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thingummywut

Barrows Drop Rates

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OK, so we have the information that killing exactly 6 of the brothers yield a barrows item in once about every 12-18 runs.

 

My question is how each brother contributes to this?

 

My assumption is (just because that's how I'd code it) that each brother drops a piece of his armour at a 1/100 rate. Killing 6 brothers, this'd create a 3/50 drop rate, fitting into the known average. My personal goal is to Barrow myself an Akrisae's set, and under my assumption it would seem pointless killing any other brothers but him. Prices of the pieces are just not worth it.

 

I need people to examine my assumptions: Do some runs only killing 1 brother and post your results. Or just prove me wrong.

 

Also, it's rather interesting how the JMod said that killing the 7th brother does not increase the odds at all. They could've just coded an exception for this to prevent abusing the old "7th brother glitch", which now as I think about it, is actually pretty sensible reason for this.

 

I'll start with 30 runs of killing Akrisae and Akrisae alone: 0 drops.

 

EDIT: Stopping this experiment at 2480 Akrisae killed with 12 drops.

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I could be completely wrong about this, but the way the Jagex Mod worded it, it seems like theres two "rolls" for drops.

 

The first one takes consideration into how many barrow brothers you've killed, having 6 killed means a higher chance of getting a barrows item.

 

Then the second "roll" (if you are to recieve a barrows item from roll 1) decides which piece you get, and excludes the 7th brother you did not kill.

 

If thats true, you'll always get a piece of Akrisae's set, but it'll be alot more difficult.


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Killing a specific brother opens up the chance to receive that brother's armor.

 

Killing a total of 6 brothers increases your chances of receiving a piece of barrow's armor.

 

You can pick a barrow brother that has a really crappy profit and not kill him to increase your potential for profit from the other 6 left post-ROTM.

 

That's how I've understood it anyway.


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If the drop rate was dependent purely on what brothers were killed, making it so killing 7 didn't provide a higher item chance then 6 would be hell to code. Also, somehow killing an extra brother wouldn't affect the rate in any way.


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Also, if each brother has a 1% chance of dropping something, your chances of getting an item (or more) isn't 6*(1/100)=3/50, but rather 1 - (1 - 1/100)^6 = 5.86%.


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Also, if each brother has a 1% chance of dropping something, your chances of getting an item (or more) isn't 6*(1/100)=3/50, but rather 1 - (1 - 1/100)^6 = 5.86%.

Wutisrandommath

 

You're assuming that

a.) getting one piece is independent of getting another

b.) each brother you kill adds a chance of you getting that item --> I.e. you kill 6 brothers, you can potentially get 6 items


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Also, if each brother has a 1% chance of dropping something, your chances of getting an item (or more) isn't 6*(1/100)=3/50, but rather 1 - (1 - 1/100)^6 = 5.86%.

 

Ah, of course you're correct. I think I'll go for 160ish chests to get around 0.8 probability to get an Akrisae piece, and if I don't get it I'll just stop trying. 60 trips so far, no items (I don't have that much time to play right now).

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Also, if each brother has a 1% chance of dropping something, your chances of getting an item (or more) isn't 6*(1/100)=3/50, but rather 1 - (1 - 1/100)^6 = 5.86%.

Wutisrandommath

 

You're assuming that

a.) getting one piece is independent of getting another

b.) each brother you kill adds a chance of you getting that item --> I.e. you kill 6 brothers, you can potentially get 6 items

 

Which is basically what the OP is assuming.


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my difinition of noob is i dont like u, either u are better then me or u are worst them me

Buying spins make you a bad person...don't do it. It's like buying nukes for North Korea.

Well if it bothers you that the game is more fun now, then you can go cry in a corner. :shame:

your article was the equivalent of a circumcized porcupine

The only thing wrong with it is the lack of a percentage for when you need to stroke it.

 


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90 trips in, skirt obtained with this method (I did get the top earlier by killing 6-7 brothers). Going to continue doing this for further results.

 

Only thing that my theory doesn't explain is how on earth some people have reported multiple Torag's legs from one chest, for instance. In my theory that would be impossible unless they used the duplicate brother glitch for Torag while only having killed 4 brothers before that. Or, each brother actually has 2 drops and odds for each of them being a barrows item is like 1/200.

