Maybe it's not just luck! Maybe...

[chicodallasman]

I've been lucky that past week... Got a clue from Hellhounds in one kill, got another clue from Hellhounds on the last one I was gonna kill, then I got two mimes and a maze in one week (maze and one mime in same day), two scimmys from Fire Giants in like 40 kills, and a basilisk head in like 50 kills :? . All that in one week... I was never that lucky before, amybe it has somethign to do with time...

[Mazurizi]

I've been lucky that past week... Got a clue from Hellhounds in one kill, got another clue from Hellhounds on the last one I was gonna kill, then I got two mimes and a maze in one week (maze and one mime in same day), two scimmys from Fire Giants in like 40 kills, and a basilisk head in like 50 kills :? . All that in one week... I was never that lucky before, amybe it has somethign to do with time...

 

 

 

I've beaten that before. I've had 6 Rune Scimmies, 8 Rune Full Helms, Cut Dragonstone and 3 Key Halves.. Two Days. :P

[Ltje]

Yes and No. I think the Rare Item every 20 minutes is entirely dependant on your luck.. I think it averages out at one rare ever 20 minutes though. As for random events read ltje's post more clearly.

 

 

 

Without Rotating His screen.

 

 

 

I do think that the whole 20 minutes thing is something to do with the drops from monsters.

 

 

 

A small note is, that I dont know if screenrotating actually matters. However, long ago I read it anywhere, and I've learned myself not to do it. And because I now train on giant spiders lvl 50 who autoatt, I have no need for it now either.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Also, if I have trained for 10-20 minutes, without having a random in that time, and then I tele to varrock to bank, I always get that teleabbysrandomthingie.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But I dont know if this is really considered "luck", I'm quite much fed up with drunken dwarfs and that telething ;)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Anyway, about drops I dont really much know.

 

 

 

The only thing is, that when I was killing ankou's and ice warriors, the first drops where a bit better, in that drops were more laws and nats then on average.

 

But that are not that really good drops most people are looking for ;)

[Sly_Wizard]

I just have to say that this defense is ridiculous. It works the opposite way in exactly the same manner so solves nothing.

 

 

 

I know. That was my point.

 

 

 

I can't say that anything I said is true, just like someone can't say anything I've said is untrue. The only people who know the answer are Jagex so, up until they tell us how it works, then it's just plain and simply speculation.

[Mazurizi]

I know. That was my point.

 

 

 

I can't say that anything I said is true, just like someone can't say anything I've said is untrue. The only people who know the answer are Jagex so, up until they tell us how it works, then it's just plain and simply speculation.

 

 

 

Personally I can't see Jagex telling us how to get rare drops everytime. But they should release the formula or principles that they use to determine what drop you get.

[Stilev]

Bad lucky in Runescape is the real life equivilent to being hit by a car, struck by lighting and being abducted by aliens all at the same time.

 

 

 

thats happened to me before but i have yet to get a trimmed item, barrows drop, or a dragon drop

[Pionex40]

I personally feel Jagex has inserted a line of code into my account that basically makes it twice as hard for me to get any drop, twics as hard for me to hit any player in PVP and if someone else even looks at me I fall over dead.

 

 

 

I agree with your summation, its not all luck.

[warriorborn5]

 

Bad lucky in Runescape is the real life equivilent to being hit by a car, struck by lighting and abducted by aliens all at the same time.

 

 

 

:XD: SWEET

 

 

 

on topic: I think the whole probability thing is not by person but overall, and every kill by anyone counts towards it. That means that for every 10,000ish Dust Devils that are killed on any server by anyone one chain is dropped.

[RAHK]

I know. That was my point.

 

 

 

I can't say that anything I said is true, just like someone can't say anything I've said is untrue. The only people who know the answer are Jagex so, up until they tell us how it works, then it's just plain and simply speculation.

 

 

 

Replying to a single part of a post does not answer the post... *hint*hint*

[pompey_spud]

i agree with warrior. as clueless as jagex are, this does seem the most likely thing they would have done as it means they dont have to keep 'luck' tallies on every player, but instead only each server, which is easier to do and manage

[Sly_Wizard]

Replying to a single part of a post does not answer the post... *hint*hint*

 

 

 

There was no need for me to reply to the entire post, because I don't necessarily disagree with what you're saying. I never asserted that my claims were an absolute truth. That's why I called them theory.

 

 

 

Sure, everything could do with a bit of testing but until someone takes the time to do it (Or Jagex finally clues us in as to how the drop system works) a little bit of speculation never hurt anyone.

[iwatake]

If you average it out from everyones drops, it probably would show some sort of drop rate or that sort of thing. Or you might be right there... -.-

[slimysteve]

Ugh, I'm done supplying counterarguments to these ridiculous beliefs based on the smallest of sample sizes for such tests, so you can have your fun and keep believing this bull -.- .

 

 

 

All hail the mighty orange.

 

 

 

Fubai, yo custodes custodiam. :P

 

 

 

Who guards the guards? Is Yo a Latin word? Or do you mean quo?

 

 

 

We need to abduct someone from Jagex.. :

[Cool1]

1.) NPC's in the wilderness drop better than their non-wilderness counterparts (i.e., lesser demons, fire giants, greater demons, black demons and black dragons). I'm not saying that they drop different items, but I think that the probability of getting a dragon med from a fire giant is increased when you kill them in the wilderness versus killing them elsewhere.

Could this be true?

[Danyo]

ok, let me say this, i don't believe that the server/time/location has any concrete effect on drops. What I will say though, is that the is a distinct possibility of these affecting drops.

 

 

 

In order to understand how this might be true, you must first understand how random numbers are generated in a computer. The basic idea is that the computer, based on an existing algorithm, manipulates the specifics bytes that the output number will be. What this means is that the ending output is directly dependent on the starting input value for that particular space of memory.

 

 

 

So in the case of our drops mentioned, the input values of at the specific location of memory may indeed be affected by the time of day, because of the various player loads and most definitely is affected by different servers. As to whether or not the locale in the RS world has to do with anything, I would have to say no.

[Darkinvader]

You are always making posts for things that really..dont matter.

[evilrodyle]

As far as barrows goes...

 

 

 

I have gone over 100 Runs without a barrows item

 

 

 

I have also gotten 4 items in 10 runs...(that was a happy day...spear+ dh axe chest....dh helm later...then verac brassy : )

 

 

 

IMO you guys think to much about it. Barrows is a very good source of money, I know that for a fact. But sometimes it really just can't be. This is why killing things for a certain drop is never usually a good idea for money. We all saw that when troj lost all his cash to dks\kq. Now if you really wana maybe..idk..get a chain from kq. Buy veracs, buy over 8k sharks, Buy loads of super sets and antis. Make sure you get enough for well over 300 queens this way you are almost gaurunted to get a chain and not lose out(unless you quit early after 100 queens..) Killing queen for a chain can be very profitible when you know what your doing. If you only buy enough supplies for 50 queens...kill 50 and no chain reveils itself you just lost loads of money. However if you buy enough for 300 and one drops after around 150...congratz you just made out big time :wink:

 

 

 

You'll never know how drops are worked(im pretty sure jagex aint gona let you in on the secret) so its best not to even maybe think about how they might work.

 

 

 

(However if anyone wants to organize a team of about 6 men armed and bust into jagex hq maybe we can figure it out :-w :wink: )

[dudeguy409]

call me crazy but i think jagex divides players into groups when it comes to drop luck. i think they did this in pokemon, so i wouldn't be surprised if jagex did the same to runescape.

 

 

 

what i think they do is assign each character a letter, like a, b, c, and d. each group is lucky at getting items at a different time, and on certain worlds. also, at certain times of the day, you might be lucky at getting certain things as drops.

 

 

 

i could be wrong, i could be kinda right. but one way or another, i strongly beleive that luck in runescape is more based on a system. there are 2 reasons why i think they do this. for one, it might actually be easier to incorporate a complex system that a random drop generator program. the other reason is to possibly reward players who pick up on the system.

[Anti]

Interesting ideas. I don't agree with them, I believe some people just are darn lucky when it comes to drops, and I abide by how long I estimate it'll take me to get a drop.

 

 

 

Good theory none-the-less, I'm not discouraging it or supporting it, just to let you know it's firmly in the back of my head. :)

 

 

 

Bah, it'd take too much work if your method was real (on Jagex's part) to implement such a method.

[sjefderat]

I think that the randomness engine for Runescape is one of the best ever.

 

I got D med and a cut dragonstone from fire giants (waterfall) quick one after another in the same visit.

 

I another visit to fire giants I got 3 really rare drops within 5 giants (not spectacular, but really rare), i believe it was 300 steel arrows, a rune bar and 67 nature runes. Never had any of those 5 drops ever again in the 1000s of fire giants that I killed.

 

So my viewpoint is that if the randomness engine of runescape is in your favor, switch fast as lightning what you are killing and go KQ, of course I realise that that is impossible to do fast enough, but you getting my drift?

 

Rare drops tend to follow through, I saw that when thieving master farmers as well... come on snap, come on rannar, nothing for 1 hour and then up to 6 in a few minutes :-w .

[eloi44]

also at certain times jagex seems to make rare drops more common

 

 

 

i have a friend whose goten 5 dragon drops on december 23-26... coincience? i think not

 

 

 

EDIT:

 

 

 

oh yes, and i have a friend who got d med and then d sq half one right after the other at fire giants...

 

 

 

and chain from first kq

 

 

 

EDIT2:

 

 

 

hmm, what about the drop rate is exact, not a random thing - such as when X fire giants are killed all in 1 server or in all servers a rare drop is dropped? although my first edit would seem to refute that

 

 

 

but since high scores update when players log out, when an NPC dies it could update a kill counter, that way all of whatever monsters on all worlds could count toward teh drop counter, and that could factor into rare drops

[Freshwacka]

There's no such thing as random with a computer. The computer doesn't have the power to be spontaneous

[Matok]

Here's the thing about "random" in a computer.

 

It's all based on time.

 

 

 

Techincally... its 100% predictable... however, in the code, normally the random number generator is based on milliseconds (perhaps less), thus your chance of getting a drop is changing constantly. In order for you to get a drop, you have to kill the monster at the exact time.

 

 

 

Then again, I don't know how jagex set up their probability wheel. It could be based on seconds. I do think that the probability wheel is based on number of players on the server in some part. If your on a server with 2000 people, you have a much higher chance of getting a rare drop than if you are on a server with 100 people.

 

 

 

True, was about to post that but...

 

thu i am not sure about the second part (number of players)

 

u c, it can be just rand (time* player id)%monster_drop_table

 

who knows...

[thethinginthecorner]

guthix wrote in one of the god letters something about it being like a wheel of fortune and how ROW opened a second wheel.