Spicy Stew Guide with Statistics

[MooseHole]

Table of Contents

 

1.0. Introduction

 

2.0. Spice Colors for Each Skill

 

3.0. Items Needed

 

4.0. Procedure

 

5.0. Amount of Stews and Doses to Gather

 

5.1. 90% certainty

 

5.2. 50% certainty

 

6.0. Doses to Use in Each Stew

 

7.0. Notes

 

8.0. Acknowledgements

 

The next post in this thread covers statistical analysis.

 

 

 

1.0. Introduction

 

After completing the Evil Dave part of the Recipe for Disaster Quest, you can make Stew with the spices in it, called Spicy Stew. This is useful because it gives a skill modification in the range of +/- 2 for each dose of spice you put into it. Spicy Stew can hold a maximum of 3 doses of each color of spice, for up to a +6 skill modification.

 

 

 

So if you need 6 more levels to make that Amulet of Fury, build that Gilded Altar, plant that Spirit Tree, or anything else you may want, you can spice up some stew and get the skill level you need!

 

 

 

 

 

2.0. Spice Colors for Each Skill

 

 

Here are which spice colors raise/lower which skills (taken from tip.it cooking guide):

 

* red (combat): Attack, Defence, Ranged, Strength, and Magic

 

* orange (skillcraft): Construction, Cooking, Crafting, Fletching, Runecrafting, and Smithing

 

* yellow (self-improvement): Agility, Prayer, Slayer and Thieving

 

* brown (gathering): Farming, Fishing, Firemaking, Herblore, Mining and Woodcutting

 

 

 

You may add more than one color of spice to the stew, for a maximum of 12 doses in a stew (3 of each of the 4 colors). When you add a spice to a stew, all skills related to that color are affected by the skill modification. That means that, for example, you can be ready to use two different skills before eating the stew. When you eat your stew, you can check to see which skill has met the required level, and use it. If you're lucky, you can use both skills before they start returning to their base levels.

 

 

 

 

 

3.0. Items Needed

 

 

*Stew. You can cook this using a bowl, water, raw potato, and raw meat. It can also be bought from the waiter in Seers but it's slow because you have to talk to him for each bowl. Refer to the Amount of Stews and Doses to Gather table below to see how many you need.

 

 

 

 

*Cat. Kittens are the worst at catching rats. Cats are better, and Wily Cats are the best. Be careful because your Wily Cat can turn into a Lazy Cat if you walk around with it a lot and don't catch many rats. I'm not sure exactly how bad Lazy Cats are at catching rats, but they're not very good at it. Overgrown Cats can not catch rats here, so if you have one you'll either have to upgrade it to a Wily Cat after doing the Rat Catchers quest, or else start over with a Kitten.

 

 

 

 

*Super restore potion or other stat boosting item***. For example, I use garden pies for Farming stat boosts, and tea for Construction stat boosts (also remember the Crystal Saw stacks +3 invisible Construction levels onto your current construction level).

 

 

 

 

 

4.0. Procedure

 

 

1. Take your cat to Evil Dave's basement in Edgeville. Catch hellrats with it and take the spice jars. If you only want them for a specific skill, don't take the colors that you don't need. Spice jars can be put together the way potions do, so combine them as much as possible and drop the empty jars. Refer to the Amount of Stews and Doses to Gather table below to see how many you need.

 

 

 

 

2. Take your spice jars and as many bowls of stew as they can fill, along with your stat booster and get ready to use your skill.

 

 

 

 

3. Spice up a stew with as many spices as you need. Refer to the Doses to Use in Each Stew table below.

 

 

 

 

4. Eat the stew. You may want to wait until after a "tick" before doing this so you don't lose any levels you will gain. You can check for the "tick" by checking any currently raised or lowered stat (except prayer) and waiting for it to get 1 level closer to the base amount.

 

 

 

 

5a. If you are at the skill level you need, go ahead and use your skill to do what you wanted to do until your skill falls below your desired level.

