Pure Essence: What happened?

[Giordano]

And alas the time has come....we always predicted how the economy would work with autoers, now we have to face it head on. Lets see how we do it...

 

 

 

The loss of autoers is the primary reason for this naturally. The basic laws of Supply+Demand are in play here and without the autoers getting the supplies, the price goes up.

 

 

 

Although this leaves an oppotunity for prices to decrease; as various people said before me, less-experienced, new players will mine ess and gather goods from the 'Trade skills'. We never had to do this on a massive scale since the days of RSC, so this should be intresting to watch...

 

 

 

And the merchant idea isn't so bad neither, but they're risking a lot since if a lot of people mine ess too suddenly the prices will fall to quickly and poof, there goes their profits.

[krisc6]

This happened to red chinchompas,When hunting was released red chinchompas were considered a novelty ranbge weapon so tehy wer going 200-300gp each.Then someone wote up what was a fantastic guide on the best range exp in game using red chinchompas in the ape attoll skeleton dungeon.When peopletested this out and got 250k+ range exp an hour they shot upto as much as 1.2k gp each at their peak(although i sold 30k for 1.1k ea).

 

 

 

Peopel went crazy and wanted to get hunting up knowing of teh amazing profits you could make causing them to crash and the bubble to pop.They dropped to 750-850 gp ea whgere they stabilized.

 

 

 

Another thing is that someone here had pics of hunting autoers being seen training at tropical wagtails and even a few frantically hunting red chinchompas at the most western spot.This made chinchompas crash again in fear to around 350-400ea.Then a few days later they rose up again back to 750-850 after their was a rumour that the amount of randoms in the feldip hunting area had been increased breaking the algorithim the marcoers use(i cant remember the word someone used to explain it).

 

 

 

As i see it its indicticitive of p ess but on a way smaller scale.Nats and high alching is teh fuel that runs the engine of the economy and for many players their only real money maker.

[Kekek]

Doesn't anyone realise what jagex (imo) is trying to convince us to do? Do things for yourself! I've just cut 557 yews, picked my flax, made it into bowstrings, and I am currently fletching it. This is much more satisfying than buying materials, as I'm making 100% profit! More people need to do this.

 

If you are going to 99 fletching, its tens of thousands of bows, so it will get little bit boring to pick up 30k+flax and then make them to bow strings ?

 

Or how about cutting the yews ?

 

That would be a good way to those who are not going to high levels.

[jessy87]

More people need to do this.

 

 

 

Why?

 

 

 

Is this a MULTIPLAYER game or just a single player game on shared servers?

 

 

 

And if Jagex wanted to force everyone to do everything themselves, why not admit that up front?

 

 

 

 

 

whats your obsession with wanting jagex to admit their plans for people. and how they think player should play their game?

[CYBERFROST]

When I came back to RS this year P Ess was about 80GP, this was great, loads of profit from Nats/Laws :P

 

But now, god, I'm having to pay near 160GP each! Sure I'm still making profit from Laws but no as much as I would like.

 

I hope Laws don't drop below 300GP each. :(

 

 

 

Bring back normal ess @ 100 GP ea.

[RU_Insane]

Buying pure ess at insane prices just because of mere speculation over a skill is a huge gamble.

 

 

 

If no runes are utilized with the release of the summoning skill, people can just use their ess to still make a profit. And how much are nats? 250-300 ea.? You can still make a decent profit from buying all that essence, because pure ess still isn't worth more than nats are, so you aren't losing any money, but that's IF you have rune crafting level of 44, and even more profit if you can double craft, triple craft, etc.

 

 

 

I think the Dev. Diaries play a good role with the pure ess prices, as well. Since Jagex stated they are going to create another Dev. Diary talking about the release instead of actually releasing it, Jagex might drop hints about some sort of rune being used for summoning.

 

 

 

And of course, this will effect F2P if Summoning is made F2P, because, who knows, Jagex might make it so life runes can be crafted from regular essence as well, because it is such a hugely anticipated update, and who says the life runes will be a high-level rune? Jagex decides that.

[Sly_Wizard]

Expecting others to be completely self-sufficient is, plain and simply put, unfeasible. Using runecrafting as an example, for level 99 runecrafting via natures I'd have to mine 1,405,918 pure essence. I'm pretty sure there's one person out there who'd find the fun in that (Especially considering the paltry amount of mining experience you get for rune essence) but the vast majority of Runescape wouldn't.

 

 

 

Anywho... It's like this. The removal of auto'ers negatively affected the supply of pure essence, yes, but Jagex removing the PK'ing aspect from the area around the abyss has led to a massive increase in people using that area to runecraft and a subsequent massive increase in the demand for rune essence (In order to runecraft natures) and a subsequent jump in the price of pure essence that would not have been seen otherwise. In Runescape, the demand for an item is much more influential than the supply of that same item. Knowing this, the only way you'll see a sharp drop off in the price of rune essence would be if fewer people were using the abyss to runecraft natures. Rather simple, really.

[RU_Insane]

Expecting others to be completely self-sufficient is, plain and simply put, unfeasible. Using runecrafting as an example, for level 99 runecrafting via natures I'd have to mine 1,405,918 pure essence. I'm pretty sure there's one person out there who'd find the fun in that (Especially considering the paltry amount of mining experience you get for rune essence) but the vast majority of Runescape wouldn't.

 

 

 

 

 

Not to mention being completely self-sufficient kills off the market and trade embargo, anyway.

[RU_Insane]

When I came back to RS this year P Ess was about 80GP, this was great, loads of profit from Nats/Laws :P

 

But now, god, I'm having to pay near 160GP each! Sure I'm still making profit from Laws but no as much as I would like.

 

I hope Laws don't drop below 300GP each. :(

 

 

 

Bring back normal ess @ 100 GP ea.

 

 

 

The only way this will be possible is if Summoning won't use life runes to summon, which means no life runes=less demand for pure essence=TONS of money lost from those people gambling something based on idle speculation, even with profits from crafting them into Natures, and other high-level runes.

 

 

 

...

 

 

 

Unless the buyers can double craft with natures.

[Duke_Freedom]

Market cornering at its best - Jagex idiotic 5% price ranges even help this somewhat. But pure essence was undervaluated before anyway, so I'm really not too surprised and believe a significant part of the price increase was more than reasonable.

 

 

 

It seems to become a bit of an excess now though, especially considering the time span in which the price rose so fast and the fact that it's partially speculation-driven. Nevertheless, even if it drops back I don't really expect pure essence to drop anywhere below 100-120gp anymore - that has proven to be a solid bottom before, when botting wasn't too rampant.

 

 

 

Heck, considering the extreme profitability of RuneCrafting before I would say 150gp each for pure essence isn't even that irrealistic. But it's too early to conclude whether it could possibly become a new market optimum. Besides, the pure essence price is related to nature and law rune prices anyway, which haven't been doing all that well lately as far as I know.

 

 

 

I still wonder if we'll see normal essence go up in price some time soon too. I would really expect it to. All significant botting materials have seen price increases. Normal essence at 25gp makes it an inefficient material to harvest for players, IMO.

[bornl337]

it was obvious the price of nats go down and p ess go up to even out with some of the other skills

 

 

 

I have 94 runecrafting

 

profits were amazing since i could double nats since june

 

it was around 1M an hour on average

 

but compare it to the rest of the skills

 

look at hunting, at 99 hunting i was catching about up to 500 red chinchompas an hour which equates to 350k

 

 

 

woodcutting magics maybe 150k profit with magics

 

 

 

fishing monks about 100k an hour

 

profits with rc'ing was already ridiculously higher than the rest

 

91+ rc'ing is still the best money making skill in the game

[RU_Insane]

 

I still wonder if we'll see normal essence go up in price some time soon too. I would really expect it to. All significant botting materials have seen price increases. Normal essence at 25gp makes it an inefficient material to harvest for players, IMO.

 

 

 

What I want to see is Summoning being released as F2P, and reg.ess able to be crafted into runes for Summoning (seems likely). Prices for reg. ess would skyrocket. :D Plus, with no ess being botted, as you have previously mentioned, it would be any miner's dream come true. :lol:

[RU_Insane]

it was obvious the price of nats go down and p ess go up to even out with some of the other skills

 

 

 

I have 94 runecrafting

 

profits were amazing since i could double nats since june

 

it was around 1M an hour on average

 

but compare it to the rest of the skills

 

look at hunting, at 99 hunting i was catching about up to 500 red chinchompas an hour which equates to 350k

 

 

 

woodcutting magics maybe 150k profit with magics

 

 

 

fishing monks about 100k an hour

 

profits with rc'ing was already ridiculously higher than the rest

 

91+ rc'ing is still the best money making skill in the game

 

 

 

I find it ironic, however, how some magers would actually buy runes crafted by your truly for their 94 mage and whatnot, and try to cast Ice Barrage and only hit a max 30, while melee and range can hit above 50, and do it at much earlier levels. :-k

[Ravenkana]

Hmm, I think they will fall pretty soon, since a lot of people have been investing in Essence right now in hopes of it going up, and will probably sell sometime after Summoning, making the supply on the Grand Exchange very high.

 

 

 

A little off topic: Why is there still Pure Essence when there are no autoers anymore? Can't they make it like it was before? Just normal Essence? :?

If the two were merged, then the void may be partially filled as well as giving F2P a new money maker...

[Ravenkana]

it was obvious the price of nats go down and p ess go up to even out with some of the other skills

 

 

 

I have 94 runecrafting

 

profits were amazing since i could double nats since june

 

it was around 1M an hour on average

 

but compare it to the rest of the skills

 

look at hunting, at 99 hunting i was catching about up to 500 red chinchompas an hour which equates to 350k

 

 

 

woodcutting magics maybe 150k profit with magics

 

 

 

fishing monks about 100k an hour

 

profits with rc'ing was already ridiculously higher than the rest

 

91+ rc'ing is still the best money making skill in the game

 

 

 

I find it ironic, however, how some magers would actually buy runes crafted by your truly for their 94 mage and whatnot, and try to cast Ice Barrage and only hit a max 30, while melee and range can hit above 50, and do it at much earlier levels. :-k

On other MMORPGs, magic tends to hit harder than anything else... The mages just have low health and defense.

[Bo4345]

Pure ess has gone up like 40 gp this week wow :shock:

 

 

 

It's like the google stock a lil while ago

[magekillr]

it won't reach 200 each...lol @ the poor predictions

 

 

 

it will rise to possibly 170 each MAX and then plummet...depending on if life runes will be released or not and their price.

 

 

 

i'm selling the 4 million essence i purchased for 135 each for 157 each right now.

 

 

 

however, normal essence would be a very good investment atm...i can see that rising to 30 each or so...it's currently 23? if not 23 it's 27..can't remember the price. if it's 27 i can see it going to 35-40

[Robert_de_Sable]

Skilling is boring. Let the nubs mine it.

 

+1

 

 

 

I expected it to touch 200...

 

-10

 

Oh yeah, they're so freaking dumb, making so much money with so little work, I mean, how freaking dumb can you get?? [/sarcasm]

[creinstein]

it looks like its going to fall from today onwards as nobody is buying pure ess, even at the lowest price.

[Doomster]

it looks like its going to fall from today onwards as nobody is buying pure ess, even at the lowest price.

 

 

 

And walks straight into the number one flaw of the GE trade & value equalization system - if nobody buys, even at the lowest, then it's not going to move.

 

 

 

Maybe the system needs a larger margin for items that appear to be stalled with no/low trade.

[qeltar]

Here's what happened.

 

 

 

Let's consider the average Joe who is mining pure essence. He has 10k of it in the bank. The price had been in the 110-120 range, then rising slowly, but now it has shot up to 134 "fair" (cough) price, but is actually limit up at 141. You can sell at 141 instantly because there are too many buyers.

 

 

 

Now.. with the current system, why would Average Joe Pure Ess Miner sell for 141? He's better off to wait and see what happens the next day. Most sellers do the same.. and so nearly nobody can buy pure ess. The buyers are joined by merchants who *know in advance* that the price is going to go up tomorrow.

 

 

 

So the next day comes, now the average price is 141 and ess is limit-up at 149. Sellers? Some may sell to take profits (I did), but others will wait. Same situation persists.

 

 

 

The next day, now average price is 149. Again, limit up at 157. Ride the wave, ride the wave.

 

 

 

But all waves end. Fourth day, now average price is 157 and max is 165. A few people sell at 165, but there's not much buying interest. Sellers probe the market and see there aren't a lot of buyers at 165, so they realize the streak won't be maintained and they start to sell. They undercut each other, and soon it is selling below 157.

 

 

 

Then more people who have been "riding the wave" notice that it has broken. They decide they better sell before the price drops further. Then some people who bought in the 157 range realize that they are too late; they panic and dump. Price goes down more.. and more people sell. And suddenly, after four days of being limit up on price, pure ess is now *limit down*.

 

 

 

And that's where we are now.. with pure ess limit *down* at 149, lots of sellers and no buyers.

 

 

 

Nearly ALL of this is caused by the price limits themselves. They drive down transaction volume, and cause people to panic when they can't either buy or sell.

 

 

 

Without them, as soon as the price started to rise, there would be increasing sales pressure from those holding essence, along with more supply from miners. Could the price fluctuate? I'm sure it would. But nobody would know where the price was going the way they do now, and nobody would be locked out of the market causing panic the way it occurs today.

[777thzapster]

All im going to say is that I will be suprised if pure essence stays above 140 after tomorrow, I have 1k selling in there right now and none is sellng.

 

 

 

P.S. I train at ankous eveyday and get about 1k noted essence down there and I sell at the same time everday. Last couple day it was selling lke hotcakes at lowest price, and right now I see nothng sold on my screen, that means LOTS OF SELLERS not many buyers.....watch out for the market in pure essence to crash.

[monte]

Here's what happened.

 

 

 

Let's consider the average Joe who is mining pure essence. He has 10k of it in the bank. The price had been in the 110-120 range, then rising slowly, but now it has shot up to 134 "fair" (cough) price, but is actually limit up at 141. You can sell at 141 instantly because there are too many buyers.

 

 

 

Now.. with the current system, why would Average Joe Pure Ess Miner sell for 141? He's better off to wait and see what happens the next day. Most sellers do the same.. and so nearly nobody can buy pure ess. The buyers are joined by merchants who *know in advance* that the price is going to go up tomorrow.

 

 

 

So the next day comes, now the average price is 141 and ess is limit-up at 149. Sellers? Some may sell to take profits (I did), but others will wait. Same situation persists.

 

 

 

The next day, now average price is 149. Again, limit up at 157. Ride the wave, ride the wave.

 

 

 

But all waves end. Fourth day, now average price is 157 and max is 165. A few people sell at 165, but there's not much buying interest. Sellers probe the market and see there aren't a lot of buyers at 165, so they realize the streak won't be maintained and they start to sell. They undercut each other, and soon it is selling below 157.

 

 

 

Then more people who have been "riding the wave" notice that it has broken. They decide they better sell before the price drops further. Then some people who bought in the 157 range realize that they are too late; they panic and dump. Price goes down more.. and more people sell. And suddenly, after four days of being limit up on price, pure ess is now *limit down*.

 

 

 

And that's where we are now.. with pure ess limit *down* at 149, lots of sellers and no buyers.

 

 

 

Nearly ALL of this is caused by the price limits themselves. They drive down transaction volume, and cause people to panic when they can't either buy or sell.

 

 

 

Without them, as soon as the price started to rise, there would be increasing sales pressure from those holding essence, along with more supply from miners. Could the price fluctuate? I'm sure it would. But nobody would know where the price was going the way they do now, and nobody would be locked out of the market causing panic the way it occurs today.

 

 

 

The price limits do not cause this situation.

 

 

 

The story you tell could just as easily be retold without price limits with the only difference being that the price rises and drops would be much more dramatic and frequent. The prices rises would be steeper followed by more intense price under cutting. You'd be creating a situation where on day p ess going for 170, 130 the next and back to 160 the day after that.

 

 

 

The 'panic' buying and selling is a contributing factor but not as much of one as I think you'd have us believe. The 5% price limits allow for trends to develop and some people are taking advantage of that. As usual, it's knowing when to buy and when to sell. You might say 'panic' but I think it's people playing the market. A new form of merchanting is emerging.

 

 

 

Ess is a pretty bad example anyway. It's a market that has yet to find a price everyone can agree on. I don't think there is a good sense yet of how much of it is being produced versus where the rc market demand is in light of the recent changes. Once a price point is established, I think we'd be unlikely to see much fluctuation +/- with or without price limits in place

[Berrakus]

There are many reasons for the rise in Pure Ess price.

 

 

 

1) People realized that this was an autoer-supplied resource and they want to stockpile Pure Ess for their own use once the autoers were supposedly "dead'. The same thing happened to the price of Dragon Bones and other autoer-supplied resource.

 

 

 

2) When many people's sources of income were ruined with the recent changes, a lot of people decided to resort back to RC, creating a [bleep]e in demand for Pure Ess.

 

 

 

3) People who gave up on RC because of the PKers suddenly went back to the skill when the PKers were removed causing another increase in demand of Pure Ess.

 

 

 

4) Market speculators see the price of Pure Ess rising and stock up on it, hoping to sell at a later time and make a huge profit.

 

 

 

There may be other factors but I'm sure those are the main ones.

[Karvinen]

More people need to do this.

 

 

 

Why?

 

 

 

Is this a MULTIPLAYER game or just a single player game on shared servers?

 

 

 

And if Jagex wanted to force everyone to do everything themselves, why not admit that up front?

 

Why? Because you make 100% profit. Oh, btw I don't think that fletching and wcing is everything in rs. There are many more things you can do that are multiplayer.

 

 

 

You would probably get more money by just selling the raw items. If you make loss by buying the raw items, you also make loss even if you get the raw items yourself (compared to selling them).