New Skill Tomorrow??

[3PointMan]

I am just reposting this, I found it incredibly interesting and all of his reasons were very logical.

 

EDIT: THIS IS NOT MY IDEA DONT [bleep] ME OUT FOR IT. IM AM JUST REPOSTING IT

 

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Now, I'm sure that every week there is a thread like this so that when the new skill actually DOES come out, the person can say they called it etc etc. However, I have extremely valid reasons and evidence on why it is going to come out tommorow.

 

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1.) Studies have proven that events that boost player gain keep a large influx of players on that game for a few weeks. What this means is that events such as the double XP weekend tend to boost the amount of players playing Runescape for the next month or so. Other MMO's have implemented events such as the double xp weekend to gain players for the release of a new skill which happens two weeks later. This exact thing happened with WOW and other MMO's where they released an event to boost players for their new skill.

 

2.) No Twitter update. This isn't the first time this has happened, yet whenever there isn't a twitter update on sunday it is explained why on the Runescape forums. This week the twitter update was released on monday for the first time ever and wasn't explained on the Runescape forums.

 

3.) Constitution. Normally, if such an extremely large amount of players ranted about an update, Jagex would remove it (unless they had reasons to keep it such as the removal of the wilderness) - 30,000 posts were posted in two days on one forum thread about this issue, yet Jagex remains firm against removing it, despite there being absolutely NO reason for the update. As many players have said, this HP update is useless and does nothing- yet obviously the rework of HP was neccessary for the new skill or Jagex wouldn't have remained so firm about not even thinking about changing it even though the update was useless (useless to the current game at least) [/hide]

 

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4.) Timing. This week, tuesday, would be the PERFECT time for a new skill to be launched. It is right before the easter event, and before any holiday event a large amount of players who wouldn't normally play check into Runescape in an effort to see if the holiday event is up or not. There are other SIGNIFICANT advantages to timing it this tuesday- one being the aforementioned double XP weekend. Not only that, but Mod Mark randomly commented on the forums for apparently no reason that the new skill would NOT be coming out the first TWO weeks of March. Although this doesn't imply it will come out the third week (this week), it does seem suspicious that a J Mod would randomly make a post about the new skill not coming out the first two weeks in March, when the post was made two months ago... hmm.. (still editing)

 

5.) Last week's update. Last week's update was the first F2p update in years- the number of free to play players JUMPED an EXTREMELY large amount- similar to the double xp weekend, this is ideal for releasing a new skill. The new skill is going to be for free to play players, and in an effort to make the maximum amount of people playing Runescape during the release of the skill, Jagex released that update. Keep in mind that the Double XP weekend was for members only, and to boost F2P players they released this F2P update, as they had released the double xp weekend to boost P2P players. Obviously that one small free to play update was made for the same reasons as the double xp weekend, to maximize the amount of players playing for the release of a new skill as tons of other MMO's such as WOW have done. [/hide]

 

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6.) More Twitter evidence.

 

"Going to go out on a line and apologies about the weight for this weeks RuneScape update hint. We couldn’t think of hook to bait you with"

 

At first, this obviously sounds like a fishing update- but first of all, Jagex never makes Twitter updates THAT obvious. Second of all, we just had a MAJOR fishing rework with the agility/fish update two weeks ago and the Ancient Caverns update. We know from J Mod posts that the new skill is going to be HEAVILY releated to the sea, but will NOT be sailing. Thus, it seems to me that this Twitter hint would be perfect for the release of the new skill.

 

7.) Strange Rock update. For years, if you talked to people in the varrock museum they talk about an island that they are building a barge to get to, but you can only board when you have all kudos.

 

"Well, recently we found a rather intrestingly island to the North of Morytania..." "We have constructed a canal and barge." "...so then they can be invited on our dig on the new island." (Varrock Museum Person)

 

This could be a way for the free players to get to this new island without having to cross into members borders.

 

After three years, this has never been implemented.. but new skill has "sailing featured quite prominently in it" (Mod Mark)... and we just got this update that boosts our Kudos.. [/hide]

 

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8.) (Credit goes to J 2001 for this) I was just looking at the release dates for WOW, and they all happen to be in between Oct. to April(Thanksgiving to Easter). One reason to explain this is that people tend to stay inside more during this time. I am not sure Jagex will apply the same marketing assumptions but as a pretty big company there are reasons to believe that they will.

 

Further proof: Mods said that the skill will come closer to the middle of the year than the end, so it can come from March to September. Since April to September is not the best time for a release, it comes down to the time before Easter. We are 2 weeks away from Easter, and I think we will see the skill in the next 2 weeks. However, why would they release a skill + easter event in the same week? No one would play the easter event.. so this week has to be it.

 

9.) (Credit goes to Vlastne) Jagex is fairly into symbolism/patterns, especially with quest releases (not jsut dates, but qps and # of quests as well). Two months after strange power, one month after castle? Tomorrow must be important.

 

It is possible that the strange power would be a lead-in the the new skill - we gain new powers, clearly. also, the path/gate where the Fremmenik guards are is in F2P wilderness.

 

Also, the format of the hint is something - It is indeed different than others, there is no mod afterwards - possibly meaning that no single person can take credit for the skill. Delaying it on purpose to fit with the hint, and one, possibly two, misspellings.

 

10.) I love to stalk J Mods, and I'm friends with many of them, as I hang out in their clan chats all the time. Normally I see at least 15 per day either log in as I'm on their friends list or be in a clan chat. Today, the day before the new skill, I have seen 0 J mods log in or be in ANY clan chat. Coincidence?

 

11.) Post ideas! Just started this thread, I have room for many more ideas before tommorow

 

12.) Other interesting facts: (Not really evidence but interesting)

 

Nas275: "Why did we get a no-update week, then a tiny quest? Are Jagex in the final stages of developing something big? Or did they just run out of stuff to release for the last couple of weeks, I don’t know. The new skill is becoming more and more of a possibility every week – it’s still not really likely, but it might be one of the next few updates, we don’t know"

 

Eamon: "Jagex is luring people in with new f2p/low lvl p2p content (new quest, forum acess, 2x exp) then will come in for the kill with a new skill. Then BAM - they are hooked."

 

Kaylor26: "I was just thinking the same thing. Runescape went quiet and last weeks update wasn't much. It has to be tomorrow." [/hide]

 

QUICK FIND CODE - 16,17,738,60629215

 

Opinions? After reading this I find it very logical. I mean, we just had living rock caverns with cavefish/rocktail, why would they give us ANOTHER fishing update? Jagex and their trickery are at it again.

[predator1030]

For the no twitter updates, wasn't it because one of the mods responsible for posting them went on vacation?

[Aiel]

twitter hint was posted today.

[3PointMan]

twitter hint was posted today.

If you read on he mentions that.

[Ezkaton]

I only read the title......

it will be released more towards the middle of the year

Is what MMG said....... therefore..... we have 2-3 more months before starting to get hyper for it. I will read your finds and adjust my reply accordingly.

 

 

1. yes we did have mod Fnord say that the xp weekend would be before the new skill came out the the weekend would be a way for members to train and "toughen up". However, it does not mean anything for the release of the skill. They did screw up the system, and if they did it on purpose why release a new skill when people "have missed out" on exp? They'll probably do another before the new skill.

 

2. Mod Emilee was on holiday (or *shudders* vacation for those Americans amongst us) However you do address that later.

 

3. It is not needed for the new skill in any way. You read what the mods said and they said it was mostly for new players being able to hit more and stop being discouraged. Also allows them to re-work the combat triangle and some skills. Add new potions, armours, weapons and the like. This will come before the new skill as otherwise why release constitution that might need additional updates like armour etc before the new skill?

 

4. You're inferring too much. it's just like when those infernal mods said "it'll be released in a month with atleast 28 days" and everyone on here and RSOF went hyper for a day thinking it would be in February before remembering after their haste that all months on the calendar have 28 days. And again look at above post. they need to re-work the cb triangle, add new weapons and armour they promised etc before the new skill

 

5. Again too many conclusions jumped to :wall: Just because F2P get an update doesn't mean the new skill :wall: The update was to be an introduction to F2P to counter the major loss of tutorial island. What better way to get new players involved than to put them into a tutorial where they basically just do a bit of skilling and then send them towards a quest that teaches them combat? Thus killing THREE birds with one stone!

 

6. Could be anything to do with fishing. Could be new ways to catch new food. You just don't know yet. Why the hell would they talk about an already established and epic skill before releasing the new one. Jagex are British yes, but they do atleast have some common sense like the rest of us Brits! Fishing guild rework has been in the pipeline for ages.

 

7. Kudos seems to me to pretty much mostly be a member based thing as don't forget you need to do things like find artefacts and crap like that and tell stories and do quests to get kudos. Most of which F2P can't do. So therefore I doubt it's related to the new skill unless they decide to release pretty much everything members to F2P to let them get kudos. Pointless Point ftw?

 

8. Um...... so..... from april to october people stay in more? Yeah?........ ummm, y'know..... does anyone ever look up into that great big blue thing and look at the great massive flaming ball of gases? yes? That's the sun. it comes out between mostly april and october and then goes away during winter. The thing when the sun comes out is called - SUMMER. People go out during summer.

 

9. This is perhaps the only credible point I can't come back on. =D> Congratulate yourself.

 

10. And just because a Jmod doesn't log in doesn't mean the new bloody skill will come out :wall: They don't live in jagex. it is their job to develop stuff and create content not just play the game.

 

 

 

Now..... If it wasn't for my insomnia I wouldn't have written this..... but still..... thanks for helping me kill half an hour and your post :thumbup:

[Mecakoto]

Seems plausible. We'll see tomorrow.

[Gradeskip]

I really hope it's not tomorrow as I have an essay to write. <_<

[qeltar]

I'm extremely confident that we will either get a new skill tomorrow, or we won't.

 

(If I had a nickel for every silly prediction like this that I've read...)

[3PointMan]

I'm extremely confident that we will either get a new skill tomorrow, or we won't.

 

(If I had a nickel for every silly prediction like this that I've read...)

Whats up your [wagon]?

 

Its just a theory. No harm in posting it.

[Mazhar]

I'm getting ready for another f2p quest with a lvl 20 boss tomorrow :thumbsup:

[Pinkbullet3]

I understand your speculation and all, but the more you think about it, the slower time passes...

 

Just keep your mind off "the new skill" and focus on something else. It'll come someday. (Someday.)

 

Unless you're not excited about the new skill, then please continue what you're doing.

[Arch_Tyrant]

I think I remember seeing somewhere a mod saying that all good mysteries come in four (referring to the 'strange power').

If that's the case then I expect another massive 'happening' to come tomorrow and the new skill to come in May.

 

(If I had a nickel for every silly prediction like this that I've read...)

 

This.

[Ezkaton]

I'm extremely confident that we will either get a new skill tomorrow, or we won't.

 

(If I had a nickel for every silly prediction like this that I've read...)

Whats up your [wagon]?

 

Its just a theory. No harm in posting it.

 

If you think he has something up his wagon then read my new edited post, you'll like it :thumbup:

[Omali]

Whats up your [wagon]?

 

Its just a theory. No harm in posting it.

 

This theory has popped up in its own thread at least once a month since Summoning launched, and every month before then. Everything pointed out here:

 

1. It's the perfect time.

2. This update is a hint towards it.

3. The twitter update

4. It is ___ days/months/years after X update

5. Jagex being cryptic.

 

As for #3, is that really evidence? Jagex being too direct with their hint? I've heard that countless times since Jagex started doing hints on Twitter, and every time it was exactly what they said it would be.

 

Jagex sets themselves up for this, and I know they love players speculating, but they pretty much trashed the concept of verbatim back in 2005 when they announced Player Owned Houses in the Behind the Scenes as "be able to sit in chairs," because for years after every ending to every Behind the Scenes was somehow a hint towards something huge, which is why so many people ranted at the end of each month. Jagex would say "We're upgrading the engine to improve performance on lower end machines," and somehow people would turn that into "Upgrading the engine? THAT MUST MEAN KEWL 3D GRAPHX ON A NEW ENGINE!" only to end in miserable disappointment when it turns out that the update was indeed just an engine update for performance.

 

And for the record, the new skill could come out tomorrow and that still wouldn't make the OP right. Someone has called out new skill virtually every week with similar supporting evidence, since the new skill was confirmed. If I tell someone it's going to rain every morning, it doesn't make me a weather man when three weeks later, it rains. Throw enough spaghetti at the fridge, and at least one strand will stick eventually, no matter how poorly the pasta is cooked.

[stonewall337]

O.o Queltar is back...guess he couldn't leave us after all ^.^

 

Well thought out logic doesn't count for much when guessing updates with jagex, except for the CE hints.

[Musky44]

If it's tomorrow, it'll be to counteract World of Warcraft's latest patch.

In all seriousness, I don't think it'll come out tomorrow, even with the given evidence. Don't they usually have development diaries?

[etpelletier]

Jagex wrote somewhere that they intended NOT to make developpment diaries for the new skill. They said it kind of spoiled the surprise with summoning's release a couple years ago

[Wiv]

its just a fishing update Going to go out on a line and apologies about the weight for this weeks RuneScape update hint. We couldnt think of hook to bait you with

 

hook ... >.>

 

bait... >.> fishing terms have fun with new fish/rods blah blah

[Gradeskip]

or could be used to mean they cannot reveal the surprise. :o

[Big_Stingman]

I don't see it happening. I do believe Jagex said it would be more towards the middle of the year. It's not even April yet...Plus, I think that the Easter event would become lost in the new skill. They are probably prepping for the Easter event right now.

 

Who would want to launch a new skill and a holiday event within two weeks? Seems a little too far fetched to me.

[Obtaurian]

I'm still confident that tomorrow is the grand opening of the Strange Power area, replete with new boss monsters.

 

If it's just a new skill . . . meh.

[mister_moocky]

new skil 2mo is seafaring guyz

[Adellund]

I'm extremely confident that we will either get a new skill tomorrow, or we won't.

 

(If I had a nickel for every silly prediction like this that I've read...)

Whats up your [wagon]?

 

Its just a theory. No harm in posting it.

 

 

srsly 3pm. Why don't you just accept this as a free bump? (to the above quoted quoted post) instead of ranting about how *trolls* are invading ? \:D/

[Sirscrap]

I hope skill doesn't come out for a while..I want to finish up my 99 slayer goal.

[hawkeye770]

Jagex taken a chilled week on vacation. Thus limited feedback/response from them.

 

Have you seriously not learnt not to get your hopes up with Jagex?