Tip.It Times Presents: Construction & The Price...

[Duke_Freedom]

BTW Duke, do you still play?

 

 

 

Sadly not, nor do I think I will ever play rs again.

 

 

 

Are you going to be an economist when you grow up?

 

 

 

Who knows, I do have a huge interest in that subject. :)

 

 

 

Any chance you could explain your master graph? To the untrained and ignorant eye it just looks like a squiggle with no definable period. What is the period and what does this mean for the economy?

 

 

 

While the period cannot be determined that precisely, it does seem like a typical rise lasts roughly 3 or 4 months with most of the price growth happening in just 1 or 2 months. After this, the prices seem to drop slightly or go sideways for a short period of 1 or 2 months, after which the whole cyclus starts over again.

 

 

 

The graph itself is not *that* useful, but it does show that the rares market has its up's and downs and that the future can be predicted a little bit with the help of the graph.

 

 

 

The graph actually shows the economic theory of the 'conjuncture movement' which says that economic growth goes with periodical ups and downs, which follow consequently after each other.

 

 

 

Also, if as you say, the price of rares rises and falls with the total amount of gp in the game, why does this graph fluctuate so much? That wouldl surely mean that the total amount of gp in the game fluctuates as well.

 

 

 

The idea is that the long-term price development of rares is mainly influenced by the total amount of gp ingame (which we can assume to be steadily growing).

 

 

 

However, on the short-term prices do not need to follow the total amount of gp so literally. On the short-term, there are a lot of other (temporary) effects, like whether people are currently positive or negative about the future of rares, whether it is is summer, christmas or halloween and/or whether there has just been a huge update in the game.

 

 

 

If everyone has built it (and I think most of them have) and a gilded altar costs 2x 425k marble block + 4x 135k gold leaf = 1390k (if I remember correctly), it's a huge amount of money drained. If they construct marble burners too, it's 850k more.

 

 

 

Yes that doesn't sound too unreasonable.

 

 

 

That's about 10,8-17,6 bil away from the RS economy, without counting the other items built in player's houses.

 

 

 

Do keep in mind that is less then 1gp / exp gained difference though. I believe the 10gp / exp ratio I used is on the very high side for just leveling the skill alone and thus part of it should (ideally) make up for the expensive items people also make with construction. Ofcourse it's extremely hard to make it 100% accurate or anywhere near that though. ;)

 

 

 

And thanks for the positive replies everyone. :)

[caligula101]

A good article, it's quite clear to see that construction is pretty much becoming an inadequate counter to inflation as players lose interest in the skill. Do you think Jagex will ever find a way to actually consistently counter act inflation? Or do you think it will always be this way, a big update works for a while then as people become bored with it inflation sets in? I personally think they'll never stop inflation.

[aracnicos]

wow that's a lot of money... i didn't had the ideia of the money that were prouducted by day in runescape... im surprised -.-

[MeLikesPizza]

Wish I got all the money that is drained from the game...

 

 

 

A very good article! (As always :D )

[slayershunt]

This guy does very similar stuff in other games such as WoW and actually got his doctorate from a thesis on the economies of online gaming, worth a read:

 

 

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Castronova

 

 

 

theres an interview with him in New Scientist (21, october 2006, issue 2574, pg 56)

[slayershunt]

A good article, it's quite clear to see that construction is pretty much becoming an inadequate counter to inflation as players lose interest in the skill. Do you think Jagex will ever find a way to actually consistently counter act inflation? Or do you think it will always be this way, a big update works for a while then as people become bored with it inflation sets in? I personally think they'll never stop inflation.

 

 

 

it's pretty much impossible to stop inflation entirely, indeed inflation on some scale is nessesary to fund the new players of the game which join every day. However at most this only needs be say 1 billion gp per day. Ironically the more players which join the game the more high alchers we get all of whom bring in more cash into the game, at the rate one high alcher can produce money inflation will continue to grow until something fairly drastic is done bout it.

