Tip.It Times: Jan 4, 2009 (New Style!)

[ForsakenMage]

i don't like the new style :o

Please elaborate why you don't like it here: viewtopic.php?f=60&t=777807

 

 

 

We appreciate the commentary. Thanks.

[NukeMarine]

It's misunderstanding of chance that has caused very juvenile arguments. When it was revealed Dust Devils drop dragon chains, people moaned that such a low level creature could drop one of the more expensive drops. They could not wrap their head around that 1/10,000 chance. For them, it's the same as the chance of getting feathers from a chicken.

 

 

 

My problem with the article is it needs to point out both sides. Chance from the beginning of a series and chance at the end of a series. Say the chance of dragon leg drop from steel dragons is 1/200. If you know you're going to kill 1000 steel dragons, there's a 99.4% chance of getting at least one leg drop. If you killed 999 steel dragons without a leg drop, well, sorry, but that last kill is only 0.5% chance of a leg drop.

 

 

 

Another problem with misunderstanding chance, is since it's random, player's argue you can't know what's going to happen. They can't wrap their head around the idea you can go in with reasonable expectations of outcome. I know after killing 1000 steel dragons there'll be 5000 steel bars, 1000 dragon bones all but guarenteed. I should also see about 800 blood runes, 300 soul runes, 2 dragon plate legs, 30 runite bars, etc, etc. It won't be exact, but chance reveals itself over time.

 

 

 

That's the reason I know roughly how many yew logs I get an hour. The chance of getting a yew log is 1/6 per hit. So I can sometimes go a minute or more without getting logs, sometimes I get 10 or more in minute. However, over 3 hours that chance narrows down to the average of 3 logs per minute.

 

 

 

By the way, the "I'm due for a drop" is called the Gambler's Falacy in logic.

[Troacctid]

I liked all four articles. This format is much better than the old one.

 

 

 

The Curse of Probabilistic Knowledge:

 

I like this one because it actually serves to educate those ignorant of probability who don't understand the concepts in there. There are a lot of people who need to read about something like this.

 

 

 

The Joy of Quest:

 

I like that this is an opinion piece with a definite persuasive element...something you can debate. That's the best kind of editorial, imo. I also like that I agree with it.

 

 

 

Backseat History:

 

I definitely agree with the value of backstory. I'm a bit of a Runescape story enthusiast m'self. I bet most people don't know how to count in Tzhaar. (They use base 12, because they have four arms with three fingers each, see?) Or the story of the founding of Nardah. (You can go back to the dungeon from Spirits of Elid with the robes and the key and stuff and talk to the spirits again after the quest, and they'll tell you the story. Nobody ever goes back after the quest though.)

 

 

 

War Running:

 

Runescape fanfiction isn't so much my cup of tea. I'm guessing this one is to be continued next week? I suppose it has promise, but I don't think I'm the intended audience. Decent writing. *shrug*

 

 

 

By the way...

 

REALLY liked the articles and the new format for them sounds like a great idea always loved reading the articles now i get 4 for my reading pleasure?!?! \

 

 

 

o and btw...flying spaghetti monster + rain = flying noodle monster? :lol:

 

 

 

[hide=an artist's depiction][/hide]

 

 

 

black demon task + chaos tunnels = free time to draw stupid pictures ftw

 

[hide=More accurate depiction, by Michelangelo][/hide]

[J35u5_M4]

The Joy of Quest, an amazing article, enjoyed the reading!

[Maulmachine]

 

Err... What school did you go to? The current thesis regarding coin flips is that there is a natural bias for heads based on the way a human flips it and the way the coin is facing, the actual probability is .51 for heads ;) .This may,however, be a more recent discovery.

 

 

 

The "natural bias" is nonsense. The differential is based on starting side (do you flip with heads/tails up), weight of offset sides (is the "head" deco more or less heavy than tail imprint?), height of toss and element of cheating. This doesn't begin to account for left vs. right hand, different coins, and coin disclosure style (catch, catch and flip, allow to hit ground).

 

 

 

Too many variables, and 0.01 is a huge discrepancy from commonly held 0.50. If you're claiming that, show your sources, or go back to discussing topics at hand.

 

For one, the difference between heads and tails is just a human thing, we have built machines that can flip a coin the same way every time. Now, onto the variables... Assuming the same person is slipping the coin I think it's safe to assume they aren't alternating right from left.Height of toss does impact what side the coin will land on, however, not in a manner that is higher than when you start on heads and flip a coin.

 

 

 

And not that you'll understand all of this, but this is my source.

 

 

 

http://www-stat.stanford.edu/~susan/papers/headswithJ.pdf

[turbofreak12]

I have two things to say:

 

 

 

1.) I'd like to clarify my previous post, since people seem to misunderstand what I was trying to say. I simply pointed out that, even though each trial is independent, the more trials you have, the more likely it is for a desired outcome to occur. I said that the idea that drops are "overdue" or that the odds increase as you kill might have stemmed from a misinterpretation of this idea.

 

 

 

2.) The argument over this ".51% chance of heads" is irrelevant, and as interesting as it is that we find bizarre excuses to disprove obviously random events, there's no point to arguing over the chances of heads in a coin flip. Move on please.

[Inuashakent]

Pretty good articles. The last one was boring to me, so I just skimmed it... was pretty dissapointing.

 

 

 

And heads has a 51% chance? That's interesting...

[Sir_Squab]

I liked all four articles. This format is much better than the old one.

 

 

 

Backseat History:

 

I definitely agree with the value of backstory. I'm a bit of a Runescape story enthusiast m'self. I bet most people don't know how to count in Tzhaar. (They use base 12, because they have four arms with three fingers each, see?) Or the story of the founding of Nardah. (You can go back to the dungeon from Spirits of Elid with the robes and the key and stuff and talk to the spirits again after the quest, and they'll tell you the story. Nobody ever goes back after the quest though.)

 

 

 

 

 

 

I never knew that! I would've come back if I knew that...although you find out why nardah was founded during the quest. Assuming you explore all the speech options, something I always try to do.

 

 

 

...Your sure there's post-quest info there?

[rockwizard3]

In response to the featured topic:

 

 

 

I camped at dusties to get all my combat stats to 99 (killing about 45k of them) and you want to know what kept me going....i always told my self i could get a d chain from each and every kill.

 

 

 

(i got 4 d chains during that time =p)

[Troacctid]

I liked all four articles. This format is much better than the old one.

 

 

 

Backseat History:

 

I definitely agree with the value of backstory. I'm a bit of a Runescape story enthusiast m'self. I bet most people don't know how to count in Tzhaar. (They use base 12, because they have four arms with three fingers each, see?) Or the story of the founding of Nardah. (You can go back to the dungeon from Spirits of Elid with the robes and the key and stuff and talk to the spirits again after the quest, and they'll tell you the story. Nobody ever goes back after the quest though.)

 

 

 

 

 

 

I never knew that! I would've come back if I knew that...although you find out why nardah was founded during the quest. Assuming you explore all the speech options, something I always try to do.

 

 

 

...Your sure there's post-quest info there?

 

The short version is that Nardarine was a refugee from the God Wars who was lost in the desert, and she swore fealty to Elidinis to get a safe haven from the turbulence of the war. I don't remember them saying anything during the quest about it, but it has been awhile, so maybe I just forgot about it...

[stormveritas]

 

For one, the difference between heads and tails is just a human thing, we have built machines that can flip a coin the same way every time. Now, onto the variables... Assuming the same person is slipping the coin I think it's safe to assume they aren't alternating right from left.Height of toss does impact what side the coin will land on, however, not in a manner that is higher than when you start on heads and flip a coin.

 

 

 

And not that you'll understand all of this, but this is my source.

 

 

 

http://www-stat.stanford.edu/~susan/papers/headswithJ.pdf

 

 

 

The only extensive data we have found is [Kerrich, 1946]s heroic

 

collection of 10,000 coin flips. Kerrichs flips allowed the coin to bounce on the table so our

 

analysis doesnt apply. His data does seem random (p = 1/2) for all practical purposes. Our

 

estimate of the bias for flipped coins is p =? .51. To estimate p near 1/2 with standard error

 

1/1000 requires 1

 

2pn = 1/1000 or n

 

.=

 

250, 000 trials. While not beyond practical reach,

 

especially if a national coin-toss was arranged, this makes it less surprising that the present

 

research has not been empirically tested.

 

 

 

The authors admit here that previous work flipped 10,000 coins and came up with the 0.50 probability, and that they have not tested their "bias" nearly as much. They flipped less times and came up with a slight incongruence, and since they're from Stanford you considered it law.

 

 

 

Good try, though.

 

 

 

NukeMarine, I understand what you're saying, but my article tried to touch as much to the psychological process of coping with luck regarding each successful drop as it did discuss rolling or progressive probability.

 

 

 

I'm really opposed to having to document both sides of every argument. These articles are editorials, not documentary/educational papers, and a formed opinion is absolutely critical to generate dissention/discussion. Without the ability to show a unique perspective, these articles would be extremely boring.

[Badgers]

Amazing Articles, I love the new Tip.it Times now. I'll have lots to read \

 

 

 

 

 

The part about the Flying Spaghetti Monster made me lol :)

[magician_xy]

I agree with Necromagus about questing; I just made a new character just so that I can do the f2p quests again! It's not just the rewards (though they are great incentive) but the story behind it that drives me.

[Troacctid]

I'm really opposed to having to document both sides of every argument. These articles are editorials, not documentary/educational papers, and a formed opinion is absolutely critical to generate dissention/discussion. Without the ability to show a unique perspective, these articles would be extremely boring.

 

Agreed. The whole point of an editorial is to present an opinion.

[Maulmachine]

 

For one, the difference between heads and tails is just a human thing, we have built machines that can flip a coin the same way every time. Now, onto the variables... Assuming the same person is slipping the coin I think it's safe to assume they aren't alternating right from left.Height of toss does impact what side the coin will land on, however, not in a manner that is higher than when you start on heads and flip a coin.

 

 

 

And not that you'll understand all of this, but this is my source.

 

 

 

http://www-stat.stanford.edu/~susan/papers/headswithJ.pdf

 

 

 

The only extensive data we have found is [Kerrich, 1946]s heroic

 

collection of 10,000 coin flips. Kerrichs flips allowed the coin to bounce on the table so our

 

analysis doesnt apply. His data does seem random (p = 1/2) for all practical purposes. Our

 

estimate of the bias for flipped coins is p =? .51. To estimate p near 1/2 with standard error

 

1/1000 requires 1

 

2pn = 1/1000 or n

 

.=

 

250, 000 trials. While not beyond practical reach,

 

especially if a national coin-toss was arranged, this makes it less surprising that the present

 

research has not been empirically tested.

 

 

 

The authors admit here that previous work flipped 10,000 coins and came up with the 0.50 probability, and that they have not tested their "bias" nearly as much. They flipped less times and came up with a slight incongruence, and since they're from Stanford you considered it law.

 

 

 

Good try, though.

 

 

 

 

Excuse me? The data shows that there is a bias for heads, whether it be .51 or .5000001 there IS a bias. I suggest you read some other articles on the matter, all of which will agree with my statement that there is a bias for heads."Good try,though",you didn't really need to insult me :roll: just because you found one part of the article that suggests that there may be equal probability,try reading the whole thing next time.

[ladycai]

The first is by far the best. I won't join in the argument here, but I'll just quote these ...

 

 

 

 

 

[hide=The Curse of Probabilistic Knowledge 1]For someone whom has never taken statistics or understand the logic behind independent trials, a complex algorithm could follow, some brain-meltingly complex collection of numbers. For someone that does understand, this is a simple trick question: there is a fifty percent chance of tossing a head next. The rationale is simple; what has happened in previous tosses does NOT affect what will happen in this toss.[/hide]

 

 

 

[hide=The Curse of Probabilistic Knowledge 2]This is why every time you see a really nice person who rarely plays get that visage drop, you smile, outwardly wish them well, and secretly desire to ram a pen into your ear.[/hide]

 

 

 

[hide=The Curse of Probabilistic Knowledge 3]The final reward, one that is often overlooked and/or unappreciated and, admittedly, has only become a part of the questing experience in recent years: stories. For those who are willing to listen, JAGeX has a whole bunch of different stories to tell. In the east, people living under a tyrannical undead menace that is literally sucking them dry cry out for a saviour. In the west, the power struggles amongst an ancient race sent shockwaves throughout the kingdom of Kandarin and the city of Ardougne. In between lie many more stories that will reveal themselves to anyone willing and able to listen.[/hide]

[GODofbaseball]

i really loved the first article, it was really great and i think it expressed a great point, u shouldn't base your whole life in rs on probability, just have fun with it and maybe the best will come, P.S. if u ever come across a lvl 76 pure 99 ranger who gets a visage next 2 u, i devise you stab his fingers out with a pen so he cant pick it up :thumbsup: