MANwitSTIK1 Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 Awhile ago, i was fighting dusties and i to my surprise, i got a chain after only fighting about 100 or so. This was when they went for 33 mil, so i sold it. At that time, a lot of others say they got a chain there too around the same time. Now im back at dusties and it seems no one is ever getting a chain. Ive killed thousands. Think the drop rate changed or did we just get really lucky earlier? I am currently buying:Green Drag Hides: 1500eaBlue Drag Hies: 1800ea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddawn509 Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 i think it was early luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaejer Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 You guys just got lucky, at least that is what it would most likely be. There would be no point in changing the drop rates of an item. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbjdude91 Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 the first time u got a chain in about 100 kills, you got EXTREMELY lucky... ive heard the drop rate of a chain from them is like 1 in 50,000. i dont think theyd change the drop rate on it This is my original signature. You can't touch this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANwitSTIK1 Posted March 29, 2006 Author Share Posted March 29, 2006 ok, i wouldnt think so either, but u never know if too many poeple got them maybe they changed it, but thanks I am currently buying:Green Drag Hides: 1500eaBlue Drag Hies: 1800ea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvw08 Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 If theres one thing I despise it's people talking about the drop rates, there are no official drop rates for anything in rs, there are people that have gotten a chain on their first one and then there are people that have killed tons and tons To the person saying 50k till a chain, has anyone killed 50k of them? All in all, there is no official drop rate so people just need to stop trying to sound smart in saying that they know. Droolman's item Guide | My RuneScape pictures | My barrows videos, with download link!Free Image Hosting! | Free File Hosting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Count_Oxymo Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 If theres one thing I despise it's people talking about the drop rates, there are no official drop rates for anything in rs, there are people that have gotten a chain on their first one and then there are people that have killed tons and tons To the person saying 50k till a chain, has anyone killed 50k of them? All in all, there is no official drop rate so people just need to stop trying to sound smart in saying that they know. well there arent any offical drop rates, but jagex must have a system to determen the drops. So if there is a system then there is also a drop chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ikzelf100 Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 If theres one thing I despise it's people talking about the drop rates, there are no official drop rates for anything in rs, there are people that have gotten a chain on their first one and then there are people that have killed tons and tons To the person saying 50k till a chain, has anyone killed 50k of them? All in all, there is no official drop rate so people just need to stop trying to sound smart in saying that they know. well there arent any offical drop rates, but jagex must have a system to determen the drops. So if there is a system then there is also a drop chance no it is just luck and nothing more then big luck like the wheel of fortune there is no way you know whast number comes out because u should always win then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
z80a Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 i heard that d chain drop from dusties is a bug and it has been fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blubber Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 i heard that d chain drop from dusties is a bug and it has been fixed. Um...no? If they stopped Dust Devils from dropping Dragon Chains then I'm very upset. :x Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vigardo Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 i heard that d chain drop from dusties is a bug and it has been fixed. then they should have fixed it at the beginning, not 1 year later when they were known for having d chain drop. Lvl 109 main - retiredCurrently playing:Lvl 107 Rune pure with 99 range, 99 hp, 99 mage, 99 att, 99 str and 98 slayerLvl 200 Maxed with 114 dung.Norge ruler! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SAGE Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 i heard that d chain drop from dusties is a bug and it has been fixed. *Sigh* The guy who said Abbyssal Demons drop Light Sabres told you this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phata_elise Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 The problem with dragon chains and drop rates is that those are so small. For instance: If the drop rate is indeed 1 in 50000: This means you have a chance of 1/50000 of getting a chain, or 1-1/50000 chance of not getting a chain. Suppose you kill 50000 dust devils, the chance of not getting a chain is (1-1/50000)^50000 ~ 36.8%, which means that 100%-36.8% = 63.2% chance of getting a chain. If you really want to figure out the drop rate, you'll need to kill much more than 50k dust devils. Not something a lot of people do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordendravid Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 If theres one thing I despise it's people talking about the drop rates, there are no official drop rates for anything in rs, there are people that have gotten a chain on their first one and then there are people that have killed tons and tons To the person saying 50k till a chain, has anyone killed 50k of them? All in all, there is no official drop rate so people just need to stop trying to sound smart in saying that they know. well there arent any offical drop rates, but jagex must have a system to determen the drops. So if there is a system then there is also a drop chance no it is just luck and nothing more then big luck like the wheel of fortune there is no way you know whast number comes out because u should always win then That might be true for the recipient of the chain, but certainly not true for the dusties that drop it. It might be as close as possible to "random" as to when they drop but it would still be within a defined numerical value. You cannot program "luck" so hence there has to be a drop rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KK_Rox Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 I've killed like 30k since november... No chain at all. Jagex hates me. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
