estimated drop rates of rare equipment

[IkhandarI]

ive killed bout 10 k dust devils still no d chain. bout 1 k metal dragons no d legs or d skirt. and i killed bout 400 black demons and i got a dragon spear woot :D lol. i aint very lucky :roll:

[Hardcore_Pk5]

starev91 wrote:

 

 

 

>I've heard that dragon legs drops are about:

 

>bronze dragons-1 in 200

 

>Iron dragons 1 in 100

 

>Steel dragons-1 in 50.

 

 

 

 

 

I killed 500+ iron drags, got 1 d skirt drop.

 

I killed hundreds of steels, no dragon drop.

 

So I think your droprates are a bit optimistic.

 

 

 

I've heard those exact same statistics as well. You have to remember though, it is still 80% random luck.

[mikehild]

On the official RS forums, a bunch of people did a study of dusties.

 

 

 

They concluded that from dusties, the drop rate of dragon equipment in general (spear, helm, shield half) is about 1 in 10000, and the odds of a chain is 1 in 20000.

 

 

 

And btw, the people in that study got over 100 chains from dusties as info.

 

I was actually the one that added and calculated them all, but some people exaggerated on their drops, leaving it mildly inaccurate. You could check us out in the thread 'Dustdevil futility #8' on the runescape forums for many detailed drag drop accounts, most of which were below 12k.

 

 

 

I've killed 11k+ so far without a drag drop.

[Shadow93]

Chain: 30k from dustdevils, 100-200 from queen

 

D legs/skirt: 1k from steels, 500 from irons, 250 from steels

 

D med: 20 from kbd, 30k from firegiants

 

D sq/spear: varries depending on monster lvl, higher lvl better chance around 1-10k

[bigfatleaf]

I used to record my drops, just to make it less boring killing thousands of monsters, and I was interested in the ratios of items, because as I said before, killing thousands of monsters can be quite boring... I have a list of the drops I got from 20k abby demons, among others. Whips were about 1/300, and that ratio stayed the same from like 5k killed to 20k, so abby whips are very close to 1/300 (although it might be different now, after hearing people whine so much about not getting any)... I haven't killed any for 2 months so its possible jagex made whips rarer.

 

 

 

I also got a d med every 5k kills, and I got 2 spears in the first 1k, but didn't get anymore after that; just shows how random it can be. Also didn't get any shield halfs. You would need to kill millions to find the exact rarity of dragon drops... so it's impossible to know exact drop rates, since even if you got a ton of people to work together, no doubt some of them would lie or make a mistake. Jagex should tell us the rates when we ask, I don't see how it could affect the prices of dragon items, but thats just my opinion...

[swampjedi]

I have a few thousand slayer kills logged - from about 55 to 70. I'd be glad to contribute. They're in a spreadsheet.

[moopymitchell182]

i remember dragon med from firs is 1/16000 not 1/2000

There's not a set rate that everyone goes by. Keep that in mind. :P

[dragoncmd]

they put out some numbers in rs1. For dragon med:

 

 

 

KBD: 1 in 256

 

Black dragon: 1 in 2k-3k

 

Black demon: 1 in 7k-8k

 

Fire giant: 1 in 16k-17k

 

 

 

I forget the exact numbers but they're all within that range.

 

 

 

~Bepo

 

 

 

Probably 256, 2048, 8192 and 16384 (all powers of 2).

 

 

 

Actually I'm still surprised that the community did so little research about drop rates; despite all the people keeping large (>500 kills) drop logs.

 

It has been confirmed that some things do drop in the pattern (gems and some other stuff) so it would make sense that it would carry over for this.

[orthodox]

well i got my first d med drop from fire giants a week or 2 ago and i spent at least i know 4 weeks killing them and only them for at least 4 hrs a day i know i had to have killed over 20k of them if not more in that time so it could have just been poor luck lol and i have spent even more time at fire giants before that i am 122 combat and that was the first drop i ever got from a mob >_

[Peronix]

I've heard that dragon legs drops are about:

 

 

 

bronze dragons-1 in 200

 

 

 

Iron dragons 1 in 100

 

 

 

Steel dragons-1 in 50.

 

 

 

 

 

Please note that I've just -heard- these things as numbers that float around.

 

 

 

 

 

D med from fires is supposed to be about 1 in 2000

 

 

 

 

 

From the various chain diaries and the like, I've estimated a chain drop at 1 in 15,000, but I could be wrong-I only looked at the dusty logs that were there over a one week period.

 

 

 

BULL crap on those dragon drop figures I killed like 200+ of a mix of irons and steels, and not a single good drop. And, no D med is not in in 2000. A lot of people there have killed 10k+ without one.

[Oergg]

ive always been under the belief that all the rs drops run on the integer ov 4

 

 

 

through analysis ov whips/hour abby demons seem to drop a whip every 1024; some slayers have argued this with their records/tasks but you consider the VERY unlucky people and it evens out to about every 1000 or so

 

 

 

dmed is DEFINATELY 1/256 from kbd, fire giants was every 12k or so, so since chain is more rare from dusties and assume jagex will just take half and add it to the 12k so its probably about 18k; jagex would do something like that:P

 

 

 

chain is probably same as med; it took me about 200 queens to get a chain, and back the day it was released i remember doin a personal anylsis and watchin the forums, assuming 1 queen dead every 6 minutes there should be x chains that day if its 256

 

 

 

well i noticed about HALF the chains there shouldhave been, i really doubt its higher than 256

 

 

 

explanation? well not everyone posted, PLUS chain from queen is a stickler because chain and lava staff is on the SAME drop chart(a mod confirmed it to thehate) so it messes stuff up even more

 

 

 

all items from dagganoths seem to be ABOUT 1024, since when i kill them with 3 people we usually kill ~90(up to 120) a trip and we usually get 1 rare item a trip; sometimes we get lucky and get tons more, sometimes we get none for 2-3 trips so it evens out with ROW

 

 

 

in theory with a 1024 droprate it should be about 1 item every 85 kills(3 axes, 4 rings, 2 other items), and it seems to be around that

[Taito2004]

Thing is though, if something is 1 in 12,000.. you could get none for 120k kills, and then get 10 in a row.. the odds are still 1 in 12,000, but you have to kill a lot more to actually get one.. just because a dmed from KBD is 1 in 256, dosent mean you will get one if you kill KBD 256 times.

[ChewyShoe]

Statistically you can work out the actual probability from a relatively small sample size and then work out the margin of error, this should give you a rough estimate of how often things drop.

 

 

 

But why borther? You shouldn't kill monsters for drops, its a terrible way to make money.

[bhargav1]

 

It'd be reasonable to say that that rate of d-chain drops from dust devils is lim x->ÃÆâÃâ¹Ã¢â¬Â Ãâ¦Ã¾ (number of drops/x) where x is the number of dust devils killed.

 

 

 

hahahahah....yet its so true unfortunately :oops:

[idunedain]

Thing is though, if something is 1 in 12,000.. you could get none for 120k kills, and then get 10 in a row.. the odds are still 1 in 12,000, but you have to kill a lot more to actually get one.. just because a dmed from KBD is 1 in 256, dosent mean you will get one if you kill KBD 256 times.

 

 

 

I quote taito, but there are several similar posts like this. Yes, we all know that. Even if the chance to get a dmed from fire giants is 1:10k, you can kill 20k without getting it. No doubt about that. You can also get it from the first drop too, that's why it's random.

 

 

 

However, I am interested in drop rates for a different reason. Let's say that the chance to get a dmed is 1:256 from KBD and 1:10k from fire giants. If I could kill 256 KBDs faster (and cheaper) than i could kill 10k fire giants, then I'd go for KBD, otherwise I'd go for giants.

 

 

 

That's all there is to it: given the amount of time i spend on this, which monster should i kill to have the highest chances to get the drop i want? Most likely, the higher the monster, the better chances to get it, but also the higher difficulty... That's why we (at least I) want to have an aproximate of drop rates. Speaking of which, if I want a dragon spear, which monster should I go after (I'm level 78...) ?

