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Soma2035

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Everything posted by Soma2035

  1. Alright I'm rewording my entire post thanks to the numbers getting a bit confused. Arcane Sigil +749K Spectral Sigil +749K Divine Sigil +749K Elysian Sigil +13.6M Interesting to see all 4 numbers go up. Now, let's look at this, Blessed Spirit Shield -749k Holy Elixir -749k Arcane Spirit Shield (No Change) Spectral Spirit Shield (No Change) Divine Spirit Shield (No Change) Elysian Spirit Shield +12.9M Very, very interesting, don't you think? The sigils have increased, but, save the Elysian shield, none of the shields have. In the case of the shield that did increase, it increased by the amount the sigil increased MINUS 749k. On that note, notice that ALL the shields increased by that number... their sigil minus 749k. Which just happens to be the amount both the blessed spirit shield and holy elixir fell by. So here's what's really going on. Spirit Shield: Its own price Elixir: Its own price Blessed Spirit Shield: Spirit Shield + Elixir That part should be fairly obvious to anyone watching the price. But here is where it gets tricky. Complete Spirit Shield = Blessed Spirit Shield + Sigil So, a decrease in the price of a holy elixir (749k), causes an equal decrease in the Blessed Spirit Shield prices (749k). However, it didn't actually cause the Complete Spirit Shield to drop in price. Instead, it caused the SIGIL to drop in price. That means: Sigil: Complete Spirit Shield - Blessed Spirit Shield So, by decreasing the blessed spirit shield and keeping the complete Spirit Shield constant, you are increasing the Sigil by an equal amount. This is reflected perfectly well in the data above. Now, to explain the anomaly of the Elysian Sigil, let's first look at another item, the DIVINE Sigil. According to the price charts, the price of the Divine Spirit Shield went up by roughly 5%. The Divine Sigil likewise went up, but by more than the Divine Spirit Shield. This implies that one of the two were sold to create this 5% change. Using the formula we created above, a 5% increase in the Complete Spirit Shield would result in a similar increase in the Sigil. A 5% increase in the sigil would, likewise, result in a 5% increase in either the Complete Spirit Shield or the Blessed Spirit Shield. Seeing as the blessed spirit shield has not increased, we can rule out the latter. Therefore, it is fairly safe to say that at least one Divine item has been sold recently, leading to this change. That brings us to the change in the Elysian Sigil / Spirit Shield. Why does it increase by 11%? Well, I think I have an answer: Both an Elysian Sigil and an Elysian Spirit Shield were sold today. An increase in one leads to an increase in the other by roughly the same percentage, because of the insignificantly low value of the Blessed Spirit Shield. An increase of 5% of each would, after being multipled, result in a 10.25% increase in BOTH. This, coupled with a 749k+ increase from the Blessed Spirit Shield dropping, will yield approximately the current price. The numbers given by the GE page are too inaccurate to give an exact answer. So the conclusion from all of this is, Jagex is not guiding Spirit Shields. Something is causing them to be sold on the GE now. Now the question is, why are these being sold on the GE? Through the past several months, I've been tracking the GE prices on both Elysian and Spirit shields. While reports that "the price never changes" are exaggerated, they are also essentially true. In all this time, the Divine Sigil experienced a single major jump (roughly 5%), as did the Divine Spirit Shield. The Elysian Sigil and Spirit Shield did not experience a single jump. Also, for this period of time, at first, the prices for the sigils continued to DROP by a small amount. After a while, it turned around and began to increase by a small amount. This, I believe, was Jagex's first change: A decrease in Holy Elixir caused a decrease in the Divine Spirit Shield. Although I do not know the exact ratios used, this somehow caused a drop in the Sigils as well. My guess is whatever drop was caused in the elixir was doubly tied to the Spirit Shield so it could be attributed to the Sigil as well. Jagex realized how faulty this system was, and adjusted it accordingly. Now, moving on from that, we still have the issue of an increase in activity. How is it that through these several months, only one Divine Sigil/Spirit Shield was sold (or multiple ones were sold on the same day), and yet, within the past week, at least one divine item, and two Elysian items were sold? Just luck? I don't think so. Recently, as many people already know, Jagex updated the Corporeal Beast again, making it very difficult to take down with a small, organized group. Before this update, Madmanpur3, myself, and Muddybob were able to successfully kill two corporeal beasts IN A ROW without taking damage. This was the peak of our ability, and our trips almost always managed to yield at least three drops. This method wasn't ours alone though, a similar incarnation was known on RSOF as the "two-hit method" (which, incidentally, is poorly named). While our technique was slightly improved, and our coordination was definitely better (we watched many other teams using this method), other teams WERE able to use these methods and obtain drops. "Two-Hit-Method Pro Teams" as they were known were very common. As you are well aware, the Corporeal Beast is the only source of Sigils that we know of. Now, there were two groups of people that killed the Corporeal Beast at this time: the "pro" teams, or the masses. The aftermath of the update was the removal of the first of these two groups. Some of these people moved on to join masses, many of them stopped killing the beast all together. So the question is... are the masses really that much more efficient at killing the beast? Masses can certainly be responsible for the coinshare, seeing as plenty of people would be willing to risk the 400M street value that they may not be able to obtain for a much more likely but still very unlikely 5M split if the item is dropped. There certainly are coinshare masses going. However, have they really increased in number? My guess is no, the amount of beasts being killed on a daily basis is likely lower than it was before. Before the CB update, I also searched RSOF almost on a daily basis, combing it quickly for offers to sell DSS / ESS and their counterpart sigils. I found a grand total of two offers to sell Divine items this entire time. Today, I type it in. Lo and behold, there are three people right off the bat selling Divine Sigils / Shields. One of them also has an ESS for sale, while other people seem to be selling Elysian stuff as well. Again, this could be a result of an increase in masses, but I don't think that's the case. The final piece of interesting information that I have is a particular post on another website. Some person was at a small FFA and obtained a Spectral Sigil as a drop. He claimed it was the SIXTH Sigil he had seen in the past week, three at free for alls, three at Lootshare masses. In addition, Sigil drops are appearing more and more frequently on various websites. Compare this to the countless masses on RSOF that claimed to go weeks dry, and the many masses I've visited in the past and saw nothing. The most successful mass I've been in (chat) claimed to have gotten two sigils in the past three weeks. This really lends to two possible conclusions: 1) By forcing players to join masses, the amount of sigils entering the game is increasing, 2) Jagex INCREASED the sigil drop rate. This could be to compensate for the increase in difficulty, or a correction on realizing their rates were too low, or possibly even a long overdue bugfix in drop rates. 3) I am deluded, and these are all coincidences. I'll admit this is a possibility, it just might be that CBers have been getting lucky recently. However, I don't think this is a case or I obviously wouldn't have bothered typing this entire post to explain it. Anyhow, TLDR Version: Dragon Claws, maybe. Spirit Shields, no. Jagex hasn't touched them.
