I completely disagree with you, however I have no idea how Jagex does it.

 

I designs games for a living, and if it were me, I would simply use a random number generator which picks from a list of items. Something that I've always wondered is when is the drops spawned. Are they spawned when a monster spawns, and the linked with that gameObject, or are they spawned at the occurrence of death. If it were me, I would spawn it when the monster was generated.

 

There is so many ways Jagex could do it. One way we often trick gamers into thinking something is "killed" is simply by making it invisible, ie turning off it's renderer. This is a bad idea for bigger games though, as gameObjects and preFabs take up memory and by simply making them disappear, it would most likely be less efficient.

 

You're idea of keeping a count of every object drop makes no sense. 1. it would require multiple multiple calls to a database, and that's just dumb. The two wheel theory is most likely what does happens, and would be easiest to program. In fact, I'll do it quickly right here.

dropID = random(min,max + 1);
if ( dropID < max + 1)
    gotoCommonWheel();
else
    gotoRareWheel();

 

look at that. code for a simple drop spawn system done in 5 lines of code. Jagex's could be more complicated than this, but it likely isn't.

 

 

I totally agree with you, database calls are expensive as well and take up a lot of memory. Jagex has said that on one day like a million chickens were killed. Why would they needlessly create something that would require them to have faster database servers.

 

 

The GE probably takes a hell of a lot more memory than a simple formula of ["(0+n)/x = D" (whereas D is the drop of a specific item.)].

 

And even if the memory intake of other things, such as PKING, the GE, or even simple peer to peer trades were on par, you're using THAT as a viable arguement against the theory?

 

I don't believe that counts as viable arguement.

 

I have no idea what you are trying to say. Memory intake being on par? wtf does that even mean?

 

What you don't understand is that your "theory" would mean Jagex would use up a lot of resources for a simple task. It would be like if I told you to go to the store and buy me a grocery list of items, and you would loop through driving to the store and back bringing me 1 item at a time. No one in their right mind would do that.

 

Regardless, you keep on wanting people to provide evidence of proof that you're theory can't exist. Like I said, we can't do that without the source. I propose this to you. Don't make any more post on this thread until you can prove that your theory IS correct.

 

or else stop acting like because someone does provide 100% proof that you're theory is wrong, that they are idiots. You really do look like a jackass. And this is a forum, if 100 people are against you, maybe you should listen to why and thing with an open mind. You're just stuck on the fact that you're theory is correct.

My "other opinions on the matter," as stated by my vote in the poll: You trollin', bro. And your poll is unevenly connotated.

 

Oh, and your theory is wrong. B2B drops, the fact that it'd be easier for Jagex to code a dropwheel, not to mention the fact that it'd make more sense and be less abusable to have something besides your theorized system, all pretty much say you only revived this for trolololz.

I revived this for the potential great discussion value, and I truly believe a lot of intellect can come of these discussions.

 

You ain't helpin', broski.

The closest thing to true randomness is atmospheric noise, I imagine Jagex test their in-house generator with a Chi-square test.

 

I've seen people get back-to-back tassets at Bandos so the theory about that goes out of the window.

 

The fact you got drops after almost every update is not proof of anything, I could go kill 2 abyssal demons and get 2 whips, thus proving the drop rate is 100% right?

I completely disagree with you, however I have no idea how Jagex does it.

 

I designs games for a living, and if it were me, I would simply use a random number generator which picks from a list of items. Something that I've always wondered is when is the drops spawned. Are they spawned when a monster spawns, and the linked with that gameObject, or are they spawned at the occurrence of death. If it were me, I would spawn it when the monster was generated.

 

There is so many ways Jagex could do it. One way we often trick gamers into thinking something is "killed" is simply by making it invisible, ie turning off it's renderer. This is a bad idea for bigger games though, as gameObjects and preFabs take up memory and by simply making them disappear, it would most likely be less efficient.

 

You're idea of keeping a count of every object drop makes no sense. 1. it would require multiple multiple calls to a database, and that's just dumb. The two wheel theory is most likely what does happens, and would be easiest to program. In fact, I'll do it quickly right here.

dropID = random(min,max + 1);
if ( dropID < max )
    dropCommonIteml();
else
    gotoRareWheel();

 

look at that. code for a simple drop spawn system done in 5 lines of code. Jagex's could be more complicated than this, but it likely isn't.

 

The drop is determined when you kill the monster, otherwise the ring of wealth could not affect any monster drops at all.

 

I do agree 100% that the drop is not completley random as computers cannot generate truly random numbers (rather, the random number generator function in java probably takes some element such as the current time from the system clock and uses a mathematical formula to derive a number from it).

 

That said, I disagree that you can predict when a rare drop will occur at all. It doesnt make sense that jagex would put some counter into the game when simply choosing a random number from various ranges of numbers (depending on rarity of the item) to determine the drop would be more simple and more random.

 

Even if there was a counter - jagex stores so much information on their servers, im sure they could store the last recorded number in the counter before a system update, or simply reset it to 0.

 

If your drop rate was indeed 65% after a system update, im sure youre onto something regarding the chance of getting a rare drop, but I doubt it has anything to do with some counter.

Roll 5d100 to see if you get a rare drop. If you roll below 75 on any of the rolls, you don't get a rare drop. If all five rolls are above 75, roll a 6th time to decide what rare it is. If you roll a 100 on the 6th roll, you get a divine sigil.

My "other opinions on the matter," as stated by my vote in the poll: You trollin', bro. And your poll is unevenly connotated.

 

Oh, and your theory is wrong. B2B drops, the fact that it'd be easier for Jagex to code a dropwheel, not to mention the fact that it'd make more sense and be less abusable to have something besides your theorized system, all pretty much say you only revived this for trolololz.

I revived this for the potential great discussion value, and I truly believe a lot of intellect can come of these discussions.

 

You ain't helpin', broski.

 

rather than acknowledging and arguing against this point, you argue that you are not a troll.

this is what happened last thread and why no discussion is going to happen

Honestly, I don't think you really understand what you're arguing against. I wrote a pretty good real-time roguelike some years ago (in 2007-2008), and I used weightings along with a table of possible outcomes. The table for the first dungeon was:

 

0-5: Tree

6-10: Water

11-12: Polar bear

13: Grraa'lak Summoner

14: Quad potion

15: Ninja Crazy Daisy

16: Twornadoe

 

To use it I'd do something like this:

 

local index = Math.Random(0, 30)
local object = objects:Find(index)

-- Bla bla.

 

It's really not that difficult to do it in this manner, as others and I have shown before.

And with your expert opinion, how would you explain Jagex's colloquial explanation of the double wheel theory?

 

Nice ad hominem, but I'll take the bait.

 

It's not that difficult to understand for most people. To provide a different example, say there are two drop tables per monster, the rare and the common. The common is given a chance of 90% of being rolled, while the rare is only given 10%.

 

You'd do something like Math.Random(0, 10). Under 9, you get the common. At 9, you get the rare (for this example, Math.Random returns at the least "min" and at the most "max - 1").

 

Now, in this table there is a second roll that determines the actual drop. Say you rolled a 9 on the first attempt. You get the second table. Now it rolls another number. This number is your drop. Say the table is:

 

1: dragon spear

2-10: loop half

11-20: tooth half

21-100: nothing

 

You roll a 1. You get the dragon spear. Or you roll a 4, and get the loop half. Or you roll a 17 and get the tooth half. Or you roll a 99 and get nothing.

 

Maybe now you understand?

 

And as far as the "let's query a database for the total monsters killed," think on that nugget for a minute. How do you explain back to back drops? How do you explain the hundreds of servers being synchronized, and the resources required? We're not talking about something that can wait a few seconds (e.g., Grand Exchange offer). We're talking about something that occurs hundreds of times a second.

Lol...here's evidence that your theory is incorrect...using the same logical evidence you've been using:

 

 

My logic is total bullsh't! I made it all up to anger everyone! Oh' date=' and foursideking as a nice booty!

 

[/quote']

So you honestly think the droprate (or.. killrate? in your theory) for hilts is about 1 in 90?

Me and my friends would do GWD religiously when it came out. Whenever there was an update, we had the theory implemented in our heads that whoever kills Kree'arra right after the update will get an Armadyl Hilt right away, for it was the first kill after an update. This theory worked around 65% of the time. That's a VERY high percentile, if you ask me. However, when we try and reproduce that today, it ceases to work, even after EXTENSIVE testing. Perhaps this was just the glitch with the droprate resetting to 7999/8000 instead of 0/8000 after each update, but perhaps this is just me.

 

 

 

You are trying to put his under a false illusion. An illusion that you will get 100% get a hilt...stated in the title. In the post i quoted, you said that your THEORY works 65%...Please stop playing with scissors and the crap out.

 

 

I would like some pictures of your hilts after patched updates....

The 65% hilt drop is obviously high, but is it a fact or a lie?

 

 

 

How do you explain back to back to back drops?

My "other opinions on the matter," as stated by my vote in the poll: You trollin', bro. And your poll is unevenly connotated.

 

Oh, and your theory is wrong. B2B drops, the fact that it'd be easier for Jagex to code a dropwheel, not to mention the fact that it'd make more sense and be less abusable to have something besides your theorized system, all pretty much say you only revived this for trolololz.

I revived this for the potential great discussion value, and I truly believe a lot of intellect can come of these discussions.

 

You ain't helpin', broski.

I have my own theory.

 

My theory: You're trolling.

 

Proof for theory:

You didn't address any of my points, instead making a mindless comment that might possibly incite an angered response. Oh, and most of the discussion value of this was used up in the old thread. You may recall that after all the discussion value was sapped out of it, the thread resorted to acknowledging your trolling as you refused to do anything except cling to your sinking theory like the captain of a sinking ship, yelling "IT STILL FLOATS! THOSE CANNONBALLS WERE MADE OF PAPER, RIGHT?" After which, the thread was locked because you were quoting people out of context as "support" for your theory and the thread had gone so far off-topic because the original topic had crashed, burned, and been sledgehammered into the dust. And now, you bring it back, for some stupid reason - which, as far as I can tell, is the trololols.

 

Oh, and the bright-green massive font on the front page doesn't help your credibility, it just makes everything harder to read and burns people's eyes. Just a tip.

the bright-green massive font on the front page doesn't help your credibility, it just makes everything harder to read and burns people's eyes. Just a tip.

 

 

Thanks sir, I'll change that immediately.

Where's that link to the weird video of that girl yelling trolls when you need it...

 

OT: Logic course 101, when making a positive statement it is not only your job to provide evidence that your statement is correct but also evidence that contrary statements are not correct.

 

Lesson number 2: Logical Fallacies. In this particular case its called begging the question which simply put means that you're assuming what you're trying to prove. Also known as circular reasoning. You assume your theory is correct, so you use that theory to describe what we see in the drop system and claim that proves you're theory is correct. This is perfectly fine to do if you're discussing amongst people who all agree on said theory but not in an argument where the theory itself is up for discussion.

 

Example: God exists because the Bible says so. The Bible is true because God inspired it. See what I did there?

 

So if you are willing to place your evidences for why your theory is true and your evidences as to why the existing model is not in a clear and concise manner (preferably in hide tabs in the OP) we can actually discuss which of the two is more likely. At that point if its proven that the RNG based system is more likely it is up to you to decide if you would like to remain knowingly ignorant and cling to your theory. (Hurrah for the flat eart society)

Lol @ stork: see, it is green eggs and spam!

lmao

 

You didn't even disprove the wheel theory, you simply pointed out that its not truly random. Congratulations, it's not like you can use that knowledge to do anything.

Wouldn't it be best to lock this, because there's no real discussion left? It's turning into a flame war.

So you honestly think the droprate (or.. killrate? in your theory) for hilts is about 1 in 90?

So you honestly think the droprate (or.. killrate? in your theory) for hilts is about 1 in 90?

So you honestly think the droprate (or.. killrate? in your theory) for hilts is about 1 in 90?

So you honestly think the droprate (or.. killrate? in your theory) for hilts is about 1 in 90?

So you honestly think the droprate (or.. killrate? in your theory) for hilts is about 1 in 90?

So you honestly think the droprate (or.. killrate? in your theory) for hilts is about 1 in 90?

So you honestly think the droprate (or.. killrate? in your theory) for hilts is about 1 in 90?

So you honestly think the droprate (or.. killrate? in your theory) for hilts is about 1 in 90?

So you honestly think the droprate (or.. killrate? in your theory) for hilts is about 1 in 90?

So you honestly think the droprate (or.. killrate? in your theory) for hilts is about 1 in 90?

 

 

When did I say this? :o

Can anyone provide some rough averages for drop rates of whips and how many kills per second you achieve?

There are ~90 members worlds and back to back hilts have happened as proven with the back to back bandos hilt picture on the previous thread that you demanded to see (and then proceeded to ignore).

It was locked due to my quotes as well as many others being misused and we asked for you to remove them.

 

If you don't remove the quotes that people specifically asked to remove I will ask for action to be taken.

 

~Thankyou

I'm willing to take the reprimanding to say out loud what everyone is thinking; This guy is either an idiot, trolling, or some combination of the two. Amitoz, you have been disproven countless times on both threads yet you continue to back your own theory based on nothing more than personal experience in an already fairly luck-based game.

Very interesting read. O_o

 

The theory seems like a good one, but there is one thing I'm not getting; Why can't a computer randomely generate numbers or whatever? Like Jagex sets whip drops at let's say 1% every kill, so on average you get 1 whip out of 100? (I know it's less, but this is an example)

 

I did read your whole thread, but it still is confusing to me.

After some discussion we have decided to lock this thread. We believe that it was already thoroughly discussed in the previous topic and we do not need to start all over again with arguing in circles. Please do not create the topic again, now or in the future.