Has chain drop on dusties changed?

[z80a]

missing your logic here....if it is 1/50000, then the chance of NOT getting on is simply 49999/50000. But i'm not sure it is 50000 and there probably is no definite #.

 

it is chance of not getting in a SINGLE kill.

 

learn combinatorial analysis before posting such words.

[Leesters]

Sigh.

 

 

 

Okay, first of all the "bug" you heard about was when the things would drop 2 noted chains, instead of 1 regular one. That was fixed.

 

 

 

Second, the drop rate is not published, not known, and any numbers given is just rumor and speculation.

 

 

 

Third, the chances of getting one doesn't "add up" from one to the next.

 

 

 

Q: If you flip a coin 100 times, and it comes up tails 100 times, whats the odds of it coming up tails on the 101st try?

 

A: 50/50. A coin has no memory.

 

 

 

Same applies to each dust devil you kill.

[wakka102]

I also got a d chain at about that time (sold for 33m) but then i killed a ton more and didnt get one. The drop rate has not changed. It's all luck.

[Lord_Gromit]

 

Third, the chances of getting one doesn't "add up" from one to the next.

 

 

 

Q: If you flip a coin 100 times, and it comes up tails 100 times, whats the odds of it coming up tails on the 101st try?

 

A: 50/50. A coin has no memory.

 

 

 

Same applies to each dust devil you kill.

 

 

 

Sorry, but my education says that you're wrong.

 

 

 

Although you are right that the odds of the 101st flip being 1/2, the odds of getting tails 101 times in a row is (1/2)^101, or roughly 1 in 2535000000000000000000000000000.

 

 

 

Same with dusties. As somebody already said, if the odds are 1/50,000, after killing 50000 of them, the odds of NOT getting one is (1-[1/50000])^50000, or (49999/50000)^50000.

 

 

 

Either way, after 50K kills (assuming the drop rate is 1/50000), the odds of NOT getting a chain are 36.79%, making the odds OF getting one is 63.21%.

 

 

 

But the figure I've heard most often is a 1/16000 chance. If those are the odds, then after 50K kills the odds of NOT getting one are (1-[1/16000])^50000, or (15999/16000)^50000, which equals 4.39%, or a 95.61% chance of getting one.

[Unitedite]

 

Third, the chances of getting one doesn't "add up" from one to the next.

 

 

 

Q: If you flip a coin 100 times, and it comes up tails 100 times, whats the odds of it coming up tails on the 101st try?

 

A: 50/50. A coin has no memory.

 

 

 

Same applies to each dust devil you kill.

 

 

 

Sorry, but my education says that you're wrong.

 

 

 

Although you are right that the odds of the 101st flip being 1/2, the odds of getting tails 101 times in a row is (1/2)^101, or roughly 1 in 2535000000000000000000000000000.

 

 

 

Same with dusties. As somebody already said, if the odds are 1/50,000, after killing 50000 of them, the odds of NOT getting one is (1-[1/50000])^50000, or (49999/50000)^50000.

 

 

 

Either way, after 50K kills (assuming the drop rate is 1/50000), the odds of NOT getting a chain are 36.79%, making the odds OF getting one is 63.21%.

 

 

 

But the figure I've heard most often is a 1/16000 chance. If those are the odds, then after 50K kills the odds of NOT getting one are (1-[1/16000])^50000, or (15999/16000)^50000, which equals 4.39%, or a 95.61% chance of getting one.

 

 

 

That's because you're looking at it the wrong way round. there's no need for all the maths :P

 

 

 

If you kill 50,000 dusties you have more chance of getting a d chain. But the point Leesters was trying to make is that you're not more likely to get a d chain from kill 50,001 than you are from kill #1

[blitz-ace2k5]

Will we ever know?

[Nazgul740]

If theres one thing I despise it's people talking about the drop rates, there are no official drop rates for anything in rs, there are people that have gotten a chain on their first one and then there are people that have killed tons and tons To the person saying 50k till a chain, has anyone killed 50k of them? All in all, there is no official drop rate so people just need to stop trying to sound smart in saying that they know.

 

 

 

Oh how right you are! even if you follow the wimp saradomin :P

[nielsdek]

i heard that d chain drop from dusties is a bug and it has been fixed.

 

*Sigh* The guy who said Abbyssal Demons drop Light Sabres told you this?

 

hey i got a light sabre there :lol: right after anakin skywalker saved me from dharok and asked me to join his fight against the darth vather :wink:

[nielsdek]

 

Third, the chances of getting one doesn't "add up" from one to the next.

 

 

 

Q: If you flip a coin 100 times, and it comes up tails 100 times, whats the odds of it coming up tails on the 101st try?

 

A: 50/50. A coin has no memory.

 

 

 

Same applies to each dust devil you kill.

 

 

 

Sorry, but my education says that you're wrong.

 

 

 

Although you are right that the odds of the 101st flip being 1/2, the odds of getting tails 101 times in a row is (1/2)^101, or roughly 1 in 2535000000000000000000000000000.

 

 

 

Same with dusties. As somebody already said, if the odds are 1/50,000, after killing 50000 of them, the odds of NOT getting one is (1-[1/50000])^50000, or (49999/50000)^50000.

 

 

 

Either way, after 50K kills (assuming the drop rate is 1/50000), the odds of NOT getting a chain are 36.79%, making the odds OF getting one is 63.21%.

 

 

 

But the figure I've heard most often is a 1/16000 chance. If those are the odds, then after 50K kills the odds of NOT getting one are (1-[1/16000])^50000, or (15999/16000)^50000, which equals 4.39%, or a 95.61% chance of getting one.

 

 

 

the chances u get a d chain is 50% u get it or u dont get it and just like the coin the drop has no memory u just dont get it that much but every time u kill one u have a chance of 50% of getting it cuz u get it or u dont.

[das]

Got one Feb 19th 2006 in under 300 total dusties killed.

 

 

 

Also since this forum is all "no pic no proof"

 

 

 

 

 

 

~DaS

[lagatag]

I got dragon legs after killing my first steel dragon, but that doesn't mean the droprate for them is 100%. It was just luck.

[Lord_Gromit]

the chances u get a d chain is 50% u get it or u dont get it and just like the coin the drop has no memory u just dont get it that much but every time u kill one u have a chance of 50% of getting it cuz u get it or u dont.

 

 

 

So you think the chance of not getting a d chain each kill is equal to that of getting one? Because that's what 50% chance means. It means that most likely, you'd get one every two kills. :P

 

 

 

I don't think the odds are like that.

[x_bow80]

im thinking u just got really luckey :D

[I_RexxKill_I]

ive killed alot so far collected like 200k cash, 350 chaos, 300 souls, 800 rune arrows.... alched all the stuff that dropped still no chain.. gonna go back soon

[nvw08]

If theres one thing I despise it's people talking about the drop rates, there are no official drop rates for anything in rs, there are people that have gotten a chain on their first one and then there are people that have killed tons and tons To the person saying 50k till a chain, has anyone killed 50k of them? All in all, there is no official drop rate so people just need to stop trying to sound smart in saying that they know.

 

 

 

Oh how right you are! even if you follow the wimp saradomin :P

 

 

 

 

 

Ty! im glad that there's someone who just fdlat out believes me, instead of coming up with the odds or what not. The wheel theory, there being teo wheels and you can only access the secons from getting a rare one in the first sounds like the most likely to me, there are people doing the math in a 1/50000 drop rate, the problem is that there isin't a number to base your calculations on in the first place. And Saradomin ownz :P

[noble_skull]

Sigh.

 

 

 

Okay, first of all the "bug" you heard about was when the things would drop 2 noted chains, instead of 1 regular one. That was fixed.

 

 

 

Second, the drop rate is not published, not known, and any numbers given is just rumor and speculation.

 

 

 

Third, the chances of getting one doesn't "add up" from one to the next.

 

 

 

Q: If you flip a coin 100 times, and it comes up tails 100 times, whats the odds of it coming up tails on the 101st try?

 

A: 50/50. A coin has no memory.

 

 

 

Same applies to each dust devil you kill.

 

Finally! Someone who thinks before he posts.

[bia_mimir]

There's a lot of luck involved.

 

 

 

I've killed well over 10k, got several 1000 rune arrows, 100k+ fire runes and a fair few half keys, but nothing better.

 

 

 

It's been a fair money earner and got me a few quick combat levels (now 113), but no chain :-(.

 

 

 

The only downside is that I'm not getting slayer xp, otherwise I wouldn't feel so bad about 'wasting' my time there. Now if only I'd start getting some 1000 Dust Devil assignments, but I've not had one for weeks :-(.

 

 

 

I met one person down there who'd got one chain in about 25k kills, and he got a dragon spear while I was there, but he killed another 8k or so with me without a chain drop (he got 99 range there).

[frankfrank18]

i have killed over 33k dusties and nothing! not any kind of dragon drop! i started when i was lvl 98 combat and then stoped when i got 110 combat and all i ended up with was 15k rune arrows 45 half keys loops and teeths and 450k fire runes and i think aroun 200 earth battle staffs. but i still wish i could have got that chain but i know one thing i am never going back to the dust devils they are a waste of my time.

 

 

 

or maybe.......i am just unlucky? :cry:

[Guest Xyrho]

They didnt stop the drops from dusties, and u just go EXTREMELY lucky to get a dchain in the first 100 kills. Also my friend got a d chain like 4 days ago... and so it is possible to get one

[Fires_Brand]

the drop-rates of all new items are always higher at first to spark an interest.

 

 

 

abyssal deomns dropped whips by the hour

 

metal dragons, up to 3 in a single trip

 

dust devil- everyone got chain real fast

 

gargoyles/nechs- granite mauls were too common

 

 

 

alot of rare items have a fast drop rate at first introducion.

 

most recent example: chaos elemental

[ixfd64]

Mathematically, it's possible to get d-chain drops thousands of times in a row. :)

[Atroxide]

 

Third, the chances of getting one doesn't "add up" from one to the next.

 

 

 

Q: If you flip a coin 100 times, and it comes up tails 100 times, whats the odds of it coming up tails on the 101st try?

 

A: 50/50. A coin has no memory.

 

 

 

Same applies to each dust devil you kill.

 

 

 

Sorry, but my education says that you're wrong.

 

 

 

Although you are right that the odds of the 101st flip being 1/2, the odds of getting tails 101 times in a row is (1/2)^101, or roughly 1 in 2535000000000000000000000000000.

 

 

 

Same with dusties. As somebody already said, if the odds are 1/50,000, after killing 50000 of them, the odds of NOT getting one is (1-[1/50000])^50000, or (49999/50000)^50000.

 

 

 

Either way, after 50K kills (assuming the drop rate is 1/50000), the odds of NOT getting a chain are 36.79%, making the odds OF getting one is 63.21%.

 

 

 

But the figure I've heard most often is a 1/16000 chance. If those are the odds, then after 50K kills the odds of NOT getting one are (1-[1/16000])^50000, or (15999/16000)^50000, which equals 4.39%, or a 95.61% chance of getting one.

 

 

 

the chances u get a d chain is 50% u get it or u dont get it and just like the coin the drop has no memory u just dont get it that much but every time u kill one u have a chance of 50% of getting it cuz u get it or u dont.

 

ROFL!~!!!!! i love your logic LMAO

 

 

 

 

 

your thinking its like a coin toss, 50% chance, u either get it or u dont, but thats wrong

 

 

 

think of a dice, if u roll a dice chances are u get a 1 is %16.66

 

 

 

now dust devil are like a huge dice with alot of sides, lets say as an example of 13000 sides, each number is a diffrent drop, only 1 side has a a d chain, lets play like the side with the number "1" is the side with d chain,

 

 

 

every time u kill it, the dice is triggerd (not really dice but easyer to explain like this) if it lands on 1, which is really really rare, then the drag chain is dropped.

[Lord-kain1]

If theres one thing I despise it's people talking about the drop rates, there are no official drop rates for anything in rs, there are people that have gotten a chain on their first one and then there are people that have killed tons and tons To the person saying 50k till a chain, has anyone killed 50k of them? All in all, there is no official drop rate so people just need to stop trying to sound smart in saying that they know.

 

 

 

 

 

well there arent any offical drop rates, but jagex must have a system to determen the drops. So if there is a system then there is also a drop chance

 

 

 

no it is just luck and nothing more then big luck like the wheel of fortune there is no way you know whast number comes out because u should always win then

 

 

 

hey genious... luck is only a part of it. if it wasnt PROGRAMED into the game where you can get a dragon chain then you wouldnt. getting one or not is luck, but the fact that it DOES drop them was programmed into it as a random occurance

 

 

 

its like the chance of getting a 1 on a normal 6 sided dice (normal not those trick dice) that wuld have a chance of 1 in 6

 

 

 

that doesnt mean you get one EVERY 6 its just the odds of it happening. its basicly like every time you kill the monster you get to roll a die. lets say its 1 in 1256 drop rate that means when you kill the monster you roll a 1256 sided die and you get a drop whenever it lands on a certin number, this effect is not cummulitive and you have to reroll the die after each kill and because of that it is statisticly possible to NEVER get a drop is also possible to get a drop every kill,although the likely hood of that happening is so remote it cant happen for practical reasons.

 

 

 

Runescape probly has a random geneator similur to deablo where it first checked to see if the monster dropped anything at all or treasure.. then if treasure went on to te next teer to see if it was one of the common drops or the next lvl of rareness.. and so on and so on all the way to the rarest teer. at each teer the computer randromly generates a number and compairs what to do

 

 

 

i know my explination is sketchy but if anyone want to know about it just look up helpsites for diablo II and a couple of them talk about the random generation sceems. i know it isnt runescape but if it has a random drop it has a generation sceem.

 

 

 

and as far as the 100% drops they most likely just have that tacked onto whatever treasure is decided after its decided to save programing space. they could also have added it to each of the loots but that would have been majorly redundent o.o

 

 

 

LK1

[Sweaty]

Whoever said the thing about a second wheel was completely correct. Theres 2 types of drops from each monster a normal drop and a special drop. The special drop only one slot on the second wheel, if the first wheel lands on the "special" slot then the second wheel spins, and this can land on a chain. There is also likely a gem slot, the gem slot would obviously include a left half drop.

 

 

 

Therfore, drops are completely random each kill - however it is obvious that the more you kill the more chance you have that you will hit the jackpot. So for those who think you'll get exactly one chain every 50k kills on that mosnter spawn, you won't you could get 0 or you could get 10. Each kill, is completely random.

[Lord-kain1]

missing your logic here....if it is 1/50000, then the chance of NOT getting on is simply 49999/50000. But i'm not sure it is 50000 and there probably is no definite #.

 

it is chance of not getting in a SINGLE kill.

 

learn combinatorial analysis before posting such words.

 

 

 

ive taken analysis and i can tell you your wrong, 63% chance of getting chain? thats rediculous with a base chance of 1 in 50,000 he was write or at lest on the chance of NOT getting one being 49,999/50,000

 

how the person flopped on thier math and coming up with numbers that high is beyond me....

 

 

 

LK1

 

 

 

ps that 1/50k was just using your guys' examples and numbers the facts are the only way wed know for sure the exact numbers\ ratios would be to look at the code ourselves