 

 

 

 

5b. If you have lost skill levels in the skill you need, restore your skill level using your stat booster.****

 

 

 

6. Repeat from step 3 or step 1 as necessary.

 

 

 

 

 

5.0. Amount of Stews and Doses to Gather

 

5.1. 90% certainty

 

If you want to gather all your resources once and then try to get your level gain, you can use the table below. If you use these amounts, you will gain your level before the resources run out 9 times out of 10*. The next post in this thread gives more information about this topic.

 

 

 

90% certainty*:

 

Skill gain +1: use 5 bowls of 1 dose stew, collect 5 doses

 

Skill gain +2: use 11 bowls of 1 dose stew, collect 11 doses

 

Skill gain +3: use 18 bowls of 2 dose stew, collect 36 doses

 

Skill gain +4: use 28 bowls of 3 dose stew, collect 84 doses

 

Skill gain +5: use 71 bowls of 3 dose stew, collect 213 doses

 

Skill gain +6: use 287 bowls of 3 dose stew, collect 861 doses

 

 

 

5.2. 50% certainty

 

If you don't mind re-gathering resources if you have failed to gain your level, the table below shows what you should gather if you would like to gain your level 1/2 of the time*.

 

 

 

50% certainty*:

 

Skill gain +1: use 2 bowls of 1 dose stew, collect 2 doses

 

Skill gain +2: use 4 bowls of 1 dose stew, collect 4 doses

 

Skill gain +3: use 4 bowls of 3** dose stew, collect 12 doses

 

Skill gain +4: use 9 bowls of 3 dose stew, collect 27 doses

 

Skill gain +5: use 22 bowls of 3 dose stew, collect 66 doses

 

Skill gain +6: use 87 bowls of 3 dose stew, collect 261 doses

 

 

 

 

 

6.0. Doses to Use in Each Stew

 

If you want to minimize how many doses of spice to use in each stew, because gathering spices is time intensive, check the table below. The next post in this thread gives more information about this topic.

 

 

 

Skill gain +1: Use 1 dose stews.

 

Skill gain +2: Use 1 dose stews.

 

Skill gain +3: Use 2 dose stews.

 

Skill gain +4: Use 3 dose stews.

 

Skill gain +5: Use 3 dose stews.

 

Skill gain +6: Use 3 dose stews.

 

 

 

 

 

7.0. Notes

 

* These are the degrees of certainty (sometimes called probability of probability) that you will succeed given that you've gathered all the materials before the attempt. Since they are probabilities, you can never be 100% certain about any of it. You could gain 6 levels with every 3 dose stew you take, or you could never even gain 1 level with any stew even after you've tried a million of them, but both of these scenarios are improbable. If you fail on your first run using the 1/2 Degree of Certainty table, you have 1/2 Degree of Certainty again when starting your next run.

 

 

 

** The dosage table says to use 2 dose stew for +3 skill level gains, but 12 doses give the same probability of success whether you use 4 bowls of 3 dose stew or 6 bowls of 2 dose stew. Since you need to gather the same amount of doses, but can use less bowls of stew in this instance, the choice using the minimum number of stews is presented.

 

 

 

*** If you have a stat boosting item that can raise you to the level required already, the use it instead of Spicy Stew. For instance, if you can make a garden pie, which gives +3 Farming levels, and you want +3 Farming levels, just eat your garden pie. It's much faster and easier than using Spicy Stew.

 

 

 

**** I've found out through experimentation that having at least your base level before eating a stew really is necessary. I had a base skill of 66, ate 3 dose stew and got 63, then ate another 3 dose stew and got 59.

 

 

 

 

 

8.0. Acknowledgements

 

* Marvel A for putting up with me while I wrote this guide.

 

* Lady Sarah74 for suggesting that I use pictures and font colors.

 

* panthers4091 for suggesting that I remove the "and Stuff" from the title.