z80a Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 well did anyone get any d chain from dusties during last 6 months? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigsword33 Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 If theres one thing I despise it's people talking about the drop rates, there are no official drop rates for anything in rs, there are people that have gotten a chain on their first one and then there are people that have killed tons and tons To the person saying 50k till a chain, has anyone killed 50k of them? All in all, there is no official drop rate so people just need to stop trying to sound smart in saying that they know. well there arent any offical drop rates, but jagex must have a system to determen the drops. So if there is a system then there is also a drop chance no it is just luck and nothing more then big luck like the wheel of fortune there is no way you know whast number comes out because u should always win then That might be true for the recipient of the chain, but certainly not true for the dusties that drop it. It might be as close as possible to "random" as to when they drop but it would still be within a defined numerical value. You cannot program "luck" so hence there has to be a drop rate. i remmber being told by jagex that drop rates were like wheels. you had all the items on 1 wheel, but everytime you see a monster respawn it has a new one. when you kill it, that wheel is spun and your drop is set. but there is also a second wheel that has all rare items like d chains only excecible thru a special slot on the first wheel. this second wheel has d drops, gems, bloods, half keys, and in the case of tzhaar, higher amounts of tokul is my guess....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ycon Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 This means you have a chance of 1/50000 of getting a chain, or 1-1/50000 chance of not getting a chain. Suppose you kill 50000 dust devils, the chance of not getting a chain is (1-1/50000)^50000 ~ 36.8%, which means that 100%-36.8% = 63.2% chance of getting a chain. Are you sure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n64jive Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 its not guarunteed drop rate like no matter what if you kill 50K, then you get a chain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
z80a Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 This means you have a chance of 1/50000 of getting a chain, or 1-1/50000 chance of not getting a chain. Suppose you kill 50000 dust devils, the chance of not getting a chain is (1-1/50000)^50000 ~ 36.8%, which means that 100%-36.8% = 63.2% chance of getting a chain. Are you sure? yes, he is right nice to meet good student here :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pure_fett Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 If theres one thing I despise it's people talking about the drop rates, there are no official drop rates for anything in rs, there are people that have gotten a chain on their first one and then there are people that have killed tons and tons To the person saying 50k till a chain, has anyone killed 50k of them? All in all, there is no official drop rate so people just need to stop trying to sound smart in saying that they know. well there arent any offical drop rates, but jagex must have a system to determen the drops. So if there is a system then there is also a drop chance no it is just luck and nothing more then big luck like the wheel of fortune there is no way you know whast number comes out because u should always win then That might be true for the recipient of the chain, but certainly not true for the dusties that drop it. It might be as close as possible to "random" as to when they drop but it would still be within a defined numerical value. You cannot program "luck" so hence there has to be a drop rate. THANK YOU! (i was gonna say that :wink: ) i don't play psykick anymore... i play 2ed: "pure fett" 26081 to get 99 herblore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
t-unit Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 if the drop rate is changed, it has gone down. i got a drag chain this week, a friend got it a few hours after me and another one got 1 the night before me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Diddy Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 i heard that d chain drop from dusties is a bug and it has been fixed. *Sigh* The guy who said Abbyssal Demons drop Light Sabres told you this? lol nice one but i seriously doubt that it was a bug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalcyte Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 The problem with dragon chains and drop rates is that those are so small. For instance: If the drop rate is indeed 1 in 50000: This means you have a chance of 1/50000 of getting a chain, or 1-1/50000 chance of not getting a chain. Suppose you kill 50000 dust devils, the chance of not getting a chain is (1-1/50000)^50000 ~ 36.8%, which means that 100%-36.8% = 63.2% chance of getting a chain. If you really want to figure out the drop rate, you'll need to kill much more than 50k dust devils. Not something a lot of people do. missing your logic here....if it is 1/50000, then the chance of NOT getting on is simply 49999/50000. But i'm not sure it is 50000 and there probably is no definite #. Click for mah Blog!- I'm not sure why you would though because i never update it Achieved 99 Thieving 3/10/07-992nd to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nueropa Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 The bug that was fixed was when dust devils first came out they dropped 2 noted dragon chains, that was fixed fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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