Untrue. It is very easy to predict when you will get a random by doing something over and over again such as killing a monster and then burying a bone youll most likely get a random. Agreed to test, take yourself off to moss/ice giants with some alchs, kill a load until you get a black shield, or mith spear, something worth alching, now alch it, unless you get it first drop you're pretty much guaranteed to get a random, then carry on killing, next item you get, alch. Again you'll probably get a random.