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Also, if each brother has a 1% chance of dropping something, your chances of getting an item (or more) isn't 6*(1/100)=3/50, but rather 1 - (1 - 1/100)^6 = 5.86%.

Wutisrandommath

 

You're assuming that

a.) getting one piece is independent of getting another

b.) each brother you kill adds a chance of you getting that item --> I.e. you kill 6 brothers, you can potentially get 6 items

 

 

The assumption holds because there are (ro at least were) many reported and recorded double drops, or even a triple drop. In all likelihood, a single would be the most common, and triple or more drops would be so rare most people don't know if it is even possible.

 

Perhaps, what happens is that when you kill a brother, his loot becomes spawnable, so for example, killing Guthan allows Guthan parts to be in the chest, etc., but multiple pieces from the same set are still possible. So instead of looking like each brother drops his/her piece, its more like X drops for X brothers, from the subset of brothers that died.


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It appears that each brother has 2 drops which explains the double drop of the same brother. Triple from the same brother is thus impossible but nothing stops you from getting up to 6x2=12 barrows items from a single chest. Odds for that would just be a bit slim.

 

I'm currently at 2100 Akrisae kills and 11 drops. First it seemed to follow my assumed 1/100 drop rate roughly but then drops started to slow down and I spent about 1k kills without getting anything. Will continue doing this until I manage to score a hood which I still miss.

 

Interesting fact: If you kill 1 brother and nothing else, you always get 2 drops. They seem to be chosen from nothing, barrows item or any even amount of coins from 2 to 232. If I kill another brother, the amounts change. (Technically I'm still missing 4 coin values to have gotten every even amount between 2 and 232, but I believe they're also possible.)

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I've got every Akrisae item now (hood with killing 6 brothers).

 

All in all I got a total of 12 Akrisae drops while doing 2480 Barrows trips killing only Akrisae and nothing else. At first I was getting items around once in 100 chests but then I started getting dry streaks, the longest being almost 1000 chests. This test is still way too small to draw any conclusions. I hope someone continues it some day.

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As far as I know, I'm the only player with a low, consistent # of drops per x trips. I do barrows entirely differently from others, but that's hardly a factor.

 

 

No one here has mentioned triple items (possible, unlikely seeing as I've only ever had doubles and not many). I do 4, maybe 5 chests an hour, but still have 1 item every 7-10 chests as a worst-case scenario. Dmeds and half-keys come from the same table as barrows armor, count those too. Ring of wealth increases item chances, by how much? I do not care to test because without it I'd just be wasting my chances of getting more.

 

 

So, the factors in play for me are the following:

 

# of brother kills

# of killcount (unlikely to affect, but I have a very specific kc I get, and ever since I used it, I've had consistent drops)

Players also looting chest at barrows

 

Players part can account for at least 1 of 2 theories of mine.

 

1) Like that of glacors or dragons (that drop visages), you can hardly find a real drop rate for items due to the chances of one person going for 1500 kills, and you might need 1501 for a guarenteed drop, but someone came when you killed 1490 and took your spot, thus getting a drop in 21 kills. Regardless of how unlikely that is due to the fact that there's no direct # of kills required to guarentee a drop and most is random, it's still possible in my eyes to have that happen. I've experienced it enough times to agree entirely with it. I have semi-conclusive information from dust devils, small data from dragons, and a lot from barrows to agree with my theory.

 

2) Barrows chest has different mechanics from monster drops, maybe a similar drop roll table but how the items are generated is completely different. I'm not sure because it's hard to tell with monsters. Anyway, imagine the chest runs a timer and once the timer reaches certain values preset by Jagex, the rare roll gets increased. I'll explain further below.

 

Chest timer is reset whenever ANY player loots, drop rates are NEVER player independant (goes with #1 well btw).

Chest timer hits 60 seconds/100 game ticks, % chance of rare roll goes up by 8% (as an example).

Possible that chest timer resets after x amount of time, going back to 0% chance. Example: 3 mins pass no looting, % resets to 0 and timer starts over.

