"However, yesterday's drop proves that Party Hats are not going to crash (for the time being)"

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

"Maybe the economy is actually not as bad as many make it out to be"

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

"the entire Rare Market is completely healthy, and is not in for another recession"

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The way I see it, he's trying to get people to regain their trust in the party hats economy, which will end up in a serious raise in the demand of the phat, thus making them increase in price. And why am I certain r2 will be there with his army of hats, ready to make cash?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If anything this post is promoting Small Rares, not Party Hats. Try actually reading it before making these stupid comments.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Well, if you actually read mine, you'd find out the quotes I took out points toward the fact that you're trying to reassure buyers for party hats, and as far as I know, you're in merchanting phats mostly. It's odd how the main idea behind that post would contribute to making you even richer with your army of banked party hats, isn't it?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I give it to you, you're helpful toward other players and those posts you make inform the other players, which is all to your honor. However, your posts, oddly enough, always try to influence the economy your way.

 

 

"However, yesterday's drop proves that Party Hats are not going to crash (for the time being)"

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

"Maybe the economy is actually not as bad as many make it out to be"

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

"the entire Rare Market is completely healthy, and is not in for another recession"

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The way I see it, he's trying to get people to regain their trust in the party hats economy, which will end up in a serious raise in the demand of the phat, thus making them increase in price. And why am I certain r2 will be there with his army of hats, ready to make cash?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If anything this post is promoting Small Rares, not Party Hats. Try actually reading it before making these stupid comments.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Well, if you actually read mine, you'd find out the quotes I took out points toward the fact that you're trying to reassure buyers for party hats, and as far as I know, you're in merchanting phats mostly. It's odd how the main idea behind that post would contribute to making you even richer with your army of banked party hats, isn't it?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I give it to you, you're helpful toward other players and those posts you make inform the other players, which is all to your honor. However, your posts, oddly enough, always try to influence the economy your way.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But is there really a problem with it if he is? I mean wouldnt you if you had "an army of phats in your bank" lets not be hypocritcal here.

When I read the title I thought there was a p-hat drop party lol :oops:

 

 

 

Rofl, same here.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Saw you last night R2. Ooo

 

Imo low rares are relatively underpriced, especially now phats went up so much in the past 3 months.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It seems pretty ridiculous that you can get 30 Santas for a Blue Phat

 

 

 

It would be interesting to see what number of Santa Hat's there are in the game compared to Blue partyhats. I wouldn't be surprised if there were over 20x more Santa Hats.

very educational, i enjoyed reading it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Have any idea WHY they rose in such a small space of time?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Most likely a result of people cashing out their masks and santa's and moving that cash in the only other wearable rare available: phats. The point is: it's very possible that the same people will do the same thing again, but then the other way around.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

you'd find out the quotes I took out points toward the fact that you're trying to reassure buyers for party hats

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

They were, yes. But even I have to agree that it's a sign of a healthy market when the prices crash ~20% on one night, then not continue to drop the days after and even reestablish and go back up 10%. It shows there's resistance at lower prices, which means that the current prices aren't too unrealistic.

This was definitely the year for rares. Santas went from 300k to 6m, then back to 5.5m and then eventaully down to 4m.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Purples this time last year were 14m, experiencing a TRIPLE in their price over the course of a year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Masks sets have gone from 3-4m in January to 4x or even 5x that much.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The introduction of Abyssal Whips had many high lvl players selling off some of their hats and other rares to get one.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Kalphite Queen increasing in difficulty made the Dragon Chain shoot up in price from its previous 20m to 30m, although it decreased to 20-23m with the introduction of Verac's. Still, the price increase had many players selling their rares to buy a Chain.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

When Barrows was released, A whole set of all the 6 brother's Armors could cost you upwards of 70m, which also had players selling their rares.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Easter Eggs and Pumpkins .. well ...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Since you can't wear them, and thus can't show them off, the only people who really buy them are those who want a completed set of rares, so the prices didn't increase much during this year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Everything else though went up MASSIVELY in price.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

wasnt this latest drop the very day that infinity robes were released ?

Most likely a result of people cashing out their masks and santa's and moving that cash in the only other wearable rare available: phats. The point is: it's very possible that the same people will do the same thing again, but then the other way around.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not just possible its allready happening. With phats bouncing back the way they did ppl are starting to smell the profit on the santa market.( Market value at 4.3-4.4 atm.) With a lot of ppl unlaoding their phats at the time of the greatest drop i seriously doubt that that cash will be reinvested in phats market anytime soon. Its to big of a pill to swallow. So i think we could see a significant raise in santas over the course of the next week.

