Tip.It Times Presents: Construction & The Price...

[Lu_Bu_the24]

I think you just blew my mind, seriously.

 

 

 

I'm not a super rich player but the way Runescape economy works fascinates me.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

P.S. you stole my post virginity, my first post on tip.it. :wink:

[drtoxic]

This is pretty fascinating I think. I am a Finance major in college and the wacky runescape economy always gets my interest. :)

[Zandalf]

:idea: :idea: :idea: :idea: :idea:

 

 

 

Duke, just trying to anticipate what you've got in the works. I imagine this would be a perfect project for a mind like yours:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Someone (i.e. you) could put together an index like the Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ, or the S&P 500 in the U.S. (not sure of the Netherlands/European equivalents).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You could track the cost of a select few NON-rares. A much more difficult job due to the smaller fluctuations and the scope of the market. But you would pick what you considered to be the lead economic indicators for the rs economy. Like for example:

• [*:1l3b7hhj]raw lobs[*:1l3b7hhj]steel bars[*:1l3b7hhj]coal[*:1l3b7hhj]big bones[*:1l3b7hhj]yew logs[*:1l3b7hhj]rune ess[*:1l3b7hhj]pure ess[*:1l3b7hhj]prayer pots[*:1l3b7hhj]dragon bones[*:1l3b7hhj]dragon meds[*:1l3b7hhj]etc.

I think it would be fascinating to see how the whole market plays out, and have some expert analysis to go along with it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

:idea: :idea: :idea: :idea: :idea:

[Duke_Freedom]

P.S. you stole my post virginity, my first post on tip.it. :wink:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hehe, I always appreciate seeing people make their first forum post on a tip.it times of me. :P

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You could track the cost of a select few NON-rares. A much more difficult job due to the smaller fluctuations and the scope of the market. But you would pick what you considered to be the lead economic indicators for the rs economy.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I have already been keeping record of some (though not all :() important materials in the game for a while. :)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sadly, I find that there is not that much to say about the material market though. The prices of materials do not seem to change for any other reasons then important game-updates or anti-macroing measurements (or the lack of :P). Therefore, charts of material prices don't tell us much about the economy, but whether there has been some change in the game that effected a certain material. :?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Most expensive pseudo-rare items only go down on the long-term and, occasionally, go up as the result of game-updates too. Not much more then that to say about pseudo-rares either, but it might be interesting to see exactly how their price drops with the time (although it is easy to predict that it would look a bit like y=1/x).

[welmby]

i'm not suprized really on the money part of this, i just wish htat when you re-arange the rooms that they are still paid for just moved.

[xvillexvalox]

I just read it an hour ago but the forums werent working

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Very interesting read,though I hate to point out 1 mistake...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Where you address 6-7 billion being put in as compared to 1 bilion going out, you wrote "6-7 billion exp" instead of gp :oops: :ohnoes:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edit:

 

 

 

...While this amount is still significant, it is too small to do anything about the huge money production in RuneScape. Compared to my last estimate of a net 6 to 7 billion exp created per day, the 1 billion gp drain per day does nothing more...

[Unitedite]

So Duke, you've been logging the prices of rares for almost the past four years? And you've got logs showing the price changes of other items as well? Amazing :)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Will you ever upload the raw figures so that other people can offer their analyses?

[Duke_Freedom]

Where you address 6-7 billion being put in as compared to 1 bilion going out, you wrote "6-7 billion exp" instead of gp :oops: :ohnoes:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hm you're right - my own version didn't have it as exp though. :P Bad Editor! :anxious:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So Duke, you've been logging the prices of rares for almost the past four years?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sounds creepy when you put it like that, but yes. :P The material price data I have is also of the past four years, but it has only been updated every so many months.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Will you ever upload the raw figures so that other people can offer their analyses?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah, I will publish them some time too, but not soon I think. I would still like to add some important materials that I miss, and hopefully my memory can help me a bit to remember their prices in the past. :)

[123Yourgone]

May sound kinda impossible and deffinatly hard but i think you should start a new char and merchant your way back up to richest player on rs, think it would be cool to watch, if you need some starting funds and you ever feel up to the challenge ill hook you up. :thumbsup: :XD:

[sarelon]

Duke,

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Though I do agree that the economy in RS is more complicated than a number of players give it credit for, I have to question some of your results and sources. Your portion of the article on construction growth has an obious data source of which the results of your research are definately not suprising. The benifits of a high level in construction don't really justify the cost to get there. The new costume room update will really only help to encourage people to gain a moderate level to help clear bank space but I believe something more needs to be done in order to entice people to proceed in the skill.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As for the 'rare' market, I would like to know where you got your data and how it was compiled. I have never seen an official source for pricing of any items in RS and would question anything compiled by a single individual or even a small group. I think the sheer quantity of transactions going on at any one point far exceed the ability of any unofficial source to accurately calculate.

 

 

 

As for pricing fluxuations in general, I contend that they have less to do with inflation and deflation as much as they do with simple supply and demand. For instance, I have seen a constant decline in the price of Amulets of Glory from 100k all the time to something much more moderate. The release of the onyx amulet I'm sure made a small difference but I believe the bigger reason was a slow flood of the market...a reduction in demand. It appears that the growth of the supply of this item has exceeded the growth of the community demanding it.

 

 

 

Lastly, in response to one of the other posts I noticed...rare equipment will not become more rare due to the current community growth. There are a number of reasons why it won't. The community in general continues to gain in levels and more and more people are actually going out and getting rares for themselves instead of sitting around on their duffs chopping trees to earn the money needed to buy them. Granted, you will always have some losses due to the idiots that deck themselves out in that nice rare equipment and then go off and get themselves killed in the middle of nowhere with nobody around to retrieve it and you probably have some other losses from people not playing anymore, but I believe the growth of the supply and the growth of the demand, at least for now, appears to be equal.

 

 

 

I think it importiant for everyone to rememeber, an item is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it...and some people have more money than brains.

[123Yourgone]

Duke,

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Though I do agree that the economy in RS is more complicated than a number of players give it credit for, I have to question some of your results and sources. Your portion of the article on construction growth has an obious data source of which the results of your research are definately not suprising. The benifits of a high level in construction don't really justify the cost to get there. The new costume room update will really only help to encourage people to gain a moderate level to help clear bank space but I believe something more needs to be done in order to entice people to proceed in the skill.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As for the 'rare' market, I would like to know where you got your data and how it was compiled. I have never seen an official source for pricing of any items in RS and would question anything compiled by a single individual or even a small group. I think the sheer quantity of transactions going on at any one point far exceed the ability of any unofficial source to accurately calculate.

 

 

 

As for pricing fluxuations in general, I contend that they have less to do with inflation and deflation as much as they do with simple supply and demand. For instance, I have seen a constant decline in the price of Amulets of Glory from 100k all the time to something much more moderate. The release of the onyx amulet I'm sure made a small difference but I believe the bigger reason was a slow flood of the market...a reduction in demand. It appears that the growth of the supply of this item has exceeded the growth of the community demanding it.

 

 

 

Lastly, in response to one of the other posts I noticed...rare equipment will not become more rare due to the current community growth. There are a number of reasons why it won't. The community in general continues to gain in levels and more and more people are actually going out and getting rares for themselves instead of sitting around on their duffs chopping trees to earn the money needed to buy them. Granted, you will always have some losses due to the idiots that deck themselves out in that nice rare equipment and then go off and get themselves killed in the middle of nowhere with nobody around to retrieve it and you probably have some other losses from people not playing anymore, but I believe the growth of the supply and the growth of the demand, at least for now, appears to be equal.

 

 

 

I think it importiant for everyone to rememeber, an item is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it...and some people have more money than brains.

 

 

 

Duke was the richest player on rs for about 2 years since gasheart quit shortly after rs2's release (about 3 months after) till cursed you cleaned ha12d and a few other big name stakers to become the richest player on rs mid last year.

 

 

 

he did it all by analysing the market and merchanting since rsc, he knows the rares prices becouse he dealt in them for 4 years, i also dealt in rares a lot as i staked and traded them about a lot, i find his price graphs to be the most accurate ever posted (r2pleasents were a joke stating santa prices at 100k on rs2 ect when they started at 165k the day rs2 came off the beta and rose to 200k within a week or 2 :?).

