n_odie Posted January 4, 2009 Share Posted January 4, 2009 As you will notice right off, the times are now under a new format! Make sure to check out the announcement found here: A New Times: Features & Writers (Discussion) When replying please make sure to clarify the article you are replying to! Thanks! >>>Featured Article: The Curse of Probabilistic Knowledge (stormveritas)<<< >>>Accompanying Article: The Joy of Quest (Necromagus)<<< >>>Historic Article: Backseat History (Psycho_Robot)<<< >>>Fictional Article: War Running (Zonorhc)<<< You can also get a nice glimpse of all the articles offered in a week here. Enjoy all the articles! ~Odie RIP MichaelangelopolousThanks to cowboy14 for the pimp sig! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pulli23 Posted January 4, 2009 Share Posted January 4, 2009 Wow 4 articles, sure makes a good read :). The thing I really hate with this (runescape) community is that people don't know what they're talking about: especially you find this when they start talking about chances and randoms. Most of the people are so dead wrong and they even believe themself it's hilarious and annoying at the same time! First they came to fishingand I didn't speak out because I wasn't fishing Then they came to the yewsand I didn't speak out because I didn't cut yews Then they came for the oresand I didn't speak out because I didn't collect ores Then they came for meand there was no one left to speak out for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qucke Posted January 4, 2009 Share Posted January 4, 2009 Wow, this was a very long times. I'd have to say that the second one, The Joy of Quest by Necromagus, was my favorite. Everything he says is very true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tribbleman Posted January 4, 2009 Share Posted January 4, 2009 Wow, one of the best articles I've read so far here :shock: The Curse of Probablistic Knowledge and The Joy of Quest were the best of them all :thumbup: PROUD Owner of Quest cape since 12/25/08 99 Attack Achieved 6/5/09Drops: Dragon Boots x5, Dragon Chainbody x1 (Dusties) Abyssal Whip x3, Abyssal Head x1Best single TT Reward: Saradomin Platebody + Zammy Page 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sy_Accursed Posted January 4, 2009 Share Posted January 4, 2009 A very nice tip.it times comapred to some of late. The ficitonal article was not my cup of tea but nicely done. The historical article raised a few good points and is a nice opener to that sort of article The article of quests was brilliant excuted and again laves things that could be expanded upon by further articles at a later date. What I did find utter dismay at is the "featured article" while it was well written and concisely thought out it didn't seem to say anything or progress anywhere, in fatc in the entire read I could condense the entire thing down to "Rs players often base their chance of drops on if i kill 1000 drags then i WILL get drop thts 1/1000 odds. This is not true as the chance on each kill is independant" It's a shame really as it started as apromising article but quickly descended into a mere spiral of repetition whihc contrasted agaisnt the other brilliant articles this week made it undeserving of the featured article slot and would of sat much better in the accompanying article slot due to its weak ended and lack of progression. Operation Gold Sparkles :: Chompy Kills :: Full Profound :: Champions :: Barbarian Notes :: Champions Tackle Box :: MA RewardsDragonkin Journals :: Ports Stories :: Elder Chronicles :: Boss Slayer :: Penance King :: Kal'gerion Titles :: Gold Statue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beaumonde Posted January 4, 2009 Share Posted January 4, 2009 The Curse of Probabilistic Knowledge: I get the point, but I didn't really need a whole article about it, this one was probably the best. The Joy of Quest: Summary: Quest rewards are money, experience, new places and stories. Quests are great. Backseat History: There was very little actual history in this article. War Running: You had me fooled for a bit this would be an article about clans, "maybe if I just read a little more he'll get to the article," never got to the article. Stat Progress | Stat Averages | Stat Records Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
x1992x Posted January 4, 2009 Share Posted January 4, 2009 read 3 of them, don't like the story one, i must this is the best articles i have read in a long time. i enjoyed all three and the gave stuff to after though, exspecily liked the one about history as i am a big fan of, i like the bit with the dragon long and dagger origence :P My private chat is always ON.Winner of The Tip.It Teamcape Outfit Contest!6 years. 