  2. Soma2035 posted a topic in Off-Topic
    My father and brother decided to buy a PSP 3000 recently (To play one game... go figure), and I heard that you can put emulators on it. I have a few PS1 games I'd like to play on it (as in, I have the disc itself sitting on my shelf), but I really don't have time to sit down in front of a TV and PS2 for a few hours to play those games. Does anyone know how I could go about: 1) Installing a PSX or PS1 emulator onto the PSP? 2) Make a ROM file from the actual game disc, and format it so it can be played on the PSP? It is currently updated with 4.20 firmware, and has a normal 1 GB memory stick in it. I do have the necessary USB cable as well. I've tried Google, but it brings me to guides for outdated firmware, or software that doesn't seem to work.
  3. I wasn't going for maximum xp, I just happened to have a pair and figured "what the heck instead of using whip to build timer I'll use iron knives." Besides it only lasted for 15 minutes. XD
  4. IDK, imo thatd just be crazy crazy exp, especially if in the wildy training with w/e gloves and sc tool. I think someone should find out though. i'm not much of a pvp'r but hell i might have to turn into one in hopes of a fm gloves to help me out. lolz Yes it works. I had a spare pair of range brawling gloves. Was getting 200+ xp per iron knife at earth warriors.
  5. Are you serious? "Every human being knows what is wrong and what is right"? "Wrong" and "Right" aren't even firmly defined. How on earth is anyone supposed to inherently know what is right and what is wrong? What defines right? Morality? But people don't always follow the same moral code. Talk to any vegetarian and he or she will tell you that eating an animal is bad. Talk to any farmer and they will tell you that eating an animal is perfectly okay, good even, because it's your consumption of animals that makes their living. Talk to any gourmet and they will tell you that eating an animal is good, because animals provide many ingredients for meals, and good meals are an essential part of a good life. Right and wrong are perspectives. The same issue can be both horribly, horribly wrong from one perspective, and perfectly right in another light, when both views can be considered perfectly legit. How about murder? Is a vigilante right or wrong to hunt and kill gangsters who would likely threaten, hurt, and kill dozens more if not stopped? Some would say it's "right" because it makes society safer. Some would say it's "wrong" because that is the purpose of government, law enforcement, etc. But what if the police are corrupt? What if the government is restrained by bureaucracy? Look at the American Revolution. You are the most powerful society in the world. Your people have died trying to protect these thirteen colonies. Your money has been spent on keeping the colonies afloat during the harsh times. You have done everything and anything you can for them. You ask for a small amount of payment in return, and they answer you with guns and bayonets. Is it truly wrong to demand payment for the services you have rendered them? From England's perspective, taxation without representation was perfectly right. You had to be adamant, because it is meant to be a mutually beneficial agreement. They need to help support their own causes. Yet from the American perspective, this was completely, absolutely wrong. How can any person just waltz in and help themselves to part of your money, regardless of reason? You deserve representation in this. Right and Wrong aren't defined. Hell, they don't even truly exist. They are imaginary labels that we, humans, place upon actions and ideals, based on your OWN perspective. In a society where they are taught that violence is the answer, murder in the name of your people is on par with our own policemen, being pushed into killing a dangerous criminal, or our own soldiers, fighting because they believe it is for our country.
  6. I've got a third age robe top and a third age amulet. I've bought the robe top when it was 22M and the amulet when it was 20M. If I would sell them now on the GE for max, i'd make around 45M. If I did what you said and sold them on the GE when I got them I would have made 3M. How can you possible say selling is your best option for making profit? You are also saying that by keeping the item you will only contribute to the stagnation of the price. While this is true, who in their right mind sacrificies 42M to "help the community" by letting those undervalued items go up quicker. Who? I certainly don't. On the other hand, I do agree it's very silly of people to spend hours upon hours collecting junk. That's a small minority though. Most people with a lot of junk have either accumulated it over time, or have gotten it by buyng some underpriced item. In those cases, you're best off selling your rare with that junk, and this way, liquidate those frozen assets. But I think you already said that too. I was just pointing out that there's few people who actively seek for junk. Those oportunities are long gone. Ok Bedman, I agree holding your third age was smart, but obviously the prices weren't stagnant before because they're easily triple the price they were back then, to which i'd say well done holding. Actually, I just looked at the G.E. for third age, and all three sets have shown more than a 15% increase in the past 30 days. So I guess third age isn't stagnant. Quite the dilemma, but it's promising because it shows some people are using the G.E. to trade it. So I guess 3rd age is a bad example. A better one is party hats, those are totally stagnant, or declining. They would be an ideal rare to trade on the G.E. The Dfh may be another good example, due to the fact that other than a small rise in the past week it has crashed horribly, that's one rare I would have gotten rid of before it hit bottom. The dragonfire shield is another. I don't know if people junk these or not, but they're good examples of rares that would be a good choice to sell if you're merching them. Madmanpur3 i think pretty much everyone agrees that you don't know what you're talking about, especially since you in essence just asked me if i'd rather have a rare and a ton of junk, or a group of rares. That analogy doesn't even come close to making sense in this argument. My argument is that it's better not to have junk at all and to sell your rares for profit. There is certainly no value in boosting your bank value with junk, and I have already said the best course of action would be to liquidate it. I have also said that, as is, the only way to liquidate your junk for full value is by junk trading. I understand its value for that purpose and don't dispute that. What I'm disputing is people who think adding junk to a trade makes the rare cost more. It doesn't. We have all agreed to that. You seem to be the only one left on the wrong page. It also doesn't matter if you care how much the game sets prices at, you still have to use those prices because programming prevents you from doing otherwise. GF. :thumbsup: Actually, I'm pretty sure we all agree YOU have no idea what you're talking about. What thread are you reading? [/hide] The thread where someone's trying to convince everyone that it's better to not have any junk and just sell your items? Everyone agrees it's better to not have junk... but why should you sell your items if you can't get the proper price for it? You continue to ignore this fact with every post. NO ONE wants to take a 400M loss because of Jagex's stupidity. NO ONE. Also, on the note of junk... you don't just get junk for no reason. You get junk because you were training a skill, or you got it from a drop, or you needed to rent some more powerful weapons and armor. Gaining junk or not isn't your choice. And it's MUCH better to accumulate junk and get the full price for your items than be ripped off, or have to hold onto an item you'd rather sell, but can't for the proper price. soma it's only a loss if you payed that much for it then sold it for much less The price you get is for the junk not for the rare..... ... Mad was right I guess. This is arguing with a brick wall. I'm going to leave after this post since this argument seems more or less futile at this point. 1) An item has value. It's a loss if you sell the item for less than it's value. If I get an Abyssal whip, then accidentally cast high alchemy on it, I did not gain 72K. I LOST over a million. Why? Because by getting it as a drop, it raises my overall, ACTUAL value by the equilibrium price of that item. 2) Yes, the price I get, as far as Jagex's system goes, is for the junk, not the item. However, it's a price I would only have received from selling the rare item alongside the junk. Junk is not worth the amount Jagex prices it at. In this way, I compensate for the loss on the sale of a rare item by disposing of junk for more than I would normally be able to. So yes, people SHOULD junk trade. When they have a rare item that is underpriced in the GE, no matter how they got it, holding onto it until they have enough junk or until the situation changes is the best option.
  7. [hide=Quote Chain] I've got a third age robe top and a third age amulet. I've bought the robe top when it was 22M and the amulet when it was 20M. If I would sell them now on the GE for max, i'd make around 45M. If I did what you said and sold them on the GE when I got them I would have made 3M. How can you possible say selling is your best option for making profit? You are also saying that by keeping the item you will only contribute to the stagnation of the price. While this is true, who in their right mind sacrificies 42M to "help the community" by letting those undervalued items go up quicker. Who? I certainly don't. On the other hand, I do agree it's very silly of people to spend hours upon hours collecting junk. That's a small minority though. Most people with a lot of junk have either accumulated it over time, or have gotten it by buyng some underpriced item. In those cases, you're best off selling your rare with that junk, and this way, liquidate those frozen assets. But I think you already said that too. I was just pointing out that there's few people who actively seek for junk. Those oportunities are long gone. Ok Bedman, I agree holding your third age was smart, but obviously the prices weren't stagnant before because they're easily triple the price they were back then, to which i'd say well done holding. Actually, I just looked at the G.E. for third age, and all three sets have shown more than a 15% increase in the past 30 days. So I guess third age isn't stagnant. Quite the dilemma, but it's promising because it shows some people are using the G.E. to trade it. So I guess 3rd age is a bad example. A better one is party hats, those are totally stagnant, or declining. They would be an ideal rare to trade on the G.E. The Dfh may be another good example, due to the fact that other than a small rise in the past week it has crashed horribly, that's one rare I would have gotten rid of before it hit bottom. The dragonfire shield is another. I don't know if people junk these or not, but they're good examples of rares that would be a good choice to sell if you're merching them. Madmanpur3 i think pretty much everyone agrees that you don't know what you're talking about, especially since you in essence just asked me if i'd rather have a rare and a ton of junk, or a group of rares. That analogy doesn't even come close to making sense in this argument. My argument is that it's better not to have junk at all and to sell your rares for profit. There is certainly no value in boosting your bank value with junk, and I have already said the best course of action would be to liquidate it. I have also said that, as is, the only way to liquidate your junk for full value is by junk trading. I understand its value for that purpose and don't dispute that. What I'm disputing is people who think adding junk to a trade makes the rare cost more. It doesn't. We have all agreed to that. You seem to be the only one left on the wrong page. It also doesn't matter if you care how much the game sets prices at, you still have to use those prices because programming prevents you from doing otherwise. GF. :thumbsup: Actually, I'm pretty sure we all agree YOU have no idea what you're talking about. What thread are you reading? [/hide] The thread where someone's trying to convince everyone that it's better to not have any junk and just sell your items? Everyone agrees it's better to not have junk... but why should you sell your items if you can't get the proper price for it? You continue to ignore this fact with every post. NO ONE wants to take a 400M loss because of Jagex's stupidity. NO ONE. Also, on the note of junk... you don't just get junk for no reason. You get junk because you were training a skill, or you got it from a drop, or you needed to rent some more powerful weapons and armor. Gaining junk or not isn't your choice. And it's MUCH better to accumulate junk and get the full price for your items than be ripped off, or have to hold onto an item you'd rather sell, but can't for the proper price.
