a number comes out which you see in your game interface.

 

So the higher your stats, the more possibilites you have of hitting a high number, although it is not guaranteed that you will roll a high number every time, which we all experienced in the past when we hit 0's multiple times.

 

I made it very simplistic so I hope it explains it for you.

---

 

The same rule applies for many skills, such as cooking, fishing and mining which are mentioned above. The higher your skill, the more sides the die has, increasing your chance of attaining the item you are working for.

 

Example:

You are 55 mining and you mine mithril ore. The die contains 55 sides, so the chances are 1:55 for the die to land on 55 enabling you to attain the ore from the rock. Although I'm 100% sure that Jagex has altered this formula increasing your chances drastically with regards to mining, fishing, woodcutting etc. Perhaps by dividing by 2 or 3 making your chances as a level 55 miner 1:22.5 or 1:18, which adds up very well. Seeing as its still a pain mining mithril as level 55 and it first gets easy around level 70.

 

As for cooking the same rule applies, yet Jagex have set up barriers very cleverly allowing one to never burn a food of a certain level once you pass a certain level. For instance I believe raw meat doesnt get burnt after level 16, and swordfish stop burning after level 87, correct me if I'm wrong.

 

 

All in all Runescape is a game of chance and odds, and you can get the odds in your favor by levelling up.

 

I can't answer your question about dungeoneering, as I haven't been ingame active for several years now, but its all numbers and dice bro!

[CookMePlox]

 

 

 

Hit accuracy - What is your chance of hitting a monster?

 

 

Its not a big secret.

 

The RS computer takes into account the item and stats you have and creates an imaginative die (dice). The higher your stats, the more sides the die contains. Each side represents a number. The die is rolled before every attack you make and a number comes out which you see in your game interface.

 

So the higher your stats, the more possibilites you have of hitting a high number, although it is not guaranteed that you will roll a high number every time, which we all experienced in the past when we hit 0's multiple times.

 

I made it very simplistic so I hope it explains it for you.

I realize the anecdote for it, but I'd like for us to get some concrete numbers, so we can quite literally calculate your chance of hitting.

[FirenLazah]

Dont we like, know all of this stuff already?

[CookMePlox]

Dont we like, know all of this stuff already?

If we do, I'd love to see it. I've searched a lot and I've found nothing definitive.

[Bangin_Blonde]

Dont we like, know all of this stuff already?

 

Pretty much. He really wants to get to the really nitty gritty numbers and be all anal about it. And not the good kind of anal.

[CookMePlox]

Dont we like, know all of this stuff already?

 

Pretty much. He really wants to get to the really nitty gritty numbers and be all anal about it. And not the good kind of anal.

I'm sorry, but why are you being so annoying about this?

[stonewall337]

Sorry...but all of that has already been done.

[CookMePlox]

Sorry...but all of that has already been done.

If you can link me to a correct formula for hit accuracy, I'd love to see it. The same for burn percentage and the other things.

[PereGrin]

to the OP:

 

1. Find the post by Grimy Bunyip.

 

2. Click his sig

 

3. ????

 

4. Everything you are thinking has already been done.

[FooK-A-Ji]

 

 

 

Hit accuracy - What is your chance of hitting a monster?

 

 

Its not a big secret.

 

The RS computer takes into account the item and stats you have and creates an imaginative die (dice). The higher your stats, the more sides the die contains. Each side represents a number. The die is rolled before every attack you make and a number comes out which you see in your game interface.

 

So the higher your stats, the more possibilites you have of hitting a high number, although it is not guaranteed that you will roll a high number every time, which we all experienced in the past when we hit 0's multiple times.

 

I made it very simplistic so I hope it explains it for you.

I realize the anecdote for it, but I'd like for us to get some concrete numbers, so we can quite literally calculate your chance of hitting.

 

If you know your item stats and character stats you already know how many sides your die contains.

 

But it seems to me like you are asking for something not possible, that being wanting to know what number the die will land on. If Jagex' program is as advanced as it should be, the computer itself will not know it until it starts rolling for the next hit.

[ghjkl]

How can we calculate the chance of hitting?

Do we have the same hit chance on a chicken compared to corp?

Please, there is no such thing as an accuracy formula when you know nothing about the monster you are hitting. The accuracy formula requires 2 numbers, your attack value and the defense value of the thing you are attacking. Do you want to find out the defense value of every monster?

Dungeoneering base exp?

Who cares dungeoneering base xp has been proven to be only related to the size of the dungeon and the floor you are on, so I don't see how knowing the formula will give any benefit. No matter what you do, you can't change the base exp you can get from a dungeon so finding out the formula makes no difference.

Burn rate?

Everyone should make wines for cooking anyway, or just cook fish that you don't burn anymore, so there's no point for that.

Chance of getting ore/log/fish?

We already have exp/hr rates, why do we need the chance? Just makes it more complicated.

[FirenLazah]

In this thread: Figuring out runescapes "formulas" is equal to figuring out the most complicated scientific abnormalities this world has.

[CookMePlox]

to the OP:

 

1. Find the post by Grimy Bunyip.

 

2. Click his sig

 

3. ????

 

4. Everything you are thinking has already been done.

Grimy has information on two of the four things I mentioned, although all of them are estimates as far as I can see.

 

 

 

 

Hit accuracy - What is your chance of hitting a monster?

 

 

Its not a big secret.

 

The RS computer takes into account the item and stats you have and creates an imaginative die (dice). The higher your stats, the more sides the die contains. Each side represents a number. The die is rolled before every attack you make and a number comes out which you see in your game interface.

 

So the higher your stats, the more possibilites you have of hitting a high number, although it is not guaranteed that you will roll a high number every time, which we all experienced in the past when we hit 0's multiple times.

 

I made it very simplistic so I hope it explains it for you.

I realize the anecdote for it, but I'd like for us to get some concrete numbers, so we can quite literally calculate your chance of hitting.

 

If you know your item stats and character stats you already know how many sides your die contains.

 

But it seems to me like you are asking for something not possible, that being wanting to know what number the die will land on. If Jagex' program is as advanced as it should be, the computer itself will not know it until it starts rolling for the next hit.

I'm not asking to know exactly what my next hit is. I know that's impossible. I'm trying to find out what my chance is of hitting based on my attack level/bonuses, and my opponent's defence level/bonuses. For now I am not concerned with the actual value of the hit (which from what I can tell is uniformly distributed from 0 to your maximum hit.)

How can we calculate the chance of hitting?

Do we have the same hit chance on a chicken compared to corp?

Please, there is no such thing as an accuracy formula when you know nothing about the monster you are hitting. The accuracy formula requires 2 numbers, your attack value and the defense value of the thing you are attacking. Do you want to find out the defense value of every monster?

No, we do not have the same chance on a chicken versus Corp. However, we can include the opponent's defence levels and bonuses. For now, the way to calculate that is to fight other players, whose defence values are known. If we can deduce a formula, we could theoretically find the defence values of monsters.

Dungeoneering base exp?

Who cares dungeoneering base xp has been proven to be only related to the size of the dungeon and the floor you are on, so I don't see how knowing the formula will give any benefit. No matter what you do, you can't change the base exp you can get from a dungeon so finding out the formula makes no difference.

The base xp rates, from what I've heard, fluctuate in small amounts. What causes these fluctuations?

Burn rate?

Everyone should make wines for cooking anyway, or just cook fish that you don't burn anymore, so there's no point for that.

That's not true, and I would say it's quite important to find out.

Chance of getting ore/log/fish?

We already have exp/hr rates, why do we need the chance? Just makes it more complicated.

Because we can get more accurate rates, and we can also find how the rates change based on your woodcutting/mining/fishing level.

 

 

In this thread: Figuring out runescapes "formulas" is equal to figuring out the most complicated scientific abnormalities this world has.

Not really. The world is governed by laws much more complicated than we could ever imagine. RuneScape is just a program based on numbers. In the case of the things I'm talking about, there are probably true formulas that are used in the game engine.

[BeNiceOk]

I'm not asking to know exactly what my next hit is. I know that's impossible. I'm trying to find out what my chance is of hitting based on my attack level/bonuses, and my opponent's defence level/bonuses. For now I am not concerned with the actual value of the hit (which from what I can tell is uniformly distributed from 0 to your maximum hit.)

 

The one problem I could see coming up in generating such a formula is the lack of ability to see how each value is weighted in addition to other outside variables that we may not even be able to account for.

 

I took a beginners programming class for school and one of the starting programs we created was a random number generator that used the computers clock system to produce a random number pattern. The variables may not be limited to just the stats you see, and because you may not ever be able to identify all the variables, creating a equation to determine accuracy based on only what you see is likely to be inaccurate. Using my example, at :05 seconds a weapon could have a dice which only goes to 200, while at :15 seconds it uses a different dice that might go up to 400.

 

In other words, unless Jagex specifically tells you all the variables in the accuracy equation, and I would bet there are more than just equipment and stats, then trying to generate an equation from it from personal data would be impossible.

[green9090]

Protip: we already know the accuracy formula. I'm surprised there are so many people unaware of this. Anyone have a link to the formula? I don't have one handy at the moment.

[Grimy_Bunyip]

I don't get why so many people are shooting this down.

If you're not the one doing the research, what do you have to lose from someone else doing it?

If something good comes out of it, you will only benefit from it after all.

 

We already have exp/hr rates, why do we need the chance? Just makes it more complicated.

Nothing wrong with some initiative.

 

I'm not asking to know exactly what my next hit is. I know that's impossible. I'm trying to find out what my chance is of hitting based on my attack level/bonuses, and my opponent's defence level/bonuses. For now I am not concerned with the actual value of the hit (which from what I can tell is uniformly distributed from 0 to your maximum hit.)

 

The one problem I could see coming up in generating such a formula is the lack of ability to see how each value is weighted in addition to other outside variables that we may not even be able to account for.

 

I took a beginners programming class for school and one of the starting programs we created was a random number generator that used the computers clock system to produce a random number pattern. The variables may not be limited to just the stats you see, and because you may not ever be able to identify all the variables, creating a equation to determine accuracy based on only what you see is likely to be inaccurate. Using my example, at :05 seconds a weapon could have a dice which only goes to 200, while at :15 seconds it uses a different dice that might go up to 400.

 

In other words, unless Jagex specifically tells you all the variables in the accuracy equation, and I would bet there are more than just equipment and stats, then trying to generate an equation from it from personal data would be impossible.

Can't we just assume that it's reasonably random?

It's not like rs has many (if any) players who are capable of implement foreknowledge of a random number generators to their advantage.

 

Protip: we already know the accuracy formula. I'm surprised there are so many people unaware of this. Anyone have a link to the formula? I don't have one handy at the moment.

we do?

[CookMePlox]

Protip: we already know the accuracy formula. I'm surprised there are so many people unaware of this. Anyone have a link to the formula? I don't have one handy at the moment.

There was one on RuneScape Wiki that I actually removed because it was inaccurate for negative and zero bonuses. Other than that, I haven't found any formulas that anyone is putting out more than a hypothesis.

[green9090]

Yeah. I don't have the numbers on me, but it involves taking the max hit formula and adjusting it. Rather than a max hit, you have a max accuracy roll determined by your attack level and equipment bonus, and a max defense roll from defense level and equipment bonus. Prayers and potions are added same way it works in the strength formula. Higher roll wins. It predicts PvP accuracy very well, but is tough to use on monsters because we don't know their defense levels. It's extremely likely to be accurate, because why would Jagex make up different formulas for max hit and accuracy when they could just use the same one?

 

One useful thing we could do, I suppose, is use the formula with known attack bonuses with various attack styles and find every monster's effective defense level against each attack style based on the hit percentage.

[Grimy_Bunyip]

Yeah. I don't have the numbers on me, but it involves taking the max hit formula and adjusting it. Rather than a max hit, you have a max accuracy roll determined by your attack level and equipment bonus, and a max defense roll from defense level and equipment bonus. Prayers and potions are added same way it works in the strength formula. Higher roll wins. It predicts PvP accuracy very well, but is tough to use on monsters because we don't know their defense levels. It's extremely likely to be accurate, because why would Jagex make up different formulas for max hit and accuracy when they could just use the same one?

 

One useful thing we could do, I suppose, is use the formula with known attack bonuses with various attack styles and find every monster's effective defense level against each attack style based on the hit percentage.

yeah, that's the one I use. It's not 100% confirmed though, and it has some details that have yet to be worked out.

Like the resolution of the accuracy/defense rolls.

 

research is needed to finish that formula.

[green9090]

I'd assume the resolution is the same as hits, but yeah, that is a small problem. Hard to test though.

 

As for it not being confirmed, I'd have to see some pretty distinct data showing very different results before I'd be convinced there's a problem with the formula. It's too much of a coincidence for the exact some formula used for max hit to so closely fit the data for accuracy.

[Grimy_Bunyip]

I'd assume the resolution is the same as hits, but yeah, that is a small problem. Hard to test though.

 

As for it not being confirmed, I'd have to see some pretty distinct data showing very different results before I'd be convinced there's a problem with the formula. It's too much of a coincidence for the exact some formula used for max hit to so closely fit the data for accuracy.

well, hits used to be 10x less resolution than it is now.

How do we know if jagex updated the hits resolution to 10x when they went from hitpoints -> constitution?

Jagex went back to the Jad vs Rooster article and changed it after the update, but they half assed the job so that actually doesn't tell us anything.

(they just multiplied all damage and lifepoints by 10 instead of redoing the math, since the math actually did change)

 

the test is rather simple though.

At sufficiently low attack/defense levels it should be possible to set it up so that a certain situation has 25% accuracy at 1x and the other has 75% accuracy at 10x resolution. (or something like that)

Just go to dust devils on pvp worlds, drain your stats, wear the right gear, and kick each other.

 

Point is, research is important, and far from impossible to do.

It's just a matter of finding the right people, who have enough time.

By all means it doesn't hurt anybody to do research. I don't understand why there's so much resistance.