[primadog]

Mikercool

 

 

 

 

 

10-Apr-2006 22:51:39

 

Last edited on 17-Apr-2006 16:00:45 by Mikercool

 

Post 3~Drop Rates

 

 

 

Dragon Drop Odds - 1 in 10192 (.00981%)

 

Chain Drop Odds - 1 in 20191 (.00495%)

 

(Odds are not official Jagex rates, only the total as reported on this thread)

 

 

 

Estimated Percentages drops per. 8300 kills

 

 

 

(15-300)Coins........ 44.2366%

 

(37-150)Fires......... 8.4490%

 

(5)Chaos............... 5.3229%

 

(2-5)Souls............. 4.2124%

 

(12)Rune Arrows.... 3.5486%

 

(1-2)U Kebabs....... 2.4381%

 

Nothing................. 4.9849%

 

Sapphires.............. 2.9209%

 

Emeralds.............. 1.2794%

 

Rubys................... 0.6035%

 

Diamonds.............. 0.1811%

 

Herbs................... 13.2529%

 

Mith Bars............... 2.3174%

 

Steel Axe............... 2.4381%

 

Red D Vambs......... 1.6415%

 

Rune Dagger........... 0.9415%

 

Earth B Staff........... 0.8208%

 

Half Key................ 0.1086%

 

Nature Tally............ 0.2293%

 

Rune Javelins.......... 0.0483%

 

Rune Spear............. 0.0121%

 

 

 

Estimated drops per. 100 Kills

 

 

 

Coins - 2414

 

Fire Runes - 1074

 

Chaos Runes - 27

 

Soul Runes - 17

 

Rune Arrows - 41

 

Red Vambs - 1.6

 

Rune Daggers - .9

 

Earth B Staff - .8

 

 

 

 

From the forums, seems fairly reliable community-based large scale study. I believe they have over 100k+ kill logged, could be more.

 

 

 

Quick find code: 19-20-696-21477515

[dogfever]

Assuming that drops have a constant probability (albeit a different probability with and without a ROW) your chances of gaining n drops in k kills will be determined by a binomial distribution. This is not defined by JaGex this is the simple reality of multiple binary outcome samples (kills in this case) with a fixed probability of success.

 

 

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution

 

 

 

The fact that this probability can be calculated by a formula does not imply that the chances of gaining a good item, or indeed any item, are not random. Indeed the method used to ascertain the type of drop will almost certainly involve random number generation and comparison.

 

 

 

Incidentally the probability of getting a good drop (or any drop for that matter) only approaches 1 (i.e. certainty) as k(number of kills) approaches infinity.

 

 

 

The only question of importance is the value of p, the probability of obtaining a drop with and without a ROW. This can be determined from large studies (the larger the better), for items with a very low drop rate hundreds of thousands of kills would need to be recorded to achieve a rough estimate of p.

 

 

 

Sorry for the overly scientific approach but some of the arguements above were kind of at cross purposes.

[xstompx]

Statistically, its probably possible to get a good estimate, if we all work together and keep logs.

 

 

 

It'd be reasonable to say that that rate of d-chain drops from dust devils is lim x->ÃÆâÃâ¹Ã¢â¬Â Ãâ¦Ã¾ (number of drops/x) where x is the number of dust devils killed.

 

 

 

... that would end up with infinity/infinity, because the number of chain drops is dependent upon the number killed. Because infinity/infinity is an indeterminate form, you would have no answer.

 

 

 

How do you make the little infinity symbol anyway??

[ixfd64]

Statistically, its probably possible to get a good estimate, if we all work together and keep logs.

 

 

 

It'd be reasonable to say that that rate of d-chain drops from dust devils is lim x->ÃÆâÃâ¹Ã¢â¬Â Ãâ¦Ã¾ (number of drops/x) where x is the number of dust devils killed.

 

 

 

... that would end up with infinity/infinity, because the number of chain drops is dependent upon the number killed. Because infinity/infinity is an indeterminate form, you would have no answer.

 

 

 

How do you make the little infinity symbol anyway??

 

 

 

You use L'Ḫ̫̉̉pital's rule.

 

 

 

ie: lim x->ÃÆâÃâ¹Ã¢â¬Â Ãâ¦Ã¾ (0.5x/x) would equal 0.5.

 

 

 

Also, to insert non-ASCII symbols, you can just copy and paste the "Unicodified" symbols here.

[munchkinmage]

I got a D Square Left Half off fire giants... about 10th kill!

 

:shock: :D :lol: