My take on the GE dip

[jirenma2001us]

Of course not all prices in GE are falling. Just look at the GE home and you'll notice that there are some items on the rise.

 

 

 

I am looking at two items particular items on GE. One is the F2P item that anyone can get...

 

The mithril bar.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices are falling and have been falling steadily and much of the fall has been before the most recent update. This alone doesn't make a case.

 

 

 

This might shed some light.

 

Mith Grapple

 

 

 

 

 

 

It's not often that you see people talking about mithril grapples on RS, but it's a fact that the mithril grapple is a members item and it requires range and agility to use and smithing and fletching to make. I can only imagine that this price drop suggests that fewer people are playing RS at the moment, especially member servers.

 

 

 

We haven't had GE for that long, it's hard to make good assessments. My best assessment is that many people have gone back to school and are not playing as frequently. If in a year or so we see the same trend, it will all make sense.

 

 

 

 

 

In the meantime, it's a very very very good time to be buying mithril bars.

[mega_vegeta6]

rocking out made them go up in the first place?

[Cinos]

Stuff is actually rising in price.

 

 

 

Tassets/DFS/BGS/Bandos Chest/ZGS/Fury/Guthans/Sara Brews/ Nests are unbuyable in the g.e. at max and have been rising lots in the past couple of days, might be due to merchanters hoarding them though.

[Julius47108]

I was thinking of buying mithril bars and making them into grapples for profit though I don't think many people really need them, if your gonna do GWD you usually have a few in your bank so when you come back it's just as quick.

[Heroadamite]

if mith bars drop some more i might buy some and train smithing :P

[Julius47108]

if mith bars drop some more i might buy some and train smithing :P

 

But what if the items you'll smith drop with it? :ohnoes:

[No_99_Melee]

People go based on projections that appear to them and not future prices. When an item goes down 100k people think it will continue going down and therefore sell all of that item, but in doing so cause the supply to go up and price to go down. Then when it stabilizes a bit people think it's gonna go back up so they immediately buy it out and therefore cause demand to increase for it driving the price up. If they never caused the first supply to rapidly grow the price would've never fallen.

 

 

 

Oh and also I think the cause for the mith grapple decline was probably because of investment clans. They usually buy out an item to cause the price to increase, but then can't sell again (who buys mith grapples?) and increase the supply to make prices drop faster than they increased.

[Omar]

Stuff is actually rising in price.

 

 

 

Tassets/DFS/BGS/Bandos Chest/ZGS/Fury/Guthans/Sara Brews/ Nests are unbuyable in the g.e. at max and have been rising lots in the past couple of days, might be due to merchanters hoarding them though.

 

It is. I don't know of ZGS out-buying but I'm positive the rest is being hoarded. In a way, except for brews and nests because I'm not sure how they took the recent crash, they're putting items back in their places, albeit for a small period of time. :lol:

[InkofDeath]

Mithril could just be decreasing because a 'weird' or 'odd' amount of smithers are no longer using Mithril, and are using another material, or have found better ways. I do know making mith grapples was popular, thus it could have been overused and is now dying out. Just like most other jewelery.

[jirenma2001us]

I'm curious about this anyway

 

 

 

How much does hording affect a price?

 

I would assume that if I have 500 mithril bars in my bank, it's not going to do much to the GE economy.

 

 

 

...am I wrong? lol

[Y2g2003]

I would be less concerned with mith bars and more concerned with mith ore. Unless bars get down to a price where ores are, of course.

 

 

 

When I neared the end of my last membership I decided to do a HUGE grind at the blast furnace. Bought up enough ores that I was satisfied with, also bought or mined the coal, and then just went for it. Made the bars into plates, put them up in the GE, and sold every single one of them over a long periode of time (wasn't playing to begin with anyways, so I obviously had enough patcience to wait).

 

 

 

The origional plan was to get as many bars as I could, then smith them when I was f2p again... sadly I no lifed and they were all gone by the time my membership ran out... but hey... made the same amount of money and exp anyways... so whatever.

 

 

 

Buying bars... you would take a hit in exp maybe, but if it were significantly cheaper... it would make more sense. I don't have the time to crunch numbers, I'll leave that to someone who is more dedicated.

 

 

 

EDIT: Ok... so I lied... here are the numbers...

 

 

 

To take a Mith ore and turn it into a bar using the blast furnace costs roughly 499 (This is buying 1 mith ore and 2 coal). That is using the Market Price provided by the GE. That is a 532 difference in cost between actually buying the commodities and making them yourself.

 

 

 

On a scale of 1000... your experience in smelting and smithing from start to finish would be 80,000 exp... while buying the bars would only get you 50,000. So you're spending more money and getting less exp when you could be spending less money and get more exp. And then reselling the final products would actually gain you even more money (more money for me translated into doing this process on a bigger scale).

[Lt_Surge]

Stuff is actually rising in price.

 

 

 

Tassets/DFS/BGS/Bandos Chest/ZGS/Fury/Guthans/Sara Brews/ Nests are unbuyable in the g.e. at max and have been rising lots in the past couple of days, might be due to merchanters hoarding them though.

 

 

 

On another thread, someone said that a couple of those items are being manipulated. Tassets, BGS, Brews, Nests, and also Armadyl armour (which you didn't list, but they mentioned.).

 

EDIT: Someone mentioned Bandos Chest, Fury, And DFS, also.

 

 

 

These are being totally bought out by merchants, who will force the prices up and then dump their items, causing them to crash again.

[Creator288]

Mith grapples could have also fallen due to the fact that Armadyl items themselfs where falling? Indicating a decline in the amount of people headed to the boss (as mith grapple is needed.)

 

It would be intresting to see if it started rising in price now that Armadyl items (not godsword) are starting to increase in price.

[UserOnRS]

Stuff is actually rising in price.

 

 

 

Tassets/DFS/BGS/Bandos Chest/ZGS/Fury/Guthans/Sara Brews/ Nests are unbuyable in the g.e. at max and have been rising lots in the past couple of days, might be due to merchanters hoarding them though.

 

 

 

On another thread, someone said that a couple of those items are being manipulated. Tassets, BGS, Brews, Nests, and also Armadyl armour (which you didn't list, but they mentioned.).

 

EDIT: Someone mentioned Bandos Chest, Fury, And DFS, also.

 

 

 

These are being totally bought out by merchants, who will force the prices up and then dump their items, causing them to crash again.

I know a friend who has bought 2 furies and 1 guthan spear over the last few days, they're hard to buy at max but not as hard as some items.

[Ouchy]

My best guess is that things have dropped due to school starting back in some countries that have a rather large population of the RuneScape community.

 

Since The Grand Exchange has not been out for a year, which also means that any drops in pirce are [sarcasm] the end of the world[/sarcasm], we might even see that this in an annually price drop.

[InkofDeath]

I'm curious about this anyway

 

 

 

How much does hording affect a price?

 

I would assume that if I have 500 mithril bars in my bank, it's not going to do much to the GE economy.

 

 

 

...am I wrong? lol

 

Merchants who have over 2billion in rares, and possible 700 to 900 million in actual GP can buy mass amounts. There's probably only a few hundred with this much money, but they know how to use it.

 

 

 

Add in old duelers or stakes coming back, but having tons of money, and just using those as well to control smaller fields.

[raaarga]

I am getting sick and tired of 20 new threads about GE prices on the front page of this forum every day. We get it; PRICES ARE DROPPING. How many different ways can you say that? Yeah, godswords are dropping. Ores are dropping. The prices are [bleep]ed, people, we get it. Stop making a new thread every time something drops.

 

 

 

Jesus Christ.... :x :x :x :x :x

[TheHunted616]

I'm curious about this anyway

 

 

 

How much does hording affect a price?

 

I would assume that if I have 500 mithril bars in my bank, it's not going to do much to the GE economy.

 

 

 

...am I wrong? lol

 

Merchants who have over 2billion in rares, and possible 700 to 900 million in actual GP can buy mass amounts. There's probably only a few hundred with this much money, but they know how to use it.

 

 

 

Add in old duelers or stakes coming back, but having tons of money, and just using those as well to control smaller fields.

 

 

 

"Few hundred"

 

 

 

210 000 000 000 - 270 000 000 000

 

 

 

That's a lot of gold.

[Ouchy]

I have been pondering over this for a while, don't items usually drop every year because of some countries going back to school? It could make sense, as the people could sell there items as hey will not be needing them, which would drive the price lower.

[wioneo]

Do people actually by mith grapples? :lol: I just assumed that everyone had a stash that was collected from the crate like me...

[jirenma2001us]

I have been pondering over this for a while, don't items usually drop every year because of some countries going back to school? It could make sense, as the people could sell there items as hey will not be needing them, which would drive the price lower.

 

 

 

I don't know if some items drop or rise because school starts, but this is definite- RS traffic picked up considerably during the month of June / July 08.

 

From then on it tapered of, and it's at a different level. Obviously this is school vacation in the US. I saw someone post the website that monitors this kind of activity, but I don't know where it is atm.

 

 

 

This could be all that is happening, and either the markets will stabilize or Jagex will do something to fix the problem kind of like the Feds do in the real world.

[mario_sunny]

My GOD finally someone gets it right. I've been getting sick of these speculation threads, some of which included jagex manipulating the market and it having a large part to do with the upcoming pvp updates. Both of those are WRONG!

 

 

 

It is the school kids people!

[psvstef]

My GOD finally someone gets it right. I've been getting sick of these speculation threads, some of which included jagex manipulating the market and it having a large part to do with the upcoming pvp updates. Both of those are WRONG!

 

 

 

It is the school kids people!

 

 

 

they bought out dragon platelegs yesterday and today they rose 25k....

[mario_sunny]

My GOD finally someone gets it right. I've been getting sick of these speculation threads, some of which included jagex manipulating the market and it having a large part to do with the upcoming pvp updates. Both of those are WRONG!

 

 

 

It is the school kids people!

 

 

 

they bought out dragon platelegs yesterday and today they rose 25k....

 

 

 

Yes, that is because the price reached a point where buyers found it so incredibly cheap they couldn't resist and bought it. All it takes is a few buyers to make the price the next day stay rise. And this rise causes merchants to panic; in an attempt to ride the price wave they try to buy some of the item so they can sell it later for a higher price.

[koma1]

Stuff is actually rising in price.

 

 

 

Tassets/DFS/BGS/Bandos Chest/ZGS/Fury/Guthans/Sara Brews/ Nests are unbuyable in the g.e. at max and have been rising lots in the past couple of days, might be due to merchanters hoarding them though.

 

 

 

yes a merchant clan hoarded a massive number of brews and nests and dumped them two days ago and now brews are buyable at minimum price. Jagex really needs to do something about all this price manipulation as it's ruining the economy and making it difficult for skillers like me to get item at fair prices.