so i was in abyss for a half hour....while goes by..like 25 mins nothing, then i get small pouch finally, then i decide to take my ring of wealth off. literally like 2 kills later i get med pouch, then 1 kill later i got a clue scroll, which i didnt even know u could get from them. then like 3 kills later i get large pouch. so i got 2 pouches and a clue scroll in 2 minutes with ring off and 25 minutes 1 pouch with it on..

seems like a coincidence.

I think it depends how fast you kill the monster :)

seems like a coincidence.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As true as you can get.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I am quite sick of all the people comlaining about the ROW.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

STATISTICALLY, it has an effect. But people forgot that those are only statistics, and that it's still all about luck. I guess some people dont understand what # % chance means...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(to everybody: pm me if you dont understand, in stead of making another pointless topic)

 

seems like a coincidence.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As true as you can get.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I am quite sick of all the people comlaining about the ROW.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

STATISTICALLY, it has an effect. But people forgot that those are only statistics, and that it's still all about luck. I guess some people dont understand what # % chance means...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Confirmation.

 

 

 

Its all about the luck of the dice.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just because you take off your ring of wealth, and for a few seconds you get some good drops, doesn't mean that it doesn't pay off in the long run.

i doubt row effects pouches.. correct me if i am wrong doesn't the row only effect rare drops?

Say the drop rate is one in 10. You kill 10. chance of getting one is 60%.

 

 

 

Say its reduced by 20%, so 1 in 8. Chance in 10 is like 70%, so increased by about 17%. So it's statistics, not some "1 in 10 means if i do 10 i get one" :lol:

Say the drop rate is one in 10. You kill 10. chance of getting one is 60%.

 

 

 

Say its reduced by 20%, so 1 in 8. Chance in 10 is like 70%, so increased by about 17%. So it's statistics, not some "1 in 10 means if i do 10 i get one" :lol:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Go, go, urza, go go!!! :D

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Good that you elaborated for the "less intelligent people" out here :wink:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

However, i do admit I didnt know the exact numbers. Only 60 % chance when killing 10 with a chance of 10 % each time, hmm :(

Say the drop rate is one in 10. You kill 10. chance of getting one is 60%.

 

 

 

Say its reduced by 20%, so 1 in 8. Chance in 10 is like 70%, so increased by about 17%. So it's statistics, not some "1 in 10 means if i do 10 i get one" :lol:

 

 

 

Forgive me if I am wrong, but wouldn't it be a 55% chance of getting one at 1 in 10 odds? That's what I keep getting, as my answer, but as a high school freshman I'm probably wrong.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'll get back to banging my head against the wall trying to figure it out now, thanks. :oops:

Its more than one in ten however I have noticed something.

 

 

 

Ring of Wealth - Used to get valued items - not nescarly what you want



When you die with a pouch it vannishes - conclusion is that they are worth less than 0 gp - this is unskuled with nothin else in inventory or on

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Anyone ever considerd that posibly the Ring of Wealth has a negitive affect?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The diffrence bettween 1 hour and almost 3 hours was enough for me to decide never to use it for pouches again.

Simply a coincidence.

Its more than one in ten however I have noticed something.

 

 

 

Ring of Wealth - Used to get valued items - not nescarly what you want



When you die with a pouch it vannishes - conclusion is that they are worth less than 0 gp - this is unskuled with nothin else in inventory or on

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Anyone ever considerd that posibly the Ring of Wealth has a negitive affect?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The diffrence bettween 1 hour and almost 3 hours was enough for me to decide never to use it for pouches again.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

see i'm not crazy

Err, the Wring Of Wealth affects stackable items, like Runes and mostly Coins. Test it out at Shadow Warriors if you don't beleive me.

The abyss is a weird place and I wouldn't find it too surprising to learn that ROW has a negative affect there. But in general, I feel my drops are better with it than without it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As for the stats:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1 in 10 drop rate yields the following probability:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

After killing 10 monsters, the probability of getting AT LEAST one drop is

 

 

 

Sum( (10 choose n)*.1^n*.9^(10-n), n=1 to 10) = 65.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

After killing 10 monster, the probability of getting EXACTLY one drop is:

 

 

 

(10 choose 1)*.1*.9^(9) = 38.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Google Bernoulli Random Variable to find out more about Runescape's most used kind of probability.

why were you even fighting them when you needed a small pouch instead of getting a free replacement from the dark mage first?

