Day 4: The Future of Computing

June 10th, 2007 ÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Ãâ The Future of Computing.

Day 4

Well, after the last two threads, I think we need one a little more laid back and optimistic.

Moore's Law: The number of transistors that can be built into a microchip will double every eighteen months. Thus, the speed of computers will double about every 2 years. Therefore, we live in an age of exponential technological growth. Every two years our encyclopediaÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢s double in size, and computers get twice as advanced as they were before. This makes sense if you think about it, it took 40,000 years for humans to settle down into cities. 10,000 years later we had Rome. 1,500 years later we had electricity (1770). 150 years later and were in the nineteen twenties. Think about that, people often live a hundred years, and in essentially once person's lifetime we went from this the primitive colonial style of life to the pretty modern life of 1930, people then had automobiles, planes, and modern ships. Now just 50 years later we are in the 1980s. Nuclear subs, atomic power, F-16s, satellite TV, VHS, lasers, and men on the moon ÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ãâæ all in 50 years. Okay now just jump just 20 years. The Internet, fiber optics, plasma displays, digital cameras, and the iPod have all been invented. Now just jump 7 years to today. DonÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢t think much has changed since then? Computers from the year 2000 came with Pentium II processors (300mHz) had a 900MB hard drive, DVD drives were insanely expensive, CRT screens were the only real option, and people used floppies everywhere.

Think about, look at pictures from around 1999 and be amazed at how old everything looks. Pretty crazy knowing that by 2011 we will have made a technological jump just as far as 1999-2007. After that, following MooreÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢s law it will only take about 2 years to made another technological jump of that scale, then 1 year, then just a few months. MooreÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢s law is eventually supposed to break down but that wonÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢t happen until the mid-2020s, and even after that technology will still increase at a rate of speed faster than you can imagine.

For proof, I show you 5 things that everyone will own in less than ten years.

- An OLED computer monitor and TV

- An electric newspaper

- A cell phone with more power than the PS3

- Some form of Surface Computing

- Video games that are difficult to differ from reality

1.) OLED computer monitors

There are three things you need to know about OLED screens.

-To say they are thin is an understatement, it is hard to tell from this picture but the screens themselves can be 0.004 inches thick (0.1 mm)

- They are extremely efficient, and their resolution and quality of image is jaw dropping. Let it be noted that this is not a picture, it is a screen shot of a video that was shown.

These things will be the new standard for any type of video display once the technology gets perfected (so far the max screen size is 20 inches). Two companies, Sony and Phillips are in the process of perfecting these screens, and they are set to release them in 2008. In 2017 these screens will be everywhere from iPods to watches to clothing to newspapersÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ãâæ

2) Electronic Newspaper

Wait, did he just said TVs on clothing and newspaper? Lol, what a jokeÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ãâæ or is it? Another property of these screens is that they are flexible. Very flexible actually, they are as light and flexible as a piece of paper. Seen here is a OLED screen being bent past 90 degrees with no loss in imagine quality or damage to the screen. Remember that these screens are tremendously efficient and can thus run for days on a single flashlight battery. A newspaper of 2017 might look just like this, the product you see actually already excises. ItÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢s a laptop :D. The screen just rolls out and can be made rigid if you prefer, the processor and battery is in the tube on the left. The entire computer can be rolled up and put in your back pocket like a magazine. Expect electronic newspapers to become popular in about 8 years. They are actually coming out a lot earlier but I expect 5 to 6 years for them to catch on.

3) A cell phone with more power than the PS3

Ah yes, the symbol of technological growth, the cell phone. How far we have come in less than a decade. Ten years from now the cell phone will only really be limited by its battery. Unfortunately, while technology and physics prowess increases exponentially, chemists really canÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢t do anything to make a better battery. Lithium gives off the most charge per density out of all the earthÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢s elements, so itÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢s not like we can just invent a new way to store power. Regardless of that, cell phones will vastly improve. Experts predict that phones will soon replace credit cards and IDs, and become one central, electronic identification that can be read by stores and have payments automatically deducted from your account. Theft wonÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢t really be a problem since every phone will have integral GPS and be easily traced. (To ensure full theft protection, I predict people will have the option to have a GPS transmitter placed under their skin; the phone wonÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢t work if itÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢s not with the person who has the matching transmitter as the phone). Anyway GPS has limitless possibilities. Imagine walking into a cinema and sitting down. You then flip open your phone ÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ãâ¦Ã¢â¬ÅI wonder if I know anyone in hereÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬ÃâæÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬ÃâÃ

An interesting read, thanks.

I loved this post :P .

It truely is amazing how fast we are moving. One of the reasons why we are moving like this is because when we create better technology we can than use that to find out and work on making even better technology and so on and so forth.

It was hard to come up with the first car, computer, ect. because it was the first. Now that we have computers we can use them to work out problems with even stronger technology. When we get that better technology it will allow us to work and create better technology.

To be honest its a very exciting time to be living in. Over the course of our life time so much is going to happen, such as you said. Hell when I was a kid I was playing my NES -- now I'm playing games that I can hardly tell the difference from them and real life! :P

 

For proof, I show you 5 things that everyone will own in less than ten years.

 

- An OLED computer monitor and TV

 

- An electric newspaper

 

- A cell phone with more power than the PS3

 

- Some form of Surface Computing

 

- Video games that are difficult to differ from reality

 

Bill Gates, is that you?

Moore's Law has already peaked, we can't increase the clock frequency because the transistors melt and it's becoming more difficult to reduce the transistor size because the fabrication techniques don't allow it (eventually we wont be able to reduce the size since due to leaking currents). The only reason why Moore's law is keeping up at the moment is because we are adding more cores, but eventually that's going to end to.

There is a thermodynamic limit to the speeds we can produce, and it's definitely going to be reached in the next few decades. It's a matter of increasing the switching speed and dissipating the heat that is produced from the switching.

We already have electronic newspaper, it's called the Internet, it's the reason for the decline in current newspaper profits.

For those that are interested here is a quick calculation about switching limits (from my nano-physics notes):

:shock: Looks like a pretty crazy future.

Dear Allah o_O.

I find it amazing how fast we're progressing, truly amazing...

Now what we also need to do is make real life wars be played in games in the future. King George vs. Osama: Slayer-First to 25 Kills, Halo 2. :P

Awesome dude, great insight. I'll have to admit I'm a little bit impressied with the surface computing vid. Especially when he took the picture, put it on the table and just flicked it into his phone. Lol, cool.

What has intrigued me is how MMO's will play a role when virtualy reality becomes a, well, reality.

Think about it. A literal actual life away from your own life. A world where you can do anything without the reprocusions of dying. You can feel what you are doing, and for a lack of better words you are there.

Imagine having a tough time trying to realize which is real and which is fake. Getting so absorbed into your second life that your main, actual, life is nothing but a shell.

Part of it is a bit scary, really.

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=a1e_1180120325

Way too cool.

What has intrigued me is how MMO's will play a role when virtualy reality becomes a, well, reality.

 

 

 

Think about it. A literal actual life away from your own life. A world where you can do anything without the reprocusions of dying. You can feel what you are doing, and for a lack of better words you are there.

 

 

 

Imagine having a tough time trying to realize which is real and which is fake. Getting so absorbed into your second life that your main, actual, life is nothing but a shell.

 

 

 

Part of it is a bit scary, really.

Many have predicted this to be the downfall of society. Only sustainable by enslaving people from the 3rd world, but even that will fail since people will not have the urge to reproduce since in VR you can have sex whenever, with whoever, or whatever. :-s

What has intrigued me is how MMO's will play a role when virtualy reality becomes a, well, reality.

 

 

 

Think about it. A literal actual life away from your own life. A world where you can do anything without the reprocusions of dying. You can feel what you are doing, and for a lack of better words you are there.

