Note to mods: Yes, the highly controversial thread is back!

 

The sole reason why this thread was locked before was, I believe, to debate which granted itself to arguing mindlessly. I/f we all cut down on this, there is no reason for this thread to be locked, for it is a highly viable topic to discuss.

 

Thank you.

 

 

Random drops are random; or are they?

 

Thanks to everyone who contributed to this thread. :mrgreen:

 

 

Disclaimer: My opinion on this matter is simply my opinion, backed with my own sense of experience throughout the years as I have played the game.

 

I have always tried to determine how drop rates are given in a game such as RuneScape, whether they are as a part of the player's pre-determined luck, or as a pre-determined drop rate, or both. Personally, I do not think players have a "luck" constant, per-sae, because I think that's immorally biased (although that hasn't stopped Jagex before), and it would be too much to give each player a set constant to multiply their drop rate by. Therefore, I think that Each individual drop, be it Draconic Visage, Abyssal Whip, or the sort, has an individual drop value, whereas if any player in RS kills said monster, It's droprate counter is added upon. Let's take the example of Abyssal demons, saying perhaps the chance they will drop an Abyssal Whip is 1/8000 (I made that number up, you damn trolls <3). Now, my theory is that if ANYONE on ANY world kills an abyssal demon, the dropcounter raises. Now, If 100 Abby Demons are killed in 5 minutes collectively on all worlds, The TOTAL Droprate counter raises by 100. Once that dropcounter hits 8000, the person who killed that 8000th Abby Demon gets the whip drop, and the counter is reset.

 

I've had personal experience with that, as have my friends. I should mention that once Jagex releases a patch (update), the counter gets reset by default to one less than that of the max, in some cases; whether by glitch or severe miscoding, I do not know. This used to happen, but I could not for the life of me reproduce it now. Me and my friends would do GWD religiously when it came out. Whenever there was an update, we had the theory implemented in our heads that whoever kills Kree'arra right after the update will get an Armadyl Hilt right away, for it was the first kill after an update. This theory worked around 65% of the time. That's a VERY high percentile, if you ask me. However, when we try and reproduce that today, it ceases to work, even after EXTENSIVE testing. Perhaps this was just the glitch with the droprate resetting to 7999/8000 instead of 0/8000 after each update, but perhaps this is just me.

 

Another explanation for getting 2 drops simultaneously:

No /thread at all, it is possible. If I kill an abyssal demon, and it drops a whip, let's say the drop rate is 1/1000 just to make it easy, and between the one I killed and the next I killed another 999 people kill one, then I get the 1000th kill and another whip which is back to back for me although 999 people killed one inbetween.

 

And for the people who think there is a wheel or "roulette", there isn't, it's a simple iconic metaphor Jagex uses to explain in visuals to noobs how the drops "supposedly" work. More eloquently described here:

That being said, it was mainly an attack at some misinformed people here who believe there's such a thing as a "wheel" or a "roulette" on RuneScape. There isn't. And one's entire argument is voided if they ever claim there is. This "roulette" is basically nothing more than an illussion that'd make things seem random, and that's what I was trying to say.

 

Computers can't "randomly" generate numbers. No matter what, it is slightly biased no matter what; in which it has to follow a set formula or a set of formulae that will generate that random number. This is what my theory coincides with, better explained here:

Because there is no wheel. When looking at any computer that produces random numbers, be it a TI-calculator or a world renowned e-lottery, there's always a Random Number Generator. While one can say that something looks 'random' at face value, delving deeper reveals us that there's always a RNG. And, as much as people may dislike it, you can manipulate it if you know what makes it tick. While RuneScape drop ratio may be represented or expressed as a wheel producing random numbers, it simply isn't and cannot be true from an digital point of view.

 

Unless Jagex has a genuine wheel at their office that is spun each time something is killed, random numbers in RuneScape will never be truly random. A wheel/roulette may be used to dumb it down for the everyday person to understand, but anyone involved with digital mechanisms can vouch for this: there are no such things as random numbers when it comes to computers.

 

 

I believe there's only one list, which was out of a said number (/8000, for example). When the server reset, back then, it made the default drop count to one less than max, or 7999/8000, instead of 0/8000. Therefore, with me being unable to reproduce it any longer, I do believe they have defaulted to 0/8000, instead of 7999/8000. Therefore, I believe that the list wasn't duplicate, but rather a glitch on the same one list, for that one drop of the Hilt. Hope this clears things up.

 

And a simple formula to help visualize my theory easier:

I said that if after an update, drops are determined with "(0+n)/x" wheres x is the predetermined number which must be fulfilled, then n is every kill gotten after an update. Very simple but simply put it is easier to see. This formula is reset once n=x. This formula used to be "[(x-1)+n]/x =D" instead of "(0+n)/x = D" whereas D is the drop of a specific item.

 

Why the wheel theory is not a viable explanation:

http://forum.tip.it/topic/242175-ring-of-wealth-explained/

 

 

Perhaps they use a wheel sort of like this for drops? The thread above goes into detail about how the ring of wealth works, maybe that would make more sense than a "theory" such as this.

That doesn't make sense to me, nor should it to anyone who actually sees how numbers are generated. Unless if Jagex physically spins a wheel for every kill, then again for the drop (mind you that wheel must be unbaised physically [with equal weight on every side, perfectly symmetrical, which is not possible] and also that spin must be consistent constantly), would be the only viable explanation for a truly "random" number generator. All other numbers are pre-determined, no matter how minute this bias is.

 

Since this number generating(with a RNG) relies on a formula, or more probably a set of formulae (so it's harder to crack), it is not COMPLETELY random, and therefore, since the wheel theory IS COMPLETELY random, the two can not correlate.

 

Another piece of evidence that the wheel theory CAN NOT and IS NOT true:

 

There are two principal methods used to generate random numbers. One measures some physical phenomenon that is expected to be random and then compensates for possible biases in the measurement process. The other uses computational algorithms that produce long sequences of apparently random results, which are in fact completely determined by a shorter initial value, known as a seed or key. The latter type are often called pseudorandom number generators.

 

^Wikipedia

 

The number generator used by RS is a pseudoorandom number generator; which you even stated could not have been able to be replaced by 2010. Obviously, since it could not have been implemented since, RS still relies on this pseudorandom generator which is not 100% completely random, allowing you to derive at least some sort of equation for which to log drops. How can RS have 100% a completely random RNG without it being even created since 2010, and not even being implemented since then? It can't, and therefore this wheel theory is nothing more than a visual for people to comparitively speak of whilst not knowing how RNGs work.

 

------------------------------

 

Ts_Stormrage's (of the Tip.It Editorial Panel) opinions on my theory:

I 100% support the theory.

 

It is well explained, with some circumstantial evidence, and it's not complicated to understand that this WOULD be the way things work...

 

At least, it isn't complicated for the people that understand the impossibility of generating TRULY random numbers without some machine hooked up to a geigercounter near a piece of plutonium...

 

That said; its a theory... There is no doubt in my mind that we'll never get to the bottom of this, because jagex is (with good reason) not going to let us poke around their code...

 

Another poster's opinion:

I agree with this theory for the most part, as I only know simple things about computer programming, but I do know enough that it is impossible for computers to be completely random. There is always a formula that produces the computer's "randomness". Now Jagex may have said that they do have a roulette wheel system, the system they may actually implement may just resemble one because each item on the drop tables could possibly carry some sort of weight over each other, but then again this is something we can never prove unless Jagex gives us their code, which they won't.

 

This'll be all the farther I get into this, because I've never actually sat down and tried to figure any of this out.

 

But all in all, I agree with the theory for the most part.

 

Also another note on the RNG-- the supposed RNG could not be used to determine drops for RS, because firstly, those drops have weightings, which makes them not random, and also, even if they weren't weighted, the RNG is not 100% random in and of itself. What everyone states of these back-to-back drops rely on the use of a RNG, which can NOT exist as a determiner of drops.

 

 

Now, do you agree with this theory, disagree, or have your own thoughts on the matter?

 

Speculations? Discuss. :wink:

Edited January 23, 201115 yr by amitoz

Adding poll.

One of the reasons the last thread got locked is quoting people out of context, which you still haven't corrected.

 

Aside from that, your theory has no proof and no complete form(it only really covers rare drops, which aren't specified), and the original version has been proven wrong with back to back very rare drop pictures.