 

* wurmskin for making the guide-guide that says to use a Table of Contents and numbers in the headings, and an Acknowledgements section.

 

* tip.it for providing the information about which spice colors correlate to which skills.

 

* Spatulus for letting me know that overgrown cats can't catch rats except in the Rat Pits.

 

* Sir Hartlar and Aoe325 for informing me that the spice jars can be combined like potions.

 

* pokemama for suggesting a note in the first post about the content in the second post.

 

* game_proffy for suggesting a note that one stew can be used for more than one skill at a time.

[MooseHole]

Table of Contents

 

1.0. Introduction

 

2.0. Finding probabilities per stew

 

2.1. Finding probabilities per 1 dose stew

 

2.2. Finding probabilities per 2 dose stew

 

2.3. Finding probabilities per 3 dose stew

 

2.4. Probabilities sorted by skill level needed

 

3.0. Number of stews required

 

4.0. Number of doses required

 

5.0. Results

 

6.0. Conclusion

 

7.0. Acknowledgements

 

 

 

1.0. Introduction

 

I recently collected a whole lot of stew spices from Evil Dave's basement so I could build a gilded altar in my house. I originally was going for a 6 level gain using 3 doses of orange spice, but found after many tries that I just wasn't getting there. I instead decided to gain one more level of construction so that I only needed 5 more levels to get to the level I needed. The result was that I still needed a lot of stew but was able to finally achieve the level I needed and built the altar.

 

 

 

I then was curious about how many stews I really needed to be reasonably certain of getting the level. I further reasoned that the most time consuming part of the process is collecting the spices (even with my wily cat), because obtaining stew is fairly easy and a relatively quick process.

 

 

 

I did a bunch of computations to figure out how many stews are needed and how many doses I need and everything. I included these computations below so that you can recompute things if you need it done a different way, and also so that I can get feedback if I messed anything up in my reasoning or computations.

 

 

 

The results of these computations are already listed in the previous post, so you shouldn't have to read this post unless you like math or are a masochist or something..

 

 

 

2.0. Finding probabilities per stew

 

Below are the tables I made to figure out the probabilities of getting certain amounts of skill gains given a certain number of doses in the stew. I am only interested in numbers above zero because anything lower is useless to me. Also, if I only need +1 skill level for example, +2 skill levels also works, so the total of any higher amount of skill levels is added into the total for the current skill level.

 

 

 

2.1. Finding probabilities per 1 dose stew

 

The fundamental idea of this entire process lies in the probabilities for the 1 dose stew. This is an assumption that the skill modification is random and has an equal probability of being any of the 5 possible outcomes.

 

 

 

1 dose stew:

 

-2, -1, +0, +1, +2

 

Probability of at least +1: 2/5 = 40.0%

 

Probability of at least +2: 1/5 = 20.0%

 

 

 

2.2. Finding probabilities per 2 dose stew

 

Another assumption is made here, which is that the doses independently raise or lower stats, without any regard for the other doses in the stew. It is possible that for this 2 dose stew, there is a 1/9 chance of any outcome between -4 and +4. I do not believe this is the case because it doesn't seem to match up with my experiences. It may also be possible that different colors of spices interact with eachother to change probabilities as well. I will perform extensive empirical analyses soon in order to check for these possibilities and any others that may arise.

 

 

 

2 dose stew:

 

-2-2, -2-1, -2+0, -2+1, -2+2

 

-1-2, -1-1, -1+0, -1+1, -1+2

 

+0-2, +0-1, +0+0, +0+1, +0+2

 

+1-2, +1-1, +1+0, +1+1, +1+2

 

+2-2, +2-1, +2+0, +2+1, +2+2

 

OR

 

-4, -3, -2, -1, +0

 

-3, -2, -1, +0, +1

 

-2, -1, +0, +1, +2

 

-1, +0, +1, +2, +3

 

+0, +1, +2, +3, +4

 

Probability of at least +1:10/25 = 40.0%

 

Probability of at least +2: 6/25 = 24.0%

 

Probability of at least +3: 3/25 = 12.0%

 

Probability of at least +4: 1/25 = 4.0%

 

 

 

2.3. Finding probabilities per 3 dose stew

 

3 dose stew:

 

-2-2-2, -2-2-1, -2-2+0, -2-2+1, -2-2+2

 

-2-1-2, -2-1-1, -2-1+0, -2-1+1, -2-1+2

 

-2+0-2, -2+0-1, -2+0+0, -2+0+1, -2+0+2

 

-2+1-2, -2+1-1, -2+1+0, -2+1+1, -2+1+2

 

-2+2-2, -2+2-1, -2+2+0, -2+2+1, -2+2+2

 

-1-2-2, -1-2-1, -1-2+0, -1-2+1, -1-2+2

 

-1-1-2, -1-1-1, -1-1+0, -1-1+1, -1-1+2

 

-1+0-2, -1+0-1, -1+0+0, -1+0+1, -1+0+2

 

-1+1-2, -1+1-1, -1+1+0, -1+1+1, -1+1+2

 

-1+2-2, -1+2-1, -1+2+0, -1+2+1, -1+2+2

 

+0-2-2, +0-2-1, +0-2+0, +0-2+1, +0-2+2

 

+0-1-2, +0-1-1, +0-1+0, +0-1+1, +0-1+2

 

+0+0-2, +0+0-1, +0+0+0, +0+0+1, +0+0+2

 

+0+1-2, +0+1-1, +0+1+0, +0+1+1, +0+1+2

 

+0+2-2, +0+2-1, +0+2+0, +0+2+1, +0+2+2

 

+1-2-2, +1-2-1, +1-2+0, +1-2+1, +1-2+2

 

+1-1-2, +1-1-1, +1-1+0, +1-1+1, +1-1+2

 

+1+0-2, +1+0-1, +1+0+0, +1+0+1, +1+0+2

 

+1+1-2, +1+1-1, +1+1+0, +1+1+1, +1+1+2

 

+1+2-2, +1+2-1, +1+2+0, +1+2+1, +1+2+2

 

+2-2-2, +2-2-1, +2-2+0, +2-2+1, +2-2+2

 

+2-1-2, +2-1-1, +2-1+0, +2-1+1, +2-1+2

 

+2+0-2, +2+0-1, +2+0+0, +2+0+1, +2+0+2

 

+2+1-2, +2+1-1, +2+1+0, +2+1+1, +2+1+2

 

+2+2-2, +2+2-1, +2+2+0, +2+2+1, +2+2+2

 

OR

 

-6, -5, -4, -3, -2

 

-5, -4, -3, -2, -1

 

-4, -3, -2, -1, +0

 

-3, -2, -1, +0, +1

 

-2, -1, +0, +1, +2

 

-5, -4, -3, -2, -1

 

-4, -3, -2, -1, +0

 

-3, -2, -1, +0, +1

 

-2, -1, +0, +1, +2

 

-1, +0, +1, +2, +3

 

-4, -3, -2, -1, +0

 

-3, -2, -1, +0, +1

 

-2, -1, +0, +1, +2

 

-1, +0, +1, +2, +3

 

+0, +1, +2, +3, +4

 

-3, -2, -1, +0, +1

 

-2, -1, +0, +1, +2

 

-1, +0, +1, +2, +3

 

+0, +1, +2, +3, +4

 

+1, +2, +3, +4, +5

 

-2, -1, +0, +1, +2

 

-1, +0, +1, +2, +3

 

+0, +1, +2, +3, +4

 

+1, +2, +3, +4, +5

 

+2, +3, +4, +5, +6

 

Probability of at least +1: 53/125 = 42.4%

 

Probability of at least +2: 35/125 = 28.0%

 

Probability of at least +3: 20/125 = 16.0%

 

Probability of at least +4: 10/125 = 8.0%

 

Probability of at least +5: 4/125 = 3.2%

 

Probability of at least +6: 1/125 = .8%

 

 

 

2.4. Probabilities sorted by skill level needed

 

Probability of at least +1 1 dose: 2/5 = 40.0%

 

Probability of at least +1 2 dose: 10/25 = 40.0%

 

Probability of at least +1 3 dose: 53/125 = 42.4%

 

 

 

Probability of at least +2 1 dose: 1/5 = 20.0%

 

Probability of at least +2 2 dose: 6/25 = 24.0%

 

Probability of at least +2 3 dose: 35/125 = 28.0%

 

 

 

Probability of at least +3 2 dose: 3/25 = 12.0%

 

Probability of at least +3 3 dose: 20/125 = 16.0%

 

 

 

Probability of at least +4 2 dose: 1/25 = 4.0%

 

Probability of at least +4 3 dose: 10/125 = 8.0%

 

 

 

Probability of at least +5 3 dose: 4/125 = 3.2%

 

 

 

Probability of at least +6 3 dose: 1/125 = .8%

 

 

 

3.0. Number of stews required

 

Now that I have the probabilities, I can find the number of stews needed to obtain my goal with a given degree of certainty. I want to be pretty sure that I'll get the level I want without having to repeat the process, so I selected a degree of certainty of 90% that I'll reach my goal using a certain amount of stews prepared. The equation for this is (Degree of Certainty)=1-(1-Probability)^Stews, or Stews=[log(1-(Degree of Certainty)]/[log(1-Probability)]. I rounded all my total stews upward since you can't eat less than 1 stew at a time.

 

Degree of certainty 90% of at least +1 1 dose: 4.5 ~= 5 Stews

 

Degree of certainty 90% of at least +1 2 dose: 4.5 ~= 5 Stews

 

Degree of certainty 90% of at least +1 3 dose: 4.2 ~= 5 Stews

 

 

 

Degree of certainty 90% of at least +2 1 dose: 10.3 ~= 11 Stews

 

Degree of certainty 90% of at least +2 2 dose: 8.4 ~= 9 Stews

 

Degree of certainty 90% of at least +2 3 dose: 7.0 ~= 7 Stews

 

 

 

Degree of certainty 90% of at least +3 2 dose: 18.0 ~= 18 Stews

 

Degree of certainty 90% of at least +3 3 dose: 13.2 ~= 14 Stews

 

 

 

Degree of certainty 90% of at least +4 2 dose: 56.4 ~= 57 Stews

 

Degree of certainty 90% of at least +4 3 dose: 27.6 ~= 28 Stews

 

 

 

Degree of certainty 90% of at least +5 3 dose: 70.8 ~= 71 Stews

 

 

 

Degree of certainty 90% of at least +6 3 dose: 286.7 ~= 287 Stews

 

 

 

4.0. Number of doses required

 

I now know how many stews I should use to reach my goal. But since gathering the spices is the worst part of the process, I had to multiply the number of doses used in each stew by the number of stews used to find out how many doses I need to reach my goal.

 

Degree of certainty 90% of at least +1 1 dose: 5 Stews = 5 Doses

 

Degree of certainty 90% of at least +1 2 dose: 5 Stews = 10 Doses

 

Degree of certainty 90% of at least +1 3 dose: 5 Stews = 15 Doses

 

 

 

Degree of certainty 90% of at least +2 1 dose: 11 Stews = 11 Doses

 

Degree of certainty 90% of at least +2 2 dose: 9 Stews = 18 Doses

 

Degree of certainty 90% of at least +2 3 dose: 7 Stews = 21 Doses

 

 

 

Degree of certainty 90% of at least +3 2 dose: 18 Stews = 36 Doses

 

Degree of certainty 90% of at least +3 3 dose: 14 Stews = 42 Doses

 

 

 

Degree of certainty 90% of at least +4 2 dose: 57 Stews = 114 Doses

 

Degree of certainty 90% of at least +4 3 dose: 28 Stews = 84 Doses

 

 

 

Degree of certainty 90% of at least +5 3 dose: 71 Stews = 213 Doses

 

 

 

Degree of certainty 90% of at least +6 3 dose: 287 Stews = 861 Doses

 

 

 

5.0. Results

 

Now that I know how many doses I need to reasonably reach the skill level I need with each dose level of stew, I can finally find the minimum number of doses needed for each skill level. The results are shown below.

 

 

 

Skill level needed, how many bowls of stew needed, how many doses needed per bowl, and how many total doses needed for 90% certainty of reaching the skill level:

 

Skill gain +1: use 5 bowls of 1 dose stew, collect 5 doses

 

Skill gain +2: use 11 bowls of 1 dose stew, collect 11 doses

 

Skill gain +3: use 18 bowls of 2 dose stew, collect 36 doses

 

Skill gain +4: use 28 bowls of 3 dose stew, collect 84 doses

 

Skill gain +5: use 71 bowls of 3 dose stew, collect 213 doses

 

Skill gain +6: use 287 bowls of 3 dose stew, collect 861 doses

 

 

 

6.0. Conclusion

 

It really is tough to gain 6 levels using stew. You should probably gain as many levels as time and money will allow before attempting to do that high skill level thing you intend to do, since each level will significantly reduce the amount of resources you need to gather to achieve your goal.

 

 

 

Good luck!

 

 

 

7.0. Acknowledgements

 

* Marvel A for putting up with me while I wrote this guide.

 

* Lady Sarah74 for suggesting that I use font colors.

 

* profm2 for suggesting that the doses don't necessarily give equal weighting to all possibilities.

 

* wurmskin for making the guide-guide that says to use a Table of Contents and numbers in the headings, and an Acknowledgements section.

 

* pokemama for suggesting that I perform additional empirical analyses.

 

* game_proffy for suggesting the "merging" theory, in which all possible outcomes of multiple dose stews are given equal weight.

[SirHartlar]

This guide is AOW material, absolutely brilliant. I can't fault your data and you have presented your information amazingly. =D>

 

 

 

Just one thing, it says that the spices can't be put together like potions. I am sure they can, I usually take the one dose one and the three doses ones together to make four doses. Might need to check that I am not 100% sure. :?

[MooseHole]

Just one thing, it says that the spices can't be put together like potions. I am sure they can, I usually take the one dose one and the three doses ones together to make four doses. Might need to check that I am not 100% sure. :?

I'm pretty sure you can't as I've tried it before, but I could be wrong. I can't get on until later to check again, could you please give me an update if you're able to check before that? Thanks!

[panthers4091]

Awesome guide, I've been wondering about these stews for a while. 10/10

 

 

 

Also, you may want to get rid of the "and stuff" in your title, it makes it less appealing.

[MooseHole]

Also, you may want to get rid of the "and stuff" in your title, it makes it less appealing.

Good point, is has been removed. Thanks!

[soulegleon]

I would agree with Sir Hartlar, definitely AOW material.

 

 

 

no flaws i can see and you have basically said everything there is to say about the spices, which leaves small or no room for improvement or additions, which is jsut that way it should be

 

 

 

10/10

[spatulus13]

brilliant guide, although i spotted one teeny little problem

 

Overgrown Cats are better than that

 

overgrown cats cant actually catch rats according to the knowledge base

[MooseHole]

overgrown cats cant actually catch rats according to the knowledge base

Ah, thank you for the information! I'll update the guide immediately.

[Jacksai]

This is an awsome guide. AOW for sure. :thumbsup:

[FastForce]

Nice guide I like it.

 

Very extensive and detailed 8-)

[pikachu54673]

WOW!

 

 

 

Very, very, very good. You obviously took a lot of time and research doing this.

 

 

 

I vote AOW :D

[aoe325]

This is a good guide, but I see you've been proceding unnefiently for I am SURE that :

 

- Spices DO stack like potion.

 

- You dont need to restore your stats after every try.

 

 

 

And for both of these statements you presented as a fact something you experienced once only... :-s

 

 

 

Someone believing these 2 statements would lost so much time using stews! :shock:

 

 

 

 

 

Sorry to be so negative but these are two huges mistakes that have to corrected.

[Ltje]

This guide is AOW material, absolutely brilliant. I can't fault your data and you have presented your information amazingly. =D>

 

 

 

 

 

 

I agree. :)

[MooseHole]

This is a good guide, but I see you've been proceding unnefiently for I am SURE that :

 

- Spices DO stack like potion.

 

- You dont need to restore your stats after every try.

 

 

 

And for both of these statements you presented as a fact something you experienced once only... :-s

 

 

 

Someone believing these 2 statements would lost so much time using stews! :shock:

 

 

 

 

 

Sorry to be so negative but these are two huges mistakes that have to corrected.

Ok, I just experimented on these two points and yes, the spices really do stack like potion! I'll update the guide tomorrow when I have time.

 

 

 

However, I also checked and confirmed that the stats still need to be restored every time they go below the base amount. I used a 3 dose orange stew and my Crafting went from 68 to 62. Then I took another stew and my Crafting was at 58. I tried again and my Crafting was at 60 (still more than 6 below the base level).

 

 

 

Thanks for the feedback!

[pokemama]

I'm liking this guide as it's about an interesting subject that NOBODY has looked at - big bonus points for that!! :thumbsup:

 

 

 

It also has good organisation (I suggest putting a note in the first post stating that a second post covers statistical/analytical details?)

 

 

 

I have only one qualm. Your analysis is mostly theoretical and not empirical - meaning the majority of the info has not been actually tested in game (doing stews until you finally get the result you wanted.)

 

 

 

One Crewbie I know made 100 stews trying to get a construction result - I'll try to ask him to check out this thread.

 

 

 

I'll be keeping my eye on this topic, it's very promising. \

[game_proffy]

I have a question.

 

 

 

You base all your probability calculations based on the assumption that each dose added in stwes with more than one dose (2 and 3-dose) has different probabilities. What you say is that 1-dose stew has 5^1 = 5 outcomes, 2-dose stew has 5^2 = 25 outcomes, and 3-dose stew has 5^3 = 125 outcomes:

 

 

 

-2 -2 -2

 

-1 -1 -1

 

0 0 0

 

+1 +1 +1

 

+2 +2 +2

 

 

 

It is a highly plausible assumption. However, are you entirely sure that when one more dose is added, they are not "merging" together? I.e. in such a way, a 3-dose stew would have 13 outcomes, which would have all equal chances of succession, and the +6 - modification would have a chance of 1/13 ~ 8%.

 

 

 

Have there been any confirmation to either of the theories?

 

 

 

Also, could you please add to your guide that you can combine certain skills when eating stews. For example, if eating orange spice at house to get a gilded altar, you can take some crafting amterials with you which you have too low lvl to create. That way, if you get a desired +skill bonus in crafting, you can use it to your advantage, and not just let it fade away aimlessly.

[jedidude77]

i agree, spectacular guide, and no one has even touched on this in the past, i too believe this is AOW material.... :XD:

[MooseHole]

I suggest putting a note in the first post stating that a second post covers statistical/analytical details?

Sure, that's a good idea.

I have only one qualm. Your analysis is mostly theoretical and not empirical - meaning the majority of the info has not been actually tested in game (doing stews until you finally get the result you wanted.)

It is a highly plausible assumption. However' date=' are you entirely sure that when one more dose is added, they are not "merging" together? I.e. in such a way, a 3-dose stew would have 13 outcomes, which would have all equal chances of succession, and the +6 - modification would have a chance of 1/13 ~ 8%.

 

 

 

Have there been any confirmation to either of the theories?[/quote']

I originally was going for a 6 level gain using 3 doses of orange spice, but found after many tries that I just wasn't getting there. I instead decided to gain one more level of construction so that I only needed 5 more levels to get to the level I needed. The result was that I still needed a lot of stew but was able to finally achieve the level I needed and built the altar.

As the quoted passage from the introduction to the second post states, I have tried this method for large level gains, and have done so many times before the incident cited. I used to think there was a 1/13 chance of getting any level, but after trying hundreds of stews I know this is most probably not the case. However, it still is certainly a possibility that it works a different way than I have stated here, so I'll go ahead and post a few other possible theories about it in the second post when I'm able to (later today). I also have a bunch of unneeded orange spice laying around, so I'll do some trial runs with it and see if I can find out if the results resemble my calculations (even later today).

Also' date=' could you please add to your guide that you can combine certain skills when eating stews.[/quote']I've never used them in this way, since it's hard enough to get any skills positive enough to use them, and the skills return to their base levels pretty quickly. However, I'll make a note of this method when I edit the guide later because it could come in handy for somebody.

 

 

 

Thanks to everybody for the feedback, keep it coming!

[dkjestrup]

I completely agree with everyone saying this is a great topic and should AOW etc but one thing you could add (not 100% sure you didn't could be bothered to read ALL) is how to make stews. Also your account has the same melee stats as me (not including HP) 66 att 68 str 63 def! check my sig. your sig owns though (noobs ftw :XD: )

[latinohead]

So do I need to make 287 Stews with 3 doses orange spice to get +6 construction lvls?

[Xzavier93]

AOW? =D>

 

 

 

Nice Job, Im going to need to get a +5 level boost in smithing for MEP so what should i do i DID complete RFD =) so if you wonderin i know how to do it all i just didnt really get the whole guide thing =p

[Ltje]

So do I need to make 287 Stews with 3 doses orange spice to get +6 construction lvls?

 

 

 

More or less, yes. With that 287 stews you have a 90% change of getting a +6 once. But thats no guarantee! Theoretically you could get 287 times +6, but you could also get not a +6 at all!

[MooseHole]

AOW? =D>

 

 

 

Nice Job, Im going to need to get a +5 level boost in smithing for MEP so what should i do i DID complete RFD =) so if you wonderin i know how to do it all i just didnt really get the whole guide thing =p

Please refer to sections 5.0 and 6.0 of the first post and you'll see what you should do.

[MooseHole]

Evidence Update:

 

I've collected about 200 jars of spice and catalogued what I caught by color and amount. It looks like there's an equal weighting for all possibilities since there's a pretty low standard deviation, but I need to do more trials to be sure. I also tracked how long it takes to catch a rat and pick up the bottle (looks to be about 10.5 seconds), and I'll use that and other things to estimate how long it might take to collect certain amounts of spices. This should prove very useful because people can gauge how long it takes to get to the next skill level against how long it takes to collect the additional amount of spice to get another skill level out of stew.

 

 

 

I'm also keeping track of how many times the Wily Cat does NOT catch a rat when I tell it to. It's looking to be about 25% of the time but I'll keep tracking that. If anyone could provide any HARD evidence of other types of cat missing frequency, I'd greatly appreciate it. The way to do this is to decide when you're going to start recording the data, and record exactly how many times you hit and how many times you missed. If you throw out a run because you missed a lot that time or something then the data is worthless, I need a random sampling not a "good run" (or "bad run" or "medium run" for that matter).

 

 

 

I plan to make about 1000 12 dose stews (3 doses of each color) and record all the skill modifications using a movie. I'll also make sure I have some damage done to me before every stew so I can track when the results are modified by the tick. This should hopefully give enough statistical evidence that my probabilities are based on a correct analysis or not. If anyone could donate a whole bunch of stews, I'd be very grateful.