  8. I've got a third age robe top and a third age amulet. I've bought the robe top when it was 22M and the amulet when it was 20M. If I would sell them now on the GE for max, i'd make around 45M. If I did what you said and sold them on the GE when I got them I would have made 3M. How can you possible say selling is your best option for making profit? You are also saying that by keeping the item you will only contribute to the stagnation of the price. While this is true, who in their right mind sacrificies 42M to "help the community" by letting those undervalued items go up quicker. Who? I certainly don't. On the other hand, I do agree it's very silly of people to spend hours upon hours collecting junk. That's a small minority though. Most people with a lot of junk have either accumulated it over time, or have gotten it by buyng some underpriced item. In those cases, you're best off selling your rare with that junk, and this way, liquidate those frozen assets. But I think you already said that too. I was just pointing out that there's few people who actively seek for junk. Those oportunities are long gone. Ok Bedman, I agree holding your third age was smart, but obviously the prices weren't stagnant before because they're easily triple the price they were back then, to which i'd say well done holding. Actually, I just looked at the G.E. for third age, and all three sets have shown more than a 15% increase in the past 30 days. So I guess third age isn't stagnant. Quite the dilemma, but it's promising because it shows some people are using the G.E. to trade it. So I guess 3rd age is a bad example. A better one is party hats, those are totally stagnant, or declining. They would be an ideal rare to trade on the G.E. The Dfh may be another good example, due to the fact that other than a small rise in the past week it has crashed horribly, that's one rare I would have gotten rid of before it hit bottom. The dragonfire shield is another. I don't know if people junk these or not, but they're good examples of rares that would be a good choice to sell if you're merching them. Madmanpur3 i think pretty much everyone agrees that you don't know what you're talking about, especially since you in essence just asked me if i'd rather have a rare and a ton of junk, or a group of rares. That analogy doesn't even come close to making sense in this argument. My argument is that it's better not to have junk at all and to sell your rares for profit. There is certainly no value in boosting your bank value with junk, and I have already said the best course of action would be to liquidate it. I have also said that, as is, the only way to liquidate your junk for full value is by junk trading. I understand its value for that purpose and don't dispute that. What I'm disputing is people who think adding junk to a trade makes the rare cost more. It doesn't. We have all agreed to that. You seem to be the only one left on the wrong page. It also doesn't matter if you care how much the game sets prices at, you still have to use those prices because programming prevents you from doing otherwise. GF. :thumbsup: Actually, I'm pretty sure we all agree YOU have no idea what you're talking about.
  9. Brick walls don't say stupid things though. well excuse me for basing a logical argument around mathematical statistics since i'm simply a brick wall who says stupid things why don't you come stand next to me while i topple over onto you or you can do this :wall: and try to beat good math sense into your heads Good math sense? My math sense is fine, I assure you. You have already stated that you would refuse to sell a 500M item at the GE price if the GE price is 100M. If you will not take a 400M loss to sell your good, why should ANYONE take this loss? Junk trading is not the only way of moving goods around. Bounty Hunter trades and other "accidents" by Jagex allow you to move money fairly safely to people in a trust trade. Admittedly, trust trades are not pleasant, but it's better than a 400M outright lost. Also, why should they sell them in the GE instead of to their friend? Let's see, I can lose 395M... or I can lose 400M and sell the item to my friend, who may be willing to repay me if he or she has a chance Corrupted Morrigan's Javelins say hi. You are being silly. I suppose that's a better word than "stupid", but you still fail to see there is no incentive to use the GE for items that are horribly underpriced.
  10. Brick walls don't say silly things though.
  11. Ya its not a pvp speical, but essentially its sort of like a cheap SGS for general uses. Enhanced Excalibur healing: +14 def and 12-20 HP over a few seconds SGS Healing (2 50% specials): Assuming you hit both times, a min of 20 HP and 10 Prayer and a max of about 50HP and 25 prayer total. If you were to miss your SGS specials however, Excalibur would actually heal more than an SGS simply because you don't need to hit with Excalibur to heal. And theirs also the fact, like you mentioned, that you don't need monsters around for the Excalibur to heal. And the +14 def boost is nice. You can also use it at places like Avians which you could not use a SGS on. Its not a full replacement for an SGS, but comes in pretty darn close for general NPC combat. SGS still reigns supreme though on bosses as it is still has the offensive stats of a GS. SGS essentially allows you to use a 5% or 10% attack/strength prayer during general NPC combat without a cost. SGS still wins by quite a bit... not to mention, for general NPC combat, you likely won't be missing a whole lot with a +132 attack bonus weapon.
  12. Lady Ninane, having a working economy will automatically invite a certain amount of price manipulation. Commodity traders of the real economy do what price manipulators in Runescape do on a daily basis, and make their living off of it. I don't like it, but I'd rather have that than a broken economy. As far as RWT goes... let's just say that it won't make RWT any easier. Have you visited cheating sites before? As I have already mentioned, I have been searching for a Divine or Elysian Spirit Shield for a long time now. I have gone through RSOF, the forums of famous clans, and even to a few well known forums dedicated to, for want of a better word, "cheaters". The truth is, as much as any of us would like to believe RWT has been stopped... it hasn't. While I never did find my spirit shield, what I did find was that RWT is thriving. Many trades are conducted through bounty hunter. Many more are conducted with overpriced / underpriced items (buy my party hat and I'll send you some money). They even have what they call "official middlemen" to conduct the trades safely. Also, Jagex slips up occasionally and creates HUGE opportunities for money transfer. Like the Morrigan's Javelins case. A corrupted Morrigan's Javelin was 5k. A corrupted Morrigan's Javelin with normal weapon poison on it was 30K. A 500 GP bottle of weapon poison, which is easy to purchase because it's a common drop, allows you to transfer 125K. They talk about many other methods, but since RWT wasn't my interest in the site, I didn't care to learn them all. Point is, RWT should not be considered a factor in fixing the Grand Exchange. Jagex's "war on RWT" as it is called is more aptly called "war on macros." Truth be told, RWT itself does not harm the game. It is large-scale RWT operations founded on gold farming and macroing that was causing them problems. RWT itself is not, and should not be, a concern. Even if the risk were to increase (which it really shouldn't, in fact, better prices will likely result in LESS RWT), it would be a small price to pay for eliminating junk trading, pricing items correctly, and making the market flow more smoothly. Demand and supply do change. You really ought to take a microeconomics course. Demand is the amount of the good that the market is willing to pay for at a price. Even if it's for the sake of reselling the next day or hour, it is still an increase in demand, and the price should increase as such. However, the terms don't particularly matter. I have already acknowledged that this is a potential problem, and the solution accounts for it. Price manipulation is not a major threat if the prices react quickly enough, and the would be manipulators had to manually purchase the goods. Limit the Grand Exchange to a normal player's needs and no more, and price manipulation will not be a problem. I fail to see how this is a problem. Let's say a general store pays 100 for each item at minimum, and you can sell 5,000 per hour. The amount of money you make is 500,000 - 5,000(Price of a Bow). Now, if bows were 100 each... you would make 0 per hour, and no one would buy and sell them. If bows were 80 each, you would make 100,000 per hour. If bows were 50 each, you would make 250,000 per hour. If bows were 20 each, you would make 400,000 per hour. The profit margin rises the lower the price falls. The higher the profit margin rises, the more likely people will take this "job", and buy up the maple longbows. The more people buying maple longbows, the higher the price will become. Therefore, eventually it will find a point of balance where some people can make money by disposing junk items for other players, but the profit margin is low enough to keep it in balance.