This is an example illustration and I don't believe the game does this. But it coincides well with my drop rates, and possibly the time it takes to do 1 chest total from dharok to looting the chest.

 

The main point from above is to help you understand that I truly believe more players doing the same thing for item drops reduces your personal chances of getting that item.

 

The issue I have with this would be that there is a Max, but no min (because no one could be trying for that loot) # of items coming into the game per hour/day/week/month in that way. Unlikely, but possible I guess.

 

More often than not, I have gotten worse drop rates with 3-5+ players at barrows, than with 0-2. I've gotten plenty of drops with players around, but the majority of my 210+ barrows items has been strictly solo/alone.


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As far as I know, I'm the only player with a low, consistent # of drops per x trips. I do barrows entirely differently from others, but that's hardly a factor.

 

 

No one here has mentioned triple items (possible, unlikely seeing as I've only ever had doubles and not many). I do 4, maybe 5 chests an hour, but still have 1 item every 7-10 chests as a worst-case scenario. Dmeds and half-keys come from the same table as barrows armor, count those too. Ring of wealth increases item chances, by how much? I do not care to test because without it I'd just be wasting my chances of getting more.

 

 

So, the factors in play for me are the following:

 

# of brother kills

# of killcount (unlikely to affect, but I have a very specific kc I get, and ever since I used it, I've had consistent drops)

Players also looting chest at barrows

 

Players part can account for at least 1 of 2 theories of mine.

 

1) Like that of glacors or dragons (that drop visages), you can hardly find a real drop rate for items due to the chances of one person going for 1500 kills, and you might need 1501 for a guarenteed drop, but someone came when you killed 1490 and took your spot, thus getting a drop in 21 kills. Regardless of how unlikely that is due to the fact that there's no direct # of kills required to guarentee a drop and most is random, it's still possible in my eyes to have that happen. I've experienced it enough times to agree entirely with it. I have semi-conclusive information from dust devils, small data from dragons, and a lot from barrows to agree with my theory.

 

2) Barrows chest has different mechanics from monster drops, maybe a similar drop roll table but how the items are generated is completely different. I'm not sure because it's hard to tell with monsters. Anyway, imagine the chest runs a timer and once the timer reaches certain values preset by Jagex, the rare roll gets increased. I'll explain further below.

 

Chest timer is reset whenever ANY player loots, drop rates are NEVER player independant (goes with #1 well btw).

Chest timer hits 60 seconds/100 game ticks, % chance of rare roll goes up by 8% (as an example).

Possible that chest timer resets after x amount of time, going back to 0% chance. Example: 3 mins pass no looting, % resets to 0 and timer starts over.

This is an example illustration and I don't believe the game does this. But it coincides well with my drop rates, and possibly the time it takes to do 1 chest total from dharok to looting the chest.

 

The main point from above is to help you understand that I truly believe more players doing the same thing for item drops reduces your personal chances of getting that item.

 

The issue I have with this would be that there is a Max, but no min (because no one could be trying for that loot) # of items coming into the game per hour/day/week/month in that way. Unlikely, but possible I guess.

 

More often than not, I have gotten worse drop rates with 3-5+ players at barrows, than with 0-2. I've gotten plenty of drops with players around, but the majority of my 210+ barrows items has been strictly solo/alone.

 

What the [bleep] is this shit?

 

Really, how does any of this make sense? Do you have evidence? Numbers? Like, actually facts or some such? Or just bullshit estimations in 500 words more than necessary?


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Why haven't you? :P

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Why hasn't anybody used the Beta reset system to log barrows chest loots at various kill counts yet?

There are so many ways to abuse the Beta reset to gather butt-tons of data. I just friggin' love it! What else could we use it for? Anyone up for a BRAINSTORM?

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how do you use the beta reset to test barrows?


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Quest Cape Achieved on November 14, 2007

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Items Acquired

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3/28 Barrows Items

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Kill the brothers and get kc in a regular world then import save. Then you loot the chest and import and repeat.

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Ah so import +1 kill +2 kills etc?


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Quest Cape Achieved on November 14, 2007

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Items Acquired

Crystal Pick and Hatchet

Berzerker Ring x 3

3/28 Barrows Items

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