I think its still pure luck... and nothing to do with you taking it off and on.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I was in the abyss for like 2 hours and only got a small pouch. Did 2 more trips and got nothing. 3rd trip I got Medium, large, and extra large (w/e), almost one after the other and I was wearing my ring of wealth the whole time. I don't even have 50 Runecrafting (48 arg).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Check out your melodys before you lay it down out of key.

 

Say the drop rate is one in 10. You kill 10. chance of getting one is 60%.

 

 

 

Say its reduced by 20%, so 1 in 8. Chance in 10 is like 70%, so increased by about 17%. So it's statistics, not some "1 in 10 means if i do 10 i get one" :lol:

 

 

 

Forgive me if I am wrong, but wouldn't it be a 55% chance of getting one at 1 in 10 odds? That's what I keep getting, as my answer, but as a high school freshman I'm probably wrong.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'll get back to banging my head against the wall trying to figure it out now, thanks. :oops:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I get 63%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The probability of x discrete events occurring over a given interval, with a known average number of events occurring accross that interval follows a poisson distribution. Things like the number of cars passing through an intersection every five minutes, or the number of phone calls an office recieves in an hour - or the number of widgets a mob will drop in x number of kills in an MMORPG.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Poisson distributions follow the formula:

 

 

 

P(x) = (exp(-y) * y^x) / x!

 

 

 

Where x is the number of occurences you want to find the probability for, y is the average number of occurences per interval and P(x) is the probability of x occurences happening in that interval.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The probability, given 1 drop per ten kills of obtaining 1 item is 37%. However we are interested (since you can only have one of these items in your posession at any time) in the probability of getting at least one item. Which is the sum of all the probabilities for getting 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10 items per ten kills. Or more easily worked out as one (one hundred percent chance of getting between naught and ten items per ten kills) minus the probability of getting zero. The probability of getting zero according to the poisson distribution formula is 37% so the probability of getting at least one item per ten kills is 63%.

Dwarfie, your analysis is very nearly correct, but I *think* that a Bernoulli Random Variable better describes the situation. Poisson variables are generally for continuous cases (ie, your cars passing through an intersection in X minutes) whereas Bernoulli Random Variables are more of a discrete case kinda thing (ie, how many coin flips result in heads out of 20).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Since I don't want to take over the thread, PM me if you like and we can continue this excellent mathematical discussion.

you know you can get the small one back for free from the dude in the middle?

There's an easier way of reaching the conclusion that in there is a 65% chance of getting at least one drop.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1 - (9/10)^10 which approx. = 65.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(9/10)^10 is the chance that you don't get a single drop, so taking 1 minus that would be the chance that you don't not get any drops (double negative, I know), which is the chance that you get at least one.

Since I don't want to take over the thread, PM me if you like and we can continue this excellent mathematical discussion.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nah, that's OK... I will leave you with a joke though:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q: What's a polar bear?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A: It's a rectangular bear after a coordinates transform.

the ring of wealth has to do with lotterys.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The ring of wealth makes you get into the gem lottery more often, which in turn... makes your other drops become less.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Notice, when you have a ring of wealth on, you get an enormous amount of COIN drops, its because the ring of wealth puts you in the coin lottery a lot.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The coin lottery consists of these items = Coins -> Saphires -> Emeralds -> Ruby-> Diamonds -> Half Key - > Dragon Shield.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

These are the only items the ROW helps get. Because you get these items MORE often, your other normal items (dragon meds, mith shields) are picked significantly less.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For those of you who are weary of this... go to the fire giants, shadow warriors... and kill 1000 with and 1000 without... recording all drops. Note the outcome.

 

 

seems like a coincidence.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As true as you can get.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I am quite sick of all the people comlaining about the ROW.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

STATISTICALLY, it has an effect. But people forgot that those are only statistics, and that it's still all about luck. I guess some people dont understand what # % chance means...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Confirmation.

 

 

 

Its all about the luck of the dice.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just because you take off your ring of wealth, and for a few seconds you get some good drops, doesn't mean that it doesn't pay off in the long run.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

yeah you just got to think about it like a dice with thousands of sides, and on each side you have a drop... the ROW slightly changes it but riggs the dice, but it's minor, only really makes a noticable difference with extremly rare items, such as dragon items...

You finaly get a small pouch... good story... took that long to find the mage in the middle? I use leeches to get pouches back pretty fast for me.

Well , what I notice is that when you got your first pouche

 

 

 

The other ones come very quickly after the first...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

~Rider