Well, I think the topic post was well thought out and crafted, but my ignorance here spurns a few questions as to the legitimacy of accurate price tracking.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

How many P-hats does one person see get sold a night? 2? 3? Or is it a giant number when you stick around a market all night? And how do you know what the selling price was? Unless you are involved, there is no way to know for sure what the final negotiated price was.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Analysis of the annual trend is easy, and can be monitored successfully, but to say there was a "crash" at night that rebounded seems a little short-sighted. Couldn't there just have been a lull in general activity amongst RS's richest?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If there IS a really high volume of P-Hat trade (30 + / hour in one spot), then I would have to stand corrected.

Well, I think the topic post was well thought out and crafted, but my ignorance here spurns a few questions as to the legitimacy of accurate price tracking.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

How many P-hats does one person see get sold a night? 2? 3? Or is it a giant number when you stick around a market all night? And how do you know what the selling price was? Unless you are involved, there is no way to know for sure what the final negotiated price was.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Analysis of the annual trend is easy, and can be monitored successfully, but to say there was a "crash" at night that rebounded seems a little short-sighted. Couldn't there just have been a lull in general activity amongst RS's richest?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If there IS a really high volume of P-Hat trade (30 + / hour in one spot), then I would have to stand corrected.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Party Hat market is actually pretty big these days; they've been rising since late August. In Fally Park there's usually at least 15 players merchanting Party Hats, and as many as 25-30 during peak hours. At the time of the crash, just about every merchant online came to World 2 in hopes of selling of their Hats and rebuying at lower values. I was there myself, I sold off around 8 Party Hats at the start, and parked myself in the Park for most of the day. As a Merchant I was somewhat forced to observe the day's events, as I didn't want to be stuck with Party Hats during a crash, but also because I didn't want to be stuck with 500M cash or whatever if they began re-rising.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

By the end of the day, despite the extremely low prices (103M Blues, 73-74M Whites), it was becoming obvious that Hats were probably going to bounce back, as fewer and fewer players were selling, and buyers finally began appearing. At this point I bought a Blue, White and Green, and called it a night, it was pretty late.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The next day I had work, but I checked the forums in the morning and confirmed my prediction: Party Hats were bouncing back fast. I logged in and nabbed another Blue and Red and headed to work. By the time I got back, prices had risen from the previous day's lows by nearly 10%. Blues were nearly impossible to buy, as sellers refused to part with them at such low values as 110-112M.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It was basically the fact that I was online merchanting nearly the entire day that I can give such a confident report about the drop. I always love Party Hat crashes, since they are a great way to beat inflation. If you sell your Hats at the start of a drop, and then buy them all back at or near bottom values, you can increase your wealth by up to 10% (assuming it is a drop, and not a crash which leads to a recession). It was a very significant day for Rares overall, since many believed that the economy was ready to head into a recession following a crash in Party Hats. This just proves that theory is false.

The Party Hat market is actually pretty big these days; they've been rising since late August. In Fally Park there's usually at least 15 players merchanting Party Hats, and as many as 25-30 during peak hours. At the time of the crash, just about every merchant online came to World 2 in hopes of selling of their Hats and rebuying at lower values. I was there myself, I sold off around 8 Party Hats at the start, and parked myself in the Park for most of the day. As a Merchant I was somewhat forced to observe the day's events, as I didn't want to be stuck with Party Hats during a crash, but also because I didn't want to be stuck with 500M cash or whatever if they began re-rising.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ah ha!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Being only about 3 months into playing (and being a very unspectacular player at that), I'm still a long way from party hat status, but didn't know that there was as much volume available as there is.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

With that type of volume, then traditional and typical economic indices can apply to the situation. Your studies are correct in that they can serve as sort of the "tech stock" high risk heavy fluctuating trade item that can be gloriously predictable, as opposed to the blue-chip always slowly rising prices of commodity items such as feedstocks (coal, logs, etc.).

very educational, i enjoyed reading it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Have any idea WHY they rose in such a small space of time?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It doesn't take a merchant to pick up on this one.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This year has had 3 big influences on prices:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1: Slayer: When the first few hundred players got to 85 slayer they made previously unimaginable amounts of GP in a very short time. At first it was easy to get a few whips a day, or at least a whip every day or two. At prices well over 10m each for over a month or two, that really added up. Aside from whips, just GETTING to 85 slayer was very profitable for the first to do so. I made about 5-6m from addy boots the first weekend I had 75 slayer, and mauls were going for 2m a piece.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I was one of the slower to get 85 slayer (out of the people who started strong in it) and around my 1 year mark had around a 250m bank. I had stayed around the top 200 or so in slayer until I got bored and sick of combat and worked on smithing and some other skills. Was around the 500th person to get 85 when whips were 8m a pop.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

High levels with 85 slayer bought dragon bones and rares, knowing that their ownership and holding of them would profit them when prices rose more. This was the beginning, then...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2: Barrows: Barrows came out and completely changed the face of combat in Runescape. Players of just about any skill level could attempt grabbing pieces of armor selling at rediculous prices. This gave those who didn't raise slayer a chance at some sweet drops without much of a time investment.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The prices of sets at first were absurd. Sets that are no more than 1-2m now were selling 15-20m upon release. Only Guthan has retained anything near its original prices. Torag was the primary choice at first until word spread of the set effects with Guthan.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So what does this all matter? People who have never had large amounts of gold in the past were suddenly making more in a day than some players have made in the whole time they've played RS. These players wanted rares, and with as easy as they made their money, didn't mind paying a little more than average in order to get them. This made for a big [bleep]e in rare prices, which then went on to...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3: Merchants/Manipulations: With so much demand for rare items, merchants and their friends saw an opportunity to profit. The forums were flooded with combinations of overpriced sellers and also overpriced offers. Regardless of how obvious it was that some of these threads were fake, and nothing more than a bad attempt to jack up prices, they managed to bring up the prices of rares to levels you wouldn't have even imagined a year before.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The combination of these things (highly uneven distribution of gp, masses of newly wealthy players, and profit-seekers) combined for a nice skyrocket of rare prices.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Honestly I've never cared much about rares. The only one I've ever wanted was my red phat (which cost me 30m MORE to replace after getting keylogged than my original one did... grrr), but it is interesting to see how much the prices change and what people will pay for a useless item (myself included lol).

 

very educational, i enjoyed reading it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Have any idea WHY they rose in such a small space of time?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It doesn't take a merchant to pick up on this one.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This year has had 3 big influences on prices:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1: Slayer: When the first few hundred players got to 85 slayer they made previously unimaginable amounts of GP in a very short time. At first it was easy to get a few whips a day, or at least a whip every day or two. At prices well over 10m each for over a month or two, that really added up. Aside from whips, just GETTING to 85 slayer was very profitable for the first to do so. I made about 5-6m from addy boots the first weekend I had 75 slayer, and mauls were going for 2m a piece.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I was one of the slower to get 85 slayer (out of the people who started strong in it) and around my 1 year mark had around a 250m bank. I had stayed around the top 200 or so in slayer until I got bored and sick of combat and worked on smithing and some other skills. Was around the 500th person to get 85 when whips were 8m a pop.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

High levels with 85 slayer bought dragon bones and rares, knowing that their ownership and holding of them would profit them when prices rose more. This was the beginning, then...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2: Barrows: Barrows came out and completely changed the face of combat in Runescape. Players of just about any skill level could attempt grabbing pieces of armor selling at rediculous prices. This gave those who didn't raise slayer a chance at some sweet drops without much of a time investment.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The prices of sets at first were absurd. Sets that are no more than 1-2m now were selling 15-20m upon release. Only Guthan has retained anything near its original prices. Torag was the primary choice at first until word spread of the set effects with Guthan.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So what does this all matter? People who have never had large amounts of gold in the past were suddenly making more in a day than some players have made in the whole time they've played RS. These players wanted rares, and with as easy as they made their money, didn't mind paying a little more than average in order to get them. This made for a big [bleep]e in rare prices, which then went on to...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3: Merchants/Manipulations: With so much demand for rare items, merchants and their friends saw an opportunity to profit. The forums were flooded with combinations of overpriced sellers and also overpriced offers. Regardless of how obvious it was that some of these threads were fake, and nothing more than a bad attempt to jack up prices, they managed to bring up the prices of rares to levels you wouldn't have even imagined a year before.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The combination of these things (highly uneven distribution of gp, masses of newly wealthy players, and profit-seekers) combined for a nice skyrocket of rare prices.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Honestly I've never cared much about rares. The only one I've ever wanted was my red phat (which cost me 30m MORE to replace after getting keylogged than my original one did... grrr), but it is interesting to see how much the prices change and what people will pay for a useless item (myself included lol).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This post examined a cross-road for the Rares economy. Had the Party Hat drop continued for only 1-2 days longer, the entire Rares Market would have likely been in a recession for weeks, possibly even months. However, the sudden rebound in prices has given way to recent rises in Santa Hats (which have increased nearly 25% since the creation of this post). Masks are also beginning to rise (up to 14.8M a set from 14M). I believe this proves that what I have written was a very accurate prediction, as the exact Rares that I pointed out rose within 2-3 days of the writing of this thread.

(AND THIS IS STRICTLY MY OPINION, NOT TO BE DEPENDED ON)

 

 

 

i love how you covered your behind there :P

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

though i can't even pretend to be an expert on the rares economy, i do have some experience with RL stock charts, and i'm glad i recognized that santas would start rising again once the christmas craze was over; it was just too greatly oversold, 4M was a resistance level and now it's bouncing back (5M already? jebus, i bought 6 two days ago 4.05M ea :D ).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ugh i sound so self serving. but it does go to show you you don't have to be an expert to predict where the market may be going.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

and, on the note of RL stock charts, have you ever seen or heard of anything like that for runescape, r2-pleasent? it'd be very interesting to see the rare charts over the past 5 years..

thanks for the updates..

 

 

 

when i first started rs i collected a ton of phats and got hacked! then rs2 started and i still had like 5 sets and i sold 3. now i only have 2 sets left and i dont understand why people want them. yes a good investment but honestly wait untill summer and there going to go SKY high!! Kids out of skool they can play more.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

end of summer prices are going to be insane.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

RICH GET RICHER POOR GET POORER

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MEBERS GET RICHER F2P GETS POORER!

 

 

 

and ya know thats the truth.

 

(AND THIS IS STRICTLY MY OPINION, NOT TO BE DEPENDED ON)

 

 

 

i love how you covered your behind there :P

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

though i can't even pretend to be an expert on the rares economy, i do have some experience with RL stock charts, and i'm glad i recognized that santas would start rising again once the christmas craze was over; it was just too greatly oversold, 4M was a resistance level and now it's bouncing back (5M already? jebus, i bought 6 two days ago 4.05M ea :D ).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ugh i sound so self serving. but it does go to show you you don't have to be an expert to predict where the market may be going.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

and, on the note of RL stock charts, have you ever seen or heard of anything like that for runescape, r2-pleasent? it'd be very interesting to see the rare charts over the past 5 years..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I've been working on a Rares price chart, but I still need a bit more data for it.

Imagine what you could accomplish if you put this effort into oh I dont know say.....something that mattered.

Santa Hats Are on a nice raise also, they might reach 6m again, since they have raised 1m in 1 day

Imagine what you could accomplish if you put this effort into oh I dont know say.....something that mattered.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Perception is reality, and if it matters to him, then, well, it matters.

the economy of runescape must be sooo healthy. i mean phats dropped AGAIN today. i saw r2 sellin blues for 150 mil on the fally square board and now theirs a guy in world 2 who just cant get rid of a blue for 125

My first impression looking at it it seemed like a really nice post explaining what was going on bla bla bla.

 

 

 

but at the end you are encouraging ppl that party hats wont drop thereby encouraging them to buy thereby making the phat market rise.

 

 

 

Then i thought about the entire post again and actually it looks like an inflated story about a small crash in the phat market.

 

 

 

Maybe someday I should try making a story like these get r2 to post it for me and see if ppl reply with, "nice thinking" ... like most of them including me before today always do.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thats what he does, basically.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I look at it this way... the prices are always going to constantly rise and fall. Why r2 still continues to post about it is beyond me. Just seems to me that some people never change. And his fixation on phats seems to reflect that.

i know what HE does and every other merchant.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

the thing is, they dropped rather dramatically, of course they being at all new highs the drop will be much more noticeable. ah, subtle fluxations in economy how healthy.

As a Merchant I was somewhat forced to observe the day's events, as I didn't want to be stuck with Party Hats during a crash, but also because I didn't want to be stuck with 500M cash or whatever if they began re-rising.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not to be dim-witted or anything, but, if you really don't want 500M cash I would happily take it! :P I'm poor... :oops:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[EDIT]

phats are rather eradtic at this point, theirs ALOT of people selling them more then normal, like an hour ago their was more people outside fally wall by the d chains then their was near where whips are sold. which is unusual they were all selling phats at lowered prices.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

but now some are sellin more then their highs of today oh well.