The Runescape economy (9/8/08)

[bedman]

How many times do I have to explain this! Seriously... would you read some topics on the general board? I actually think this is the 6th time I've had to reply to one of these price manipulation topics.

 

 

 

MOST of the items you now see shooting up in price are NOT a result of price manipulation, but RATHER the large amount of schoolkids recently dumping all their members items because they are returning to p2p. This causes a decline in price, then everyone starts buying them again because they are so cheap, then merchants see them shooting up, they buy a lot of them. It was not their original intension to manipulate bandos, for example.

 

 

 

The mods will never suceed at taking down price manipulation. It's like organised crime; it's organised, for one, and the law enforcement can never be 100% sure price manipulation is going on (or if it is just a result of merchant panic, a good example being one going on right now, which I just explained above). Without hard evidence, mods cannot ban suspected manipulators, because they could just claim they were buying the item at max price just because they wanted it. All mods can do is scare people, which is the sad truth, unless they want the reputation of banning innocent people (oh wait, they already have that :roll: ).

 

 

 

All GE limits are just terrible... and now I can almost garantee you jagex, being the [wagon] they are, will put even more limits on the GE severly restricting the average player and beating what's left of merchanting/investing into a bloody pulp. So typical of jagex just to put more limits on things, when they should be taking them away. And I'm almost positive they're going to come up with some long and winding story about how this "stops RWT."

 

 

 

You really, really, can't blame all the price changes on kids going to school. It would be a really, really big coincidence, that all these items are going up, right when acidy cc (and others) decide to buy them out. Okay, you said most, but still. You underestimate the power of rumors and and panicking.

 

It's a chain reaction. An item is low (for some reason, doesnt matter), a merchanting clan decides to buy it out. Word spreads. The item gets harder to buy. Normal people, or sole merchers detect this (they can't get it at max instantly). They jump on the train too. Tadamm.

 

Then the dumping. Of course, even when the dump is synchronized, not everyone can dump their items. That's why the big guys secretely dump early. All the noobs hoping for an easy merch, panic, and sell theirs quickly, for min, if max or med aint selling.

[Zox]

We have a very complicated trade system for new players.

 

People practically never sell things in banks like before anymore.

 

I'll be honest with you, I'd much rather have macroers.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For a solution, what you said. It's probably the best way.

[jettrider]

You really, really, can't blame all the price changes on kids going to school. It would be a really, really big coincidence, that all these items are going up, right when acidy cc (and others) decide to buy them out. Okay, you said most, but still. You underestimate the power of rumors and and panicking.

 

It's a chain reaction. An item is low (for some reason, doesnt matter), a merchanting clan decides to buy it out. Word spreads. The item gets harder to buy. Normal people, or sole merchers detect this (they can't get it at max instantly). They jump on the train too. Tadamm.

 

Then the dumping. Of course, even when the dump is synchronized, not everyone can dump their items. That's why the big guys secretely dump early. All the noobs hoping for an easy merch, panic, and sell theirs quickly, for min, if max or med aint selling.

 

 

 

You really, really, can blame all the price changes on kids going to school. It would be a really, really big coincidence, that all these items are going up, right after they crashed in price because of bank sales. Acidy's clan chat is not where price manipulation occurs. Acidy's cc is for people who are in separate hoarding groups to tell everyone that their chosen item is going up while they are selling the item in the GE.

 

 

 

Then the dumping. Of course, even when the dump is unsynchronized, everyone can dump their items. Why? Because people who read the basic merch guides see the item is going up and try to buy into it, meaning everyone can sell theirs and the people who lose are the ones who believe the merch guides. The panicy "noobs" are the ones who dump early and that's why they hang out in acidy's cc because they can't stay in any real hoarding groups.

[bedman]

You really, really, can't blame all the price changes on kids going to school. It would be a really, really big coincidence, that all these items are going up, right when acidy cc (and others) decide to buy them out. Okay, you said most, but still. You underestimate the power of rumors and and panicking.

 

It's a chain reaction. An item is low (for some reason, doesnt matter), a merchanting clan decides to buy it out. Word spreads. The item gets harder to buy. Normal people, or sole merchers detect this (they can't get it at max instantly). They jump on the train too. Tadamm.

 

Then the dumping. Of course, even when the dump is synchronized, not everyone can dump their items. That's why the big guys secretely dump early. All the noobs hoping for an easy merch, panic, and sell theirs quickly, for min, if max or med aint selling.

 

 

 

You really, really, can blame all the price changes on kids going to school. It would be a really, really big coincidence, that all these items are going up, right after they crashed in price because of bank sales. Acidy's clan chat is not where price manipulation occurs. Acidy's cc is for people who are in separate hoarding groups to tell everyone that their chosen item is going up while they are selling the item in the GE.

 

 

 

Then the dumping. Of course, even when the dump is unsynchronized, everyone can dump their items. Why? Because people who read the basic merch guides see the item is going up and try to buy into it, meaning everyone can sell theirs and the people who lose are the ones who believe the merch guides. The panicy "noobs" are the ones who dump early and that's why they hang out in acidy's cc because they can't stay in any real hoarding groups.

 

 

 

I've read, and reread your reply (first paragraph) and still don't get most of it #-o

 

 

 

Anyway, I've been cheching some price graphs, and you might be right about the school kids. The prices did initially drop because of kids selling their gear. However, this really doesnt account to all the "manipulated" stuff. There's other stuff, thas has been going, where there's no link with kids starting school.

 

However, the price rise is still IMO a combined effect of smart people buying when it's low, and rumors spreading. (what I've explained before).

 

 

 

Then the second paragraph. If I get you right, you say Acidy cc is always behind the real hoarders? You are implying people are secretely hoarding an item that's going down/is low in value, and then spread the rumor to buy it out, right? Well, in some cases that might be true. In other cases however, I really dont see how they can possible make profit. I've seen items being "advertised", that were still going down/ were on their lowest, so I cant see how any secret hoarder can make profits by selling it at that time. (Of course, if they manage to create interest in the item, they are the first one to have them, probably for min price, so they make more than the others, but still. What I mean is: sometimes the item didnt really work and crashes already after a day, so I don't see how these secret hoarders can possible make a huge profit there).

[jirenma2001us]

I read through a lot of this...

 

 

 

I'm pretty sure Jagex will come up with something.

 

 

 

Wouldn't it be in Jagex' best interest to set up a monitoring system?

 

 

 

I think that whenever someone sells or buys a high profile item on GE (such as bandos / godswords etc), *something* should copy the last 3 minutes and next 3 minutes of chat (including clan chat) to determine if there is any 'questionable' activity. This is primarily similar to what happens when you report someone. I think Jagex can be clever in that respect.

 

 

 

I'm not gonna steer this chat into a different direction but I'm sure Jagex has something up its sleeves

[jettrider]

You really, really, can blame all the price changes on kids going to school. It would be a really, really big coincidence, that all these items are going up, right after they crashed in price because of bank sales. Acidy's clan chat is not where price manipulation occurs. Acidy's cc is for people who are in separate hoarding groups to tell everyone that their chosen item is going up while they are selling the item in the GE.

 

 

 

I've read, and reread your reply (first paragraph) and still don't get most of it #-o

 

 

 

Anyway, I've been checking some price graphs, and you might be right about the school kids. The prices did initially drop because of kids selling their gear. However, this really doesn't account to all the "manipulated" stuff. There's other stuff, that has been going, where there's no link with kids starting school.

 

However, the price rise is still IMO a combined effect of smart people buying when it's low, and rumors spreading. (what I've explained before).

 

 

 

Then the second paragraph. If I get you right, you say Acidy cc is always behind the real hoarders? You are implying people are secretely hoarding an item that's going down/is low in value, and then spread the rumor to buy it out, right? Well, in some cases that might be true. In other cases however, I really dont see how they can possible make profit. I've seen items being "advertised", that were still going down/ were on their lowest, so I cant see how any secret hoarder can make profits by selling it at that time. (Of course, if they manage to create interest in the item, they are the first one to have them, probably for min price, so they make more than the others, but still. What I mean is: sometimes the item didnt really work and crashes already after a day, so I don't see how these secret hoarders can possible make a huge profit there).

 

 

 

You basically answered your first question with your first paragraph. Schoolgoers sold all their stuff thinking that it'll drop and they want to save their cash value. This creates the old waterfall effect and more people buy into this theory. The value of gold remained unchanged as raw materials and rares stayed flat, but everything else tanked. A few weeks into school the market recorrected, prices began to go back up.

 

 

 

A point I'd like to make is that no kind of merchant can alter the long-term average line. Hoarding will hit a new high and drop to a new low, then return to its pre-hoard value. Investing into items with curvy lines keeps the average flat. Short-term merchanting of volatile items only slows the progress of the average line slightly.

 

 

 

Acidy's clan chat basically died because of unlimited access and huge popularity. Many other clan chats are now used. However, for this to work properly, a single decision on item must be made and no backstabbing may occur. This is why these hoarding groups must be reputable for them to profit - - unlike Acidy's clan chat, half full of manipulators and half full of people asking stupid questions and price checks.

 

 

 

 

 

I think that whenever someone sells or buys a high profile item on GE (such as bandos / godswords etc), *something* should copy the last 3 minutes and next 3 minutes of chat (including clan chat) to determine if there is any 'questionable' activity. This is primarily similar to what happens when you report someone. I think Jagex can be clever in that respect.

 

 

 

NO! This would give rise to more pointless and careless black marks and bannings being delivered to innocent players.

 

 

 

Player1 to Player2: Should I buy a bgs now?

 

Player2: Yeah, they'll probably rise soon

 

 

 

How is that any different from:

 

 

 

Player2: Dark bows will go up soon, now's a good time to buy

 

Player2: They buy for about 1025k

 

 

 

The first example is honest discussion between two friends about when to buy an item. The second could be a way to alert member of a hoarding clan chat when to buy or sell the item.

 

 

 

The only possible fix is to limit the amount of items you can buy at a time to 1 for godswords, 2-5 for common items. However, this would be on par with removing direct trading. The only reason that the Grand Exchange works as an alternative to free trade is that you can choose the price to buy for, and therefore use it to make a profit. This is one of the key cornerstones of RS, that people can choose to make their money as a trader rather than a monsterkiller or skiller.

[Omali]

We have a very complicated trade system for new players.

 

People practically never sell things in banks like before anymore.

 

I'll be honest with you, I'd much rather have macroers.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For a solution, what you said. It's probably the best way.

 

 

 

Yea, I'd rather have macroers back and the game shut down in less than a year!

