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Tip.It Times: Jan 4, 2009 (New Style!)


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As you will notice right off, the times are now under a new format! Make sure to check out the announcement found here: A New Times: Features & Writers (Discussion)

 

 

 

When replying please make sure to clarify the article you are replying to! Thanks!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You can also get a nice glimpse of all the articles offered in a week here.

 

 

 

Enjoy all the articles!

 

~Odie

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Wow 4 articles, sure makes a good read :).

 

 

 

The thing I really hate with this (runescape) community is that people don't know what they're talking about: especially you find this when they start talking about chances and randoms.

 

 

 

Most of the people are so dead wrong and they even believe themself it's hilarious and annoying at the same time!

First they came to fishing

and I didn't speak out because I wasn't fishing

 

Then they came to the yews

and I didn't speak out because I didn't cut yews

 

Then they came for the ores

and I didn't speak out because I didn't collect ores

 

Then they came for me

and there was no one left to speak out for me.

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Wow, one of the best articles I've read so far here :shock:

 

 

 

The Curse of Probablistic Knowledge and The Joy of Quest were the best of them all :thumbup:

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PROUD Owner of Quest cape since 12/25/08 99 Attack Achieved 6/5/09

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Best single TT Reward: Saradomin Platebody + Zammy Page 3

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A very nice tip.it times comapred to some of late.

 

 

 

The ficitonal article was not my cup of tea but nicely done.

 

 

 

The historical article raised a few good points and is a nice opener to that sort of article

 

 

 

The article of quests was brilliant excuted and again laves things that could be expanded upon by further articles at a later date.

 

 

 

What I did find utter dismay at is the "featured article" while it was well written and concisely thought out it didn't seem to say anything or progress anywhere, in fatc in the entire read I could condense the entire thing down to "Rs players often base their chance of drops on if i kill 1000 drags then i WILL get drop thts 1/1000 odds. This is not true as the chance on each kill is independant" It's a shame really as it started as apromising article but quickly descended into a mere spiral of repetition whihc contrasted agaisnt the other brilliant articles this week made it undeserving of the featured article slot and would of sat much better in the accompanying article slot due to its weak ended and lack of progression.

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The Curse of Probabilistic Knowledge:

 

I get the point, but I didn't really need a whole article about it, this one was probably the best.

 

 

 

The Joy of Quest:

 

Summary: Quest rewards are money, experience, new places and stories. Quests are great.

 

 

 

Backseat History:

 

There was very little actual history in this article.

 

 

 

War Running:

 

You had me fooled for a bit this would be an article about clans, "maybe if I just read a little more he'll get to the article," never got to the article.

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read 3 of them, don't like the story one, i must this is the best articles i have read in a long time. i enjoyed all three and the gave stuff to after though, exspecily liked the one about history as i am a big fan of, i like the bit with the dragon long and dagger origence :P

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6 years. 1 dragon CS drop and some barrows, bad luck?

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Read the first two, liking it so far. It's strange to realize not too long ago you had trouble writing one article per week and now we have four!

 

 

 

Owh and

 

In the end, you will be swept away in the power struggles between the gods themselves that have stretched across the aeons.
:lol:
When everything's been said and done, more has been said than done.

All skills 80+

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REALLY liked the articles and the new format for them sounds like a great idea always loved reading the articles now i get 4 for my reading pleasure?!?! \'

 

 

 

o and btw...flying spaghetti monster + rain = flying noodle monster? :lol:

 

 

 

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black demon task + chaos tunnels = free time to draw stupid pictures ftw

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Dk drops: 37 Barrows: 11 Dragon: 33 Visage: 2 Whip: 5 Dark Bow: 1

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The first one was just a math lesson that everyone learns after 8th grade, you have to be 13 years old to play this game, everybody should know logic by now. The author of the first article also seems to have never taken physics, if I put the coin on my thumb and flip it the actual probability of it landing on heads is .51,this is just in light of recent research on the matter.(this sentence was just me taking out my frustrations,nobody seems to grasp this concept.) Other than that it was alright, 7/10 for the first article.

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Corporeal Drops:2xHoly elixers

Bandos Drops: Bcp(soloed) 5x hilts 8x tassets

Armadyl Drops:Armadyl Hilt(trio)

Zamorak Drops: 2xZamorakian spear 3x Steam battlestaff

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Even though I have a minor in Math, and understand probability much better than most, all of that "book learning" goes right out the window after you've just killed your 4000th Black Dragon and are desperately trying to convince yourself that you're "due".

 

 

 

It was just around the 4000th kill that my mind finally overruled my heart and I had to admit that I have no better chance with my 4001'st drop than I did with my first.

 

 

 

And with the karma thing... I have to admit that every time I bless a grave, or give someone a free law rune, somebody somewhere is keeping track and it will pay off in some unknowable way.

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The author of the first article also seems to have never taken physics, if I put the coin on my thumb and flip it the actual probability of it landing on heads is .51,this is just in light of recent research on the matter.

 

 

 

Actually, the moment you flip it there is no probability to how it will land, the path, spin, and wind will determine where it will land. We just use probability because we can't process these factors to determine how it will land before it does.

 

 

 

Also, unless the coin is weighted, that's bs

 

 

 

 

 

My problem with The Curse of Probabilistic Knowledge is stormveritas didn't show the whole picture. It's correct of course that each monster has a set probability of dropping an item, but probability isn't about individual actions. Probability is about something happening from multiple actions.

 

 

 

Ive killed about 60 metal dragons per assignment, on about 50 different assignments. Since the estimated drop rate of the Draconic Visage is 1 / 1000 (arbitrary drop rate), Im -due- to get that drop during my next task. ...

 

My chance of getting that great drop / clue reward / etc. is really no better than it was on my first kill / clue / etc.

 

 

 

You're sitting around in the Chaos Tunnels killing Dust Devils. First one down: no chain. Second: no chain. Third: no chain. repeat, etc.

 

The probability of a d chain drop is 1/15000 (I think), and each Dust Devil you kill has that probability. Does the person who kills 30,000 of them, have the same chance of getting a D Chain (or three) the person who kills a hundred on a slayer task.

 

 

 

This logic has built giant casinos, as people fail to wrap their head around the core concept: Youre only as lucky as your next roll

 

This varies on the game of course, but the whole picture here is that the overall chance of winning is so low that the next roll won't make a difference.

 

If you raise the probability of winning/getting a drop to 30%, suddenly that next kill might just make a difference, maybe that next roll will make a difference.

 

 

 

This is illustrated well by the monty hall problem. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem (You may have to read in a little to find the actual problem)

 

 

 

Two frames of reference, two frames of mind.

 

Not saying you're wrong but it seems to me the times should be objective, giving the whole picture.

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The author of the first article also seems to have never taken physics, if I put the coin on my thumb and flip it the actual probability of it landing on heads is .51,this is just in light of recent research on the matter.

 

 

 

Actually, the moment you flip it there is no probability to how it will land, the path, spin, and wind will determine where it will land. We just use probability because we can't process these factors to determine how it will land before it does.

 

 

 

Also, unless the coin is weighted, that's bs

 

 

 

 

 

My problem with The Curse of Probabilistic Knowledge is stormveritas didn't show the whole picture. It's correct of course that each monster has a set probability of dropping an item, but probability isn't about individual actions. Probability is about something happening from multiple actions.

 

 

 

You're sitting around in the Chaos Tunnels killing Dust Devils. First one down: no chain. Second: no chain. Third: no chain. repeat, etc.

 

The probability of a d chain drop is 1/15000 (I think), and each Dust Devil you kill has that probability. But if you kill 30,000 of them, there is a much greater chance of getting a D Chain (or three) than if you kill a hundred on a slayer task.

 

 

 

That next dragon you kill won't have any greater chance of giving you a visage, but it will increase the chance that you get a visage on that dragon-killing trip.

 

Nope, there is a bias for landing on he same side as flipped.

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Corporeal Drops:2xHoly elixers

Bandos Drops: Bcp(soloed) 5x hilts 8x tassets

Armadyl Drops:Armadyl Hilt(trio)

Zamorak Drops: 2xZamorakian spear 3x Steam battlestaff

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Evidence please

 

It's kind of off topic :? I'll pm it to you.

 

 

 

On topic, I like the other articles more 7/10 for them cumulatively.

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Corporeal Drops:2xHoly elixers

Bandos Drops: Bcp(soloed) 5x hilts 8x tassets

Armadyl Drops:Armadyl Hilt(trio)

Zamorak Drops: 2xZamorakian spear 3x Steam battlestaff

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The chance of getting a drop actually does go up as you kill monsters (depending on how you look at). Yes, each individual kill (or toss, I'm going to use that coin metaphor) has an independent chance of 1/1000 depending on the drop, (or 1/2) so your chances are better the more times you kill something (or toss). Lets say you flip a coin looking for at least one heads. Your chances of getting a head are better if you flip the coin three times as opposed to one. This is pretty logical, and most people understand this concept, but I think, over the years, this basic idea has been skewed, and people grow to feel they are "overdue" for a drop (or that long awaited heads ::' ).

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Wasn't rune plate more than 64k? I could have sworn it was....

 

 

 

I thought the history one was the best.

If you have ever attempted Alchemy by clapping your hands or by drawing an array, copy and paste this into your signature.

^^^At least I'm not the only crazy one

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War Running:

 

You had me fooled for a bit this would be an article about clans, "maybe if I just read a little more he'll get to the article," never got to the article.

FYI:
Fictional Articles:

 

...

 

The articles are written with a RuneScape theme but with no limits as where the story can go. Who knows, maybe the articles will make you look at RuneScape in a different light.

 

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