Maybe it's not just luck! Maybe...

[Sly_Wizard]

Bear with me here, as this might be a little far-fetched. For those of you who have done "Lunar Diplomacy", you might know what I'm talking about.

 

 

 

Once you reach the ethereal plain, you are asked to "Roll" five or six (I forgot the exact number) die so that the face up sides equal a certain number (Sorta' like a Runescape version of craps). At first, your character says something it being unfair to rely solely on luck but after you complete the task your character realizes that most of what (s)he thinks is luck, actually isn't but rather that there is a systematic and logical reason for most (I said most, not all) things.

 

 

 

Since I believe that the whole point of the ethereal plain was to teach you "Life-lessons" as they relate to Runescape, I started to think about the whole lesson on luck and how they relate to drops.

 

 

 

If you've ever tried to query Jagex about drop rates, you've more than likely been told that they can't give out drop rates on any item (At least they do for me), therefore we're left to guess what the drop rate of a "Rare" item (Such as a dragon chain from a dust devil of a whip from an abby demon) from any given NPC must be.

 

 

 

The problem with this, however, is that there are people who completely demolish any type of assumed drop rate in both a positive and negative sense. We've all seem the people who seem to have the Runescape god's favor; They're the people who seem to get barrows items at will, dragon drops whenever they please and just about any other items which would make them obscenely rich. And then, on the other side, you have those people who jump for joy whenever they see a rune med on the ground.

 

 

 

Sure, we could chalk it up to good ol' luck and probability, but then again I've never seen someone have such bad-- Or even good-- Luck as in Runescape. Good lucky in Runescape is about the equivilent of winning the lottery 1/100 times you play it in real life. Bad lucky in Runescape is the real life equivilent to being hit by a car, struck by lighting and being abducted by aliens all at the same time.

 

 

 

I've played my fair share of MMORPG's and the disparity between drops usually isn't as bad as Runescape.

 

 

 

All right. So now that I've gotten that out of the way, on to what I orginally wanted to say. Perhaps Jagex was trying to tell us that there's more to luck than how many times we kill a given NPC and if we're wearing a ring of wealth or not (I believe that the ring of wealth only increases your chances of getting a rare drop if you were going to get one in the first place).

 

 

 

Therefore, I came to these three conclusions about luck in Runescape:

 

 

 

1.) NPC's in the wilderness drop better than their non-wilderness counterparts (i.e., lesser demons, fire giants, greater demons, black demons and black dragons). I'm not saying that they drop different items, but I think that the probability of getting a dragon med from a fire giant is increased when you kill them in the wilderness versus killing them elsewhere.

 

 

 

2.) Some servers are naturally "Luckier" than others. ...How's that possible? I really couldn't tell you, but some servers are just cursed.

 

 

 

3.) Drops aren't based on how many of a certain NPC you kill, but rather when you do your killing. If drops were programmed to occur at a certain probability, they would be more equally distributed among the Runescape populace than they are now. But because they're not, I've come to the conclusion that it's the time of day that matters; They are programmed to happen at certain intervals.

 

 

 

I know what you're all thinking... That I'm crazy. Well, I very well may be, but it's just something to mull over the next time you're trying for that rare drop ;)

[Aquashock]

Its not crazy, i noticed the exact same thing when doing that quest. glad to see i wasnt the only one.

[bigfatleaf]

Heh, I used to think the time of day and the world effects the drops, and I still sorta do. I'd be killing good dropping monsters (fire giants, black demons, etc) for hours getting nothing but junk, then I'd switch worlds and I'd start getting much better drops within a few kills. Another oddity is how I often get a rare drop on my first kill of the day, for example, I went to the kbd and first drop was a med, the next day, the first drop is kbd heads, or right when I switch worlds at abbys, the first abby killed on that world drops a whip, which has happened multiple times. Might just all be coincidence...

[FuBai]

:shock: There is something eiree about how 4 people at the same time all got drops from the barrows chest, when i was there. But, what about the people that have been killing something for hours and watch as some other player comes in, kills about 5 and gets d legs (RE: me at bronze dragons) Then you keep on killing and no drop...

[Rebdragon]

Heh, I used to think the time of day and the world effects the drops, and I still sorta do. I'd be killing good dropping monsters (fire giants, black demons, etc) for hours getting nothing but junk, then I'd switch worlds and I'd start getting much better drops within a few kills. Another oddity is how I often get a rare drop on my first kill of the day, for example, I went to the kbd and first drop was a med, the next day, the first drop is kbd heads, or right when I switch worlds at abbys, the first abby killed on that world drops a whip, which has happened multiple times. Might just all be coincidence...

 

Ugh, I'm done supplying counterarguments to these ridiculous beliefs based on the smallest of sample sizes for such tests, so you can have your fun and keep believing this bull -.- .

 

 

 

All hail the mighty orange.

 

 

 

Fubai, yo custodes custodiam. :P

[nomader]

Ugh, I'm done supplying counterarguments to these ridiculous beliefs based on the smallest of sample sizes for such tests, so you can have your fun and keep believing this bull -.- .

 

 

 

All hail the mighty orange.

 

 

 

reb, just because someones idea is far fetched does not mean you can rant about it, if you dont agree, than best not to post at all

[Rebdragon]

reb, just because someones idea is far fetched does not mean you can rant about it, if you dont agree, than best not to post at all

 

I think that we all know that none of these theories or true. We just like having these little superstitions and placebo's to make getting lucky more fun :P . Therefore I repeat, all hail the mighty orange. It grants us a bountiful and unending supply of shiny blue rings.

 

 

 

Oh, and not to be annoying or start a flame war (let's not), but I hate that last comment. If we disagree about someone's belief, are we not permitted to speak? Or are we to just let that someone continue ranting about what we trully believe to be untrue, as if they have control over us, making it so that only their truth is the only known truth?

[Artemis_42]

It may be possible that there may be some other factor in rare drops, however I doubt it would be something like time and place. I can't seem to believe just how some people get all the rare drops while others just get nothing.

 

 

 

A bit off topic, but what is the whole bit about "the mighty orange" anyway?

[Rebdragon]

It may be possible that there may be some other factor in rare drops, however I doubt it would be something like time and place. I can't seem to believe just how some people get all the rare drops while others just get nothing.

 

 

 

A bit off topic, but what is the whole bit about "the mighty orange" anyway?

 

Who Le Ow's lucky orange has supplied him and all who go with him to the Dagganoth Kings with very many Zerker rings. What was it, 6 Zerker Rings and a few other items in the past few days that that orange has gotten us?

[Sly_Wizard]

Or are we to just let that someone continue ranting about what we trully believe to be untrue, as if they have control over us, making it so that only their truth is the only known truth?

 

 

 

You can't prove anything I said untrue ;)

 

 

 

The only one's who know the answer are Jagex themselves, but they ain't telling.

 

 

 

Everyone has different experiences and that usually influences their thinking. It doesn't mean that there's no truth behind it.

[Rebdragon]

You can't prove anything I said untrue ;)

 

 

 

The only one's who know the answer are Jagex themselves, but they ain't telling.

 

 

 

Everyone has different experiences and that usually influences their thinking. It doesn't mean that there's no truth behind it.

 

I said I believe it's untrue, and anyways, do you even have any proof that any of that stuff could possibly true? :-w

 

 

 

Superstitions and placebo's 8-) .

 

 

 

Well, I'm not exactly a computer wiz or great mathamatician (still in HS :P ) but I'm sure someone's going to come in here with the math and prove you wrong :P .

 

 

 

Btw, what do you mean by "even distribution between the Runescape populous." If you're saying that everyone who kills "a certain number of something" should get a "certain number of said drop", then you're not even thinking about probability :P .

 

 

 

EDIT: It's so late that I'm ending up with every other post lol >_<

[bigfatleaf]

Ugh, I'm done supplying counterarguments to these ridiculous beliefs based on the smallest of sample sizes for such tests, so you can have your fun and keep believing this bull -.- .

 

 

 

All hail the mighty orange.

 

 

 

Fubai, yo custodes custodiam. :P

 

 

 

I don't believe in any "bull", I was simply responding to the topic creators theory on how things might affect the drops from monsters. It's not bull that alot of times monsters dropped rare items on the first kill, It's fact, weather it be from luck or some other factor.

[Clan_Chat_Op]

Here's the thing about "random" in a computer.

 

 

 

It's all based on time.

