Why you should never use a "Merchanting Clan"

[ilovecuttingyews]

I love how you're all on the manipulation leaders side. :rolleyes:

I don't see anyone taking the leaders' side. But what we are saying is that because it doen't affect Jagex's bottom line, they won't do anything about it. What they are doing is so borderline scamming that unless they outright admit that they are scamming players, Jagex won't do much.

[Vann]

Ohh wow, Qeltar is back. Been a while since I've seen you on TIF.

 

OT: I personally like merchanting/manipulation clans. I profit from their dumps because there are so many clans out there, but only a relatively small amount of items that they buy out and dump. An example of this would be Rune Boots. I personally made about 8M profit off these in a 5 day period not too long ago. If you pay attention it is really quite easy to make money from these clans. How I do it is:

1) Clan A buys item out then dumps at X price

2) I buy the item when I feel it is close to its lowest place (By looking at graphs)

3) After the dump when the item gets to Y price clan B buys item out

4) I sell item after clan B buys it out but before they dump

5) Clan B dumps item at Z price

 

Sometimes I will "lose" money the first update or two, but I just hold for a few more and I end up profiting. When I try to get people to do this they freak out when the item drops for an update or two after they buy so they sell for a loss. If you mess up and don't sell prior to the dump then all you have to do is hold the item for a few weeks until another clan picks it up.

 

So I am glad Jagex hasn't done anything to get rid of these clans because it makes it easy for me to make extra money while I am Slaying or if I don't have time to play but a little bit a week because of real life issues. Good topic, I guess, but by posting here you are basically just preaching to the choir as many of the people on Tip.it have seen posts just like this here many times.

 

peace,

Vann

 

P.S.

When I said that I will "lose" money on the first update or two I am just saying that the price of the item goes down. I understand that there is really no profit or loss until you sell the item. I get sick of people who don't understand this that are saying "man I've made 20M on my SGS because I bought it at 50M," but in reality they haven't made anything because they still own it. I just put this in here because I don't want someone calling me out on it *cough* OTM *cough*... haha

[Yay0siris]

x = scammers

y = innocent people

 

x will tell how ever many of y to mass buy a certain product

 

at the same time, x will have a lot of this product

 

with a low number of this product floating around in the G.E. the price of it will rise

 

x will sell their product without telling y, ensuring x gets a big profit off the product

 

by the time y figures this out, so much of the product has been replenished into the G.E. that they price lowers back to normal, or hits rock bottom

 

x gets profit, while y loses profit

 

-----------

 

like supply and demand

 

if there is no supply, there is a high demand

if there is a high supply, there is a low demand

 

the scammers manipulate this idea

[Epic]

They may not be the primary cause, but they are certainly the spark that starts it. Several months ago, people with 100's of Mills would be more then fine with having a large cash pile. But then something like this happens

That initial spike may have been due to merchants, but the overall price rise is NOT. If it were only merchants doing this, the price would have dropped right back down again. Iron ore is produced in too high a quantity for its price to be held up indefinitely by merchants.

 

The real reasons are the silly PvP reward system, and also the introduction of the Living Rock Caverns.

 

True enough, the initial spike was merchants, but that initial spike STILL happened, and the resulting price increases still followed, due to the merchanting clan. Now, while I understand that there are some updates that make large price changes (Runecrafting Guild raised the price of Essence and dropped the price of most runes) and that it is only logical to use these changes for profit, but making these changes happen, through the use of other people, who are usually mis-informed, is not exactly playing nicely. Now, if there were no merchanting clan, I'm sure that the prices would increase anyways, but the would have a slower, more steady inflation, instead of this "Double in price overnight" crap...

 

I agree that merchants are not the ones who are responsible for inflation, but they certainly play a key roll in starting the inflation of items (alot of the time). The over abundance of GP in the game acts like a catalyst, where it just speeds up inflation.

 

I think that there should be more more money sinks to solve this problem as well, but at the same time, remember... Most money sinks do not have any real pay off, other than them being fun. If you realize this, and ignore the sinks, you still have the problem of too much money! This leaves us with the problem of smart players (However rare they are) saving up, and watching everyone else's money disappear.

 

If there wasn't so many gullible people around they would cease to exist.

 

I believe the someone said it best when they said "Its quite true there's a fool born every minute. It's also quite true they don't die that fast." and this applies to Runescape... A noob joins every minute, and they don't quite quit that fast.

 

There's been no need for "merchants" since the Grand Exchange. Before, yes, you needed a guy willing to take the time to gather small amounts of products from many people to sell in large amounts to a few persons. With the Grand Exchange, there's literally no reason for such merchants anymore. Now, it's just not merchanting, it's playing the market which isn't a bad thing. Problem is, people are using the Grand Exchange to manipulate the market.

 

Thing is, when Jagex takes steps to slow down market manipulation, people moan. Think about it: In one day, is there a reason to have to buy more than 5000 of any one conusmable type item (exceptions for things such as shards and runes)? Is there any reason to buy more than 10 of non-consumable type items?

 

Want to stop rampant manipulation using the GE? Put in stronger daily limits for buying only (selling no problem). With stronger daily limits, it brings back those that really want to merchant in that they can individually cordinate with users to buy their daily quotas

 

Ex 1: User B wants 50,000 iron ore now, but the daily limit is 5000. User A, being a good merchant, asks 10 players to buy 5000 ore each from the GE and sell to him (maybe a slight mark-up). User A then sells all 50,000 ore to User B (with a better mark-up via junk).

 

Ex 2: User B wants 100 sets of rune armor now (maybe some clan event), but the daily limit is 10 for non consumables. User A gathers the 100 from various users, and sells all to User B with a nice mark-up via junk. Problem solved.

 

So, yes, people might complain about stricter daily limits on the GE. However, it opens up the opportunity for real merchants to make a come back. Plus, it removes the ability to manipulate the market by abusing the GE.

 

Question would, what are reasonable (but stricter) daily limits that won't bother 90% of the players game style?

 

You bring about a good point. I mean, who would honestly smelt 5000 iron ore in a day? Ok, maybe if you're on drugs caffeine you might, but even then... A slight increase would be easy. I like this idea... Also, it is not possible to lend more than one item at a time (And you can't lend sets or armor) so I don't see how you could possibly need 100 sets of armor...

 

Want to stop rampant manipulation using the GE? Put in stronger daily limits for buying only (selling no problem). With stronger daily limits, it brings back those that really want to merchant in that they can individually cordinate with users to buy their daily quotas

 

I don't think that would solve the problem at all. It would just mean longer periods of time where real players can't buy or sell the items they need. The limits you are proposing are unfair and will just gum up the works even more.

 

Amusingly, it is the GE price limits themselves that are largely responsible for this situation. Jagex put price controls in to produce "stability" and prevent market manipulation, but it has had the opposite effect. Market manipulation requires low trading volume, easy information about price movements, and the ability to communicate buy and sell decisions. The current GE system makes it easy for players to choose items to manipulate because they know exactly what the price will do and when it will do it, and because the bogus pricing on thousands of items knocks trade quantities down to where a single clan can dominate the entire market.

 

There are both systemic and reactive steps that Jagex could take to deal with this situation, but more controls is not the answer.

 

Merch clans are part of the reason we have such crazy inflation, though not all of it.

They are responsible for a tiny fraction of it, at best. They are just a convenient scapegoat.

 

The whole economy is honestly screwed up because of the lack of Jagex control.

No, the economy is screwed up because of excessive Jagex control, combined with inadequate oversight.

 

Well Jagex ever take action against the clans? Quite possibly. They did take action against RWT, which was a similar issue, did they not?

Not really. RWT was directly hurting their bottom line and threatening their ability to accept credit cards for subscription payments. This is just a gameplay issue.

 

I agree that while they are partly to blame, the damage that these clans have done is largely exaggerated, but it still is a start. I would like to also say that these clans DO in fact hurt their bottom line. I have met many people who quit members because they were tired of all the massively over priced items, and they constant market changes. They keep telling me that members is over rated (and having been a member twice, I can attest to some knowledge.) and as far as I can tell, they say the same thing to other people... This means LESS money for Jagex, because of this.

 

Yay another one of those beaten dead horse topic threads the same topic, talking about the same old crap. It seems mostly common sense, but some people are gullible I guess. It all boils down to inability to communicate and understand how manipulation works. There is one way for manipulation to exist but doesn't 'rip a giant hole in the average joe's bank'. How? It's to manipulate jewellery because of the rogue who buys it for GE Min.

 

Yet you posted here anyways? -.-

 

It's hard to forget the fact that running these clanchats are so profitable. A 1b investment will probably make 700m easily, which is alot when considering high numbers. These numbers are a guess, so don't flame me if they are not correct.

 

Yes, but that is by preying on less intelligent, or more gullible people... Not what most people consider charity work....

 

x = scammers

y = innocent people

 

x will tell how ever many of y to mass buy a certain product

 

at the same time, x will have a lot of this product

 

with a low number of this product floating around in the G.E. the price of it will rise

 

x will sell their product without telling y, ensuring x gets a big profit off the product

 

by the time y figures this out, so much of the product has been replenished into the G.E. that they price lowers back to normal, or hits rock bottom

 

x gets profit, while y loses profit

 

-----------

 

like supply and demand

 

if there is no supply, there is a high demand

if there is a high supply, there is a low demand

 

the scammers manipulate this idea

 

The G.E. is built on supply and demand anyways! Why mess with that, by getting people to create false demand?

 

 

Ok, all in all, I do not like merchant clans, but I do remember that there are some out there who are honestly trying to help people make money...

[qeltar]

True enough, the initial spike was merchants, but that initial spike STILL happened, and the resulting price increases still followed, due to the merchanting clan.

Even that is complete speculation. It's quite common for prices to spike for reasons that have nothing to do with merchants.

 

Now, if there were no merchanting clan, I'm sure that the prices would increase anyways, but the would have a slower, more steady inflation, instead of this "Double in price overnight" crap...

But nothing *does* double in price over night -- it takes a couple of weeks thanks to the foolish way the GE operates. We would be better off if prices DID double overnight and then immediately go back down, as used to happen, rather than everyone sitting in limbo for weeks unable to trade.

 

You bring about a good point. I mean, who would honestly smelt 5000 iron ore in a day? Ok, maybe if you're on drugs caffeine you might, but even then... A slight increase would be easy. I like this idea... Also, it is not possible to lend more than one item at a time (And you can't lend sets or armor) so I don't see how you could possibly need 100 sets of armor...

So in addition to all of the existing nonsense that saps the fun out of the game, you want MORE places where bureaucrats who barely if ever play the game telling you how much you "honestly" need? 5,000 iron ore takes less than 5 hours to smelt. Oh, what's that, we could pick a different number? Sure -- how do we decide?

 

I agree that while they are partly to blame, the damage that these clans have done is largely exaggerated, but it still is a start.

It's a distraction.

 

Merchant clans are a symptom of a messed up market. The solution is to fix the market. Take the ridiculous price controls off the GE and most of the issues with these clans would disappear overnight.

 

The G.E. is built on supply and demand anyways!

It is, except when it isn't.

[Cantristenon]

They should make GE prices to update constantly instead of once a day (or in some cases once a week or once a month..)

[Kilo]

Public service announcement heard.

[bedman]

They should make GE prices to update constantly instead of once a day (or in some cases once a week or once a month..)

That's what I'm trying to tell everyone all the time, but they don't seem to understand it.

[XxTearGodxX]

Thank you Captain Obvious.

 

 

 

[timmmmm83]

But nothing *does* double in price over night -- it takes a couple of weeks thanks to the foolish way the GE operates. We would be better off if prices DID double overnight and then immediately go back down, as used to happen, rather than everyone sitting in limbo for weeks unable to trade.

If you want to be 100% correct, items worth 1 coin can double in price overnight. :twisted:

But how would that help in any way?

If items could double in price over night, why wouldn't merch clans buy them out for a week (or even months) and then dump? They would make 100% profit the first day, 200% profit the second day, 400% profit the third day, ...

Compared to now, thats even worse.

 

You bring about a good point. I mean, who would honestly smelt 5000 iron ore in a day? Ok, maybe if you're on drugs caffeine you might, but even then... A slight increase would be easy. I like this idea... Also, it is not possible to lend more than one item at a time (And you can't lend sets or armor) so I don't see how you could possibly need 100 sets of armor...

So in addition to all of the existing nonsense that saps the fun out of the game, you want MORE places where bureaucrats who barely if ever play the game telling you how much you "honestly" need? 5,000 iron ore takes less than 5 hours to smelt. Oh, what's that, we could pick a different number? Sure -- how do we decide?

Hmm, take one part of his reasoning and take it down, nice job. Now take down his point "how you could possibly need 100 sets of armor" please.

And you don't decide, Jagex decides.

 

 

They should make GE prices to update constantly instead of once a day (or in some cases once a week or once a month..)

That's what I'm trying to tell everyone all the time, but they don't seem to understand it.

If they would update prices constantly. ->Merchants would camp at ge, constantly renewing their offers. Making 5% every ge update (multiple times per day)

If they would update prices once a month. -> Wouldn't this make bought out items to be sold with even more junk?

How would any of those help? :mellow:

 

Jagex has alot of staff working for them, some of them must be smart enough to figure out a way to handle this mess we call rs-economy.

[MerchantInTheDark]

The G.E. is built on supply and demand anyways! Why mess with that, by getting people to create false demand?

 

 

Ok, all in all, I do not like merchant clans, but I do remember that there are some out there who are honestly trying to help people make money...

 

There are those who are legitimately trying to help. For example, I post several good investing items on the ExchangeWatch section of Rune-Tips.net, but I only post items that I know will already rise due to economic conditions, graphs, etc. I also make a point to only buy the item AFTER I release it, and if I recommend that it's time time to sell I will only sell mine AFTER I announce.

 

The main problem with merch clans is not that they affect prices - this may be annoying, but buying institutions do this to real-life stocks all the time - the real problem is that the clan leaders blatantly scam their victims by using them to buy their "old" items. Corruption, in other words.

[Epic]

True enough, the initial spike was merchants, but that initial spike STILL happened, and the resulting price increases still followed, due to the merchanting clan.

Even that is complete speculation. It's quite common for prices to spike for reasons that have nothing to do with merchants.

 

Forgive me... I was not specific enough. While I admitted that there are many times that "natural" changes happen to the G.E. (Like I said, the essence and rune prices changed after the Runecrafting guild) many times, people will see an increase in the price of a common item, and then decide to "solo merchant" the item, hoping to make an innocent profit... This only adds to the damage. After the item gets dumped, people will see the price of the item at a massive discount, and buy a bunch, waiting for the price to rise... Then, they will sell, causing more fluctuations(sp?) in the prices, and depending on the item, this can make very long term effects...

 

Now, if there were no merchanting clan, I'm sure that the prices would increase anyways, but the would have a slower, more steady inflation, instead of this "Double in price overnight" crap...

But nothing *does* double in price over night -- it takes a couple of weeks thanks to the foolish way the GE operates. We would be better off if prices DID double overnight and then immediately go back down, as used to happen, rather than everyone sitting in limbo for weeks unable to trade.

 

There have been items that nearly double in price in about 24 hours. I've seen it. While most merchanting clans tend to go for higher priced items, because those can increase the most, sometimes they go for lower level ones that are common anyways. I remember when Mind Runes were 9 GP on the G.E. and then I went to buy some for magic training on the Magic Dummies, and they cost 34 GP! Then, two days later, I went back, and the price and settled back down to normal... See? These changes can be amazingly sudden.

 

You bring about a good point. I mean, who would honestly smelt 5000 iron ore in a day? Ok, maybe if you're on drugs caffeine you might, but even then... A slight increase would be easy. I like this idea... Also, it is not possible to lend more than one item at a time (And you can't lend sets or armor) so I don't see how you could possibly need 100 sets of armor...

So in addition to all of the existing nonsense that saps the fun out of the game, you want MORE places where bureaucrats who barely if ever play the game telling you how much you "honestly" need? 5,000 iron ore takes less than 5 hours to smelt. Oh, what's that, we could pick a different number? Sure -- how do we decide?

 

Pfft, and who would spend a solid five hours smelting iron ore? Ok, fine, so you want to no life! But that just means that Jagex can do some simple calculations to figure out how many iron bars you can smelt in let's say 8 hours, because after that, you are either botting, or you need to take a break. Then, you remove a small amount of time from there for mistakes, talking to other people (Because if you spend 8 hours smelting, and you do NO talking at all, you are botting.) and the figure that all out... So then Jagex makes that the maximum you can buy in 24 hours. This could actually help the health of some players, I suppose, but I won't go into that...

 

I agree that while they are partly to blame, the damage that these clans have done is largely exaggerated, but it still is a start.

 

It's a distraction.

 

Merchant clans are a symptom of a messed up market. The solution is to fix the market. Take the ridiculous price controls off the GE and most of the issues with these clans would disappear overnight.

 

I believe that the price controls have been lifted from the G.E. and now look at the prices of many common items. Water runes cost LESS to buy from the shops, and that is logical, because they are a relatively high demand item (Ice spells, and training for lower level mages, plus the altar is one of the farthest from a bank (F2P)) and so that I can understand. It used to be that you could not get any water runes without waiting for an hour, and then they sold for 16 GP. Now, while I think that the price is overkill, this is in fact evidence that the limits were removed... I believe that they were removed when the shops became stocked for individual players.

[MerchantInTheDark]

I've never heard that the limits were removed - I know that they are still in place for runes, I invested in laws just a week ago and the limit is still 10k [er 4 hours. Jagex shouldn't remove the limits either way, as this makes it even easier to manipulate prices, although limits on items like iron platebodies (100/hr) should obviously be adjusted to be less strict then really expensive armor (which is still 100/4 hours).