Party Hats - Future Prices

[majinkamahl]

Whoever thinks if rares don't exist, the price of raw materials will increase.

 

 

 

Those people are morons.

 

 

 

The people with the money to buy rares, instead of buying raw materials for say double or triple the amount, they will buy double or triple the quantity. No one wants to pay more for something they can get cheaper.

 

 

 

The idea of buying and selling should not be selling at a high price and making the most money, but to sell at a fair price, make a bit of a profit and have a happy customer.

 

 

 

Think of it this way;

 

CURRENTLY, Essence is stable around 20gp from what I have seen.

 

To afford full rune (200K), I would have to sell 10k ess. This is fair.

 

But if I buy ess at 12gp each, no one will sell, and if I re-sell at 30, no one will buy. And that is excluding the possibility that full rune won't be sold at 250k.

 

This is the reason, no f2p NON-MERCHANT/PKER/HACKER/SCAMMER will ever get blue phat.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EDIT: The economy is unfair to F2P and new players (member or otherwise). Unless you currently have say, 50 mil, your chances of getting a phat are near non-existant. Unless you merchant/pk/hack/scam/go to a elder players retirement drop party or meet someone extremely nice, you are never going to get a rare. The economy won't support something like that.

 

 

 

 

 

A while back everyone on the forum laughed at a noob who wanted to collect 1 million yews. It was impossible taking into account the amount of time needed to actually GET them. Then it occurred to me. RIGHT THIS VERY SECOND, you would need to sell 1 million yews to buy a blue phat, but by the time that poor noob got 1 mil yews (if ever) he would need like 1 billion.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The cycle is viscious and unending when it comes to rares. By the time you have enough raw materials to sell for a rare at the price they are now, when you have the materials, the price will be triple. I now deem that "MK's laws of rares market".

 

 

 

Viscious, unending cycle.

[Enipeus]

beacuse me and other merchants are holding onto most of the partyhats, so we basically control the price.

 

 

 

I myself just bought partyhat set for 1.35B, I can see myself paying that for a purple within a year and have no problem.

 

 

 

When partyhats reach the cap, no one knows what will happen; Jagex might raise cap or people will use smaller rares with cash.

[Adam007]

Yeah thats I'm trying to say. Something or someone has been jacking theses prices up lol. All it takes is one person to jack up the price the rest will follow. Its much easier with P hats because less people buy em.

 

 

 

THIS IS EXACTLY WHY THEY ARE GOING TO CRASH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

 

 

NO1 buys them for enjoyment anymore. People used to raise money just to afford a phat. Now its too much money to save up and people dont wanna waste time to do it. The dumb merchants have been buying and selling them back and forth to eachother for like a year now. Its gonna end soon enough. I dont care what that hilarious guy who thinks hes a god of merchanting says either. They crashed before they gonna crash again soon enough

 

Party hats have been through a lot. I fail to see why you think this time that this particular price raise is doomsday for them to crash. Sure they jump up, and fall a tiny bit back, in a 5 steps forward 1 step back kind of thing because the merchanters get a little excited and overshoot prices, but a real crash? Not going to happen.

 

Nobody buys them for enjoyment? Is that a problem? I find it hard to see how you can enjoy wearing a party hat as if it brings you pleasure or something. It looks nice, but enjoyment? It's a status shower and mainly it's great to have as an income maker.

 

These 'dumb merchants' have been buying party hats and selling them for a lot longer than one year now - you don't need to say that as if comparing it to rats running in mazes or something.

 

The only reason they would crash would be if jagex added something to majorly halt them (and judging my the massive money drain of construction not denting them that much, it would take a lot). So they're going to keep up their massive growth, people will continue complaining, and the world sees another day. :)

[buffrichie]

o they will crash sir.... they will crash :wall:

[Azurechaos]

I think that after they hit a rediculously high price

 

like 2b, they will crash back to 400m or so, and

 

repeat the raise-crash cycle.

 

 

 

I seriously think party hats are getting worthless

 

because they're worth so much. I mean, what else

 

is there to do once you can buy Jagex out with an

 

item in their own game? :roll:

[Duke_Freedom]

I think that after they hit a rediculously high price

 

like 2b, they will crash back to 400m or so, and

 

repeat the raise-crash cycle.

 

 

 

Eventually, on the long-term, they can only go up. There is no limit; the sky is the limit. ;)

 

 

 

I seriously think party hats are getting worthless because they're worth so much.

 

 

 

:lol:

[novr]

i have just come back from a break with 1 of each colour party hat and have discovered im in the money :o its amazing i got mine given for free about 3 years ago or something its amazing :D

[Slurpy17]

ahhh i remember when i had my last account, they were only like 10-25 millions, i wish jagex would change all Phats,santas,halloweenmasks into their cash value it is TODAY! and then have new events dropping these and these would be non tradeable... this way everyone has a chance getting one, and noone needs to think that dam, i just lost half billion cash :roll:

[Lacarnaya]

Defanitely no way that Blue Phat could be 3b. The maximum amount of money in runescape is just over 2b...

[tru_vampire0]

So you're saying that p-hats rise 50m every week? sorry dude. No.

 

i think he's saying that Blue Phats are raising at 50m per week, not all of them........ but still isn't true

[p0nd3r4]

Hah, I laugh at Party Hat owners. Almost all the people who buy party hats are party hat merchants... the profits come from people trying to buy into it for a great investment (I assume) but to be honest, there's going to come a point where nobody but the merchants can afford them, and they can't make profit off each other since that's their only source of income. Then the prices will stabilise or drop in my opinion, they'll probably all freak out, drop the prices and try to flog them all.

 

 

 

Either way, this can't last for much longer.

[gamblingfool]

Hah, I laugh at Party Hat owners. Almost all the people who buy party hats are party hat merchants... the profits come from people trying to buy into it for a great investment (I assume) but to be honest, there's going to come a point where nobody but the merchants can afford them, and they can't make profit off each other since that's their only source of income. Then the prices will stabilise or drop in my opinion, they'll probably all freak out, drop the prices and try to flog them all.

 

 

 

Either way, this can't last for much longer.

 

 

 

Yea, maybe if one merchant stopped buying them, there might be some kind of domino effect and just crash party hats (UNLIKELY?!?!?) But I don't think they'll drop tons if anything like that would happen, some merchanters who couldn't afford it before now can, so then there would be more merchanters buying again, raising the price again. But I don't know what could happen, I'm not really good with predicting things. :oops:

[insane]

Hah, I laugh at Party Hat owners. Almost all the people who buy party hats are party hat merchants... the profits come from people trying to buy into it for a great investment (I assume) but to be honest, there's going to come a point where nobody but the merchants can afford them, and they can't make profit off each other since that's their only source of income. Then the prices will stabilise or drop in my opinion, they'll probably all freak out, drop the prices and try to flog them all.

 

 

 

Either way, this can't last for much longer.

 

 

 

Yea, maybe if one merchant stopped buying them, there might be some kind of domino effect and just crash party hats (UNLIKELY?!?!?) But I don't think they'll drop tons if anything like that would happen, some merchanters who couldn't afford it before now can, so then there would be more merchanters buying again, raising the price again. But I don't know what could happen, I'm not really good with predicting things. :oops:

 

 

 

They wouldn't drop... they'd probably enter into a repeating cycle of small ups and downs, surrounded around a central, never-changing value.

[gamblingfool]

Hah, I laugh at Party Hat owners. Almost all the people who buy party hats are party hat merchants... the profits come from people trying to buy into it for a great investment (I assume) but to be honest, there's going to come a point where nobody but the merchants can afford them, and they can't make profit off each other since that's their only source of income. Then the prices will stabilise or drop in my opinion, they'll probably all freak out, drop the prices and try to flog them all.

 

 

 

Either way, this can't last for much longer.

 

 

 

Yea, maybe if one merchant stopped buying them, there might be some kind of domino effect and just crash party hats (UNLIKELY?!?!?) But I don't think they'll drop tons if anything like that would happen, some merchanters who couldn't afford it before now can, so then there would be more merchanters buying again, raising the price again. But I don't know what could happen, I'm not really good with predicting things. :oops:

 

 

 

They wouldn't drop... they'd probably enter into a repeating cycle of small ups and downs, surrounded around a central, never-changing value.

 

 

 

Well that's why there's an (UNLIKELY) after the crashing comment. The rest mostly agrees with what you said, more buyers would be able to come in, raise it, no more buyers, drops, more people can afford one, raises, ect.

[deuteronomy_af]

Party Hats, will, and I repeat, WILL reach past 2b. Pretty soon, people will realize that that is just too high, and prices MIGHT lower. But 2b will be in a while, probably around 1 year. For now, the price of the Blue PHat is around 500m (which is still a complete waste). Maybe Jagex will add Phat Dropspawns to the World, like Level 666 Wildy or something, I don't know, but this is how it's going to be. What I don't understand is why Jagex doesn't just do something about it. They keep on doing things to stop it (release of untradeable holiday items) but in the end, it's not helping. They should just spend around like 1 hour making all the old holiday items (like Easter Eggs, H'ween masks, phats, etc.) untradeable. Sure there's gonna be a humoungous crash, but they're be a bigger one whenever they DONT do anything to stop it, and they reach the price cap.

[E_D_G_E_1039]

Let's just say.... I was online at the time when they where dropped... At that time you could buy it for 1k.... now it's worth a hell of a lot more, although they where duped ....

 

Didn't happen to hold on to any, did you? :P

 

 

 

No one did.. One of runescape's many "coincidences" =D>

[Adam007]

Party Hats, will, and I repeat, WILL reach past 2b. Pretty soon, people will realize that that is just too high, and prices MIGHT lower. But 2b will be in a while, probably around 1 year. For now, the price of the Blue PHat is around 500m (which is still a complete waste). Maybe Jagex will add Phat Dropspawns to the World, like Level 666 Wildy or something, I don't know, but this is how it's going to be. What I don't understand is why Jagex doesn't just do something about it. They keep on doing things to stop it (release of untradeable holiday items) but in the end, it's not helping. They should just spend around like 1 hour making all the old holiday items (like Easter Eggs, H'ween masks, phats, etc.) untradeable. Sure there's gonna be a humoungous crash, but they're be a bigger one whenever they DONT do anything to stop it, and they reach the price cap.

 

So what if they reach the price cap? I'm still perplexed that people see increased prices as a problem - when that's not the case. Your comment on blue phats being at 500million as being a waste - I have no idea how you can say that, since by owning a blue phat you're making millions a day by doing nothing - care to explain how that's in any way useless?

 

Oh, and by the way, blue party hats should hit 2bil by January if current growth rates since rs2 came out continue.

[MetalGod]

I predict JageX is gonna make all the rares untradeable soon and most of us will be very annoyed.

[themaster3k]

I find party hats to be one of the most interesting things happening in the game. As a former economics student, this is a premium example of supply and demand. If there is any good comparison to the real world, rares are like stocks. They fluctuate based on factors going on in the economy. If the economy is good, they go up and vice versa. For example take Google stock. When it came out at about $90 per share in '04 and now trades at $419.33 (6/30). If you bought in early you made a killing, JUST LIKE PARTY HATS AND OTHER RARES. The reason Runescape is so interesting to me is because of a dynamic economy where investments pay off. Prices will reflect demand, and since the supply is constant, or even decreasing, price can only increase. Its just natural in a Laissez Faire economy. Jagex must keep the economy as such, I think they try to interfere too much already by introducing cash drains and making new drops untradeable.

[MetalGod]

I find party hats to be one of the most interesting things happening in the game. As a former economics student, this is a premium example of supply and demand. If there is any good comparison to the real world, rares are like stocks. They fluctuate based on factors going on in the economy. If the economy is good, they go up and vice versa. For example take Google stock. When it came out at about $90 per share in '04 and now trades at $419.33 (6/30). If you bought in early you made a killing, JUST LIKE PARTY HATS AND OTHER RARES. The reason Runescape is so interesting to me is because of a dynamic economy where investments pay off. Prices will reflect demand, and since the supply is constant, or even decreasing, price can only increase. Its just natural in a Laissez Faire economy. Jagex must keep the economy as such, I think they try to interfere too much already by introducing cash drains and making new drops untradeable.

 

 

 

ive also noticed all that, its operating like a more simplistic real country's economy.

[settler3]

Let's just say.... I was online at the time when they where dropped... At that time you could buy it for 1k.... now it's worth a hell of a lot more, although they where duped ....

 

Lol dude i played RuneScape on those days but guess what? i was offline that day!!!!!!!!! :wall: :wall: :wall: :wall:

 

and now im poor in rs just got over my first 1 million gp!!! :wall: :wall:

[Enrico1992]

Why doesn't Jagex do this: They go online 'incognito', with a normal account without 'mod' in it and without a crown. And they buy the Party Hats for high prices (lets say, about 25% more) Then they drop it where nobody is. The owners can't complain, they've got a lot of money for it, and the party hats are gone.

[gensolo]

okay ive never owned a party hat and im f2p but i still think the prices are going crazy over one holiday drop someone in jagex needs to do something about it and in order for that to happen someone needs to tell them.

[swampjedi]

What you simpletons don't seem to understand is that partyhat prices are high but that's keeping other prices stable. I think the price fluctuations during the early stages of construction prove this.

 

 

 

Waah, you can't have one, so you want no one to have one. Get over yourselves. How the crap does it affect you, people? If anything, it helps you (see above).

 

 

 

I have a yellow that I worked for. Yes, worked. See my skills? I didn't buy them, I did it myself. I earned the ~80m that I have in my yellow for myself. I didn't merchant; the hatred of which seems to go hand in hand with the hatred of rares.

 

 

 

Imagine that Jagex made all rares untradable. So, in my case, I'd be losing about 175 million net worth. Imagine this - at the same time, they take 175 million away from everyone. So you lose everything. How would you like that? You wouldn't - it would be like logging on to see your bank totally empty. So before you demand in your shrill rat voices that rares be removed, think about what it would be like to own one and have it taken from you.

[biggy08755]

Why doesn't Jagex do this: They go online 'incognito', with a normal account without 'mod' in it and without a crown. And they buy the Party Hats for high prices (lets say, about 25% more) Then they drop it where nobody is. The owners can't complain, they've got a lot of money for it, and the party hats are gone.

 

 

 

That would only drive the phat prices up atons more.

 

 

 

What about the people who want to keep them? Or the people who quit and now came back