  13. First, inflation is irrelevant. Inflation is the change in the value of money, and therefore a rescaling in all prices. If the system followed true supply and demand, inflation is not a problem at all. Junk trading also has nothing to do with the true market value. "Street Value" is NOT the true market value, to be completely honest. Street value is distorted by the value of junk and the effort that goes into a junk / bounty hunter trade. However, if the GE price were fixed, then junk trades become impossible, BH trades impractical. Therefore, neither will distort the price. Third, "merchanting" (Is this even a word?) clans are also irrelevant. If 10,000 merchants each want 1,000 widgets tomorrow, then the demand for widgets has risen. It doesn't matter if they're going to turn around and sell them immediately, because for now, widgets are in high demand. When they drop these widgets back into the market, widgets will be in low demand, and there will be more than enough available. Price manipulation is simply factored into the supply and demand. The real problem is the GE centralization. Even far before the Grand Exchange existed, clans could manipulate prices by buying out a good and selling it the next day. The difference is that now, you simply go to the Grand Exchange and buy however much you want by typing the number in. Since almost all trades are conducted on the grand exchange, this means that they'll have a much easier time gathering the amounts they desire. However, there is a solution to this too... I still stand by my original suggestion I made when the Grand Exchange was released. - Prices should update based on both transactions and offers, not merely transactions. If 1,000 people sell widgets and 10,000 people want to buy widgets, it should look not only at the 1,000 people who bought their widgets, but also the 9,000 who seek to buy widgets but can not. - Prices should update at least once per hour, if not more often than that. The value of an item can change many times a day, and the Grand Exchange does not reflect that right now. Also, this will allow prices to correct themselves much faster. Take Dragon Claws, for instance. If it takes 48 days for Dragon Claw prices to be corrected with the current GE, the new GE would correct it in two. - Certain items should have tight restrictions on purchases and sales. For example, you can only buy 2 of each barrows item every 4 hours, and only sell 4 of each barrows item every 4 hours. This applies to the GE only. This means that for typical players, the GE is sufficient. You can go to the GE and sell your loot from the Barrows, or buy yourself a set of Veracs for a Kalphite Queen trip. If you need, say, 4 sets of karils for a Bounty Hunter trip with a clan, then you can either buy 2 sets 4 hours in advance, or you can purchase 2 sets on the GE, 2 sets from other people. However, if you want to buy 30 Guthan Spears because your clan is buying them up, you can do it... but be prepared to spend a few hours in world 2. And be prepared for the price to rise every hour. And be prepared to do this again when you want to dump the goods, because you can only sell 4 when you guys decide to dump them. - Discontinued items need to be changed. The risk of monopolization is too great for discontinued items. The easiest solution would be to prohibit a player from buying a rare item if you already own 4 or more of them. - Get rid of price floors, ceilings, and ties. 5 Adamant Arrow p++ should not cost the same as a Weapon poison p++ and 5 adamant arrows. Maple Longbow (u) should be allowed to fall lower than 144. There are other changes necessary of course, but these changes would solve most of the immediate problems.
  14. Magzar, you have an item that cost you 500k + 10 hours of work to get, and you are one of perhaps 100 players who can get the item. The GE prices the item at 300K. It is a godly good item that you enjoy using. Would you sell it for the 315k the GE permits? My guess is no. Because I know I wouldn't, nor would any sane person. I'd rather keep the item and use it myself, or wait until the price raises. Or if I get two of the items... why not sell it to my friend? There may be ten thousand people out there trying to buy it off the GE at the 300k price, because they KNOW it's worth more than that. And I know it. If I'm going to be throwing away all this value, I might as well do it as a favor to someone I know. I have no incentive, yes, NONE, to sell it on the GE. The 15K I'd gain from selling via the GE versus selling via trade is nothing, nothing compared to the 500k I spent and 10 hours of work. So everyone keeps it / sells to friends / waits. Guess what? The price doesn't change. In some instances, it's not too bad. Dragon Claws occasionally get coinshared and that accelerates the price fixture. But what about the spirit shields? Right now I'm more than willing to hand over all my cash for a Divine or Elysian spirit shield, which, for your information, far exceeds the grand exchange value. Yes, selling through the GE means you may gain another few million... but when you're dealing with amounts such as 100M coins, the 5M loss is minor... considering most people are willing to pay 400M+ for it if possible. Most people who do manage to get a Divine or Elysian Sigil in a drop sell it to their friend. This is why the GE is broken. There's is no reason whatsoever for us to want to sell the item on the Grand Exchange if the price is incorrect. "Fixing the price" does us no good if we sold the item to get there... sold the item at the WRONG price to get there.