 

Aside from that, the whole theory is the work of a loonatic and as long as anyone proves the 'random' drop theory wrong(which has been mentioned by jagex), it's the current best and right understanding of drops in runescape.

One of the reasons the last thread got locked is quoting people out of context, which you still haven't corrected.

 

Aside from that, your theory has no proof and no complete form(it only really covers rare drops, which aren't specified), and the original version has been proven wrong with back to back very rare drop pictures.

 

Aside from that, the whole theory is the work of a loonatic and as long as anyone proves the 'random' drop theory wrong(which has been mentioned by jagex), it's the current best and right understanding of drops in runescape.

My memory fails me; please provide this 'proof' of disputing said theory.

 

Also, these quotes are completely viable and in complete context, they're intentional meanings have no been altered to as what the original author meant.

Hmmm... Long opinion or short opinion?

Well...

 

 

Everyone give Amitoz a nice welcome back?

 

 

Or do we come at him with torches and pitchforks?

Im srry for not reading your entire post, but:

A friend of mine jsut got b2b claws. No way could that many TD's have been killed in the time between the 2 kills.

Also, alot of people know about Markwright's almost b2b Divine sigils.

xpx is correct. Numismaster was extremely displeased when he was quoted on the first post of the previous thread (see below) and this quoting out of context was one of the reasons that the thread was locked. As such, I have removed the quote from the first post.

 

I would like to make one final comment on this thread.

 

 

I do not support the OP's theory nor his conduct on this thread! :thumbdown:

 

 

My statement (as quoted on the OP's original post) is completely out of context and was solely directed to the intelligent and reasonable arguments presented AGAINST the OP's theory.

 

 

I respectfully request my statement to be removed from the front post.

 

 

Regardless if that happens or not, I am officially withdrawing from this pointless debate.

 

If this thread follows the same direction of the previous thread, it will also be locked.

 

And as a note to people who disagree with this theory: this thread will only survive as long as you continue to bump it. If it gets to a point where you've said all that you need to say and you're arguing in circles, stop posting so the thread can die naturally.

Well...

 

 

Everyone give Amitoz a nice welcome back?

 

 

Or do we come at him with torches and pitchforks?

 

Torches and Pitchforks please.

Hmm...this is scientology all over again....and I personally have to refuse this logic, and return the ball with this question: if your logic is true, then 1- why tell anyone about it, and 2- how many rare items have you obtained using it? My guess to these is 1- you're trying to prove something false, and 2- 0. Oh, and please don't quote me. I don't want you to turn my quotes into something that actually supports this bad idea...

There are atleast two quotes i can see that are out of context, originally there to disagree with you, turned into ones that support the thread.

 

Back to back bandos/armadyl hilts prove that it's impossible that there is a running drop counter, as it's impossible for 600 bosses to be killed within 2 minutes. Aside from that, when proposing a new theory, you need to prove it, not the other way around. You haven't posted even anything that would dispute the random drop theory, or any way to prove your theory correct, neither an understandable description of the theory.

There are atleast two quotes i can see that are out of context, originally there to disagree with you, turned into ones that support the thread.

 

Back to back bandos/armadyl hilts prove that it's impossible that there is a running drop counter, as it's impossible for 600 bosses to be killed within 2 minutes. Aside from that, when proposing a new theory, you need to prove it, not the other way around. You haven't posted even anything that would dispute the random drop theory, or any way to prove your theory correct, neither an understandable description of the theory.

If you would have read the whole post, there is a large section which states that the supposed RNG could not be used to determine drops for RS, because firstly, those drops have weightings, which makes them not random, and also, even if they weren't weighted, the RNG is not 100% random in and of itself. What everyone states of these back-to-back drops rely on the use of a RNG, which can NOT exist.

I completely disagree with you, however I have no idea how Jagex does it.

 

I designs games for a living, and if it were me, I would simply use a random number generator which picks from a list of items. Something that I've always wondered is when is the drops spawned. Are they spawned when a monster spawns, and the linked with that gameObject, or are they spawned at the occurrence of death. If it were me, I would spawn it when the monster was generated.

 

There is so many ways Jagex could do it. One way we often trick gamers into thinking something is "killed" is simply by making it invisible, ie turning off it's renderer. This is a bad idea for bigger games though, as gameObjects and preFabs take up memory and by simply making them disappear, it would most likely be less efficient.

 

You're idea of keeping a count of every object drop makes no sense. 1. it would require multiple multiple calls to a database, and that's just dumb. The two wheel theory is most likely what does happens, and would be easiest to program. In fact, I'll do it quickly right here.

dropID = random(min,max + 1);
if ( dropID < max )
    dropCommonIteml();
else
    gotoRareWheel();

 

look at that. code for a simple drop spawn system done in 5 lines of code. Jagex's could be more complicated than this, but it likely isn't.

And why can't it exist amitoz? Your theory can be busted with any other theory claiming yours is false, and you'd be unable to stop'm. That and nearly every quote there is probably ripped out of a dr.seuss book. Well, you know what? I won't agree on a boat, I won't agree on a float. I won't agree on a dam, and this whole theory is green eggs and ham!

I completely disagree with you, however I have no idea how Jagex does it.

 

I designs games for a living, and if it were me, I would simply use a random number generator which picks from a list of items. Something that I've always wondered is when is the drops spawned. Are they spawned when a monster spawns, and the linked with that gameObject, or are they spawned at the occurrence of death. If it were me, I would spawn it when the monster was generated.

 

There is so many ways Jagex could do it. One way we often trick gamers into thinking something is "killed" is simply by making it invisible, ie turning off it's renderer. This is a bad idea for bigger games though, as gameObjects and preFabs take up memory and by simply making them disappear, it would most likely be less efficient.

 

You're idea of keeping a count of every object drop makes no sense. 1. it would require multiple multiple calls to a database, and that's just dumb. The two wheel theory is most likely what does happens, and would be easiest to program. In fact, I'll do it quickly right here.

dropID = random(min,max + 1);
if ( dropID < max + 1)
    gotoCommonWheel();
else
    gotoRareWheel();

 

look at that. code for a simple drop spawn system done in 5 lines of code. Jagex's could be more complicated than this, but it likely isn't.

 

 

I totally agree with you, database calls are expensive as well and take up a lot of memory. Jagex has said that on one day like a million chickens were killed. Why would they needlessly create something that would require them to have faster database servers.

And why can't it exist amitoz? Your theory can be busted with any other theory claiming yours is false, and you'd be unable to stop'm. That and nearly every quote there is probably ripped out of a dr.seuss book. Well, you know what? I won't agree on a boat, I won't agree on a float. I won't agree on a dam, and this whole theory is green eggs and ham!

 

 

+1

If you would have read the whole post, there is a large section which states that the supposed RNG could not be used to determine drops for RS, because firstly, those drops have weightings, which makes them not random, and also, even if they weren't weighted, the RNG is not 100% random in and of itself. What everyone states of these back-to-back drops rely on the use of a RNG, which can NOT exist.

You see, that's where you are going wrong. The fact that computer optimized RNGs can't deliver true randomness does not limit their use in the game unless you know how the RNG works. True random numbers aren't needed to run a RNG based drop system. Go to school, kid.

There are atleast two quotes i can see that are out of context, originally there to disagree with you, turned into ones that support the thread.

 

Back to back bandos/armadyl hilts prove that it's impossible that there is a running drop counter, as it's impossible for 600 bosses to be killed within 2 minutes. Aside from that, when proposing a new theory, you need to prove it, not the other way around. You haven't posted even anything that would dispute the random drop theory, or any way to prove your theory correct, neither an understandable description of the theory.

If you would have read the whole post, there is a large section which states that the supposed RNG could not be used to determine drops for RS, because firstly, those drops have weightings, which makes them not random, and also, even if they weren't weighted, the RNG is not 100% random in and of itself. What everyone states of these back-to-back drops rely on the use of a RNG, which can NOT exist.

 

And yet, people have shown time and time again that back to back drops of a very rare item HAS happened. Even if someone got two hilts 5 kills apart it would still disprove your theory.

 

Stop wasting your time trying to prove something that clearly holds no credibility.

There are atleast two quotes i can see that are out of context, originally there to disagree with you, turned into ones that support the thread.

 

Back to back bandos/armadyl hilts prove that it's impossible that there is a running drop counter, as it's impossible for 600 bosses to be killed within 2 minutes. Aside from that, when proposing a new theory, you need to prove it, not the other way around. You haven't posted even anything that would dispute the random drop theory, or any way to prove your theory correct, neither an understandable description of the theory.

If you would have read the whole post, there is a large section which states that the supposed RNG could not be used to determine drops for RS, because firstly, those drops have weightings, which makes them not random, and also, even if they weren't weighted, the RNG is not 100% random in and of itself. What everyone states of these back-to-back drops rely on the use of a RNG, which can NOT exist.

 

It's not hard to weight things. Make the min value 0 and the max value 100.

0 = "nothing"
1 through 5 = "someDrop"//5% drop rate
6 through 20 = "someOtherDrop"//15% drop rate...etc

 

as you can see, you need to just let go and accept the fact that the only way to actually know would be to see the source, which no one will. So that is probably why this thread was locked.

Lol...may as well see if this works:

 

My theory is no good!

 

 

See how easy it is to misuse quoting people? Next time, screenie their quote in runescape, for better evidence

I completely disagree with you, however I have no idea how Jagex does it.

 

I designs games for a living, and if it were me, I would simply use a random number generator which picks from a list of items. Something that I've always wondered is when is the drops spawned. Are they spawned when a monster spawns, and the linked with that gameObject, or are they spawned at the occurrence of death. If it were me, I would spawn it when the monster was generated.

 

There is so many ways Jagex could do it. One way we often trick gamers into thinking something is "killed" is simply by making it invisible, ie turning off it's renderer. This is a bad idea for bigger games though, as gameObjects and preFabs take up memory and by simply making them disappear, it would most likely be less efficient.

 

You're idea of keeping a count of every object drop makes no sense. 1. it would require multiple multiple calls to a database, and that's just dumb. The two wheel theory is most likely what does happens, and would be easiest to program. In fact, I'll do it quickly right here.

dropID = random(min,max + 1);
if ( dropID < max + 1)
    gotoCommonWheel();
else
    gotoRareWheel();

 

look at that. code for a simple drop spawn system done in 5 lines of code. Jagex's could be more complicated than this, but it likely isn't.

 

 

I totally agree with you, database calls are expensive as well and take up a lot of memory. Jagex has said that on one day like a million chickens were killed. Why would they needlessly create something that would require them to have faster database servers.

 

 

The GE probably takes a hell of a lot more memory than a simple formula of ["(0+n)/x = D" (whereas D is the drop of a specific item.)].

 

And even if the memory intake of other things, such as PKING, the GE, or even simple peer to peer trades were on par, you're using THAT as a viable arguement against the theory?

 

I don't believe that counts as viable arguement.

Undo and amitoz, trollbros for lyfe.

Honestly, I don't think you really understand what you're arguing against. I wrote a pretty good real-time roguelike some years ago (in 2007-2008), and I used weightings along with a table of possible outcomes. The table for the first dungeon was:

 

0-5: Tree

6-10: Water

11-12: Polar bear

13: Grraa'lak Summoner

14: Quad potion

15: Ninja Crazy Daisy

16: Twornadoe

 

To use it I'd do something like this:

 

local index = Math.Random(0, 30)
local object = objects:Find(index)

-- Bla bla.

 

It's really not that difficult to do it in this manner, as others and I have shown before.

Honestly, I don't think you really understand what you're arguing against. I wrote a pretty good real-time roguelike some years ago (in 2007-2008), and I used weightings along with a table of possible outcomes. The table for the first dungeon was:

 

0-5: Tree

6-10: Water

11-12: Polar bear

13: Grraa'lak Summoner

14: Quad potion

15: Ninja Crazy Daisy

16: Twornadoe

 

To use it I'd do something like this:

 

local index = Math.Random(0, 30)
local object = objects:Find(index)

-- Bla bla.

 

It's really not that difficult to do it in this manner, as others and I have shown before.

And with your expert opinion, how would you explain Jagex's colloquial explanation of the double wheel theory?

My "other opinions on the matter," as stated by my vote in the poll: You trollin', bro. And your poll is unevenly connotated.

 

Oh, and your theory is wrong. B2B drops, the fact that it'd be easier for Jagex to code a dropwheel, not to mention the fact that it'd make more sense and be less abusable to have something besides your theorized system, all pretty much say you only revived this for trolololz.