 

 

 

Oh wait... #-o

[jettrider]

We have a very complicated trade system for new players.

 

People practically never sell things in banks like before anymore.

 

I'll be honest with you, I'd much rather have macroers.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For a solution, what you said. It's probably the best way.

 

 

 

Yea, I'd rather have macroers back and the game shut down in less than a year!

 

 

 

Oh wait... #-o

 

 

 

I thought everyone got over that same argument.

 

 

 

But I also have to disagree with you. The trade system has been simplified because you don't have to worry about being ripped off. You can still buy from players (only now you know the real price), but you can also buy from the GE.

[Laura]

You really, really, can blame all the price changes on kids going to school. It would be a really, really big coincidence, that all these items are going up, right after they crashed in price because of bank sales. Acidy's clan chat is not where price manipulation occurs. Acidy's cc is for people who are in separate hoarding groups to tell everyone that their chosen item is going up while they are selling the item in the GE.

 

 

 

I've read, and reread your reply (first paragraph) and still don't get most of it #-o

 

 

 

Anyway, I've been checking some price graphs, and you might be right about the school kids. The prices did initially drop because of kids selling their gear. However, this really doesn't account to all the "manipulated" stuff. There's other stuff, that has been going, where there's no link with kids starting school.

 

However, the price rise is still IMO a combined effect of smart people buying when it's low, and rumors spreading. (what I've explained before).

 

 

 

Then the second paragraph. If I get you right, you say Acidy cc is always behind the real hoarders? You are implying people are secretely hoarding an item that's going down/is low in value, and then spread the rumor to buy it out, right? Well, in some cases that might be true. In other cases however, I really dont see how they can possible make profit. I've seen items being "advertised", that were still going down/ were on their lowest, so I cant see how any secret hoarder can make profits by selling it at that time. (Of course, if they manage to create interest in the item, they are the first one to have them, probably for min price, so they make more than the others, but still. What I mean is: sometimes the item didnt really work and crashes already after a day, so I don't see how these secret hoarders can possible make a huge profit there).

 

 

 

You basically answered your first question with your first paragraph. Schoolgoers sold all their stuff thinking that it'll drop and they want to save their cash value. This creates the old waterfall effect and more people buy into this theory. The value of gold remained unchanged as raw materials and rares stayed flat, but everything else tanked. A few weeks into school the market recorrected, prices began to go back up.

 

 

 

A point I'd like to make is that no kind of merchant can alter the long-term average line. Hoarding will hit a new high and drop to a new low, then return to its pre-hoard value. Investing into items with curvy lines keeps the average flat. Short-term merchanting of volatile items only slows the progress of the average line slightly.

 

 

 

Acidy's clan chat basically died because of unlimited access and huge popularity. Many other clan chats are now used. However, for this to work properly, a single decision on item must be made and no backstabbing may occur. This is why these hoarding groups must be reputable for them to profit - - unlike Acidy's clan chat, half full of manipulators and half full of people asking stupid questions and price checks.

 

 

 

 

 

I think that whenever someone sells or buys a high profile item on GE (such as bandos / godswords etc), *something* should copy the last 3 minutes and next 3 minutes of chat (including clan chat) to determine if there is any 'questionable' activity. This is primarily similar to what happens when you report someone. I think Jagex can be clever in that respect.

 

 

 

NO! This would give rise to more pointless and careless black marks and bannings being delivered to innocent players.

 

 

 

Player1 to Player2: Should I buy a bgs now?

 

Player2: Yeah, they'll probably rise soon

 

 

 

How is that any different from:

 

 

 

Player2: Dark bows will go up soon, now's a good time to buy

 

Player2: They buy for about 1025k

 

 

 

The first example is honest discussion between two friends about when to buy an item. The second could be a way to alert member of a hoarding clan chat when to buy or sell the item.

 

 

 

The only possible fix is to limit the amount of items you can buy at a time to 1 for godswords, 2-5 for common items. However, this would be on par with removing direct trading. The only reason that the Grand Exchange works as an alternative to free trade is that you can choose the price to buy for, and therefore use it to make a profit. This is one of the key cornerstones of RS, that people can choose to make their money as a trader rather than a monsterkiller or skiller.

 

 

 

I've read your post over and over, I still don't understand how you came to that conclusion. While I agree, the schoolgoers were a cause into the snowball effect, the sum was quite a different outcome. Although, over the course of the year, you start to see that items that plummet soon rise to a peak, then plummet again, less and less each time until the reach a stabilization point. At which, only slight short-term merchant will affect the slope of the graph and thus the price of the item. However, I do fault A C I D Y's clan chat for the majority of the after effects of the snowball. It isn't merely coincidence that they say "Buy out PPots", and sure enough, hours later, they are all bought out. It's really a win/lose situation for the ongoers in the chat.

 

 

 

The big dogs converse among themselves to buy perhaps 50%(made up number) of the market out. After which, they tell the others in the channel that so and so item is now going to rise/be manipulated/bought out. They get the items before the rush, while others struggle to pull in at max. Days later it rises, and the set price to dump is near, however, instead of sticking to their word, the item is dumped before the price is even within 5% of the dumping price and the market now contains that 50% of an item back. Only people hopping on the train to late are going to buy them, which is exactly what they wanted. Now everyone else is stuck with so and so item while the demand for the item can't keep up, selling the items, in hops for a smaller profit than intended. And now, more often than not, they end up losing money on this parasitic relationship, but the word just continues to grow and grow.

[InkofDeath]

Price manipulation against the runescape rules? Way for Jagex to kill their economy even more ( and a quick way to get that 400m+ of gp out of the game quickly).

 

 

 

Jagex apparently doesn't like people manipulating flaws, or possible 'open areas' in the game. Much like why Jagex doesn't support those who do not train certain stats, or why Jagex frowns upon merchanting.

 

 

 

There's nothing wrong with merchanting, even if it does screw other people over.

[Laura]

Price manipulation against the runescape rules? Way for Jagex to kill their economy even more ( and a quick way to get that 400m+ of gp out of the game quickly).

 

 

 

Jagex apparently doesn't like people manipulating flaws, or possible 'open areas' in the game. Much like why Jagex doesn't support those who do not train certain stats, or why Jagex frowns upon merchanting.

 

 

 

There's nothing wrong with merchanting, even if it does screw other people over.

 

You're getting two terms mixed up. Merchanting is A OK. Manipulating is, apparently, not.

[jirenma2001us]

[hide=Click to read the quote]

 

I think that whenever someone sells or buys a high profile item on GE (such as bandos / godswords etc), *something* should copy the last 3 minutes and next 3 minutes of chat (including clan chat) to determine if there is any 'questionable' activity. This is primarily similar to what happens when you report someone. I think Jagex can be clever in that respect.

 

 

 

NO! This would give rise to more pointless and careless black marks and bannings being delivered to innocent players.

 

 

 

Player1 to Player2: Should I buy a bgs now?

 

Player2: Yeah, they'll probably rise soon

 

 

 

How is that any different from:

 

 

 

Player2: Dark bows will go up soon, now's a good time to buy

 

Player2: They buy for about 1025k

 

 

 

The first example is honest discussion between two friends about when to buy an item. The second could be a way to alert member of a hoarding clan chat when to buy or sell the item.

 

 

 

The only possible fix is to limit the amount of items you can buy at a time to 1 for godswords, 2-5 for common items. However, this would be on par with removing direct trading. The only reason that the Grand Exchange works as an alternative to free trade is that you can choose the price to buy for, and therefore use it to make a profit. This is one of the key cornerstones of RS, that people can choose to make their money as a trader rather than a monsterkiller or skiller.

[/hide]

 

 

 

I don't think I explained myself well. All chat should be considered, including game chat. Here is an example

 

 

 

LOG-----

 

mynameisgurl: what's the item we're after?

 

mynameisearl: sara godsword

 

mynameisearl: them be expensive 50mil plus each

 

mynameisburl: I think I can get 4...

 

mynameisgurl: I can get 8

 

mynameisburl: ready to buy yet?

 

mynameisearl: buying... now

 

***You have just purchased 10 god swords for 521,000,000 gold.

 

mynameisearl: OK I've just made the purchase, everyone else join in!

 

mynameisburl: OK!

 

mynameisgurl: I bought a lot too!!

 

 

 

The purchase is questionable, thus a flag is raised. The flag will capture all chat 3 minutes previous and 3 minutes onward. Of course the chat is questionable, but the purchase itself is extremely questionable.

 

 

 

I think Jagex can obtain the information they need if a flag is raised. Maybe a flag should be raised when a person buys a specific 'flaggable' item. If the GE transaction is not suspicious, then no worries!

 

 

 

And I wouldn't consider banning them. We have mute for people who use offensive language. We should have a three strikes GE ban on people who abuse the system [One week, One Month, One Year / Forever] . Besides, what did we all do BEFORE GE?

 

 

 

Answer: Trade

[jettrider]

I've read your post over and over, I still don't understand how you came to that conclusion. While I agree, the schoolgoers were a cause into the snowball effect, the sum was quite a different outcome. Although, over the course of the year, you start to see that items that plummet soon rise to a peak, then plummet again, less and less each time until the reach a stabilization point. At which, only slight short-term merchant will affect the slope of the graph and thus the price of the item. However, I do fault A C I D Y's clan chat for the majority of the after effects of the snowball. It isn't merely coincidence that they say "Buy out PPots", and sure enough, hours later, they are all bought out. It's really a win/lose situation for the ongoers in the chat.

 

 

 

The big dogs converse among themselves to buy perhaps 50%(made up number) of the market out. After which, they tell the others in the channel that so and so item is now going to rise/be manipulated/bought out. They get the items before the rush, while others struggle to pull in at max. Days later it rises, and the set price to dump is near, however, instead of sticking to their word, the item is dumped before the price is even within 5% of the dumping price and the market now contains that 50% of an item back. Only people hopping on the train to late are going to buy them, which is exactly what they wanted. Now everyone else is stuck with so and so item while the demand for the item can't keep up, selling the items, in hops for a smaller profit than intended. And now, more often than not, they end up losing money on this parasitic relationship, but the word just continues to grow and grow.

 

 

 

I'm a bit confused. Which conclusion do you disagree with? I'm going to assume that it's the one that hoarding does not affect the long-term average.

 

 

 

I'll give a simple example of dark bows. They were around 1.2m at the time, and a merchant clan decided to pick them up. Within 2 days they didn't buy at max, and they rose to 1.5m. Then they tanked all the way down to 900k, where they went back up to 1.2m. The average price does not change, just the timing of the rises and falls is affected by merchanting.

 

 

 

Short term merchanting is generally: 1) A little under mid and a little over mid for stable items; 2) A little over min and a little under mid for falling items; 3) A little over mid and a little under max for rising items. In each of these cases, the item is still transferred for the average price. However, if a lot of people buy at min and sell just under mid the fall will be slower than people buying and selling at min.

 

 

 

Investing is simply "riding the wave." It makes the ups and downs slightly more dramatic, but the average stays the same.

 

 

 

I don't think I explained myself well. All chat should be considered, including game chat. Here is an example

 

 

 

LOG-----

 

mynameisgurl: what's the item we're after?

 

mynameisearl: sara godsword

 

mynameisearl: them be expensive 50mil plus each

 

mynameisburl: I think I can get 4...

 

mynameisgurl: I can get 8

 

mynameisburl: ready to buy yet?

 

mynameisearl: buying... now

 

***You have just purchased 10 god swords for 521,000,000 gold.

 

mynameisearl: OK I've just made the purchase, everyone else join in!

 

mynameisburl: OK!

 

mynameisgurl: I bought a lot too!!

 

 

 

The purchase is questionable, thus a flag is raised. The flag will capture all chat 3 minutes previous and 3 minutes onward. Of course the chat is questionable, but the purchase itself is extremely questionable.

 

 

 

I think Jagex can obtain the information they need if a flag is raised. Maybe a flag should be raised when a person buys a specific 'flaggable' item. If the GE transaction is not suspicious, then no worries!

 

 

 

And I wouldn't consider banning them. We have mute for people who use offensive language. We should have a three strikes GE ban on people who abuse the system [One week, One Month, One Year / Forever] .

 

 

 

That example did not change my opinion. There is too much gray area, undefined rule breaks and interpretations. Even rule 1, the most interpretive rule, is governed by specific do's and don'ts.

 

 

 

First you have to distinguish what exactly is against the rules. Is it conspiring with other players to raise or lower prices? Or is it no merchanting at all? I think you mean the first, so I'll raise a question. Couldn't the above example be interpreted as friends discussing what items are good to merchant? What is the line between giving advice on merchanting and hoarding as a group? Are 3 people who match buy and sell prices in order to not overcut/undercut each other considered hoarders?

 

 

 

Merchanting is simply too massive of a topic to set judgment limits on. The only way to disallow it is to configure the game to not allow it. Imagine if all items had only the market price and we had no player to player trade at all. That's one of the only alternatives if this doesn't go down to judgment.

 

 

 

Think what you are asking Jagex employees to do. First, hundreds of thousands of offers are put in for these "high profile items" every day. What are the parameters for allowing a flag to be raised? Then they have to trawl through 6 minutes worth of chat and offer making, which can get really tedious based on which clan chat the player was in. Also, the GE is always extremely busy and chat adds up quick there for *most* cases.

 

 

 

Then, when flagged reports come under an employee's eye, they must make a judgment call based on that. Blackmarks and trading bans are serious. Many innocent players will be given a punishment debatably worse than a mute.

 

 

 

So I hold the same opinion, that the gray area is too much for a new rule or changes to the item scamming rule.

[r4ngewarlord]

well as much as i hate this whole merchanting thingy i dont think they should put a trade limit on it honestly they have to many restrictions already my idea everyone in tip it just dont buy a bgs when its a high price just ignore it and wait it will drop........ adventually :wall:

[Promise]

How many times do I have to explain this! Seriously... would you read some topics on the general board? I actually think this is the 6th time I've had to reply to one of these price manipulation topics.

 

 

 

MOST of the items you now see shooting up in price are NOT a result of price manipulation, but RATHER the large amount of schoolkids recently dumping all their members items because they are returning to p2p. This causes a decline in price, then everyone starts buying them again because they are so cheap, then merchants see them shooting up, they buy a lot of them. It was not their original intension to manipulate bandos, for example.

 

 

 

The mods will never suceed at taking down price manipulation. It's like organised crime; it's organised, for one, and the law enforcement can never be 100% sure price manipulation is going on (or if it is just a result of merchant panic, a good example being one going on right now, which I just explained above). Without hard evidence, mods cannot ban suspected manipulators, because they could just claim they were buying the item at max price just because they wanted it. All mods can do is scare people, which is the sad truth, unless they want the reputation of banning innocent people (oh wait, they already have that :roll: ).

 

 

 

All GE limits are just terrible... and now I can almost garantee you jagex, being the [wagon] they are, will put even more limits on the GE severly restricting the average player and beating what's left of merchanting/investing into a bloody pulp. So typical of jagex just to put more limits on things, when they should be taking them away. And I'm almost positive they're going to come up with some long and winding story about how this "stops RWT."

 

 

 

Very true, but there's some parts I don't agree with. Your assumption that deciding whether its a merchant panic or manipulation is somewhat wrong. Do you remember a few months back, BGS would go up 50k than everyone starts buying it, then decides to sell it. It would plumit 1m one day than two days later be up 500k. Now compare that to what just happened. The BGS magicly goes up 5m? Everyone see's this, then decides to try and buy it for max price. Now the people you say are "manipulating" are obviously going to dump their BGS and make that huge profit. Now supply has dramatically increased and everyone is happy. Now they all decide they want to make that quick buck and sell it. That fails and now everyone begins to sell their BGS hoping to break even or lose minimal cash. The next day people see that the BGS droped a mere 200k and begin to panic.

 

 

 

I also wouldn't exactly call this price manipulation, but a monopoly. Everything else you said is pretty much on the money. Also, I'd like to add to your Jagex putting more restrictions. I think if Jagex never released the G.E. and still gave us some breathing room for merchanting, this would never happen...well it did, at a MUCH slower rate.

[Laura]

I've read your post over and over, I still don't understand how you came to that conclusion. While I agree, the schoolgoers were a cause into the snowball effect, the sum was quite a different outcome. Although, over the course of the year, you start to see that items that plummet soon rise to a peak, then plummet again, less and less each time until the reach a stabilization point. At which, only slight short-term merchant will affect the slope of the graph and thus the price of the item. However, I do fault A C I D Y's clan chat for the majority of the after effects of the snowball. It isn't merely coincidence that they say "Buy out PPots", and sure enough, hours later, they are all bought out. It's really a win/lose situation for the ongoers in the chat.

 

 

 

The big dogs converse among themselves to buy perhaps 50%(made up number) of the market out. After which, they tell the others in the channel that so and so item is now going to rise/be manipulated/bought out. They get the items before the rush, while others struggle to pull in at max. Days later it rises, and the set price to dump is near, however, instead of sticking to their word, the item is dumped before the price is even within 5% of the dumping price and the market now contains that 50% of an item back. Only people hopping on the train to late are going to buy them, which is exactly what they wanted. Now everyone else is stuck with so and so item while the demand for the item can't keep up, selling the items, in hops for a smaller profit than intended. And now, more often than not, they end up losing money on this parasitic relationship, but the word just continues to grow and grow.

 

 

 

I'm a bit confused. Which conclusion do you disagree with? I'm going to assume that it's the one that hoarding does not affect the long-term average.

 

 

 

I'll give a simple example of dark bows. They were around 1.2m at the time, and a merchant clan decided to pick them up. Within 2 days they didn't buy at max, and they rose to 1.5m. Then they tanked all the way down to 900k, where they went back up to 1.2m. The average price does not change, just the timing of the rises and falls is affected by merchanting.

 

 

 

Short term merchanting is generally: 1) A little under mid and a little over mid for stable items; 2) A little over min and a little under mid for falling items; 3) A little over mid and a little under max for rising items. In each of these cases, the item is still transferred for the average price. However, if a lot of people buy at min and sell just under mid the fall will be slower than people buying and selling at min.

 

 

 

Investing is simply "riding the wave." It makes the ups and downs slightly more dramatic, but the average stays the same.

 

 

 

I understand that well. But I do fault A C I D Y's clan chat for the majority of the price effects after the GE update. And that people can't sell their items while they're being dumped.

[Ryuuka]

Want to know a good example? About a few days ago from today (9/8/08), All bandos items went in a massive demand, Bgs went from 20m to 25m+ ect. That was from the doing of people who buy out items. And now look at bandos now, Every peice is going down dramatically.

 

 

 

also one of the reasons bandos went up was because a group of people bought out saradomin brews at the same time and birds nests so the potions rose very high are when they do that it will affect the price of gwd armour and weapons

 

 

 

I've read your post over and over, I still don't understand how you came to that conclusion. While I agree, the schoolgoers were a cause into the snowball effect, the sum was quite a different outcome. Although, over the course of the year, you start to see that items that plummet soon rise to a peak, then plummet again, less and less each time until the reach a stabilization point. At which, only slight short-term merchant will affect the slope of the graph and thus the price of the item. However, I do fault A C I D Y's clan chat for the majority of the after effects of the snowball. It isn't merely coincidence that they say "Buy out PPots", and sure enough, hours later, they are all bought out. It's really a win/lose situation for the ongoers in the chat.

 

 

 

The big dogs converse among themselves to buy perhaps 50%(made up number) of the market out. After which, they tell the others in the channel that so and so item is now going to rise/be manipulated/bought out. They get the items before the rush, while others struggle to pull in at max. Days later it rises, and the set price to dump is near, however, instead of sticking to their word, the item is dumped before the price is even within 5% of the dumping price and the market now contains that 50% of an item back. Only people hopping on the train to late are going to buy them, which is exactly what they wanted. Now everyone else is stuck with so and so item while the demand for the item can't keep up, selling the items, in hops for a smaller profit than intended. And now, more often than not, they end up losing money on this parasitic relationship, but the word just continues to grow and grow.

 

 

 

I'm a bit confused. Which conclusion do you disagree with? I'm going to assume that it's the one that hoarding does not affect the long-term average.

 

 

 

I'll give a simple example of dark bows. They were around 1.2m at the time, and a merchant clan decided to pick them up. Within 2 days they didn't buy at max, and they rose to 1.5m. Then they tanked all the way down to 900k, where they went back up to 1.2m. The average price does not change, just the timing of the rises and falls is affected by merchanting.

 

 

 

Short term merchanting is generally: 1) A little under mid and a little over mid for stable items; 2) A little over min and a little under mid for falling items; 3) A little over mid and a little under max for rising items. In each of these cases, the item is still transferred for the average price. However, if a lot of people buy at min and sell just under mid the fall will be slower than people buying and selling at min.

 

 

 

Investing is simply "riding the wave." It makes the ups and downs slightly more dramatic, but the average stays the same.

 

 

 

I understand that well. But I do fault A C I D Y's clan chat for the majority of the price effects after the GE update. And that people can't sell their items while they're being dumped.

 

 

 

A C I D Y isnt focused enough to do any big buy outs its mostly "noobs" trying to make money and wanting it the easy way. A C I D Y dont even use the chat but uses other cc's instead and then goes to A C I D Y when they are about to dump their items and then tell them to buy out the items so that they can sell their items with ease.

 

 

 

conclution: A C I D Y can't do anything big to the economy the real enemy is the bigger clans(like the one that made 450m in 1 night with bandos)

[Omar]

Want to know a good example? About a few days ago from today (9/8/08), All bandos items went in a massive demand, Bgs went from 20m to 25m+ ect. That was from the doing of people who buy out items. And now look at bandos now, Every peice is going down dramatically.

 

 

 

also one of the reasons bandos went up was because a group of people bought out saradomin brews at the same time and birds nests so the potions rose very high are when they do that it will affect the price of gwd armour and weapons

 

 

 

I've read your post over and over, I still don't understand how you came to that conclusion. While I agree, the schoolgoers were a cause into the snowball effect, the sum was quite a different outcome. Although, over the course of the year, you start to see that items that plummet soon rise to a peak, then plummet again, less and less each time until the reach a stabilization point. At which, only slight short-term merchant will affect the slope of the graph and thus the price of the item. However, I do fault A C I D Y's clan chat for the majority of the after effects of the snowball. It isn't merely coincidence that they say "Buy out PPots", and sure enough, hours later, they are all bought out. It's really a win/lose situation for the ongoers in the chat.

 

 

 

The big dogs converse among themselves to buy perhaps 50%(made up number) of the market out. After which, they tell the others in the channel that so and so item is now going to rise/be manipulated/bought out. They get the items before the rush, while others struggle to pull in at max. Days later it rises, and the set price to dump is near, however, instead of sticking to their word, the item is dumped before the price is even within 5% of the dumping price and the market now contains that 50% of an item back. Only people hopping on the train to late are going to buy them, which is exactly what they wanted. Now everyone else is stuck with so and so item while the demand for the item can't keep up, selling the items, in hops for a smaller profit than intended. And now, more often than not, they end up losing money on this parasitic relationship, but the word just continues to grow and grow.

 

 

 

I'm a bit confused. Which conclusion do you disagree with? I'm going to assume that it's the one that hoarding does not affect the long-term average.

 

 

 

I'll give a simple example of dark bows. They were around 1.2m at the time, and a merchant clan decided to pick them up. Within 2 days they didn't buy at max, and they rose to 1.5m. Then they tanked all the way down to 900k, where they went back up to 1.2m. The average price does not change, just the timing of the rises and falls is affected by merchanting.

 

 

 

Short term merchanting is generally: 1) A little under mid and a little over mid for stable items; 2) A little over min and a little under mid for falling items; 3) A little over mid and a little under max for rising items. In each of these cases, the item is still transferred for the average price. However, if a lot of people buy at min and sell just under mid the fall will be slower than people buying and selling at min.

 

 

 

Investing is simply "riding the wave." It makes the ups and downs slightly more dramatic, but the average stays the same.

 

 

 

I understand that well. But I do fault A C I D Y's clan chat for the majority of the price effects after the GE update. And that people can't sell their items while they're being dumped.

 

 

 

A C I D Y isnt focused enough to do any big buy outs its mostly "noobs" trying to make money and wanting it the easy way. A C I D Y dont even use the chat but uses other cc's instead and then goes to A C I D Y when they are about to dump their items and then tell them to buy out the items so that they can sell their items with ease.

 

 

 

conclution: A C I D Y can't do anything big to the economy the real enemy is the bigger clans(like the one that made 450m in 1 night with bandos)

 

A C I D Y is just a name, in the end the problem is still the same.

[mario_sunny]

How many times do I have to explain this! Seriously... would you read some topics on the general board? I actually think this is the 6th time I've had to reply to one of these price manipulation topics.

 

 

 

MOST of the items you now see shooting up in price are NOT a result of price manipulation, but RATHER the large amount of schoolkids recently dumping all their members items because they are returning to p2p. This causes a decline in price, then everyone starts buying them again because they are so cheap, then merchants see them shooting up, they buy a lot of them. It was not their original intension to manipulate bandos, for example.

 

 

 

The mods will never suceed at taking down price manipulation. It's like organised crime; it's organised, for one, and the law enforcement can never be 100% sure price manipulation is going on (or if it is just a result of merchant panic, a good example being one going on right now, which I just explained above). Without hard evidence, mods cannot ban suspected manipulators, because they could just claim they were buying the item at max price just because they wanted it. All mods can do is scare people, which is the sad truth, unless they want the reputation of banning innocent people (oh wait, they already have that :roll: ).

 

 

 

All GE limits are just terrible... and now I can almost garantee you jagex, being the [wagon] they are, will put even more limits on the GE severly restricting the average player and beating what's left of merchanting/investing into a bloody pulp. So typical of jagex just to put more limits on things, when they should be taking them away. And I'm almost positive they're going to come up with some long and winding story about how this "stops RWT."

 

 

 

You really, really, can't blame all the price changes on kids going to school. It would be a really, really big coincidence, that all these items are going up, right when acidy cc (and others) decide to buy them out. Okay, you said most, but still. You underestimate the power of rumors and and panicking.

 

It's a chain reaction. An item is low (for some reason, doesnt matter), a merchanting clan decides to buy it out. Word spreads. The item gets harder to buy. Normal people, or sole merchers detect this (they can't get it at max instantly). They jump on the train too. Tadamm.

 

Then the dumping. Of course, even when the dump is synchronized, not everyone can dump their items. That's why the big guys secretely dump early. All the noobs hoping for an easy merch, panic, and sell theirs quickly, for min, if max or med aint selling.

 

 

 

It's not a coinsidence... it happens every year at the end of the summer.

 

 

 

Obviously you do not know how acidy's chat works. They are NOT the ones who control the market, trust me. About 80% of the clan is scammers, the other 10% being new merchants just getting into investing getting scammed our of their lives by the scammers (because they are new), 5% are powerfully rich merchants (such as acidy) who may also be scammers too, and the final 5% is the small, but honest group of players who don't try to scam.

 

 

 

Dumps are never synchoronized. If you have been in acidy's chat and know how it works you'll know that they are NEVER acurate on their dump prices, it usually always gets dumped early (once again it's the scammers at work). Acidy's chat is neither organised nor trustworthy. You will find a huge lack of both, I promise you, if you just stay in it for 5 minutes. People are shouting out for others to buy random items they've screwed themselves over with and people are screaming out extremely inacurate dump prices. Anything else besides those two things is most likely just spam; "acidys a noob!" "@@@@@@@@@@@@@@" "Press 555 if you are buying pirates!"

 

 

 

Acidy's chat is not a good manipulation chat... if you are looking for the good ones good luck. They're hard to find and usually they only invite people with 500M+, so you can easily manipulate.

[bedman]

Trust me, I've visited acidy's cc enough to know how it works.

 

 

 

Anyway, you could be right it's not the acidy cc itself that controls it. Thing is, it IS controlled. Wether it's Acidy's cc, or another one, it doesnt matter. And yes, some items go down every year, at the end of vacation. But like Laura said, it's a pretty big coincidence P Pots suddenly jump up after I hear "buy out ppots" messages in Acidy.

[jettrider]

But like Laura said, it's a pretty big coincidence P Pots suddenly jump up after I hear "buy out ppots" messages in Acidy.

 

 

 

Common merch chats are easy ways to get more buying power on an already-bought out item, then ditch the new buyers on sell date. It's not organized, but it IS controlled.

[Carl]

Umm yeah, Jagex can't really stop us from making our money as they've already tried.

 

 

 

Putting MORE limits on the GE just messes things up even more...

 

 

 

Why don't people just realise that merchants own the markets, working as massive groups to profit.

 

 

 

You should try it some time, great profit to be made. Just stop complaining. There's new threads every day about what we already know each one is just a different "solution" to the problem.

 

 

 

Offtopic: You should just make one thread to cater for all people complaining.

[jirenma2001us]

It's not a coinsidence... it happens every year at the end of the summer.

 

 

 

Last summer GE didn't exist! It started November 26, 2007. Without GE, prices did fluctuate, but lots of the prices were age old staple prices (like 300 for a nature rune, 1k for a law rune).

 

 

 

So there can be no coincidence, we don't have GE data to reflect on since it's only been in operation for less than 10 months.

 

 

 

Umm yeah, Jagex can't really stop us from making our money as they've already tried.

 

 

 

Putting MORE limits on the GE just messes things up even more...

 

 

 

Why don't people just realise that merchants own the markets, working as massive groups to profit.

 

 

 

You should try it some time, great profit to be made. Just stop complaining. There's new threads every day about what we already know each one is just a different "solution" to the problem.

 

 

 

 

First and foremost

 

 

 

Because you can normally only bid 5% above or below the average price of an item, you'll find that there is little risk of an item's price plummeting or skyrocketing too rapidly. This makes it harder for players to manipulate prices and ensures that everyone gets a fair deal.

 

 

 

Prices are entirely set by players trading! There is no 'set value' that prices are based on, with the exception that a price will never rise above a shop's main stock price, or fall below the price a shop will pay for it. Note that shops will adjust their prices according to the Grand Exchange, so it is extraordinarily difficult to make a quick profit by buying from the shops and selling on the Grand Exchange and vice versa.

 

 

 

The prices items sell at are therefore not set by Jagex but by the players themselves! We are keen to keep a player-driven economy, so the prices are worked out using the supply and demand rules above. We will only intervene as a last resort, and only if we think price manipulation is going on, although the system has lots of safeguards to prevent that.

 

You can view the article here.

 

http://www.runescape.com/kbase/viewarti ... about_fmod

 

 

 

Apparently price manipulation is frowned upon by Jagex. They say themselves that if things go awry, action will be taken.

[Dire_Wolf]

Limit on the amount of Items you can have?

 

But that would be unfair, especially to collecters.....

 

 

 

I have seen that before, it's called "Trade limit". It ruined Staking, Pking (For now), and lots more.

[SuperS]

If jagex didn't limit the economy there would be no need for us to buy out items to make money. Now the only way to make decent money is by monster hunting. The economy died in january when the effects of no pking, no bots and no staking set in.