 

 

 

Imagine having a tough time trying to realize which is real and which is fake. Getting so absorbed into your second life that your main, actual, life is nothing but a shell.

 

 

 

Part of it is a bit scary, really.

 

Many have predicted this to be the downfall of society. Only sustainable by enslaving people from the 3rd world, but even that will fail since people will not have the urge to reproduce since in VR you can have sex whenever, with whoever, or whatever. :-s

Yeah, I can see it now: Virtual Prostution, now "safe sex" is finally here! :P

This stuff seems very impressive, and I look forward to it.

Also, I think your have mistitled these threads, isn't it "Twenty Threads in Twenty Days"? :P Good job on all of these threads, each one has had a real effect on the way I think about things.

What has intrigued me is how MMO's will play a role when virtualy reality becomes a, well, reality.

 

 

 

Think about it. A literal actual life away from your own life. A world where you can do anything without the reprocusions of dying. You can feel what you are doing, and for a lack of better words you are there.

 

 

 

Imagine having a tough time trying to realize which is real and which is fake. Getting so absorbed into your second life that your main, actual, life is nothing but a shell.

 

 

 

Part of it is a bit scary, really.

 

Many have predicted this to be the downfall of society. Only sustainable by enslaving people from the 3rd world, but even that will fail since people will not have the urge to reproduce since in VR you can have sex whenever, with whoever, or whatever. :-s

Not only just not reproducing, but eating and sleeping too. There are already cases where peole die from lack of doing either because they are on a computer and with the population growth and such this will just be an increasing way for teens to die. Technology will be the end of us all :?

This is all truely shocking. I really did not open my mind to such things like this. I knew computers would become smaller in width..but flexible too? lol. I fell out of my chair on this one.

Now, lets get runescape into one of these.

:shock:

I can't wait!

Wow, it's amazing how far we've come in such a short period of time. To be honest, it scares me to think what our society might be like in 20-30 years. Great read, thanks a lot.

Amazing, I haven't really checked but what does the future of quantum computing look like? I've heard mixed reports, from 'it's impossible' to 'we're nearly at the breakthrough'.

What really fascinates me though is the day when we will be able to transfer our own consciousness into a virtual world and thereby in effect become immortal. I think it's probably a long, long way off though (if at all possible).

Man... the CryEngine is coming along brilliantly :ohnoes:

Another great read trapical, it truely is amzing how fast we are moving along...

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=a1e_1180120325

 

 

 

Way too cool.

Wow! That's insane. An easy portable tv, you could fold up into your pocket. Way cool indeed! :thumbsup:

Soo when do they take over?

Well actually...when they do takeover according to the matrix we won't actually know, so it could have already happened.

My favorite would have to be the OLED's. There was a Popular Science (I think that it was science) article on how they could possibly be put on shoes and you could just change the color/pattern of your shoe with a little remote. It looked pretty awesome. Great read.

What has intrigued me is how MMO's will play a role when virtualy reality becomes a, well, reality.

 

 

 

Think about it. A literal actual life away from your own life. A world where you can do anything without the reprocusions of dying. You can feel what you are doing, and for a lack of better words you are there.

 

 

 

Imagine having a tough time trying to realize which is real and which is fake. Getting so absorbed into your second life that your main, actual, life is nothing but a shell.

 

 

 

Part of it is a bit scary, really.

That played a huge part in one of the Pendragon books by DJ MacHale.

Awesome article, Trapical. This has been my favorite yet.

I suppose to extend to my earlier post, a discussion about AI might be relevant.

Depending who you believe, since reasoning has been argued to be non-algorithmic (the basis of modern computers) then we still might be a long away from true AI until we invent a new science of consciousness.

If I hadn't just gotten a cute little picture phone for Christmas, I would find some way to scrap up the money (and my parents approval) and go out and buy myself an IPhone. Those things amaze me.