 

 

 

If duke posts something related to rares expect it to be accurate, its like bill gates talking programming, he knows his stuff.

[sarelon]

 

 

 

 

I think it importiant for everyone to rememeber, an item is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it...and some people have more money than brains.

 

 

 

Duke was the richest player on rs for about 2 years since gasheart quit shortly after rs2's release (about 3 months after) till cursed you cleaned ha12d and a few other big name stakers to become the richest player on rs mid last year.

 

 

 

he did it all by analysing the market and merchanting since rsc, he knows the rares prices becouse he dealt in them for 4 years, i also dealt in rares a lot as i staked and traded them about a lot, i find his price graphs to be the most accurate ever posted (r2pleasents were a joke stating santa prices at 100k on rs2 ect when they started at 165k the day rs2 came off the beta and rose to 200k within a week or 2 :?).

 

 

 

If duke posts something related to rares expect it to be accurate, its like bill gates talking programming, he knows his stuff.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'm not going to argue your claims to Duke's fame though I think you would be hard-pressed to actually prove any of them. I wouldn't have posted at all if Duke had written about his opinion on the subject because I believe everyone is entitled to one (though some people should keep theirs to themselves). I posted because the article was offered as fact with charts, etc. Being (in)famous or well respected is all well and good but doesn't mean squat when you start talking numbers. Just as with all statistics, if the results can't be audited then they are meaningless.

[sarelon]

weblag - double-post.

[Duke_Freedom]

As for the 'rare' market, I would like to know where you got your data and how it was compiled.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The data was compiled from my own observation solely. From start 2003 till mid 2006 I was an active merchant in the game and dealed with rares almost every day. The prices I used for my data are low-side merchant reseller prices, which should roughly describe the average market price of a certain item the best.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

These days my data is a little bit less reliable as I don't play the game actively anymore and base the prices almost solely on forum posts on the official forums.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edit:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I posted because the article was offered as fact with charts, etc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I can see what you mean here. I can say that everyone who, objectively, does the same research on his own, should end up with the same conclusion about the periodical behaviour of rares.

[2hairyfeet]

duke

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I have found your articles have given me an interesting insight into the runescape economy

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I was wondering if you would be able to solve a pet grievance of mine,

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I am interested in the rares market but can only watch and not partake as I did not aquire the funds until recently. I now make my runescape income by doing barrows and queen trips and selling the proceeds.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I would like to know what the value such items as the dragon chain would be worth if the rares were (hypothetically speaking) not tradeable. would this be possible to work out as this would give insight into how perhaps jagex may have originally intended their economy to work out?, and do you think that these sort after items would follow the same value pattern/trend if non renewable items like rares could not be traded, and if not how would it be different?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I hope what I have written is answerable I'm just not sure how to approach it

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I look forward to your future articles 2hairyfeet

[Paracropolis]

I love reading about the RuneScape economy but is quite complex.

[Duke_Freedom]

I would like to know what the value such items as the dragon chain would be worth if the rares were (hypothetically speaking) not tradeable. would this be possible to work out as this would give insight into how perhaps jagex may have originally intended their economy to work out?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hm, very interesting question - don't think I can give any really in-depth answer (like rough price expectation of dragon chain) to it right now. Might be an interesting idea to devote an article to that some time, although it may be difficult to come up with reasonable answers. :?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

and do you think that these sort after items would follow the same value pattern/trend if non renewable items like rares could not be traded, and if not how would it be different?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pseudo-rare items like dragon chains would follow the same value trend that they do now: come into the game at a peak price, then drop quickly during the first few weeks and then continue to drop slowly on the long-term. The main difference without rares is that they would surely be valued higher then now at all times.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Another, difficult-to-answer question is whether materials would show inflationary behaviour (and thus be priced higher then in the current situation) without rares. I personally always said they would, mainly because the total value of the rares market is so extremely large (I wrote about that in this article) and because I believe that rares keep material prices down as there are many people who gather materials to make money in order to buy rare.

[beltran22]

why was duke freedom banned? anyone know?

[Blizaga57]

Interesting. I never realized the drain because of construction was that high. Do you have any way of estimating the drain rate from barrows?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Also, would it be too much trouble to post a graph of the drivative of the graph showing the rate of change in the rare prices? That would probably make analyzing the graph easier... Atleast I'd like to think it would be.

