The Random Element

[danelennon]

(Feel free to move/lock/complain about this thread if you so desire, I'm sure that plenty of these have been made over the years)

 

 

 

I've been wondering recently whether there's actually a system in place that actually limits how random certain random features of Runescape are, and whether the last random event that you have affects the possibility of the next one. I'm sure it's not just me that hasn't had a genie for a week or two, and then suddenly gets three or four of them on one day. I know that statistically it should end up happening, but it happens over and over again with different randoms. I was wondering whether anybody else feels as though if you have a random then you're likely to have it again on the same day.

 

 

 

It seems to happen a lot with slayer tasks as well - Today, this happened:

 

 

 

Has kalphite task.

 

Gets teleport matrix fault random on Ardougne tele.

 

Gets kalphite task from Shilo.

 

Gets teleport matrix fault random on Ardougne tele.

 

Gets black demons task from Shilo.

 

Cancels.

 

Gets kalphite task from Shilo.

 

Gets teleport matrix fault random on Ardougne tele.

 

Gets kalphite task from Shilo.

 

 

 

 

 

I know that random events are often annoying to have, but to be fair they do usually break the tedium of certain things a little bit. When you keep getting them like that, it begins to add to it.

 

 

 

Just wondering if anybody else experiences things like this a lot, and whether anybody thinks that certain randoms are more likely to happen if they've already happened to you once...

[Yomyth105]

randoms r ... well random. there is no way of knowing when ur going to get one. it was coincident that u happened to get them after multiple slayer tasks

[danelennon]

I know that that's the theory, but I mean that's just today. I suppose that if you have the same random several times in a row then it's more likely to stick out in your memory than just an individual one every now and then that you're likely to forget, but it still seems as though a lot of randoms appear in clumps, while other's (like the MoM and the sandwhich lady) really do appear randomly.

[Roberthree]

Keep in mind computers are incapable of creating random results.

 

 

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RNG

 

 

 

Pseudo-random number generators (PRNGs) are algorithms that can automatically create long runs (for example, millions of numbers long) with good random properties but eventually the sequence repeats exactly (or the memory usage grows without bound). One of the most common PRNG is the linear congruential generator, which uses the recurrence

 

 

 

X_{n+1} = (a X_n + B)\, \textrm{mod}\, m

 

 

 

to generate numbers. The maximum number of numbers the formula can produce is the modulus, m.

 

 

 

A simple pen-and-paper method for generating random numbers is the so-called middle square method suggested by John Von Neumann. While simple to implement, its output is of poor quality.

 

 

 

Most computer programming languages include functions or library routines that purport to be random number generators. They are often designed to provide a random byte or word, or a floating point number uniformly distributed between 0 and 1.

 

 

 

Such library functions often have poor statistical properties and some will repeat patterns after only tens of thousands of trials. They are often initialized using a computer's real time clock as the seed. These functions may provide enough randomness for certain tasks (for example video games) but are unsuitable where high-quality randomness is required, such as in cryptographic applications, statistics or numerical analysis. Much higher quality random number sources are available on most operating systems; for example /dev/random on various BSD flavors, Linux, Mac OS X, IRIX, and Solaris, or CryptGenRandom for Microsoft Windows.

[Atom Smash40]

wow i think i actually get that math :geek:

 

 

 

i think its saying, even if something seems random, the only thing random about it is when the computer decides it to pop up, not how...if that makes sense....everything is linked to something, because it wont work if it is conjured up out of the blue, like (example) u get matrix random from going to p ess mines and get free ess, but if u get matrix random from tele to cammy, u wont get p ess but instead get cammy tele runes

 

 

 

maybe ur ardy matrix random is linked to kalphite task always...so as long as u go get a task from shilo right after a ardy matrix random, u will always get kalphite, whereas if u got that random, and then went to cwars, and then got the task, mayb u wont get a kalphite.

[Wizz]

See thats the good thing about Random, your not sure if it really is :S

[Roberthree]

See thats the good thing about Random, your not sure if it really is :S

 

 

 

No, I'm pretty sure RS's RNG repeats eventually. Most of them do.

 

 

 

 

 

 

i think its saying, even if something seems random, the only thing random about it is when the computer decides it to pop up, not how...if that makes sense....everything is linked to something, because it wont work if it is conjured up out of the blue, like (example) u get matrix random from going to p ess mines and get free ess, but if u get matrix random from tele to cammy, u wont get p ess but instead get cammy tele runes

 

 

 

maybe ur ardy matrix random is linked to kalphite task always...so as long as u go get a task from shilo right after a ardy matrix random, u will always get kalphite, whereas if u got that random, and then went to cwars, and then got the task, mayb u wont get a kalphite.

 

 

 

Thats not what it says at all. I'm also having a hard time taking you seriously because your grammar is atrocious.

[Death_Dude74]

Keep in mind computers are incapable of creating random results.

 

 

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RNG

 

 

 

Pseudo-random number generators (PRNGs) are algorithms that can automatically create long runs (for example, millions of numbers long) with good random properties but eventually the sequence repeats exactly (or the memory usage grows without bound). One of the most common PRNG is the linear congruential generator, which uses the recurrence

 

 

 

X_{n+1} = (a X_n + B)\, \textrm{mod}\, m

 

 

 

to generate numbers. The maximum number of numbers the formula can produce is the modulus, m.

 

 

 

A simple pen-and-paper method for generating random numbers is the so-called middle square method suggested by John Von Neumann. While simple to implement, its output is of poor quality.

 

 

 

Most computer programming languages include functions or library routines that purport to be random number generators. They are often designed to provide a random byte or word, or a floating point number uniformly distributed between 0 and 1.

 

 

 

Such library functions often have poor statistical properties and some will repeat patterns after only tens of thousands of trials. They are often initialized using a computer's real time clock as the seed. These functions may provide enough randomness for certain tasks (for example video games) but are unsuitable where high-quality randomness is required, such as in cryptographic applications, statistics or numerical analysis. Much higher quality random number sources are available on most operating systems; for example /dev/random on various BSD flavors, Linux, Mac OS X, IRIX, and Solaris, or CryptGenRandom for Microsoft Windows.

 

 

 

 

 

Though, as the article said, random numbers can be sufficiently generated for a minigame.

[nXvggl]

This is an example of how humans have the weird ability to make patterns out of pseudo-random garbage.

[danelennon]

Keep in mind computers are incapable of creating random results.

 

 

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RNG

 

 

 

 

I already knew that :)

 

 

 

 

 

Though, as the article said, random numbers can be sufficiently generated for a minigame.

 

 

 

I didn't know that, but I just assumed it ;)

 

 

 

 

 

This is an example of how humans have the weird ability to make patterns out of pseudo-random garbage.

 

 

 

I also *kind of very slightly* touched on that when I said it was possible that it was just me remembering the repetitive chains of them and forgetting the individual ones. I was just wondering whether it was possible that I wasn't ^_^ Surely certain randoms must be more likely than others anyway, and so is it such a silly idea that they could be more likely to occur after already happening once in a recent timespan?

 

 

 

Somebody is going to quote me and reply 'yes', aren't they?

[BloodArgon]

Please, not another post.

 

Yes, computers arnt truly random.

 

But, it doesnt matter. Even if a computer knows what its going to pick next, we dont, therefore, it doesnt matter.

 

There is no need to have another discussion of this when one already exists, most likely dead, therefore all the more we dont need to bring it up.

 

 

 

Random = Random.

 

Simply put.

[Nenga]

Computers are incapable of doing anything random. The human brain works quite the same way, it doesn't do things randomly. Nothing is really random in life. It's the illusion of random-ality we are seeing. Everything has a reason it happens, a set result, and causes an event that leads to the next event. To maintain that illusion computers use complicated math equations to calculate that. Though I'm sure doing certain things increases the probability of certain results.

[transcript80]

 

Has kalphite task.

 

Gets teleport matrix fault random on Ardougne tele.

 

Gets kalphite task from Shilo.

 

Gets teleport matrix fault random on Ardougne tele.

 

Gets black demons task from Shilo.

 

Cancels.

 

Gets kalphite task from Shilo.

 

Gets teleport matrix fault random on Ardougne tele.

 

Gets kalphite task from Shilo.

 

 

 

 

That is why you have to use Karamja gloves....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

o/t: Well, some randoms are "inducible"-like, for example after fighting a lot without talking, and you bury a bone -> big random chance. But still...."random"

[jimmyjames227]

Keep in mind computers are incapable of creating random results.

 

 

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RNG

 

 

 

Pseudo-random number generators (PRNGs) are algorithms that can automatically create long runs (for example, millions of numbers long) with good random properties but eventually the sequence repeats exactly (or the memory usage grows without bound). One of the most common PRNG is the linear congruential generator, which uses the recurrence

 

 

 

X_{n+1} = (a X_n + B)\, \textrm{mod}\, m

 

 

 

to generate numbers. The maximum number of numbers the formula can produce is the modulus, m.

 

 

 

A simple pen-and-paper method for generating random numbers is the so-called middle square method suggested by John Von Neumann. While simple to implement, its output is of poor quality.

 

 

 

Most computer programming languages include functions or library routines that purport to be random number generators. They are often designed to provide a random byte or word, or a floating point number uniformly distributed between 0 and 1.

 

 

 

Such library functions often have poor statistical properties and some will repeat patterns after only tens of thousands of trials. They are often initialized using a computer's real time clock as the seed. These functions may provide enough randomness for certain tasks (for example video games) but are unsuitable where high-quality randomness is required, such as in cryptographic applications, statistics or numerical analysis. Much higher quality random number sources are available on most operating systems; for example /dev/random on various BSD flavors, Linux, Mac OS X, IRIX, and Solaris, or CryptGenRandom for Microsoft Windows.

 

 

 

 

 

I already knew that but an easier way to put it is that looking at the computer clock (most of the time) it uses that to generate . When you are going to get a random and what random it is.

 

On most computer games to make the game harder it uses the computer clock to figure out when the bad guys are to pop out. Not on runescape though.

[Goldenjkered]

In my opinion nothing is random. Everything will have a certain chance to happen, or take a desicion to come about. Take a drop on runescape for example. Someone at jagex towers has to type in a ratio for a certain drop, lets use dragon chain as an example. Someone must of typed in a ratio something like 1/10000 chance of getting a dragon chaun at dust devils. If they didn't put in a form of a ratio then it may take anything from 1 to billions of dust devils to get a dragon chain. So therefore in most cases of the word random being used it becomes obsolete as nothing is random.

[TheHunted616]

So.. the equation is like a coumpound N function with randomness? lol

 

 

 

f(n) = PRNG formula(N+1)

 

 

 

Kind of like that, unless I'm completely wrong.

[namename]

This guy is talking bs, you can't get assigned two kalphite tasks in a row.

 

 

 

He's [cabbage]ting for attention --> Ban

[rangeor]

This guy is talking bs, you can't get assigned two kalphite tasks in a row.

 

 

 

He's [cabbage] for attention --> Ban

 

 

 

Rofl. Either you quit some time ago or you haven't slayed in a long time. You can get 2 tasks in a row now.

[danelennon]

This guy is talking bs, you can't get assigned two kalphite tasks in a row.

 

 

 

He's [cabbage] for attention --> Ban

 

 

 

Rofl. Either you quit some time ago or you haven't slayed in a long time. You can get 2 tasks in a row now.

 

 

 

;)

 

 

 

But thanks for being so nice about me :)

[LiChef]

I haven't had the genie random for months. The last time I had it was when I was constantly catching Grey Chins for 63 Hunter. In the space of 2 hours I had had about 4 or 5. Now there's none.

 

 

 

Same with the teleport fault. I haven't had it for ages. Longer than I can remember, but just this week it appeared when I dug out my old Slayer Stuff and got going with that after months of neglecting it. (Was a Camelot Tele)

 

 

 

Giles, Niles and Miles I haven't had for years. And still haven't had them. I consider them rare for me.

 

 

 

Sandwich Lady virtually extinct as well!

 

Li Chef

[Death]

I know what you mean :lol: I got 4 genies in an hour and a half once :? And that stalker Molly Kidnaps me almost Daily :D

[Omar]

Go train at any monster that drops bones, and every, say, 12 minutes, bury bones (cutting gems works also). You'll get a 'random' almost every time, and almost only because you might not time it right..

[Jard_Y_Dooku]

Keep in mind computers are incapable of creating random results.

 

 

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RNG

 

 

 

Pseudo-random number generators (PRNGs) are algorithms that can automatically create long runs (for example, millions of numbers long) with good random properties but eventually the sequence repeats exactly (or the memory usage grows without bound). One of the most common PRNG is the linear congruential generator, which uses the recurrence

 

 

 

X_{n+1} = (a X_n + B)\, \textrm{mod}\, m

 

 

 

to generate numbers. The maximum number of numbers the formula can produce is the modulus, m.

 

 

 

A simple pen-and-paper method for generating random numbers is the so-called middle square method suggested by John Von Neumann. While simple to implement, its output is of poor quality.

 

 

 

Most computer programming languages include functions or library routines that purport to be random number generators. They are often designed to provide a random byte or word, or a floating point number uniformly distributed between 0 and 1.

 

 

 

Such library functions often have poor statistical properties and some will repeat patterns after only tens of thousands of trials. They are often initialized using a computer's real time clock as the seed. These functions may provide enough randomness for certain tasks (for example video games) but are unsuitable where high-quality randomness is required, such as in cryptographic applications, statistics or numerical analysis. Much higher quality random number sources are available on most operating systems; for example /dev/random on various BSD flavors, Linux, Mac OS X, IRIX, and Solaris, or CryptGenRandom for Microsoft Windows.

 

 

 

True, but in addition to that is also depends on what you're doing in the game; e.g. standing around is far more likely to trigger a random event than behaving... randomly, I suppose, at least from the machine's perspective.

[Resonae]

We must remember that randoms were made to help stop bots, so they aren't random at all - they come grab you when you act... botty

[danelennon]

We must remember that randoms were made to help stop bots, so they aren't random at all - they come grab you when you act... botty

 

 

 

But if you're training in an area where nobody is around or nobody is talking then there isn't much you can do to seem non-botty :o