  15. The rules of the real economy can certainly be applied to the RS economy as well. Just because goods in Runescape are not defined in the same way as goods in the real world does not mean the laws do not still apply. For example, in the real world, cooked food tends to cost more than raw food, while in Runescape, it does not behave the same way. This isn't because Runescape doesn't follow the fundamental laws of economics. This is because in Runescape, the desired benefits are not taste and nutrition. The desired benefits are the experience points and healing. Raw food supplies both. Cooked food supplies only one. Processing has its cost (burning, time), and its benefit (experience). Because the experience is valued more than the cost, raw food is more valuable than cooked food. As to the problem at hand, Junk Trading exists only because the Grand Exchange prices are wrong. Before you contradict me, let me ask you this: Who on earth is going to buy millions of maple longbow (u) at the Grand Exchange prices? The Grand Exchange values these items at 144 coins each. No one even uses COMPLETE Maple Longbows. The experience from stringing a Maple Longbow is minimal, and more expensive than simply buying and cutting more logs. Maple Log - Can be burned for FM xp - Can be fletched for Fletching xp Maple Longbow (U) - Can be completed for Fletching xp Maple Longbow - Can be used This is the problem. Maple longbow has no use. Bowstrings are too valuable to make completing a maple longbow viable. Maple logs are very easily collected, and typically a byproduct of the MTK mini-game, or woodcutting training. Maple Longbow (U) isn't completely worthless. You could sell it to the store for money. However, the ridiculously high, LOCKED, price tag makes this into a junk item. That is, you have an item worth perhaps 15 gp, being priced at 10 times it's value. On the flip side, you have items that are underpriced. For example, Dragon Claws come from a monster that can only be fought after completing almost every quest in the game. The monsters themselves cost a good sum of money to kill, for prayer potions and food. It's time consuming to battle tormented demons; each kill may take several minutes. It is dangerous, as they do a lot of damage and prayer will not protect you fully. Jagex is set on removing all easy methods to fight them (Just today, they removed the bow-darklight switching trick, meaning that to break its shield, you have to actually hit its higher defense with darklight.) The drop rates have been reduced since the original first day values. You can easily go hundreds of kills without seeing any dragon claws. Also, their other drops are mediocre at best. Or fairly rare, as in the case of dragon plate pieces. All in all, fighting these is NOT pleasant. Now look at the item itself. Dragon claws are easily one of the best dragon weapons in the game. They have max attack speed for a melee weapon (barring SC), they deal a respectable amount of damage (barely less than a Dragon Scimitar), their attack bonuses are passable, and they have an ungodly special. Keeping all this in mind... do you really think the GE price of 300k was anywhere near the real value of this item? I'm sorry, but at 1:200 drop rates... I'm NOT spending 10 hours killing these demons, spending over half a million on supplies and other repairs, risking death, all for a 300k item. After I get one for myself, I'm certainly not going back... unless it's for a friend, or to store up more in my bank in hopes the price will fix itself. In junk trading, you do not gain or lose any Grand Exchange value. However, you undoubtedly gain or lose REAL value, that is, what the item is really worth. The only way to truly fix junk trading is to either eliminate the set prices of the Grand Exchange (obvious, for several reasons), ensure that the item can be both purchased and sold at the Grand Exchange prices (this could be interesting, if not disastrous. You would essentially be putting every tradeable item into a store), or renovate the Grand Exchange so that its prices reflect the market for that item. Right now, the Grand Exchange follows the prices well on certain items. Here is the problem. Let's say at a price of 500K, supply is 5,000 units, demand is 6,000 units. In this case, demand exceeds supply by 1,000 units. The Grand Exchange ignores this fact. Instead, it looks at the 5,000 completed transactions, and uses that to judge its price change. This works most of the time, because when demand exceeds supply, they are likely to offer higher prices. If demand is less than supply, then the suppliers will offer minimum prices. Therefore, the price will adjust itself eventually, albeit slowly. However, imagine this situation. At a price of 120M, supply is 0 units, demand is 500 units. No one wants to sell the item at that price... NO ONE. If someone HAS to sell the item, they would much rather sell it to a friend. No transactions are completed, and thus what does the GE think? Supply matches demand. The average transaction is 0, so it assumes the median price and thinks the status quo is acceptable. Here's the other major problem. At a price of 144 GP, supply is 5,000,000 units. Demand is 500 units. 500 transactions are completed... obviously at the minimum price. However, Jagex has put a minimum price of 144 GP on this item. Therefore the price does not fall. This is the source of all our economical issues right now. The Grand Exchange needs to be fixed.
  16. And now, part B to the story. Let's say that you had tried the GE for about ten hours prior to this, and absolutely no one was selling the plate at max value. You notice on the forums that the only place people are selling it are on world 2, and you also have to buy their junk. If you really wanted the plate, then you really didn't have a say in whether or not you were getting someone else's unwanted rubbish. Charge as much as he wants? Yeah, that's fundamentally true, but if they don't charge the right price, then they won't get the trade. Oh, and I have no desire in getting a rare for cheap. I think that discontinued items should be expensive. I just don't like the idea of using rubbish to get there. It doesn't mean that you can charge as much as you like for an item, it simply means that you're fixing a "broken" system with even more problems. 1) How is our logic flawed if we're against junk trading? 2) A lot of people thought that bots weren't ruining the game in any way, too (dropping resource prices, etc), and that turned out to be wrong. Let me offer you a choice, A. Get your own Dragon Platebody. B. Live without it. The equivalent situation to yours is going into Falador W2 and asking to buy an Abyssal Whip for 500K pre-trade limitations. I'm not a fan of junk-trading myself, but it doesn't change the fact that the prices are WRONG. The current prices do not reflect the value of an item. If the prices are being set by a higher authority, then unless players are coerced to sell, or the higher authorities are selling the items themselves, then you can not expect to be able to buy / sell an item at the set price. If you won't pay the current, REAL price (a reasonable choice, seeing as it is circumventing limitations you support), then don't gripe about it after. But above all, understand that it is not a junk trader's fault for wanting to be able to trade goods at the proper prices.
  17. If you have a certain device that uses .sav files, then don't bother duplicating anything. Instead, look up "Pokesav". It lets you edit pretty much anything and everything about your game. - Create Pokemon, down to IV and EV - Change the amount of each item in your possession (Including Key Items) - Create Pokemon with / Give Pokemon illegal movesets and abilities (Silly, but whatever) - Trigger events (Want to go after Arceus, Shaymin, or Darkrai?) - Add your own event cards (Just visit the official website of Pokesav, and you can download the event event cards and load them. What's more, you can then share them with anyone who has a legit copy of the game and hasn't gotten that event card before.) - Change your position in the game (Badges, storyline, etc.) And loads more that escape me right now. It's been around for quite a while, although it may not work with platinum, seeing as platinum has not yet been released in the US. However, you can give them Platinum movesets via Pokesav too. And FYI, CB Scizor is evil. Scizor @ Choice Band Adamant, 204 HP, 252 Attack, 54 Speed - Bullet Punch - Pursuit - Superpower - U-Turn
  18. Indeed, now jagex needs to put zombie ourgs at jiggig Well the Ourg bones we know and love are ancestral and wrapped in linens and such. Unless we go and give Graardor some big last rights Bandos burial or something then it really is silly to expect him to drop his bones all wrapped in fancy ceremonial cloth. However, there was one Ourg that we kill that drops Ourg bones, but he was dead before we killed him so he doesn't really count as his body was already prepared and buried. That Ourg's name is... Slash Bash! Anyone remember how absolutely MASSIVE that guy was? I know, I know, it says he is a zogre, but what are zogres but just zombified orges and seeing as Fayrg, Raurg, and Ourg bones are all found there it should be safe to say a zogre can be one of those as well. Makes you wonder where the Fayrgs and Raurgs are... :ohnoes: And a bit off topic but this was my first post and hopefully not my last! :D *Wraps Big Bones from Graardor in fine silk, and pounds it repeatedly with an ancient mace.*
  19. Wait a second. Why do Ourgs drop Big Bones then? Shouldn't they drop Ourg Bones? Plothole zomg!
  20. Its actually the opposite. It's because the G.E. follows all the market fluctuations, including the "false demands" set by merchants buying/selling from merchants. False demand/Supply = False price = No use of the G.E. = Static Price = Junk Trades Jagex need to put caps and limit the number of higher level items even more in trading such as buying 1 GS per day, but that's another story for another topic. Aside Claws are to good of a PvP weapon to crash low G.E. If they do crash in price on the G.E. people will just go to junk trading again, and the cycle will repeat itself. If they are un-buyable high on the G.E. people junk trade low, and they turn into a party hat scenario. Either situation, once they go on sale through the G.E., they wont be there for long before clans either take the price out of control, or its pushed down and they need junk to be traded again. I can see many flaws in your post, but I am not going to bother responding to each for the simple reason that you do not understand the concept of supply and demand. The fundamental law of supply and demand states only that the true market price is the price at which an equal amount of people are willing to sell and buy the good. It does NOT take into account intent. If Jagex's system can not react to what you've called "false" demand, then it is obviously not following supply and demand and therefore it is flawed.
  21. This is not quite accurate, to be honest. It seems you are heavily biased against junk trades, from the tone of your post. - Claws continue to rise slowly, but steadily. As they are rising, the street price falls to meet it, because in reality, junk is not worthless. However, the change in street price happens in bursts rather than steadily like the GE price. - At one point, the GE price will be high enough to prompt people to sell their dragon claws (if desired). This is the point where the hassle of junk trading, + the potential value of their junk is not worth the extra profit. - Since people are beginning to sell, it's likely they'll get maximum price. The price will still raise, although dragon claws have become slightly easier to purchase. At this point, several things will happen: 1) Players who want to own Dragon Claws will realize they are available now, and some will purchase Dragon Claws. 2) People who have wanted to sell Dragon Claws, but haven't been willing to risk BH trades, and were too lazy to bother with other trade methods, will now be able to sell. 3) Merchants who noticed that Dragon Claws have hit "equilibrium" (in quotes, because this isn't quite true as I'll explain), will likely try to dump their claws and claim the profit they earned. - These three things happening simultaneously will have various results. This heavily depends on the price at which this will occur (likely around 15 - 25M). 1) Those people who want to own Dragon Claws may find themselves unable to afford it, or that its not worth the hefty price. The amount of people who will purchase them reduces. The higher the price, the less likely they'll be able to and choose to pay. 2) Most people who have held Dragon Claws from drops or lucky purchases early on will probably sell. The few people "on the fence" will reconsider, but that amount is minor. 3) Merchants will react in various ways. It's very hard to predict these, because there are so many organizations, and they seem to conflict with each other. Some will contribute to the increased supply, but it is hard to predict how many. The results: 1) Demand > Supply. This is, in my opinion, the best case scenario for the market as a whole. The price stabilized at a low enough point that enough people still want and can afford them. The huge built up stock mostly goes away. The price will still increase slowly, but it'll stop shortly after. The amount withheld by merchants will soon be released as well when they realize there is no gain. Depending on how much was withheld, a slight plunge may occur, but that's it. 2) Demand = Supply. This is the theoretical best case scenario. All the claws dropped into the market are bought up. Unfortunately, this doesn't take into account the withheld supply. The price will increase more, demand is satisfied perfectly, but this amount will throw it out of balance once more. The results will be similar to the first scenario, although it is more likely for the dip to occur. 3) Demand < Supply. This is the worst case scenario, but unfortunately, also the most likely scenario. - In situations 1 and 2, the market is happy and we can accept it as another normal item and move on. In situation 3, the market will certainly plunge. This will immediately cause a panic, and even some people happy with their dragon claws will want to sell, which will make the market fall faster. However, if supply increases faster than demand can increase in the short term, the price will become "stuck". Then you have dragon claws as junk. In essence, your original summary was one of the possible outcomes. However, it is not the fault of merchants. It is more the fault of the GE system itself. Jagex has failed continuously to provide us with up-to-date, accurate prices for goods that we want to buy. Junk trading is neither the fault or merchants nor the fault of RWTers. Junk trading is caused solely by the GE, and any problems tied to junk trading can also be tied directly to the poor design of the grand exchange. If the price becomes stuck the other way, it is because Jagex's system is a failure and can not follow the market fluctuations.
  22. Not true. A) Okay, now factor +5% strength prayer using Proselyte. B) Now factor that, pending on the current level, it DOESN'T INCREASE YOUR MAX HIT. Maybe every other level, it'll have an effect, but on the off levels, it doesn't. C) Most people who this thread applies to will be getting a Torso in 6 to 8 hours. Not 2. D) Wearing Torso just fails. Also, an increase in max hit doesn't necessarily equate an equal increase (percentage wise) in average hit. Especially since we don't know the precise formula that determines how much damage you actually deal, + you need to factor misses, so your whole percentage argument is flawed as well. Bottom line? Same as before. Torso isn't worth it if the sole reason you're considering playing BA is "Fighter's Torso has better stats."
  23. I doubt the drop rate has changed. I calculated from our clan's drop record, my own drop record, and the records of all those people who were killing Zilyana (back when the various methods existed) that a hilt was roughly 1:150 to 1:250. The other items were roughly 1:50 to 1:100. The thing with odds that low is that, A) When you spend a long time at GWD, it feels like you've spent even longer than you have, and it feels like you've killed more than you have. In other words, what you think is 400-500 kills might actually be 350. This happens to everyone, with almost every boss monster. It still feels like my friends and I have killed 300+ Corporeal Beasts, but our log shows 100, and we started the log not far in. B) The chance of you getting the drop in an amount of kills equal to the odds is lower. For example, imagine flipping a standard coin. The chance of getting a heads is 1/2. The chance of NOT getting a heads in two flips is 25%. Now, imagine rolling a standard 6-sided dice. The chance of getting a six is 1/6. The chance of NOT getting a six in six rolls is 33.5%. See the problem? Now, if we assume the upper end of my estimates were accurate, if you were to kill 250 Zilyanas starting right now, your chance of NOT getting a hilt in those 250 kills is 36.7%. Even if you were to kill a thousand Zilyanas from here on, you would still have a 2% chance of not getting a hilt. While that sounds low, it really isn't. Just look at all the people who get first kill Dragon Claws, or two Abyssal Whips in ten kills. It's very difficult to detect changes in drop rate, unless they are very significant. Some instances of this are the Tormented Demons that recently came out. Day 1, you got a dragon plate piece every 20 kills on average, and a pair of D claws every 50 kills or so. A month later, from several thousand kills worth of data, you are getting a dragon plate piece every 50-100 kills on average, and a pair of Dragon Claws every 300. However, it's unlikely for Jagex to go randomly change the drop rate of something that's been in place for over a year, without any particular reason. Don't get discouraged. As Jard already mentioned earlier, in all our clan's GWD history, we've had ONE clan hilt... and maybe 3 other GWD drops besides. Lady luck can really be a ***** at times.
  24. Games are meant to be fun, yes. But not every part of the game is fun. People find fun in different parts of the game. However, with MMORPGs, players are forced to do things they don't find fun. People who enjoy PKing have to put up with training, and skills for important quests that make PKing more enjoyable. Barbarian Assault isn't something that everyone enjoys. Fighter's Torso is a greatly overrated piece of equipment, considering how little benefit it offers and how much effort goes into it. As it's been said a dozen or so times on this thread, if you enjoy BA, then it doesn't matter. But if you don't enjoy BA, you are only doing it because everyone is telling you "The Torso is great!", then you should reconsider; the Fighter's Torso, if it is the sole reward for the 6-8 hours of BA necessary, is not worth it.
  25. 120 (average strength bonus with whip) /4 (for the exact boost the torso provides) *2 (to allow for strength bonus being only half of the formula, strength being the other half) / 100 (to convert to a percentage) = .6% (final allowance for how much of a boost fighter torso provides at a hypothetical 100% hitting rate) Testing to determine such an exact decimal would be virtually impossible; there are far too many variables, and far too much variance in combat to determine that. However, previous mathematical experiments of mine have proven that results in combat can be calculated with a high degree of accuracy if one simply has a general idea of the underlying factors behind combat hits and XP. I'll have a go to: - Player A with addy chain (using your average str bonus with whip): 120 strength bonus, killing zombies - Player B with Torso: 124 strength bonus, killing zombies. How much of an improved efficiency is this? (124-120)/120 *100% = 400/120 = 3.333% (the factor 2 is irrelevant, since Player A is regarded as the '100%'-individual.) Assuming your eight hours to get the torso, the experience loss will be made up by player B after 8/0.0333 = 240 hrs. Assuming both player A and B need an additional total of 36 million combat experience to max out to 99 att+str+def (allowing each player to have approx. 1 mill xp in each combat stat), then player B (Torso) will need around 12 hours less than Player A (Chain) to max out. In other words, is investing 8 hours into BA worth gaining 12 hours if you wouldn't? Anything I missed ? Yes, you missed quite a bit actually. 1) Your strength level is included in the calculation. 4 strength bonus is not a 3.333% increase in efficiency. In fact, +4 strength doesn't even always have an effect. If it does have an effect, it's a single point of damage higher. 2) Going off your maximum hit doesn't work either. Seeing as the distribution of hits is generally randomly distributed, the one point may not increase your average by a whole lot. 3) You are not factoring the potential gains of using +5% attack / strength prayer for slightly longer, in case of proselyte, or the higher defense, thus less time spent eating + earning food, in the case you are fighting something that does damage and thus rune is a better option. 4) After 65 defense, the +4 strength is meaningless, because of Bandos Chestplate... which you can also assume is FREE, because many people are more than willing to lend one to a friend or associate if they are not lending anything else. EDIT: From Tip.It's calculator: 80 Strength, +120 Strength Bonus, No potions or prayers, Controlled, max hit of 27. 80 Strength, +124 Strength Bonus, No potions or prayers, Controlled, max hit of 27. Admittedly, Tip.It's max hit calculator isn't fully accurate. However, pending my set up at the time, my max hit doesn't always increase when I put on Bandos Chestplate. When it does, it's never by more than 1. While these exact numbers might not hold true, the theory behind it does: that +4 strength does not always equate to an increase in damage. In other words, you are spending 6-12 hours on an item that's "unique" bonus isn't very useful, and occasionally has NO effect at all. It is also inferior in other aspects.

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