[Punc]

Very intresting read, it's fun to see that all those stuff in my economics books also apply on this game lol

[Duke_Freedom]

Do you think Jagex will ever find a way to actually consistently counter act inflation?

 

 

 

No - nor do I think they should want to limit it totally, especially not at the risk of overdoing it (read: turning the inflation into deflation), as long-term deflation is far more disastrous for the price stability of RuneScape.

 

 

 

In fact, a certain amount of money growth is currently perfectly healthy, as the amount of people playing this game is still growing at a reasonable pace. Ideally the money growth should be roughly equal or slightly higher then the player population growth.

 

 

 

The money growth in RuneScape is much higher then the population growth though, and Jagex should try to limit that as much as possible.

 

 

 

This guy does very similar stuff in other games such as WoW and actually got his doctorate from a thesis on the economies of online gaming, worth a read:

 

 

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Castronova

 

 

 

Yes, I have read his articles and they are very interesting. They partly inspire me to continue my own research as well. :)

[magicman5555]

another great article :thumbsup:

[xarronx]

there are a number of factors that effect the price of rares.......

 

 

 

just some that need to be discussed are:

 

 

 

1) the rarity of the 'rares' - how many of them are there? how many are in circulation? - in an ever increasing head count in rs they can only get rarer and rarer.

 

 

 

2) how desirable are they?

 

 

 

3) how easy is it to obtain gp or produce gp? - this ties in with inflation, the easier it is to make/gather gp the higher the price of the base rares (easter eggs) get.

 

 

 

there are other factors that affect rares but there is just a few we need to think about aswell.

[Hobgoblin11]

Ah ha, thanks for explaining that Duke.

 

 

 

Thanks again for a great read

[Kill_Thomas9]

Awesome article! Although i wish it were a little longer.

 

 

 

You should write another article soon on the growth of rares, and where you think they will go in the future. Its fun reading all your "mathematical gibberish" :P

 

 

 

 

 

Please write another one soon! :pray: :pray: :pray:

[StGerolf]

I don't know if you can put that every XP point is gained by money, I have raiesed my construction with the friendly help of Guthix. If you do one quest a week, you can raise the construction without money. For this moment I am already to lvl40 and there are enough quests waiting for raising it further

[nomadmike]

:| Even I knew the "money sink" wouldnt olve a prolem just soften it...like landing on sharp rocks that have pillows on them :ohnoes:

[blackxp]

Duke whats ur take on these new skill capes? ppl are now working harder than ever to get 99 in a stat. on a personal notice, Raw lobz were 200ea b4 the mention of the capes in the october overview. They shot up to 250ea max

 

at that point but were sold 230ea around. Now they are 250ea at lowest and reach nearly 270ea. Not only the price factor but the fact that the ammount of ppl traiing the stat is like 10x.

 

 

 

So more gp drain? Also selling the lobbys is a drain because u can sell cooked lobbys around 200ea if u dont wana waste the time marketing, or like 250ea tops. Yet still an xp drain.

[wakka102]

I love you articles duke, there one a kind and extremely entertaining. You put these things in a very easy to understand manner. Please write more :D

[m0dus]

"advanced economic theories".

 

 

 

LOL.

 

 

 

This is gradeschool math, good job trying to sound smart though. Nice job on the pretty graphs that you didn't even bother to properly explain.

[donjuan]

Ive loved all of Duke's articles. They explain excatly what I have been trying to tell my friends about the Runescape economy. I have taken quite a number of economic courses and read a few books, and it is interesting to see how so many things can be related to Runescape.

 

 

 

Love the insight, keep it up

[Duke_Freedom]

1) the rarity of the 'rares' - how many of them are there?

 

 

 

I have mentioned my guestimates on that in this article I wrote, if you are interested to read (and haven't already read that article ofcourse :)).

 

 

 

I don't know if you can put that every XP point is gained by money, I have raiesed my construction with the friendly help of Guthix.

 

 

 

Ofcourse the 10gp / exp ratio is just an average. I'm sure there are plenty of people leveling for a lot cheaper, just like there are enough people leveling more expensive then that ratio.

 

 

 

So more gp drain? Also selling the lobbys is a drain because u can sell cooked lobbys around 200ea if u dont wana waste the time marketing, or like 250ea tops

 

 

 

Remember that the whole lobster market is completely player-to-player: no money comes into the economy nor goes out of the economy, it just changes from ownership.

 

Thanks for mentioning the rise of raw lobster price though - I'm not in touch with RuneScape enough to notice such changes (quickly) myself anymore. :) Are you sure their rise is caused by the cape update and that they weren't higher before that update already?

 

 

 

I suppose their price rise makes sense though. The new capes give people a reason to actually get a 99 and cooking is one of the easiest skills to do that with.

 

 

 

Thanks for the replies. :)

[123Yourgone]

"advanced economic theories".

 

 

 

LOL.

 

 

 

This is gradeschool math, good job trying to sound smart though. Nice job on the pretty graphs that you didn't even bother to properly explain.

 

You are a grade A moron, stop and read what you said then read the article again, then slap yourself on the head.

 

Duke never said he was applying advanced economics in his article, he was saying they are relevent and its easy to make a comparison, maybe you shouldnt try too look so smart, becouse to be quite honest it makes you look mentally challenged, as for the graphs, if you have a brain its quit obvious what it means, its the [bleep]e graph based on the rise and fall of rares in past years, the huge dip in 2003 being the dupe, so unless you want to humiliate yourself further i suggest you no longer post here.

[Zandalf]

It's been a few years since I've had any math, but your graph on the total construction xp looked a bit familiar. I dusted off my old graphing calculator and played around a bit until I found the two functions (slapping my forehead - duh!) that resemble it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

y=ln(x)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

and

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

y=sqrt(x)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You say that you think the line is asymptotical -- i.e. it will eventually curve into a straight line (y = -n^-x). But is it possible that one of the above functions might describe the curve better? We might throw out the square root, because it climbs a bit too steeply. But have you experimented with trying to find a logarithmic base to fit your curve?

[Iantiger]

Another quality article from Duke. Nobody writes them better imo. Fascinating stuff about the money drain - Great work on the graphs too, I don't know how you do it. Please get your own column on Tip It Times :)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

~Ian

[caligula101]

Another quality article from Duke. Nobody writes them better imo. Fascinating stuff about the money drain - Great work on the graphs too, I don't know how you do it. Please get your own column on Tip It Times :)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

~Ian

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes every week the Editor could say at the end of his article "and now to the business news" with Duke Freedom :P

[Duke_Freedom]

Thank you 123Yourgone for answering to that guy for me. :)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

y=ln(x) and y=sqrt(x)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Both functies keep growing less as x (time) grows larger. While that does fit for the current graph, I expect the graph to eventually start growing more lineair with the time or maybe even exponential as more and more people start to play RuneScape. I'll continue to update my data on it to see if that becomes true though.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Another quality article from Duke. Nobody writes them better imo. Fascinating stuff about the money drain - Great work on the graphs too, I don't know how you do it. Please get your own column on Tip It Times :)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

~Ian

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes every week the Editor could say at the end of his article "and now to the business news" with Duke Freedom :P

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Personally I wouldn't mind writing articles a bit more regularly or having a freelance section even, but you should realize that I am not the person deciding that. In fact, I had already written this article 5 weeks ago, but it was delayed by tip.it for publication till now.

[jayc3399]

Very nice story duke, wow 232 bil? thats a ton of money...wish I had 1/1000th of that lol

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1/1000, holy i wouldn't mine 1/100,000. Thats 232,000, 1/1000 is 23.2 million

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

On topic: Amazing calculations very informative and a ver ynice article.