Price Manipulation

[Dire_Wolf]

I am no merchanter or manipulator. So if have some info/facts which is not right, then please correct me.

 

 

 

This is something that i dislike. I have been tempted to do it, but the closest thing i have gotten to it is talking to a friend who does it. She earned over 200M when merchanting was very profitable.

 

 

 

First of all:

 

 

 

MERCHANTERS

 

Players who predict a item rising in price and acting in good time to earn on it. How i believe it works:

 

1) Check forums for "Need" of a item

 

2) Check GE Graphs

 

3) Other

 

4) I think it's best to stick to a item you know price history well.

 

 

 

So merchanters do some work for the cash they earn.

 

 

 

MANIPULATORS

 

Big group of players who got millions of cash who "Buy out" a item, and later put the item in GE at MAX price to make it rise in price. Often the leader of the clan chats trick other players.

 

 

 

INVESTING

 

Take a risk in buying a item at very low price, and hope that in a long term that it will be used as new game updates come or something like that.

 

 

 

Difference between Merchanters and Manipulators is simple: Manipulators ruin the fun for alot players. Here's a example, i love bunyip even with unicorn level i still use it.

 

 

 

For 1 week bunyip did not sell at max price, and i believe price manipulators was involved. I may be wrong but that's a example of how a price manipulator can affect the game.

 

 

 

Conclusion

 

Price manipulating clans are not to many i think. It needs alot wealth to earn on it. But if you do have that you can increase your gold pile with easy if your with a right group.

 

 

 

But what if price manipulation becomes something many starts to do...what will happened to Runescape? Answer: Many items will be not sold. Players will not get a item bought when they need it and it will take time to get it.

 

 

 

What if this happens...then what will Jagex do?

 

 

 

I believe if players earn more wealth that many might do Price manipulation and it will make game worse and it might compare to RWT Tradelimit.

[totalpwnage]

You are correct about bunyips getting manipulated (got to use a bunch of my green charms for profit \)

 

 

 

Price manipulation these days is mostly just like a select few people leading a group with some friends and choosing an item to merch then dumping the item before other people dump it and causing other people in the clan to lose money. There are some people that don't do that right now though.

 

 

 

Price manipulation is growing, though, it seems. I see more and more groups doing it everyday, and its making it so more and more items become unbuyable everyday. If it grows too much, Jagex is going to have to do something about it. Either that or people will just learn to make stuff themselves.

[Hobgoblinpie]

Bunyips got bought out 1-2 weeks ago, and they're being bought out again (I think they did anyway. Unless a single merchanter decided to buy out the entire market of bunyip pouches). So I decided to hop onto the bandwagon and buy 260 bunyip pouches. gonna sell when they reach 3k-3.5k.

[Earth_Poet]

If enough merchants clans pop up to have all items manipulated, eventually players will lose confidence on the true value of their items and cease to use G.E. for any normal transactions. This may trigger a massive selloff, creating a recession and a market crash. That's a long term effect. The short term effects are what you are feeling right now. Jagex will probably keep tradition and ignore a problem until a crisis ensues.

[RuneAge]

Very true, in the long-term effects, people may loose faith in the true value of there item's and panic sell everything.

[K112]

People who merchent in clans are SCUM.

 

End.

 

 

 

There are groups of people out there who hide certain Merch clans, follow the price of items, and try to buy the item out, they then sell them back gradually at highest like the next day or something, meaning they profit, but the merchenters lose money big time.

 

Its a smart idea, but you have to be quick and extremely clever.

 

 

 

(I'm not actually in a clan like this)

[Punitive_D]

Bunyips got bought out 1-2 weeks ago, and they're being bought out again (I think they did anyway. Unless a single merchanter decided to buy out the entire market of bunyip pouches). So I decided to hop onto the bandwagon and buy 260 bunyip pouches. gonna sell when they reach 3k-3.5k.

 

 

 

The vast majority of things cannot be effectively price manipulated in runescape (not in the long run, anyway). Price manipulation works for those items that cannot easily be produced in response to increased demand. (For you economists, the term is "inelasticity of supply.") For most things in runescape, if someone tries to drive up the price by buying it out, then people will be induced by the higher price to produce more of it, thus driving the price back down. That's why rares can be price manipulated. When the price is driven up, there's no way to produce more. The price just keeps going up. Somebody may be trying to manipulate bunyip pouches, but I think it's just as likely that people are stocking up in anticipation of major training this summer. Things like super set and bunyip pouches will be in great demand.

 

 

 

I don't blame the merchers for price manipulation -- I blame the ge. Jagex set up a system to control the market, but the market cannot be controlled. Any system can be gamed, and the merchers are doing what always will be done (particularly in a game) -- they're gaming the system. But don't blame merchers every time something gets bought out -- sometimes things are simply in high demand.

 

 

 

Remember, only things for which supply is relatively inelastic (e.g., rares, treasure trail items and uncommon drops) can be price manipulated in the long run. If I see that some fool is trying to price manipulate something that I can make any time I want, I'll produce all that I can of it and sell it to him all the way up the price climb. In fact, I'm gonna take a look at bunyip pouches right now -- might be time for some profit.

[K112]

Bunyips got bought out 1-2 weeks ago, and they're being bought out again (I think they did anyway. Unless a single merchanter decided to buy out the entire market of bunyip pouches). So I decided to hop onto the bandwagon and buy 260 bunyip pouches. gonna sell when they reach 3k-3.5k.

 

 

 

The vast majority of things cannot be effectively price manipulated in runescape (not in the long run, anyway). Price manipulation works for those items that cannot easily be produced in response to increased demand. (For you economists, the term is "inelasticity of supply.") For most things in runescape, if someone tries to drive up the price by buying it out, then people will be induced by the higher price to produce more of it, thus driving the price back down. That's why rares can be price manipulated. When the price is driven up, there's no way to produce more. The price just keeps going up. Somebody may be trying to manipulate bunyip pouches, but I think it's just as likely that people are stocking up in anticipation of major training this summer. Things like super set and bunyip pouches will be in great demand.

 

 

 

I don't blame the merchers for price manipulation -- I blame the ge. Jagex set up a system to control the market, but the market cannot be controlled. Any system can be gamed, and the merchers are doing what always will be done (particularly in a game) -- they're gaming the system. But don't blame merchers every time something gets bought out -- sometimes things are simply in high demand.

 

 

 

Remember, only things for which supply is relatively inelastic (e.g., rares, treasure trail items and uncommon drops) can be price manipulated in the long run. If I see that some fool is trying to price manipulate something that I can make any time I want, I'll produce all that I can of it and sell it to him all the way up the price climb. In fact, I'm gonna take a look at bunyip pouches right now -- might be time for some profit.

 

 

 

 

 

A fairly good point, but it's largely wrong.

 

You have to remember that for a price ot stay steady, supply has to equal the demand:

 

Supply = Demand

 

 

 

If the supply increase and demand stays the same or decreases, then the price will go down.

 

And vice versa for increase.

 

 

 

I think your missing the vast scale of the money being input into the GE, and the outstanding offers on the pouches. This is why you can sell the pouches so easily. If you put in say, 1billion gp, you could probably buy out 99% of the bunyip pouches that there are in GE circulation, you can't due to quotas, but with numerous people backing you, it could become reality, this is why merchenting in clans is often more extreme than solo.

 

Apart from that, you are entirely correct.

 

 

 

 

 

__

 

The bunyip manipulation was also definetly done by clans, the fact that it is summer soon could be the reason that bunyips are being bought out though.

[Hobgoblinpie]

Bunyips got bought out 1-2 weeks ago, and they're being bought out again (I think they did anyway. Unless a single merchanter decided to buy out the entire market of bunyip pouches). So I decided to hop onto the bandwagon and buy 260 bunyip pouches. gonna sell when they reach 3k-3.5k.

 

 

 

The vast majority of things cannot be effectively price manipulated in runescape (not in the long run, anyway). Price manipulation works for those items that cannot easily be produced in response to increased demand. (For you economists, the term is "inelasticity of supply.") For most things in runescape, if someone tries to drive up the price by buying it out, then people will be induced by the higher price to produce more of it, thus driving the price back down. That's why rares can be price manipulated. When the price is driven up, there's no way to produce more. The price just keeps going up. Somebody may be trying to manipulate bunyip pouches, but I think it's just as likely that people are stocking up in anticipation of major training this summer. Things like super set and bunyip pouches will be in great demand.

 

 

 

I don't blame the merchers for price manipulation -- I blame the ge. Jagex set up a system to control the market, but the market cannot be controlled. Any system can be gamed, and the merchers are doing what always will be done (particularly in a game) -- they're gaming the system. But don't blame merchers every time something gets bought out -- sometimes things are simply in high demand.

 

 

 

Remember, only things for which supply is relatively inelastic (e.g., rares, treasure trail items and uncommon drops) can be price manipulated in the long run. If I see that some fool is trying to price manipulate something that I can make any time I want, I'll produce all that I can of it and sell it to him all the way up the price climb. In fact, I'm gonna take a look at bunyip pouches right now -- might be time for some profit.

 

 

 

 

 

I do realise that the proximity to summer would indicate the need to stock up on useful items, but the demand for bunyip pouches went up for a week (or two), then declined greatly (I was able to buy my pouches for lowest, a common indicator on more valuable items that have been dumped). Anyway, supplies, armour and weapons all increase at the start of Summer, and decline at the end, when people mass sell their items, so your theory may prove to be correct.

[Punitive_D]

I do realise that the proximity to summer would indicate the need to stock up on useful items, but the demand for bunyip pouches went up for a week (or two), then declined greatly (I was able to buy my pouches for lowest, a common indicator on more valuable items that have been dumped). Anyway, supplies, armour and weapons all increase at the start of Summer, and decline at the end, when people mass sell their items, so your theory may prove to be correct.

 

 

 

I looked at the graphs for bunyip pouches, and it does look like someone has been manipulating. But notice that they could keep it up only for a couple weeks. There are so many people like me sitting on thousands of green charms (and bloodveld are a ready supply anytime you need more), that any price [bleep]e has to be very short-lived. I'm watching it now, and if they go above 3k again, I'm dumping thousands of pouches into the market (and I'll buy them back cheaper later on). And I'll bet some of you are one step ahead of me -- calling all shark fishers.

[ReapMe]

I love the attitude of the people in those clans. They can't think for themselves so they have someone tell them what to buy and they buy whatever the cc owner dumps onto ge in a day or so.

[K112]

I love the attitude of the people in those clans. They can't think for themselves so they have someone tell them what to buy and they buy whatever the cc owner dumps onto ge in a day or so.

 

 

 

True, but at the same time it's somehow smarter. If 1 person buys an item, it will go up x gp, if 2 people buy it, your looking at 2x, if 100 people buy it, theoretically it could be 100x.

 

in reality it doesn't work like that, it stack up in a compund rate to indices to quite a few decimal places.

 

 

 

Please don't read the method if you have'nt got a head for maths. Your face will explode.

 

 

 

[hide=Maths geek.]Something like y*(number of days^7/6) = Ans1

 

Ans1^0.025 = Ans2

 

Ans2*1000 = Increase (Final answer)

 

 

 

So, bunyip pouch starting at 1k...

 

 

 

= 1000*5^7/6 = 6538.30243

 

^0.025 = 1.245623018

 

*1000= 1245.623018 increase;

 

 

 

Which means the price after 5 days should be ~2246gp/pouch

 

 

 

 

 

Sorry for being a maths geek. :-#

 

In fact, in reality it doesn't work like this, as there are millions of variables to factor in and the conditions are impossible in the circumstances of Ruenscape.[/hide]

 

 

 

Basicly: after 5 days, you can expect a doubling in price at the least if 100 people (with unlimited money) completely exhaust an item with 100% demand and 0% supply which cannot be re-sold.

 

In reality, you'd be VERY VERY VERY lucky to see this.

[Hobgoblinpie]

I love the attitude of the people in those clans. They can't think for themselves so they have someone tell them what to buy and they buy whatever the cc owner dumps onto ge in a day or so.

 

 

 

True, but at the same time it's somehow smarter. If 1 person buys an item, it will go up x gp, if 2 people buy it, your looking at 2x, if 100 people buy it, theoretically it could be 100x.

 

in reality it doesn't work like that, it stack up in a compund rate to indices to quite a few decimal places.

 

 

 

Please don't read the method if you have'nt got a head for maths. Your face will explode.

 

 

 

[hide=Maths geek.]Something like y*(number of days^7/6) = Ans1

 

Ans1^0.025 = Ans2

 

Ans2*1000 = Increase (Final answer)

 

 

 

So, bunyip pouch starting at 1k...

 

 

 

= 1000*5^7/6 = 6538.30243

 

^0.025 = 1.245623018

 

*1000= 1245.623018 increase;

 

 

 

Which means the price after 5 days should be ~2246gp/pouch

 

 

 

 

 

Sorry for being a maths geek. :-#

 

In fact, in reality it doesn't work like this, as there are millions of variables to factor in and the conditions are impossible in the circumstances of Ruenscape.[/hide]

 

 

 

Basicly: after 5 days, you can expect a doubling in price at the least if 100 people (with unlimited money) completely exhaust an item with 100% demand and 0% supply which cannot be re-sold.

 

In reality, you'd be VERY VERY VERY lucky to see this.

 

 

 

I demand exceeds supply, the item will raise a maximum of 5% per G.E update.

[strilmus]

Even though they can't hold onto an item forever, it does allow them to gain large amounts of capital, and use that to further their plans. This will either continue until they screw up, they get bored with making money at some point, or it gets to a bad situation where Jagex decides that they have to do something (too late as usual) and do something drastic (because they figure the ends justifies the means).

[noble_aloof]

speaking of manipulation, smoking mils is releasing new item in 2 minutes.. keep your ears peeled

[strilmus]

I'm just glad that they're done with the seeds. That was just cruel.

[duncdar2]

There's nothing wrong with merchanting, in fact, I'm merchanting uncut sapphires right now.

[strilmus]

Well, there is a big difference between investing your money in material goods as opposed to buying out the entire stock to drive prices up.

[The Dark Lord]

I'm just glad that they're done with the seeds. That was just cruel.

 

 

 

I have a friend that apparently was in on that. Anyway, attack potions and prayer potions are another example. Not long ago, prayer potions were being bought up and increased about 200-500GP/day. Now, it seems that it's being done to a lesser extent because after whoever manipulated them dumped the pots, the price went down to normal at about 8.9k at max. Prayer potions(4) are now at about 9.5-9.6k max, so I believe people are taking advantage of yet another item that many Scapers can't live without.

 

 

 

Jagex definitely needs to find a way to stop manipulation. Maybe if they could make "buying out" impossible by implementing a system similar to the general store. A player might be able to buy X amount of items a day before it dips into the player-made market and buys stuff from there. It would still allow players to sell items to other players and dampen the efforts of clans when they buy out an item because players can still buy a temporary amount of GE-generated items per day and reduce the dependency on other players to sell items for them to buy. I know this has some consequences, such as making items harder to sell, but it's a start.

[ReapMe]

I love the attitude of the people in those clans. They can't think for themselves so they have someone tell them what to buy and they buy whatever the cc owner dumps onto ge in a day or so.

 

 

 

True, but at the same time it's somehow smarter. If 1 person buys an item, it will go up x gp, if 2 people buy it, your looking at 2x, if 100 people buy it, theoretically it could be 100x.

 

in reality it doesn't work like that, it stack up in a compund rate to indices to quite a few decimal places.

 

 

 

Please don't read the method if you have'nt got a head for maths. Your face will explode.

 

 

 

[hide=Maths geek.]Something like y*(number of days^7/6) = Ans1

 

Ans1^0.025 = Ans2

 

Ans2*1000 = Increase (Final answer)

 

 

 

So, bunyip pouch starting at 1k...

 

 

 

= 1000*5^7/6 = 6538.30243

 

^0.025 = 1.245623018

 

*1000= 1245.623018 increase;

 

 

 

Which means the price after 5 days should be ~2246gp/pouch

 

 

 

 

 

Sorry for being a maths geek. :-#

 

In fact, in reality it doesn't work like this, as there are millions of variables to factor in and the conditions are impossible in the circumstances of Ruenscape.[/hide]

 

 

 

Basicly: after 5 days, you can expect a doubling in price at the least if 100 people (with unlimited money) completely exhaust an item with 100% demand and 0% supply which cannot be re-sold.

 

In reality, you'd be VERY VERY VERY lucky to see this.

 

 

 

I demand exceeds supply, the item will raise a maximum of 5% per G.E update.

 

 

 

it's fake demand and your math is wrong magicmanmax. it won't have a 100% increase in 5 days.

[Drakolord7]

I have no problem with merchanting, but manipulate should be a bannable offence.

[Blutters]

I have no problem with merchanting, but manipulate should be a bannable offence.

 

What's the difference? Simply the volume of people doing it to one item?

[Bladewing]

Before: Individuals or small groups could attempt to manipulate prices; if they succeeded, there would be easily accessible evidence of them breaking the rules, and they could be punished.

 

 

 

Now: Players can anonymously participate in group "buy-outs" of items. The temptation to do so is increased immensely by mob mentality.

 

 

 

So now we have more price manipulators than ever that are more difficult to nab than ever. But unless JaGEx removes limits on the Grand Exchange and/or player-to-player trading (or, heaven forbid, they "set" prices), this price manipulation will continue to occur.

[ReapMe]

Honestly, I couldn't careless about the way people make their money. If they want to be used and may/may not make money then let them. If I can't get a bunyip pouch then i'll just make some. If I can't buy veracs helm for max then oh well, i'll still live. If I was going for 99 farming and they bought out magics and yews then i'll just wait a couple of days after they dump it when it stablizes. Seriously it's not a big deal.

[Mischlings]

it's fake demand and your math is wrong magicmanmax. it won't have a 100% increase in 5 days.

 

 

 

It would take 15 days, to be precise (okay, it'd be a 108% increase, but it's close enough.)

 

 

 

Also, I really don't care what these people do. Occasionally I find myself buying items that seem to have been adversely affected by some sort of mechanting/manipulation, but it doesn't bother me all that much; I'm too apathetic about prices.

 

 

 

The system is there to be abused, and I don't care all that much if it is -- last I checked, I can still do the things I want to do in the game, so I'm not beating myself up over high prices.