October 12, 201015 yr So I've recently gotten 85 slayer, and I've been killing abby demons ever since. So far I'm at around ~1500 kills. My drops(the rare ones atleast) have been: 14 Tooth half of a keys3.5k P ess9 Rune chains3 Rune Sq shields1 Rune kite1 Rune 2hShield Left Half(this is super rare isn't it?)And various other drops, I've gotten nearly every drop on their drop list EXCEPT the whip, is that normal?
October 12, 201015 yr yes, it is normal to make false conclusions when you have a small sample size How to Chin Nechyraels for fast XP and profit
October 12, 201015 yr Author yes, it is normal to make false conclusions when you have a small sample size Where in my post did I make a conclusion?
October 12, 201015 yr Whip is a 1:512 drop (as revealed in Runefest)Statistically speaking, there is an 8.66% chance that you'll have a 1.5k dry streak.So it's pretty normal.
October 12, 201015 yr any amount of dry streak is normal because drop rates are not set in stone. You have the same chance of getting a whip on kill #1 as you do on kills #80 and #1320 Try getting a staff of light before your first whip like I did. Fisher/Woodcut------Me-----Miner/crafter----Stabber----Leecher ^Golvellius must be so proud^
October 12, 201015 yr Like everything else is runescape its all random. I have had 3 whips drop in one task and then do 4 tasks no whip. Just keep at it.
October 12, 201015 yr just unlucky. Dragon drops: 82 (2 claws)Dagannoth kings drops: 73Barrows item count: 51GWD drops: 54 (5 hilts: 1x bandos, 3x saradomin, 1x zamorak)Whips: 4Sigils: 1x spectral (FFA), 1x arcane (FFA)
October 12, 201015 yr Wait until you are 12+ tasks dry... As well as 11 tasks dry at ISW. [hide=Drops]Araxxor Eye x1 Leg pieces x2GWD: 5000 Addy bar Steam B Staff x3 Z Spear x6 Sara. Hilt x2 Bandos Hilt x2 (LS, Solo)SS x6 (1 LS)Tormented Demons: Shard x6 Slice x5 Claws x9 Limbs x3DKS: Archer x21 Warrior x31 Berserker x30 Axe x51[/hide]
October 12, 201015 yr Whip is a 1:512 drop (as revealed in Runefest)Statistically speaking, there is an 8.66% chance that you'll have a 1.5k dry streak.So it's pretty normal. Wait.. What? Could you explain that math? (I just don't understand it, not implying you're wrong). Thanks to Uno for the awsome sig <3
October 12, 201015 yr Whip is a 1:512 drop (as revealed in Runefest)Statistically speaking, there is an 8.66% chance that you'll have a 1.5k dry streak.So it's pretty normal. Wait.. What? Could you explain that math? (I just don't understand it, not implying you're wrong). Boring math[hide] χ2 Goodness of fit Test For whips, the expected frequency was 2.93 and the observed was 0.For not-whips, the expected frequency was 1497.07 and the observed was 1500.χ2= (2.93-0)2/2.93 + (1497.07-1500)2/1497.07 = 2.936p = χ2 cdf (2.936, ∞, 1 df) = .0866[/hide]
October 12, 201015 yr Goodness of fit Test For whips, the expected frequency was 2.93 and the observed was 0.For not-whips, the expected frequency was 1497.07 and the observed was 1500.χ2= (2.93-0)2/2.93 + (1497.07-1500)2/1497.07 = 2.936p = χ2 cdf (2.936, ∞, 1 df) = .0866[/hide]Is this wrong then? The chance of not getting a whip is 511/512, so the probability of not getting a whip 1500 times in a row is (511/512)^1500 = .0532... = 5.32% Come dance.
October 13, 201015 yr Goodness of fit Test For whips, the expected frequency was 2.93 and the observed was 0.For not-whips, the expected frequency was 1497.07 and the observed was 1500.χ2= (2.93-0)2/2.93 + (1497.07-1500)2/1497.07 = 2.936p = χ2 cdf (2.936, ∞, 1 df) = .0866[/hide]Is this wrong then? The chance of not getting a whip is 511/512, so the probability of not getting a whip 1500 times in a row is (511/512)^1500 = .0532... = 5.32% Storm is right; the method impressionist uses breaks down for low frequency events.
October 13, 201015 yr That is an unlucky dry streak..... Have you been wearing a Ring of Wealth?: Current Goal: 99 Fish
October 13, 201015 yr Author Im close to 2k kills now, and no ring of wealth because it does not affect whip drops.
October 13, 201015 yr So you should have like 20 rune meds now?Cause once it drops a rare, a rune med counts as a rare.
October 13, 201015 yr Author So you should have like 20 rune meds now?Cause once it drops a rare, a rune med counts as a rare. I get a lot of rune med drops, I dont pick all of them up tho due to lack of inventory space.
October 13, 201015 yr So you should have like 20 rune meds now?Cause once it drops a rare, a rune med counts as a rare.... what could you elaborate/rephrase that, because to me it sounds 100% false How to Chin Nechyraels for fast XP and profit
October 13, 201015 yr Author Another quick question: If you get a drop that would go on your a log, such as a whip, and you don't pick it up does it still appear on your log?
October 13, 201015 yr Another quick question: If you get a drop that would go on your a log, such as a whip, and you don't pick it up does it still appear on your log?yeap
October 13, 201015 yr Another quick question: If you get a drop that would go on your a log, such as a whip, and you don't pick it up does it still appear on your log? Yes...That's how I learned mummies dropped me a Champion's Scroll while chinning :/
October 13, 201015 yr I think it does.I know the champion challenges show up if you don't pick them up. It's happened to me a couple of times when i haven't been paying attention. JOIN THERE TO MERCHANT YOUR BUTS OFF!. Seriously.
October 13, 201015 yr Abyssal heads are pretty rare; if you can be bothered to play sw the pet is great to show off while killing more. Supporter of Zaros | Quest Cape owner since 22 may 2010 | No skills below 99 | Total level 2595 | Completionist Cape owner since 17th June 2013 | Suggestions 99 summoning (18th June 2011, previously untrimmed) | 99 farming (14th July 2011) | 99 prayer (8th September 2011) | 99 constitution (10th September 2011) | 99 dungeoneering (15th November 2011) 99 ranged (28th November 2011) | 99 attack, 99 defence, 99 strength (11th December 2011) | 99 slayer (18th December 2011) | 99 magic (22nd December 2011) | 99 construction (16th March 2012) 99 herblore (22nd March 2012) | 99 firemaking (26th March 2012) | 99 cooking (2nd July 2012) | 99 runecrafting (12th March 2012) | 99 crafting (26th August 2012) | 99 agility (19th November 2012) 99 woodcutting (22nd November 2012) | 99 fletching (31st December 2012) | 99 thieving (3rd January 2013) | 99 hunter (11th January 2013) | 99 mining (21st January 2013) | 99 fishing (21st January 2013) 99 smithing (21st January 2013) | 120 dungeoneering (17th June 2013) | 99 divination (24th November 2013) Tormented demon drops: twenty effigies, nine pairs of claws, two dragon armour slices and one elite clue | Dagannoth king drops: two dragon hatchets, two elite clues, one archer ring and one warrior ring Glacor drops: four pairs of ragefire boots, one pair of steadfast boots, six effigies, two hundred lots of Armadyl shards, three elite clues | Nex split: Torva boots | Kalphite King split: off-hand drygore mace 30/30 Shattered Heart statues completed | 16/16 Court Cases completed | 25/25 Choc Chimp Ices delivered | 500/500 Vyrewatch burned | 584/584 tasks completed | 4000/4000 chompies hunted
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