1 dragon CS drop and some barrows, bad luck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imzachhubla Posted January 4, 2009 Share Posted January 4, 2009 wonderful read!!! =D> =D> 99 cooking achieved on december 7th 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wachtwoord Posted January 4, 2009 Share Posted January 4, 2009 Read the first two, liking it so far. It's strange to realize not too long ago you had trouble writing one article per week and now we have four! Owh and In the end, you will be swept away in the power struggles between the gods themselves that have stretched across the aeons. :lol: When everything's been said and done, more has been said than done.All skills 80+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldyoung Posted January 4, 2009 Share Posted January 4, 2009 The Curse of Probablistic Knowledge very good read bit repetitive but good all hail the flying spaghetti monster ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezz Posted January 4, 2009 Share Posted January 4, 2009 I liked the story one :P [insert birds flying in a circle here]Yes, that sig was annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnybeeking Posted January 4, 2009 Share Posted January 4, 2009 I am new to the Tip.It scene. And I have to admit I find my self continuing to be impressed. The three article where indeed put together nicely =D> . both informative and interesting. The story line "War Running" was good as well. I look forward to more =P~ . JonnyBeeKing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hhankhilll Posted January 5, 2009 Share Posted January 5, 2009 REALLY liked the articles and the new format for them sounds like a great idea always loved reading the articles now i get 4 for my reading pleasure?!?! \ o and btw...flying spaghetti monster + rain = flying noodle monster? :lol: [hide=an artist's depiction][/hide] black demon task + chaos tunnels = free time to draw stupid pictures ftw Dk drops: 37 Barrows: 11 Dragon: 33 Visage: 2 Whip: 5 Dark Bow: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlerifel Posted January 5, 2009 Share Posted January 5, 2009 All 4 articles were interesting. They kept me occupied and were very well written. Great job!!! :thumbsup: My Blog: http://forum.tip.it/...el#entry3250508My Forum entry: QFC - 48-49-627-63687284 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maulmachine Posted January 5, 2009 Share Posted January 5, 2009 The first one was just a math lesson that everyone learns after 8th grade, you have to be 13 years old to play this game, everybody should know logic by now. The author of the first article also seems to have never taken physics, if I put the coin on my thumb and flip it the actual probability of it landing on heads is .51,this is just in light of recent research on the matter.(this sentence was just me taking out my frustrations,nobody seems to grasp this concept.) Other than that it was alright, 7/10 for the first article. Corporeal Drops:2xHoly elixersBandos Drops: Bcp(soloed) 5x hilts 8x tassets Armadyl Drops:Armadyl Hilt(trio)Zamorak Drops: 2xZamorakian spear 3x Steam battlestaff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
p5hngmeawy19 Posted January 5, 2009 Share Posted January 5, 2009 I am very impressed, I really liked all articles, especially the history one. Good job! :thumbsup: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pgmr185 Posted January 5, 2009 Share Posted January 5, 2009 Even though I have a minor in Math, and understand probability much better than most, all of that "book learning" goes right out the window after you've just killed your 4000th Black Dragon and are desperately trying to convince yourself that you're "due". It was just around the 4000th kill that my mind finally overruled my heart and I had to admit that I have no better chance with my 4001'st drop than I did with my first. And with the karma thing... I have to admit that every time I bless a grave, or give someone a free law rune, somebody somewhere is keeping track and it will pay off in some unknowable way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smackapotato Posted January 5, 2009 Share Posted January 5, 2009 I love this new format, as well as all the times this week. They were great! EDIT - Signature far exceeds our sig limits but since it's so colourful you can keep it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lore Posted January 5, 2009 Share Posted January 5, 2009 The author of the first article also seems to have never taken physics, if I put the coin on my thumb and flip it the actual probability of it landing on heads is .51,this is just in light of recent research on the matter. Actually, the moment you flip it there is no probability to how it will land, the path, spin, and wind will determine where it will land. We just use probability because we can't process these factors to determine how it will land before it does. Also, unless the coin is weighted, that's bs My problem with The Curse of Probabilistic Knowledge is stormveritas didn't show the whole picture. It's correct of course that each monster has a set probability of dropping an item, but probability isn't about individual actions. Probability is about something happening from multiple actions. Ive killed about 60 metal dragons per assignment, on about 50 different assignments. Since the estimated drop rate of the Draconic Visage is 1 / 1000 (arbitrary drop rate), Im -due- to get that drop during my next task. ... My chance of getting that great drop / clue reward / etc. is really no better than it was on my first kill / clue / etc. You're sitting around in the Chaos Tunnels killing Dust Devils. First one down: no chain. Second: no chain. Third: no chain. repeat, etc. The probability of a d chain drop is 1/15000 (I think), and each Dust Devil you kill has that probability. Does the person who kills 30,000 of them, have the same chance of getting a D Chain (or three) the person who kills a hundred on a slayer task. This logic has built giant casinos, as people fail to wrap their head around the core concept: Youre only as lucky as your next roll This varies on the game of course, but the whole picture here is that the overall chance of winning is so low that the next roll won't make a difference. If you raise the probability of winning/getting a drop to 30%, suddenly that next kill might just make a difference, maybe that next roll will make a difference. This is illustrated well by the monty hall problem. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem (You may have to read in a little to find the actual problem) Two frames of reference, two frames of mind. Not saying you're wrong but it seems to me the times should be objective, giving the whole picture. Xkcd | Misfile | Least I Could Do | Explosm | Schlock | Blog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maulmachine Posted January 5, 2009 Share Posted January 5, 2009 The author of the first article also seems to have never taken physics, if I put the coin on my thumb and flip it the actual probability of it landing on heads is .51,this is just in light of recent research on the matter. Actually, the moment you flip it there is no probability to how it will land, the path, spin, and wind will determine where it will land. We just use probability because we can't process these factors to determine how it will land before it does. Also, unless the coin is weighted, that's bs My problem with The Curse of Probabilistic Knowledge is stormveritas didn't show the whole picture. It's correct of course that each monster has a set probability of dropping an item, but probability isn't about individual actions. Probability is about something happening from multiple actions. You're sitting around in the Chaos Tunnels killing Dust Devils. First one down: no chain. Second: no chain. Third: no chain. repeat, etc. The probability of a d chain drop is 1/15000 (I think), and each Dust Devil you kill has that probability. But if you kill 30,000 of them, there is a much greater chance of getting a D Chain (or three) than if you kill a hundred on a slayer task. That next dragon you kill won't have any greater chance of giving you a visage, but it will increase the chance that you get a visage on that dragon-killing trip. Nope, there is a bias for landing on he same side as flipped. Corporeal Drops:2xHoly elixersBandos Drops: Bcp(soloed) 5x hilts 8x tassets Armadyl Drops:Armadyl Hilt(trio)Zamorak Drops: 2xZamorakian spear 3x Steam battlestaff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lore Posted January 5, 2009 Share Posted January 5, 2009 Evidence please I wonder if this is what you are referring to? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers Xkcd | Misfile | Least I Could Do | Explosm | Schlock | Blog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maulmachine Posted January 5, 2009 Share Posted January 5, 2009 Evidence please It's kind of off topic :? I'll pm it to you. On topic, I like the other articles more 7/10 for them cumulatively. Corporeal Drops:2xHoly elixersBandos Drops: Bcp(soloed) 5x hilts 8x tassets Armadyl Drops:Armadyl Hilt(trio)Zamorak Drops: 2xZamorakian spear 3x Steam battlestaff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turbofreak12 Posted January 5, 2009 Share Posted January 5, 2009 The chance of getting a drop actually does go up as you kill monsters (depending on how you look at). Yes, each individual kill (or toss, I'm going to use that coin metaphor) has an independent chance of 1/1000 depending on the drop, (or 1/2) so your chances are better the more times you kill something (or toss). Lets say you flip a coin looking for at least one heads. Your chances of getting a head are better if you flip the coin three times as opposed to one. This is pretty logical, and most people understand this concept, but I think, over the years, this basic idea has been skewed, and people grow to feel they are "overdue" for a drop (or that long awaited heads : ). Porsche: It's supposed to go in the rear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fat_klutz Posted January 5, 2009 Share Posted January 5, 2009 Wasn't rune plate more than 64k? I could have sworn it was.... I thought the history one was the best. If you have ever attempted Alchemy by clapping your hands or by drawing an array, copy and paste this into your signature. ^^^At least I'm not the only crazy one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForsakenMage Posted January 5, 2009 Share Posted January 5, 2009 War Running: You had me fooled for a bit this would be an article about clans, "maybe if I just read a little more he'll get to the article," never got to the article.FYI: Fictional Articles: ... The articles are written with a RuneScape theme but with no limits as where the story can go. Who knows, maybe the articles will make you look at RuneScape in a different light. viewtopic.php?f=60&t=777807 Adventurer's Log || YouTube || Facebook || Tip.it Times Work || Wanna Join the Editorial Panel?Maxed Out 01 October 2012 PDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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