 

 

 

Techincally... its 100% predictable... however, in the code, normally the random number generator is based on milliseconds (perhaps less), thus your chance of getting a drop is changing constantly. In order for you to get a drop, you have to kill the monster at the exact time.

 

 

 

Then again, I don't know how jagex set up their probability wheel. It could be based on seconds. I do think that the probability wheel is based on number of players on the server in some part. If your on a server with 2000 people, you have a much higher chance of getting a rare drop than if you are on a server with 100 people.

[Mollerz]

This sounds like what a few of us did at the cyclopes once! We were killing, my friend had used over 3k tickets, I'd used about 800 and some other guy there had used too many he couldn't count. My friend got an iron, 2 kills later I got my steel and 7 kills later the other guy finally got his addy! Then some other guy comes in and gets from bronze - black in like 100 tokens! :wall:

 

 

 

Also, I don't think it's servers, I used 69 for a while and this guy level 51 with an addy hally came and got a dragon med off of black demons in 1 kill. I'd killed about 300 and not got one.

 

 

 

Another occasion is Tzhaar-Kets. I killed about 700-800 of them, 1 god damn shield! That's it, my friend got 3 capes, 2 shields and 1 maul in 150 kills! :x

 

 

 

Some guy who was killing the kets next to me got 2 capes within 4 kills. He even showed them to me while wearing another.

 

 

 

 

 

My luck is at about 10%! I swear it's my computer! I lagg out on a black demons assignment with my d legs, obby cape, d hally, rune plate and all that stuff when I though it was expensive. And my cannon, which I was setting up when I lost connect. So I got 1 piece down and kept the other 3 pieces! #-o Died at barrows because I lagged while on ancients, It was Dharok at the chest, I had prayer on, because I knew I wasn't experienced. Prayer ran out, I got connection back just in time to see Dharok hit me 23, 52. KO PLEASE. I had full ahrims, whip, rune plate and legs, p pots and sharks. Ugh...

 

 

 

Dragon Drops - 0

 

Barrows Drops - 5 (Not one over 1m) In 70 trips

 

Rune drops - About 5 (3 rune meds, rune scimmy and rune large)

 

 

 

WHY IS MY LUCK SO BAD!

[Sly_Wizard]

I said I believe it's untrue, and anyways, do you even have any proof that any of that stuff could possibly true? :-w

 

 

 

Superstitions and placebo's 8-) .

 

 

 

Well, I'm not exactly a computer wiz or great mathamatician (still in HS :P ) but I'm sure someone's going to come in here with the math and prove you wrong :P .

 

 

 

Btw, what do you mean by "even distribution between the Runescape populous." If you're saying that everyone who kills "a certain number of something" should get a "certain number of said drop", then you're not even thinking about probability :P .

 

 

 

EDIT: It's so late that I'm ending up with every other post lol >_<

 

 

 

Let me clarify what I mean. If the drops were truly random, then everyone would have the same probability of getting, say, a dragon med from a fire giant. However, this is *NOT* the case, which would indicate that there are other factors which determine whether or not you get that "rare" drop. I fully well realize that probability is only stating the odds that a given item will drop, but when we start to deal with scenarios in which one player is receiving a large portion of rare drops while another person isn't then it'd be safe to assume that there is another factor influencing the items received.

 

 

 

It's like trying to roll a "6" on a pair of loaded dice where the number "1" is weighted. You still have a 1/6 chance of rolling a "6", but when you take into consideration the other factor, then the probability of rolling a "6" becomes less.

 

 

 

It is in my opinion (And I'm 98% sure of it) that the server you're on, where you killed an NPC and when you killed an NPC are determining factors in whether or not you get a rare drop. Can I prove any of what I said is true? Nope. The only one who could do that is Jagex. Of course, I can speculate.

[RAHK]

You can't prove anything I said untrue ;)

 

 

 

I just have to say that this defense is ridiculous. It works the opposite way in exactly the same manner so solves nothing.

 

 

 

 

 

One thing that you have to take into account in your lucky/unlucky group is that ONLY lucky and unlucky people speak of their luck. How many times have you seen a thread that says "Look at my completely average luck!"? I would bet never. Lucky people want to "brag" and unlucky people want to "whine" but average-lucked people can only... nothing? You can't base a hypothesis off a group that is so incredibly biased.

 

 

 

I think that everything you said is not true but if you had some way to poll 10k random people (and get HONEST answers) and used that "evidence" to back it up, I might consider it. No offfense, but all you have now is a flawed idea based off a biased group.

 

 

 

... now go get me those 10k peoples' drop rates! :lol: .... :(

 

 

 

P.S. This is not intended to be anything similiar to a flame, by the way.

[blacksimon]

The way the RS drop system works is that, wiuthin your first 30 mins in an area, you have a VERY good chance of a rare drop, then what id like to call 'drop silence' for around 2 hours, once you break this 2 hour barrier, you have a decent chance at a good drop.

 

 

 

ROW might work for some people. Some accounts are just plain luckier than others, on my lower lvl acct I get rare drops more often, rarer randoms, I even take less damage than someone with an equal def lvl.

 

 

 

Maybe it has to do with your username?

[Triquos]

or it is luck, and i'm just cursed with dragon drops XD

[Mazurizi]

The way the RS drop system works is that, wiuthin your first 30 mins in an area, you have a VERY good chance of a rare drop, then what id like to call 'drop silence' for around 2 hours, once you break this 2 hour barrier, you have a decent chance at a good drop.

 

 

 

ROW might work for some people. Some accounts are just plain luckier than others, on my lower lvl acct I get rare drops more often, rarer randoms, I even take less damage than someone with an equal def lvl.

 

 

 

Maybe it has to do with your username?

 

 

 

That is a very good theory. I myself am training to 90 Range at the Dust Devils. I'm never down here for longer than two hours which could spoil my chance of this secondary drop. Someone else was ranging Dust Devils (Crossfire39) and if I can remember correctly he only kept Diamonds. Anyone who has been to the Dust Devils know they drop a ton of gems below Diamonds. He got a Dragon Chain in one month of Ranging them I believe.

 

 

 

EDIT: I don't know if any of you believe this but exactly 20 Minutes After I made this post (Also Started Dust Devil Trip) I got a Rarish Drop of Red Dragonhide Vambraces. Maybe it's every 20 minutes or so?

[ikzelf100]

hurray i wil stick to that dusties for a 24 hour period that will include every time so i wil get all possible drosp inlcuding chain :D

[Ltje]

 

EDIT: I don't know if any of you believe this but exactly 20 Minutes After I made this post (Also Started Dust Devil Trip) I got a Rarish Drop of Red Dragonhide Vambraces. Maybe it's every 20 minutes or so?

 

 

 

I do know, that 20 minutes have a meaning. At least for me. When training combat in a dungeon, without rotating my screen, I could set my clock that every 20 minutes I got an random event.

 

Exactly every 20 minutes!

 

 

 

However, most of them were rubbish

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Also, that the first few drops are the best, seems pretty true also. I cannot state it for every time on every monster, but I know some cases that I really saw that the first few drops were pretty good.

[Mazurizi]

I do know, that 20 minutes have a meaning. At least for me. When training combat in a dungeon, without rotating my screen, I could set my clock that every 20 minutes I got an random event.

 

Exactly every 20 minutes!

 

 

 

However, most of them were rubbish

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Also, that the first few drops are the best, seems pretty true also. I cannot state it for every time on every monster, but I know some cases that I really saw that the first few drops were pretty good.

 

 

 

Later on in that trip I had two Dust Devils in a line waiting to attack me.

 

 

 

First one Falls. Red Vams.. Ooh Not Bad. Stayed in the safespot Killed the second... Key Half.. Wow! I couldn't believe it. I think the chances of that happening are fairly slim to be honest. I'd have prefered a Chain though :)

[Cool1]

You guys mean like rare drops could happen every 20mins (or any given time period) where you get lukier? like a random happens to everyone doing an action during the 1-2 mins randoms are supposed to pop in every 20 mins?

 

Interesting :-k

[Mazurizi]

Yes and No. I think the Rare Item every 20 minutes is entirely dependant on your luck.. I think it averages out at one rare ever 20 minutes though. As for random events read ltje's post more clearly.

 

 

 

At least for me. When training combat in a dungeon, without rotating my screen, I could set my clock that every 20 minutes I got an random event.

 

 

 

Without Rotating His screen.

 

 

 

I do think that the whole 20 minutes thing is something to do with the drops from monsters.

[Plod2]

The best drop i've ever had is a tinderbox, I am very unlucky!