Frequency of blood drops

[Mordendravid]

Is it just me or are bloods becoming a more frequent drop? Training against fire giants I usually end up with about 5 bloods for every 10 fires killed, now it's 15-20 (this is roughly off the top of my head not something i've input into a spready) but over time is about right.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I've also noticed that the number of bloods from the barrows chest is higher - i've had a lot over 100 recently where as 40-80 was previously my average.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If it's just me that's great - don't want to look a gift horse in the mouth :-) but if others are experiencing the same could this be a precursor to the long awaited ability to craft bloods? Logic to that question being that more bloods in the game should reduce price a bit..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just wondered. Thanks for your time.

[terley]

drops are completley dependent on luck

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

its like a lottery every time u kill a monster.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

imagine having a bag of 50 red M&M's 10,000 and yellow M&M's

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

if u put ur hand in your very unlikley to get a red m&m..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

this is basicly how it works exept they only have certian ammounts that come out

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

drops and drop frequency is literally based on your luck

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

nothin else to it really

[Durothean]

this is quite true...however, *maybe* they did raise the chances to get blood runes...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

even if this is a bit of a stretch :)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

but...if they did...then, yeah. *maybe* you are right and there is a greater chance to get them...However...its still based 100% on luck.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If they made it so that dragon chains dropped 99 times out of 100, you still could possibly not get one for 100 kills or more...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

but, thats just silly. :wink:

[urza1488]

drops are completley dependent on luck

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

its like a lottery every time u kill a monster.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

imagine having a bag of 50 red M&M's 10,000 and yellow M&M's

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

if u put ur hand in your very unlikley to get a red m&m..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

this is basicly how it works exept they only have certian ammounts that come out

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

drops and drop frequency is literally based on your luck

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

nothin else to it really

Lies.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Your way u are guaranteed reds eventually. There IS NO GUARANTEE of red :lol: Very very rare, don't even think about it.

[bedman]

 

drops are completley dependent on luck

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

its like a lottery every time u kill a monster.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

imagine having a bag of 50 red M&M's 10,000 and yellow M&M's

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

if u put ur hand in your very unlikley to get a red m&m..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

this is basicly how it works exept they only have certian ammounts that come out

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

drops and drop frequency is literally based on your luck

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

nothin else to it really

Lies.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You're right, you niggler...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

:D

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Your way u are guaranteed reds eventually. There IS NO GUARANTEE of red :lol: Very very rare, don't even think about it.

[terley]

ppl think the longer you spend at fire giants the more likley you are to get a dragon med

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

it doesnt work like that its completley random

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

i guess my m&m's demenstration wasnt too sucseffull

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

but no its dependant on luck completley

[melikepie]

ppl think the longer you spend at fire giants the more likley you are to get a dragon med

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

it doesnt work like that its completley random

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

i guess my m&m's demenstration wasnt too sucseffull

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

but no its dependant on luck completley

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

the m&ms work if u put the m&m back each time

[Locke_Superbus]

i think your just getting lucky with the fire giants, ive got on average ablood rune drop every 30 giants since i was able to kill the things which is about 2 years :roll:

[urza1488]

I simulated it, and if the drop rate is 1 in 5K, if u kill 5K you have a ~60% chance of getting the drop :lol:

[urza1488]

 

 

drops are completley dependent on luck

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

its like a lottery every time u kill a monster.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

imagine having a bag of 50 red M&M's 10,000 and yellow M&M's

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

if u put ur hand in your very unlikley to get a red m&m..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

this is basicly how it works exept they only have certian ammounts that come out

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

drops and drop frequency is literally based on your luck

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

nothin else to it really

Lies.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You're right, you niggler...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

:D

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Your way u are guaranteed reds eventually. There IS NO GUARANTEE of red :lol: Very very rare, don't even think about it.

 

 

 

In his simulation, if he picked forever, he would have eventually gotten a red bead because there are only so many beads. You can kill (Ie bead) forever, so infinitely many beads so you can go forever with no beads.

[bedman]

 

 

 

drops are completley dependent on luck

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

its like a lottery every time u kill a monster.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

imagine having a bag of 50 red M&M's 10,000 and yellow M&M's

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

if u put ur hand in your very unlikley to get a red m&m..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

this is basicly how it works exept they only have certian ammounts that come out

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

drops and drop frequency is literally based on your luck

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

nothin else to it really

Lies.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You're right, you niggler...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

:D

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Your way u are guaranteed reds eventually. There IS NO GUARANTEE of red :lol: Very very rare, don't even think about it.

 

 

 

In his simulation, if he picked forever, he would have eventually gotten a red bead because there are only so many beads. You can kill (Ie bead) forever, so infinitely many beads so you can go forever with no beads.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes, i know. I did agree with you. I just accidently typed my post in the middle of your quote. My fault, sorry.

[urza1488]

it's ok, sorry. :oops:

[callum6052]

ive been gettign more bloods from barrows recently...100+ per trip...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

im not complaining and im not saying there has been an increase...we just got lucky :P

[bedman]

it's ok, sorry. :oops:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You shouldnt be sorry :)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Btw: I love the links in your sig. It was quite amusing to find out every character is a unique link. And all together its an honourful message, nice usage of space.

[Nazgul740]

 

ppl think the longer you spend at fire giants the more likley you are to get a dragon med

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

it doesnt work like that its completley random

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

i guess my m&m's demenstration wasnt too sucseffull

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

but no its dependant on luck completley

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

the m&ms work if u put the m&m back each time

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

yeah its so based on luck... my friends dad (who i also know) got a d med drop after about five minutes logging in from an airport... what does this mean logging in from airports increases your chances? NO its random

[Champ999]

But, the point of this topic is that the poster is experiancing a consistent increase in drops, which isn't just random. It can be attributed to luck, but the more consistent it is, the less likely.

[n64jive]

ppl think the longer you spend at fire giants the more likley you are to get a dragon med

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

it doesnt work like that its completley random

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

i guess my m&m's demenstration wasnt too sucseffull

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

but no its dependant on luck completley

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Um, yeah, actually, the more time u spend at them, the more likely you are to get a dragon drop, and ur example was just fine.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Think of it this way:

 

 

 

You have a bag with 4,001 m&m's in it, 4000 are yellow and 1 is red. So every time u pull and m&m out u put it back in. So you say that the longer you spend their doesnt matter, well it does, because you get more picks into your bag of m&m's. eventaully if you keep trying, your bound to pull that red m&m.

[swampjedi]

Some folks just don't seem to understand probability.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

First - selection with replacement. Yeah, you pick a yellow bead, but you put it back. There are still 10,000 yellow and 50 red at the end of each round of picking.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Therefore - independent events. Your 10,000,000th drop from fire giants is just as likely to be a dragon medium as your first.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

However - you can calculate probability over a series of events. Say you kill dust devils 10,000 times, and the drop rate is 1:10,000 for chain. Your chance of NOT getting the chain is:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

.9999 (first kill) * .9999 (second kill).... *.9999 10k'th kill

 

 

 

(.9999)^10000

 

 

 

.368

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So, there's a 36.8% chance that 10k kills won't result in a chain drop. That is, if we simulate an infinite list of 10k kills, a dragon chain will appear in about 63.2% of those.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Also, you might kill 10,000,000 dust devils without a drop. The chances of this are low (4.8E-435, VERY tiny number), but it could happen.

[bedman]

Some folks just don't seem to understand probability.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

First - selection with replacement. Yeah, you pick a yellow bead, but you put it back. There are still 10,000 yellow and 50 red at the end of each round of picking.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Therefore - independent events. Your 10,000,000th drop from fire giants is just as likely to be a dragon medium as your first.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

However - you can calculate probability over a series of events. Say you kill dust devils 10,000 times, and the drop rate is 1:10,000 for chain. Your chance of NOT getting the chain is:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

.9999 (first kill) * .9999 (second kill).... *.9999 10k'th kill

 

 

 

(.9999)^10000

 

 

 

.368

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So, there's a 36.8% chance that 10k kills won't result in a chain drop. That is, if we simulate an infinite list of 10k kills, a dragon chain will appear in about 63.2% of those.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Also, you might kill 10,000,000 dust devils without a drop. The chances of this are low (4.8E-435, VERY tiny number), but it could happen.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nicely explained :)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A very constructive post, in contrary with mine here...

[jessy87]

 

ppl think the longer you spend at fire giants the more likley you are to get a dragon med

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

it doesnt work like that its completley random

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

i guess my m&m's demenstration wasnt too sucseffull

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

but no its dependant on luck completley

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

the m&ms work if u put the m&m back each time

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

this kid just taught you a math lesson terley, its like you got kicked in the crotch with math....

[bedman]

 

 

ppl think the longer you spend at fire giants the more likley you are to get a dragon med

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

it doesnt work like that its completley random

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

i guess my m&m's demenstration wasnt too sucseffull

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

but no its dependant on luck completley

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

the m&ms work if u put the m&m back each time

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

this kid just taught you a math lesson terley, its like you got kicked in the crotch with math....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dont't pick on terley. He was the first one to reply with something intelligent, however not perfect. By now, he will have seen he should have "tweaked" his comparison a bit.

 

 

 

And he IS right when he tells it doesnt matter how long you camp at fire giants, the chance to get one will stay the same every time you kill one.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oh, wait a second. It does make a difference...

 

 

 

When you kill 10k of them, the chance that you have will have one, is bigger than when you kill 100. Oops :oops:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

However, I stay with the fact that you shouldnt ridicule Terley.

[Mordendravid]

thanks guys, some interesting points! My guess was that I'm just on a lucky run (it's about time :-) but asked the question because it was consistently more of one particular drop. I'll keep tabs on it and update as I go along.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

To add to the related topic of probability of other rare drops, the more time you spend killing one type of creature for a rare drop (say fire giants for a d med) the better overall chance you have of getting that drop, but it doesn't impact the chance of each individual kill. So after killing 5000 fire giants your chance of getting a d med on the 5001st is exactly the same as killing the first. But obviously the longer you spend there the better chance of eventually getting the rare.

 

 

 

[edit] I'm basically saying the same thing here as swamp jedi above, just without the numbers :wink:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For the record I've killed slightly over 12,000 fire giants with my only d med drop coming around about the 4,000 mark. I've had every other type of drop from them except the half d shield

[urza1488]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So, there's a 36.8% chance that 10k kills won't result in a chain drop. That is, if we simulate an infinite list of 10k kills, a dragon chain will appear in about 63.2% of those.

 

 

 

 

 

 

so it looks like you did similar calculations to mine:

 

 

 

I simulated it, and if the drop rate is 1 in 5K, if u kill 5K you have a ~60% chance of getting the drop

 

 

 

Glad to see good methodology. And to melikepie, yes that works too.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Off-topic:

 

 

 

Yes, account security, search, and profile, location, etc. :) I am trying to find the accurate code for logout but that was changed :(

[jessy87]

 

 

 

ppl think the longer you spend at fire giants the more likley you are to get a dragon med

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

it doesnt work like that its completley random

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

i guess my m&m's demenstration wasnt too sucseffull

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

but no its dependant on luck completley

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

the m&ms work if u put the m&m back each time

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

this kid just taught you a math lesson terley, its like you got kicked in the crotch with math....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dont't pick on terley. He was the first one to reply with something intelligent, however not perfect. By now, he will have seen he should have "tweaked" his comparison a bit.

 

 

 

And he IS right when he tells it doesnt matter how long you camp at fire giants, the chance to get one will stay the same every time you kill one.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oh, wait a second. It does make a difference...

 

 

 

When you kill 10k of them, the chance that you have will have one, is bigger than when you kill 100. Oops :oops:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

However, I stay with the fact that you shouldnt ridicule Terley.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

lol you guys take this stuff way to seriously, i posted that because the other day terely said range = melee i made a joke about it and he too it REALLY seriously its not like i told him to kill him self.

[sk8ermaster]

good then, more bloods=more pking