[0m3gaknight7]

Interesting. I never realized the drain because of construction was that high. Do you have any way of estimating the drain rate from barrows?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Also, would it be too much trouble to post a graph of the drivative of the graph showing the rate of change in the rare prices? That would probably make analyzing the graph easier... Atleast I'd like to think it would be.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I believe he did post dy/dx?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Duke, I have been an active staker since early rs2 and over the years I have found myself with about 5billion in assets to work with. Recently I paired myself with a few friends to work the market occasionally, together we have about 12billion in rares.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Something that was very interesting to me was the growth of various rares with respects to each other. It would be like early christmas for me if you could send me graphs of individual rare derivatives side by side or your data for me to make such graphs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Is the growth trend of all rares consistant or do certain rares (I.E. phats) lead the growth or trail after it?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oh and I made an observation recently and was wondering if you could give me some quick feedback on it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I noticed that as rs grows, many of the old time stakers and merchants who once had such central control over runescapes rares are going down. (You, cursed, iodio, d4rk, h3ll, r2 and more) It seems that there is a gradual trend for the rares in runescape to become more and more dispersed.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The result of this is that there are many, many less players with the assets to purchase individual partyhats. My theory is that this will put a cap somewhere around 500mil on blue phats where as smaller rares will continue to rise until it is no longer possible for everyone and their mother to easily acquire one. It seems the demand dies off heavily for anything worth more than a few hundred m.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Do you think growth will continue at a universal rate, or do you think that less expensive rares will make gains on the rarest of the rare?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ah and finally, if hunting turns out to be similar to slayer in that it gives the first few people to reach a certain level cape an astounding amount of money with which to acquire rares, do you think it will become another slayer with respects to the price rocketing?

[Duke_Freedom]

Interesting. I never realized the drain because of construction was that high. Do you have any way of estimating the drain rate from barrows?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I have estimated (old estimate though) the amount of money drained by barrows before, but it is hard to do an accurate guess on it. There's practically no way to figure out exactly how many barrow sets there are and how many hours people typically train with a set.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Also, would it be too much trouble to post a graph of the drivative of the graph showing the rate of change in the rare prices? That would probably make analyzing the graph easier... Atleast I'd like to think it would be.

 

 

 

I believe he did post dy/dx?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah. The graph shows the growth in the prices of rares, which is the rate of change / derivative of the rare prices.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Something that was very interesting to me was the growth of various rares with respects to each other. It would be like early christmas for me if you could send me graphs of individual rare derivatives side by side or your data for me to make such graphs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Who knows, perhaps I have made such graphs already. ;)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Is the growth trend of all rares consistant or do certain rares (I.E. phats) lead the growth or trail after it?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For now I can/will only say it is definately not consistent. People can expect an extended article about this in the future :). (Yes, I have plenty of idea's for future articles still :P)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The result of this is that there are many, many less players with the assets to purchase individual partyhats.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You have to keep in mind that together with the disappearal of various extremely rich people, a lot of high cost party hats left the market too. This means less supply and, in opposite to your arguement, is a reason for party hats to continue to rise.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

However, the idea of a potential "price roof" for party hats is not that unreasonable. Don't get me wrong: under constant conditions rares (and thus party hats too) will always continue to go up in price on the long-term. I do believe that there is some point, the price roof, after which the growth rate of rares will slow down though, but I think the prices are still far(?) away from reaching that point..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Do you think growth will continue at a universal rate, or do you think that less expensive rares will make gains on the rarest of the rare?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Over the last ~4 years there is no extremely convincing evidence that low cost rares have really risen more then high cost rares. Santa hats have shown a small extra progress compared to other rares, but it's not that significant when divided over the time. I suppose low cost rares may be rising slightly better then high cost rares, but I really doubt the difference will be that significant.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ah and finally, if hunting turns out to be similar to slayer in that it gives the first few people to reach a certain level cape and astounding amount of money with which to acquire rares, do you think it will become another slayer with respects to the price rocketing?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

IF it allows people to earn several billion(s) of gp with relative ease, then yes. More concentration of money on less people generally leads to higher prices on the short- to mid-long term.