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Statistically, How Good Are the Defense Skill and Bonuses

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**edit**

 

 

 

Due to interest, here's what you can do to help. Goto duel arena with a friend, have LOTS of food (chocalate cake is VERY easy thanks to thieving in Ardougne and Chocolate in the RFD food chest) in the bank to speed up the process. DO NOT HAVE ANYTHING EQUIPPED! One of you will be the attacker (with Kicking), the other is defender.

 

 

 

Attack the other for upwards of 1 hour. Count total number of hits and Red Splats. Food just keeps the combat going without having to start the combat over.

 

 

 

Post: Attackers ATK level, Defenders DEF level, Total number of attacks (MUST be 500+), Total number of red splats. Also post the attackers max damage when kicking.

 

 

 

Example: 40 Atk, 60 Def, 800 kicks, 320 red splats, 9 max damage.

 

 

 

Since you're there, trade sides and let the other guy be the attacker and report that if you wish.

 

 

 

**END EDIT**

 

 

 

Don't we all REALLY want to know this? How good does a 70 DEF stack up against a 70 ATK in a boxing match? What's the equivalent defense of a guy with 40 DEF and Full Rune armor?

 

 

 

So here's my question: Who would be interested in doing testing to truly determine the benefit of Def and Def bonuses against Atk and Atk bonuses?

 

 

 

Using the duel arena and lots of food, you could figure out alot.

 

 

 

First things first - Baseline

 

 

 

Using just kicks, determine chance of successfully attacking a person. Preferably use 500 to 1000 kicks.

 

 

 

10 Atk - 10 Def, 20 Atk - 20 Def ..... 70 Atk - 70 Def

 

 

 

This needs to be done to determine of Atk versus Def is even. You'd think it's 50% but has it ever been tested?

 

 

 

Against a 40 Def - 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60 and 70 Atk.

 

Using a 40 Atk - 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, and 70 Def.

 

 

 

This shows the statistic curve against varying levels.

 

 

 

With the baseline, you then can determine impact of Bonuses on combat chances.

 

 

 

Why bother? Well, don't you want to know if using a dragon mace versus a guy in platemail really is worth the hastle? In addition, with these numbers, you can determine the true defense of monsters. If you're hitting a Daggonoth Supreme 20% of the time with 81 atk and +102 atk bonus, you can use a chart to tell exactly what the Dagg Primes melee defense really is.

 

 

 

You'd think after 2 years, something like a To Hit Percentage Chart would have been developed. I'm sure others have tried, but why isn't it done yet?

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I would help but, I really don't have the time. ( I have school and the times I'm not at school imat hockey practice or staking.) But, this is a very interesting experiment, I'll be sure to watch your progress.

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this would be very useful in determining whether damage is everything (a lot ppl think it is, but in reality it isnt). Probably because the extensive crew required to carry out the test that it is a little impratical to perform the experiment.

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look at the barrows experiment, that has benn 'in progress' for the last... 3 months

 

 

 

 

 

and all everyone had to do was 50 trips each

 

 

 

 

 

<.<

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I've been thinking of doing something like this for a long time, I'd be glad to help do this.

Fire cape achieved on 2nd attempt on October 7, 2006 with 78 ranged, 78 hp, 77 defence, 55 prayer, 91 combat.

Off topic, but are you a mathimatician or computer scientist Nuke? I ask because this is'nt the first time I've seen you asking people to gather imperical data to base your calculations off of. Regardless you'd fit right in in alot of my engineering classes :D

Barrows Items: Karils Xbow x2, Coif

http://www.lost.eu/ce01

its really random how often you hit. So inturn, it would be hard to get accurate data.

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how do we know if it is random or not?? if we have never tested ill do this i got 77 attack but ill get 80 for this if you want it in even numbers i think this great experiment

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Well, The most easy way to find out would be ask jagex...

 

 

 

But, o wait!... Nvm...

 

 

 

Any other more easy ideas? :-k

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It'd be grat to find out but most ppl dont have time to make a lvl 1 attk 70 def pure :? Just be too hard to find the right kind of people.

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I'd prefer an agility one, how much faster does run energy get back when your agility lvl is higher?

 

lvl 50- 60- 70- 80 - 90

 

 

 

How big is the difference?

 

wouldn't be as hard as this one :roll:

Don't we all REALLY want to know this?

 

 

 

Probably everyone wants to know this, but it's a bit too difficult to conduct the experiment.

 

 

 

Would be interesting though, if someone does do it.

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The percentage of hitting someone with no armour compared to someone with for example rune armour is shows a significant difference, so making a formula for how much accuracy/evasiveness attack/defense really gives can be made, although this would take a lot of research.

 

 

 

It's basically done in the same way as the damage calculator, I believe. We have to have an equation, and then feed different numbers to it taken from tests.

 

 

 

This can be done, but the data will be very inaccurate, and to make it more accurate we'd need to do very long tests, such as letting a person hit another over 1000 or even 5000 times (the more, the better) and record the data.

 

 

 

But the question is, is it really that important to know? All pkers are usually already aware of what attack or defense stats to obtain, and other players just aim for 99 in everything. Some might think that it would just be interesting to check out the results, but the hard work behind it just doesn't make it worth it.

I could probably help out with 80 att, so just PM me if you want :)

It'd be grat to find out but most ppl dont have time to make a lvl 1 attk 70 def pure Confused Just be too hard to find the right kind of people.

 

You wouldn't need pures to do this experiment, just people with various lvls of attack paired up with people of varying defense levels. What I'd say would be the best method would be to have a people with lvl 1, 10, 20, 30...99 attack do trials against people of all the other levels of defense. So for example you have a lvl 1 atk char paired up with a lvl 1 def, a lvl 10 def and so on, then repeat with lvl 10 up to 99 attack. Since the chance of hitting should be equal between any two pairs of the same levels (ie. any 20atk vs any 20def stands the same chance of hitting) no one person will have to do an enormous number of trials. If enough people join each person would only have to do a few trials of say 250 attacks per trial to get decent data.

 

 

 

If this does take off and you want some help compiling the data I know a bit about statistics and some of my friends are hella crazy good at em.

Barrows Items: Karils Xbow x2, Coif

http://www.lost.eu/ce01

This sounds very useful. I always wondered if the extra defense provided by the best armor is really worth the price premium.

 

 

 

I'll sign up if you need these stats:

 

 

 

RS name - Veziv

 

Defense - 60

 

Attack - 64 (soon to be 65)

 

Online time - evenings Pacific time (about 4am - 9am GMT, if I calculated correctly)

 

 

 

PS While the exact formula might be hard to figure out, even a simple table of approximate hit rates for some attack and defense levels would be very helpful. And if we have trouble finding enough people and coordinating schedules, we could just ask everybody to fight a couple monster types and judge the impact of attack on hit rates against those monsters.

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Good idea, but why for 1 hour? You could do it for say 15 minutes each way, then times the results by 4 (except stats).

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ive won duels against people in full dharok when all i had on was my legends cape fury amulet berserker helm climbing boots and rune defender...

 

 

 

 

 

of course they were lower lvls then me, and yeah its risky to duel like that because you dont even have +100 def stats and they have 260+ and their max hit only doubles when they are lowered hitpoints.

Good idea, but why for 1 hour? You could do it for say 15 minutes each way, then times the results by 4 (except stats).

 

 

 

That would indeed shorten things up, BUT, that will make the data highly inaccurate. Remember that there is a luck term behind how often you hit, so if you only gather data for 15 minutes and times it by 4, you'll multiply the mistake factor by 4, thus making the data useless.

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