Yesterday, many of you know, there was a semi-serious Party Hat crash. In the early morning, prices began skyrocketting (Yellows went from 45M to 52M overnight, Whites from 80M to 90M), which resulted in prices much above the Market Equilibrium. At around 12 PM ET, the prices on Party Hats began dropping significantly. Buyers were nowhere to be found, and on the rare occasion that you did find someone interested in a Phat, he was buying it with another Hat + cash. I was lucky enough to be in the market during this whole shift in demand, and managed to sell off my Hats quite early on.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As the day continued, the prices just kept continuing to decline. Players were fighting over sales, and GP seemed to be nearly extinct; the exact symptoms of a crash. By late night, players were selling Blues at 105M and lower (a serious difference from their 130M price that morning). It seemed as if the Phat craze had finally come to an end. I bought up one Blue Party Hat, seeing as they were so cheap, for 104M.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The next day, after a serious sleep in, I forced myself to my computer chair to check if the Phat crash had worsened. To my surprise, the prices had ALREADY began recovering. I frantically began buying up whatever Hats I could find, as the prices seemed to be bouncing back at an astounding rate. At the time I am writing this, Blues are selling 116M and upwards.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Well, this earlier blog may seem completely random and pointless, but it does have some underlying meaning. These past few months, Masks crashed in October (going from 18M a set to 14M; they haven't really changed since), and then Santas crashed in mid December (going from 5.5M to around 4M each). Most Rare prospectors took these drops as signs that the Rare economy was on the decline, and that Phats were next. However, yesterday's drop proves that Party Hats are not going to crash (for the time being), so this theory must not be true.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Maybe the economy is actually not as bad as many make it out to be. Small Rares completely over-rose in September; Mask Sets hit 20M when Purples were barely selling for 21-22M. In my opinion, (AND THIS IS STRICTLY MY OPINION, NOT TO BE DEPENDED ON) the entire Rare Market is completely healthy, and is not in for another recession (such as those in summer 2005 and January 2005). This Phat drop proves that the inflation in the market is real, and that Small Rares are going to be forced to catch up to Party Hats in the near-future. They are simply recovering from their massive increase in September.

excelent thoughts my paper hat packing freind.

excelent thoughts my paper hat packing freind.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

:lol:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Anyhow....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

" I want a paper Hat IRL!!!!!!"

 

 

 

We can't all be pretty.

Then i better buy some rares :D

We can't all be pretty.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

:lol:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nice read. What are the p hat prices atm?

 

We can't all be pretty.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

:lol:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nice read. What are the p hat prices atm?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices are changing quite often, but ATM i'd say:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Blue - 117M

 

 

 

White - 78.5M

 

 

 

Red - 62.5M

 

 

 

Green - 52-53M

 

 

 

Yellow - 45.5M

 

 

 

Purple - 42-43M

 

 

We can't all be pretty.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

:lol:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nice read. What are the p hat prices atm?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices are changing quite often, but ATM i'd say:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Blue - 117M

 

 

 

White - 78.5M

 

 

 

Red - 62.5M

 

 

 

Green - 52-53M

 

 

 

Yellow - 45.5M

 

 

 

Purple - 42-43M

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

do you have any predictions of what a santa may be price at around april?

I cant play 5 + hours a day which means i am always behind on the prices of party hats which means i cant make and money from them :?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But i do like reading your thoughts r2-pleasent you are very Insightful

Is the price difference between blue and white always that great or is that a bit of a problem?

You are really a wise person when it comes to analyzing the RS economy. By the way, do you think that the crash had anything to do with the Infinity robes? If so, what?

nice maybe one day i will wear a phat then have the feeling of wereing 45m+ on my head and saying wow what a waste in pixels and time. lol but anyway yea i would care if i liked rares alot more but i dont. You are the best merchent out there i think and i love your sig so keep it up ! :D

When I read the title I thought there was a p-hat drop party lol :oops:

Just forgot party hats. Why you still care about it? Real price is less than 5gp.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I prefer other items than party hats. I don't care if you might think I'm one of people who can't afford party hats but I know other items are better than paper party hats. :roll:

Just forgot party hats. Why you still care about it? Real price is less than 5gp.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I prefer other items than party hats. I don't care if you might think I'm one of people who can't afford party hats but I know other items are better than paper party hats. :roll:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That was an amazingly pointless post.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nice post r2. :)

 

 

 

I always look forward to reading your posts. :P

you are of course completely right. Again ;)

Great read r2

My first impression looking at it it seemed like a really nice post explaining what was going on bla bla bla.

 

 

 

but at the end you are encouraging ppl that party hats wont drop thereby encouraging them to buy thereby making the phat market rise.

 

 

 

Then i thought about the entire post again and actually it looks like an inflated story about a small crash in the phat market.

 

 

 

Maybe someday I should try making a story like these get r2 to post it for me and see if ppl reply with, "nice thinking" ... like most of them including me before today always do.

Just forgot party hats. Why you still care about it? Real price is less than 5gp.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I prefer other items than party hats. I don't care if you might think I'm one of people who can't afford party hats but I know other items are better than paper party hats. :roll:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

i would rather use the money for something else like pking -.- :lol:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

o ya and be careful cause you never know when jagex might do another dupping.

When I read the title I thought there was a p-hat drop party lol :oops:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You ain't the only one, so did i

 

excelent thoughts my paper hat packing freind.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

:lol:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Anyhow....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

" I want a paper Hat IRL!!!!!!"

 

 

 

 

 

 

:lol: ship me one and ill give u 3 gp

i noticed part of this, the big rise part in game too

I just noticed that santas began to rise from their 3.8m to 4m and even some people selling 4.5m in world1 varrok. Im not sure what happening to p2p market but ill definately buy a few santas just in case :shock:

I just noticed that santas began to rise from their 3.8m to 4m and even some people selling 4.5m in world1 varrok. Im not sure what happening to p2p market but ill definately buy a few santas just in case :shock:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Investing in Rares is a good idea most of the time. Just take note that Small Rares can take awhile to rise, and many investors end up selling them off at around the same price they paid. If you really want your investment to pay off, be prepared to hold it for at least 2-3 months, preferably longer.

Hahah, I quit quite a few months ago with a blue and a white hat in my bank... and now I've pretty much tripled in networth :lol: