Born Lucky

[Zaaps1]

(TL;DR at bottom)

 

[hide=Disclaimer]This post contains advanced topics in mathematics and computer science. I certainly am not a master of these subjects and I am not trying to pretend to be. I am simply using what knowledge I do have to draw a conclusion. If there are any important facts I have no considered, please tell me. It makes a word of difference.[/hide]

 

Are some people just born lucky?

 

Let me explain, do you feel that some players just have all the luck in the world? Have you ever met that person who gets whips from abby demons like no one's business? Or that friend who seems to get a godsword hilt every other week? I'm sure you all have and if not, at least know what I'm getting at here.

 

Do you sometimes feel that the game is treating you unfairly?

 

Is it possible that our characters' lives are, to an extent, predestined? Do some players start out with extra luck? Do other players obtain preordained dry-streaks? At first glance, this seems entirely ridiculous. But please, before hitting the flame/troll button, read on.

 

[hide=Introduction to the concept]

In case you don't already know, computers can never really produce "random" sets of numbers in the strictest sense of the word. Yes, when you look at a set of random numbers your graphing calculator throws at you, they might SEEM random, and yes I'm sure if you decided to make a histogram of the numbers it would look approximately evenly distributed. But the simple fact is that computers cannot produce true random numbers. How do they do it? By math, of course!

 

Computers use a fancy and intimidating algorithm to obtain this random set of numbers. However, like almost everything else in math, there must be an input before there can be an output. This is probably a familiar concept to those who have taken any course in statistics, computer science, or just have a solid knowledge of graphing calculators/computers: you must "seed" your computer to some number, which gets put in the fancy algorithm and out comes a desired set of numbers.

 

This, however, presents and interesting problem. Assuming the same algorithm is used and the same bounds are applied (lowest number, highest number, number of numbers to be generated) and the same seeded number is used, two people should get the exact same result.

 

For example, if you had two graphing calculators, you could seed both of them to a certain number. Let's do 5443. (If you are deciding to follow along, enter "5443" and press STO>. Go to Math->PRB->rand, press enter) Then if you were to generate a random set of numbers on each (Math->PRB->randInt, type "0,9,4", press enter. This tells the calculator to pick 4 numbers between 0-9), you would get the same set on both calculators. For those following along, I got {0, 6, 6, 0}. The flaw with this example, however, is that if you have previously seeded either calculator to 5443, you'd get a different result. The first set generated by each calculator to a seeded number would be the same (so if you got the set of, say, {10, 43, 65, 6} the second time on a result, the second time on any calculator would be the same).

 

While I don't expect Jagex to have a whole bunch of TI-84s plugged into their servers, I can't imagine their approach to RNGs being much different. Where am I going with this?[/hide]

 

[hide=Application in Runescape]

Obviously, whenever you kill a monster for a drop, or complete a treasure trail, or doing anything else that's supposed to have a "random" result, Jagex most likely runs an algorithm such as the one in your graphing calculator to pull out a number. This number is then translated into your drop, TT reward, etc. This would be more complicated with varying drop rates, 100% rewards, etc., but you get the picture.

 

Now if you were Jagex, would you want to reseed every player's input number every time they kill a monster? I should think not. More likely, when you created your account, you received an identification number. This number was then used to produce a random number everything Jagex needed to give you one.

 

What does this mean? Let's try another example. Let's say when your account was created, you were assigned the number 85856 (85856->rand). Seed your calculator to this. Now let's say you go and decide to kill Tormented Demons. Let's say, for argument's sake, they have a .15 chance of dropping dragon claws. So now get a random list of 25 numbers between 0-99 (randInt(0,99,25), for those using a calculator). You'll get a list of numbers. For argument's sake, let's assume the list below if what you would get (I know it's different).

 

{99, 20, 79, 95, 22, 36, 0, 93, 10, 0, 54, 85, 97, 27, 27, 12, 5, 72, 1, 42, 30, 97, 2, 83, 61}

 

Now, since d claws have a .15 chance of being dropped, let's say that any number you get between 0-14 would result in you getting claws. Look at the numbers you got. Even before you could kill a Tormented Demon, you were GUARANTEED d claws on the 7th kill. You'll get back to back claws on the 9th and 10th kills. You'll get 4 more claws before the end of your 25 demon killstreak. Do you see what I'm getting at here?

 

Of course, this simulation has a number of problems.

 

1. The entire "2 roulette wheels" theory would complicate things, but it would not change the core essence of the concept: your drops are predetermined.

2. Jagex would not create an entire set but rather generate each number individually. This would change the instance in our specific example, but again, it does not change the core idea of the concept. Even if Jagex did a set of 1 number between 0-99 and just did that after every kill, the same results would hold. This is because on any n-th set generated, it is still impacted by the seed number (as long as that number has not been changed). In short, this fact changes nothing.[/hide]

 

[hide=Significance]

All things considered though, look at the big picture. Let's assume d claws had a .004 chance of being dropped (1/250). How would you approach this? Again, considering the fact that Problem #2 above doesn't change the point being proven, do a random set of, say, 50 numbers (killing 50 demons) between 0-999. Numbers between 0-3 would result in claws being dropped. Now it isn't very likely, but isn't it POSSIBLE that your set begins: {3, 2, 0, 3, 5, 355, 498...}?

 

What does that mean?

 

That means before you ever even equip your bronze dagger in tutorial island (or whatever those newbies do nowadays), you are GUARANTEED 4 claw drops for your first 4 kills!

 

Of course, if you were assigned any other number, you would not get this (not entirely true, as other numbers can yield similar results, but the chance is very low, so let's just accept this). Thus, could you not make the argument that this player was born lucky?

 

That is to say, his luck with drops was determined before it ever mattered.

 

This concept can extend to anything that relies on RNGs in the game. Treasure Trials, Farming, perhaps even stuff as trivial as pickpocketing success.

 

Of course, a player will most likely approach the mean as more and more numbers are generated, but then again, a player could be in one of the few outliers that aren't. Say the mean drop rate of claws are 1/250 and is normally distributed (and for RNGs, this should be true). While I cannot give precise numbers as I do not know the standard deviation of drop rates, it's safe to assume that the upper and lower reaches will have skewed drop rates. Let's say, for argument's sake, the standard deviation was 100. That means for 2.5% of players (a rather large number if you think about it) will have drop rates at approximately 1/450. Likewise, 2.5% of players will have a drop rate of 1/50, which is extraordinarily common. To put that into perspective, if some can kill 35 demons per hour, you'd make 23.1m per hour, assuming 33m claws. This is from claws alone, not even considering other drops!

 

So why aren't the prices of claws plummeting? Two things to consider, the frequency some people have is balanced by the rarity that other people experience due to their seed numbers. This sure explains my massive dry streak at tormented demons! Second, while 2.5% of the total population is a LOT of people, remember that out of that 2.5%, you can only consider people who can actually kill tormented demons. From that population, to get the 23.1m/hr rate, you also need to have maxed stats, or near-maxed stats. Consider, then, the amount of people who are in 2.5% of the total RS population, AND can kill TDS, AND are maxed. The number suddenly seems a lot smaller.

 

Of course, this entire discussion is on an extremely simple basis. I doubt Jagex's RNG is as simple as I have made it out to be. Like I've said a million times though, this does not change the point I am trying to make.

 

For example, algorithms are not the only ways to make random numbers on a computer. There are many other ways, but the fact remains that the computer is NEVER perfectly random and therefore the above consequences are ALWAYS present. All that changes is the extent.[/hide]

 

 

TL;DR

 

To bring this monster of a post together: due to the innate imperfection computers have, "random" events, such as Treasure Trials and monster drops, can actually be biased from player to player.

[amitoz]

 

 

Are some people just born lucky?

 

Let me explain, do you feel that some players just have all the luck in the world?

No. All things are random. No value of predetermined luck is given, or could be given, to any player; in my opinion.

[Slayer_Jesse]

ill just leave this here....

 

Epileptic Trees

[ghjkl]

I would imagine that jagex seeds monster drops for a particular monster, not a player, or else stuff will get complicated using lootshare.

[Grimy_Bunyip]

 

 

 

Are some people just born lucky?

 

Let me explain, do you feel that some players just have all the luck in the world?

No. All things are random. No value of predetermined luck is given, or could be given, to any player; in my opinion.

 

ill just leave this here....

 

Epileptic Trees

 

aw come'on guys, that's the lazy boring answer.

but no I don't think jagex would implement an ID number that persists throughout your RS career.

There's just too many places jagex could trawl random numbers.

Like log in time or total experience or something.

 

Anyways aren't there random number generators that work on atmospheric data now?

[No_99_Melee]

In all honesty I'm sure Jagex's algorithms are a little more advanced than my TI graphing calculator when it comes to a random number generator. Also there is no possible way of determining Jagex's system of placing monster drops. For all we know invisible mods could be sitting beside each boss monster and when they see a person they like they make that monster drop its rare drop. Also it would be much easier for Jagex to program the random number generator with the boss monster instead of the player seeing as there is only one boss monster and there are millions of players.

[amitoz]

 

 

 

Are some people just born lucky?

 

Let me explain, do you feel that some players just have all the luck in the world?

No. All things are random. No value of predetermined luck is given, or could be given, to any player; in my opinion.

 

ill just leave this here....

 

Epileptic Trees

 

aw come'on guys, that's the lazy boring answer.

but no I don't think jagex would implement an ID number that persists throughout your RS career.

There's just too many places jagex could trawl random numbers.

Like log in time or total experience or something.

 

Anyways aren't there random number generators that work on atmospheric data now?

 

U r Bore.

[Grimy_Bunyip]

 

 

 

Are some people just born lucky?

 

Let me explain, do you feel that some players just have all the luck in the world?

No. All things are random. No value of predetermined luck is given, or could be given, to any player; in my opinion.

 

ill just leave this here....

 

Epileptic Trees

 

aw come'on guys, that's the lazy boring answer.

but no I don't think jagex would implement an ID number that persists throughout your RS career.

There's just too many places jagex could trawl random numbers.

Like log in time or total experience or something.

 

Anyways aren't there random number generators that work on atmospheric data now?

 

U r Bore.

I r Bore-N lucky

[TheNumberPi]

The basic idea that computers can't actually generate random numbers is correct, but this doesn't mean your fate is predetermined. First, the server probably uses one RNG for everybody, rather than one RNG per character. That means what other people do and the order affects what numbers you roll. Since there are ~1000 players on any server, that means which roll of the RNG you get is effectively random due to network latency and such. If you click a few milliseconds later, you'd get a different roll. Second, when the server first boots up and creates a RNG, the seed (generally) isn't fixed. Usually it's set to something reasonably random like the time in nanoseconds. Since booting times aren't accurate to nanosecond precision, this is also pretty much random.

 

TLDR: Even though the RNG is deterministic, other things that affect your luck are random, so your fate isn't totally predetermined.

[Zaaps1]

 

 

Are some people just born lucky?

 

Let me explain, do you feel that some players just have all the luck in the world?

No. All things are random. No value of predetermined luck is given, or could be given, to any player; in my opinion.

 

 

ill just leave this here....

 

Epileptic Trees

 

Ok, I know it's a very ridiculous thing at first, but did you guys bother to read at all? There's no way you read through all of that in 2-3 minutes, and posting after only reading less than half of what I had to say (and none of my core points) is no way to responsibly post. I'm not trying to sound harsh or mean here, but c'mon, this is a little disappointing.

 

I would imagine that jagex seeds monster drops for a particular monster, not a player, or else stuff will get complicated using lootshare.

 

That's a good point, although I could see it working. If you had each player generate a drop, then if it was one of the ones that can be impacted by lootshare, just randomly allocate it from there.

 

 

but no I don't think jagex would implement an ID number that persists throughout your RS career.

There's just too many places jagex could trawl random numbers.

Like log in time or total experience or something.

 

Anyways aren't there random number generators that work on atmospheric data now?

 

Yes I thought that Jagex using just one would be a little irresponsible of them as well. Yet no matter what they use, how often could they possibly change it? At some point, they are giving you a number that will dictate how you play for an alloted amount of time before they change it.

 

I've heard of atmospheric data as well, and since it started use before RSC, it may very well be that Jagex is doing that. However, I'm not entirely sure how that works, although I do recall reading that it isn't perfect as well. If anyone who posts can explain this, please do.

[amitoz]

In all honesty I'm sure Jagex's algorithms are a little more advanced than my TI graphing calculator when it comes to a random number generator. Also there is no possible way of determining Jagex's system of placing monster drops. For all we know invisible mods could be sitting beside each boss monster and when they see a person they like they make that monster drop its rare drop. Also it would be much easier for Jagex to program the random number generator with the boss monster instead of the player seeing as there is only one boss monster and there are millions of players.

 

Makes sense.

 

 

 

Are some people just born lucky?

 

Let me explain, do you feel that some players just have all the luck in the world?

No. All things are random. No value of predetermined luck is given, or could be given, to any player; in my opinion.

 

ill just leave this here....

 

Epileptic Trees

 

aw come'on guys, that's the lazy boring answer.

but no I don't think jagex would implement an ID number that persists throughout your RS career.

There's just too many places jagex could trawl random numbers.

Like log in time or total experience or something.

 

Anyways aren't there random number generators that work on atmospheric data now?

 

U r Bore.

I r Bore-N lucky

LOL. (I literally did laugh out loud)

[pulli23]

http://www.xkcd.com/831/ Especially the alt-text, shows something similar

[Zaaps1]

The basic idea that computers can't actually generate random numbers is correct, but this doesn't mean your fate is predetermined. First, the server probably uses one RNG for everybody, rather than one RNG per character. That means what other people do and the order affects what numbers you roll. Since there are ~1000 players on any server, that means which roll of the RNG you get is effectively random due to network latency and such. If you click a few milliseconds later, you'd get a different roll. Second, when the server first boots up and creates a RNG, the seed (generally) isn't fixed. Usually it's set to something reasonably random like the time in nanoseconds. Since booting times aren't accurate to nanosecond precision, this is also pretty much random.

 

TLDR: Even though the RNG is deterministic, other things that affect your luck are random, so your fate isn't totally predetermined.

 

That may be, but it rises new questions.

 

Wouldn't that mean that, for example, the 13th person to kill a TD on world 2 is guaranteed claws, or something like that?

[anonymouse_]

tl;dr

no such thing as luck

[Myweponsg00d]

What we percieve as "luck" is our instantaneous 4th dimensional observation of a cross-section of 5 dimensional space. If you want to start improving your luck, visualize yourself getting all of the things you want. You might just be lucky enough to move yourself across 5th dimensional spacetime and land yourself a 3a druid wreath instead of a dragon mask. Studies show that most people who would be considered "lucky" have been born with the ability to visualize themselves attaining what they want.

[Zaaps1]

In all honesty I'm sure Jagex's algorithms are a little more advanced than my TI graphing calculator when it comes to a random number generator. Also there is no possible way of determining Jagex's system of placing monster drops. For all we know invisible mods could be sitting beside each boss monster and when they see a person they like they make that monster drop its rare drop. Also it would be much easier for Jagex to program the random number generator with the boss monster instead of the player seeing as there is only one boss monster and there are millions of players.

 

Also a very good point.

 

However, we do have reason to believe Jagex uses RNG methods, since it's so much easier than the invisible mods. While we aren't 100% sure, I think we can say with some confidence that our drops aren't given arbitrarily.

 

On the boss monster point, that would lead to the same question as my last post.

[TheNumberPi]

The basic idea that computers can't actually generate random numbers is correct, but this doesn't mean your fate is predetermined. First, the server probably uses one RNG for everybody, rather than one RNG per character. That means what other people do and the order affects what numbers you roll. Since there are ~1000 players on any server, that means which roll of the RNG you get is effectively random due to network latency and such. If you click a few milliseconds later, you'd get a different roll. Second, when the server first boots up and creates a RNG, the seed (generally) isn't fixed. Usually it's set to something reasonably random like the time in nanoseconds. Since booting times aren't accurate to nanosecond precision, this is also pretty much random.

 

TLDR: Even though the RNG is deterministic, other things that affect your luck are random, so your fate isn't totally predetermined.

 

That may be, but it rises new questions.

 

Wouldn't that mean that, for example, the 13th person to kill a TD on world 2 is guaranteed claws, or something like that?

Nope.

1. The initial seed is pretty much random (Java's new java.util.Random() uses the time in ms)
   
2. The exact time you started killing the TD is subject to human randomness, so if someone does something requiring the RNG within that time, you get a different number.
   
3. If jagex used fixed seeds and used a different RNG per monster, then you're right.
   
4. Ignoring the random sequence of commands sent by players, the sequence of events would be predetermined after the seed selection.
   

Edited December 14, 2010 by TheNumberPi

[No_99_Melee]

Wouldn't that mean that, for example, the 13th person to kill a TD on world 2 is guaranteed claws, or something like that?

 

The RNG shouldn't be permanently determined. Instead it is rerolled each time.

[The Observer]

Before I approach this, let's define 'luck'. Can be defined any number of ways, but let's limit it down to two definitions. Luck, meaning the more likely occurrence that a specific, positive result will occur more often and luck meaning that a positive result has occurred more often. Why the division? They are two entirely different concepts: the cause and the effect.

 

Now first, luck being the influence of a more likely positive result. It can be argued that it's evident in biology. If someone has better chromosomes for example, they can have a better attitude, body structure, skills, etc. Thus, giving them a more likely chance of receiving positive feedback from the world. However, as I said it's debatable. For example, there is influence from the parents. If they were strong biologically then there would obviously be somewhat of an influence on how well the end result will be. So, how far does the extent of luck fair in this example?

 

In my opinion, the second definition I pointed out seems more likely. Forgive me, but I find it very unlikely that an invisible force can possibly affect a result, which is why I define it more in the direction of the result of good fortune.I do believe that there is some bias however when it comes to this though. Just think, it's virtually impossible to find something that would make it completely fair for everyone unless you receive something in a set amount of kills, eg. 250 for dragon claws. The reason why it's unfair is because there are some form of external forces that can affect a result. When you roll a dice for example, the wind might push it to a different angle and the way you roll it will obviously influence the result as well. With the way Jagex has it, electronically using mathematics, yes, there can be flaws to it (as far as we know) just as there are flaws to the system you presented considering no system would truly be perfect. But there are less flaws than the dice example.

 

But are we predetermined from account creation? I don't believe so. It's just an occurrence that happens because it does, not because of any 'predetermined number'. The thing is, it's a very difficult concept to grasp because when we look at statistics and how rare something is, we tend to stray more towards external influences rather than just a normal occurrence, a rare one I might add, but normal. If any influences does occur however it's because of factors happening during what is happening, not really because of what's happening before.

 

Forgive me if my thoughts are pieced together very messily but trying to finish this up quickly before I go out.

[Zaaps1]

Wouldn't that mean that, for example, the 13th person to kill a TD on world 2 is guaranteed claws, or something like that?

 

The RNG shouldn't be permanently determined. Instead it is rerolled each time.

 

But that's the thing though, unless the seed number is changed every time, the "on the n-th of X, Y will happen" would hold true.

 

And even if the seed number WAS changed, it would have to be completely independent from the RNG produced. Which would mean at least doubling the work Jagex's servers have to do.

[pulli23]

Wouldn't that mean that, for example, the 13th person to kill a TD on world 2 is guaranteed claws, or something like that?

 

The RNG shouldn't be permanently determined. Instead it is rerolled each time.

 

But that's the thing though, unless the seed number is changed every time, the "on the n-th of X, Y will happen" would hold true.

 

And even if the seed number WAS changed, it would have to be completely independent from the RNG produced. Which would mean at least doubling the work Jagex's servers have to do.

The starting seed and the following numbers are completely independend in any random number generator:

from any sequence it is impossible to calculate the next number, nor the previous, unless you know exactly the whole sequence.

 

May I strongly suggest looking up the mathematical field before starting a discussion. It is quite embarashing what I read here! You clearly didn't get the grasp of how pseudo random number generators work. Please do a research before starting such a thing (or at the very least read wikipedia about several algorithms)

[TheNumberPi]

<snip>

The starting seed and the following numbers are completely independend in any random number generator:

from any sequence it is impossible to calculate the next number, nor the previous, unless you know exactly the whole sequence.

The following numbers are completely determined by the starting seed. Given the seed, all subsequent numbers are predetermined. Whether it's practical to calculate the next number given previous numbers depends on the specific RNG algorithm. The output of a Mersenne twister (used in some C++ implementations) can be predicted after observing just 624 numbers. (The period is much longer). On the other hand, some cryptographically secure RNGs require computational power comparable to brute force decryption to predict. However, you still don't need the whole sequence to predict the output.

[IHasChicken]

Wouldn't that mean that, for example, the 13th person to kill a TD on world 2 is guaranteed claws, or something like that?

 

The RNG shouldn't be permanently determined. Instead it is rerolled each time.

 

But that's the thing though, unless the seed number is changed every time, the "on the n-th of X, Y will happen" would hold true.

 

And even if the seed number WAS changed, it would have to be completely independent from the RNG produced. Which would mean at least doubling the work Jagex's servers have to do.

The starting seed and the following numbers are completely independend in any random number generator:

from any sequence it is impossible to calculate the next number, nor the previous, unless you know exactly the whole sequence.

 

May I strongly suggest looking up the mathematical field before starting a discussion. It is quite embarashing what I read here! You clearly didn't get the grasp of how pseudo random number generators work. Please do a research before starting such a thing (or at the very least read wikipedia about several algorithms)

 

I'm sure he's done "a research" to produce this.

 

Anyway, this is all theoretical. We have no idea about how, when, and who Jagex's seeding processes affect. It's just too hard to find out.

 

For all we know, the entire process could be stochastic and have no rule at all (per se.)

[stonewall337]

I believe its possible. I have average luck at TDS, great luck @ dks, and horrible luck at barrows (400+ chests 5 items) and terrible luck at corp seen 1 sigil in hundreds of hours.

[Dragonlordjl]

I've been a firm believer for a long time that each account has a hidden "luck" variable. Some of my friends CONSISTENTLY get good drops with very little effort, whereas I CONSISTENTLY have to really struggle to get any good drops. There are some people who seem to consistently get claw drops ever 50-100 kills... It took me 600+ solos to get my first and only solo claws, and I've done many more since then without anything to show for it but some crappy rune items and blue charms.