statistical analyses of RuneScape features

[ixfd64]

I wrote up some statistical analyses of RS features.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

http://runescape.wikia.com/wiki/User:Ixfd64/statistics

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I hope that this will clear up some misconceptions! This can also be used to tell if Jagex changed drop rates without telling us, etc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Is there anything I should add?

[fshiu]

Just a question:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

how do you know whip drops are normally distributed?

[ixfd64]

The thing is, I don't; I'm only making an assumption. The most reasonable assumption is that drops are independent of one another.

[Wachtwoord]

Sorry, but this was too dificult for me. I got the iron smelting part a bit (because I've had that at scholl numerous times), and the "59 above 60", but the rest was plain magic too me.

 

 

 

Maybe it's because I'm dutch and pretty suck at english, but I think may be a bit too difficult for the most people.

[mindstormer398]

Wow :shock: , you obviously did a lot of thinking about this. It's very interesting, but a little hard to understand if you haven't taken a high level statistics course, lol, since most people don't know what the Poisson Distribution is. But very worthwhile read.

[Me_Hate_Libs]

I can understand you put a lot of thought into this, and while all of your theories and calculatable formulas are sound, the only conclusion one gets from this whole thing is that it's random. Maybe not random persay, but more like that everything is independant, has no affiliation with each other, and can't be projected.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Which, sorry to say, makes it all the work you did seem a bit pointless.

[Severation]

Wow :shock:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

lol, I was like that when I first read it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It looks like you put a lot of effort into this, and I can vaguely understand it

[das1330]

your methods are good, but dust devils drop chains much less often then 1 in 60 or 150

[aoe325]

I can understand you put a lot of thought into this, and while all of your theories and calculatable formulas are sound, the only conclusion one gets from this whole thing is that it's random. Maybe not random persay, but more like that everything is independant, has no affiliation with each other, and can't be projected.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Which, sorry to say, makes it all the work you did seem a bit pointless.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I agree, all of this is really interesting but only proves the obvious.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And usually when you need to explain the obvious to someone he wont understand these maths #-o

[heart_of_ink]

Interesting, but that's more math than I care to know about runescape.

[nathrox]

Love it...I so often try to explain that a one in a thousand chance does not mean you are going to get one out of a thousand. I agree that each drop is a discrete and individual occurance and love your analysis. a percentage chance is far more valuable information than a drop rate. Kudos for being bothered.

[mchainmail]

wow, that actually made sense. Thanks for doing that.

[anonimu]

This thread proves that the average TIF user is a lot less intelligent than me...

[Elessar3019]

That's awesome! I'm a geek, so all those formulas are really cool. Thanks for putting that together!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now I'm gonna get off the computer and do my chemistry homework (logarithms - woot!).

[Sbrideau]

Very nice calculations and exact too! (lol i do those on my biotechnology course) :P

[Ddrmaster7]

I'm sure if I took an advanced statistics course (I think that's next year for me?), then I'd understand this a bit more. However, glancing it over, it seems as if your calculations are sound, and I didn't spot any immediate errors. I'm not sure if I'd even notice them, but whatever. :) Good job, nonetheless.

[Dalcyte]

interesting and well thoughtout read. But i do have ONE comment on iron. The chances of iron being smelted are not 1/2, they are someone different i believe, but i think its not necessarly probability there, i think the game actually is programed that you get somewhere between like 10-16 or something. With a 1/2 chance, and all the f2p iron smelters, someone would have gotten a 0/28 load sometime, because since all iron according to you are independent of eachother. But other than that, great read. :thumbsup:

[ashozzy2]

great wiki, il be adding to that later, i think we have to presume that unescape uses a randomised number system for drops, for example

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ran(.00)

 

 

 

if ran <0.9 then dragon chain dropped = true

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

this is an innacurate example but that is the jist of the dropping (or what i believe is)

[Ltje]

Nice read. To be honest, I didn't find it thÃÆÃâÃâát hard to understand.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Except for that first paragraph with the correlation between fishing XP and cooking XP. I'm quite curious about that, so does anyone care to explain that one.

[jedidude77]

gotta love statistics, they fuel the world.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

now i know how often I should get my hopes up...lol :

[aoe325]

interesting and well thoughtout read. But i do have ONE comment on iron. The chances of iron being smelted are not 1/2, they are someone different i believe, but i think its not necessarly probability there, i think the game actually is programed that you get somewhere between like 10-16 or something. With a 1/2 chance, and all the f2p iron smelters, someone would have gotten a 0/28 load sometime, because since all iron according to you are independent of eachother. But other than that, great read. :thumbsup:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Its the first time I see you post something like that . . . of course each iron ore is independent of eachother, they didnt had the time to do anything fancy + theres no point. If there were patterns we would have seen them since then. As for the 0/28 , theres a fair 1/268 435 456(228, or 2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2) chance of it happening. :

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And then again this is the same thing than a drop rate, the % of chance of it happening must be even narrower.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Im not even sure that many loads of iron were smelted in the whole Runescape history, so its normal its not very common.

[ixfd64]

I've just added a new section. It should prove why Jagex should be more careful with their macro detection system!

[Hedged]

Whoa, pretty interesting. Intriguing.

[SwreeTak]

I looked at that article for about 10 seconds. Than I understood something. It was the headline. :XD: