Although Jagex refuses to give out specifics, we can always make (educated) guesses on how often NPCs drop certain items.

 

 

 

For example, the drop rate of the d-chain from dust devils is conjectured to be between 1/20,000 and 1/50,000.

 

 

 

Does anyone else have guessed figures on drop rates?

 

 

 

I'm particularly interested in drop rates of whips from abyssal demons, d-meds from monsters that drop them, and shield half from popular monsters.

 

 

 

Thanks.

Search Button. You should use it sometime? Same old thread which will end in the same old argument and the same old "No Pic..yada yada PK me pl0x"

its actually lower then that only a few people have gone over 10k dusty kills without a drop... least thats the idea i have gotten from most of the chain diarys that are all over

 

 

 

and ditto with teh guy above me this is da same rehahed stuff

ill tell you how many i killed if i get a chain of dusts... 11k+ now still no chain

I've heard that dragon legs drops are about:

 

 

 

bronze dragons-1 in 200

 

 

 

Iron dragons 1 in 100

 

 

 

Steel dragons-1 in 50.

 

 

 

 

 

Please note that I've just -heard- these things as numbers that float around.

 

 

 

 

 

D med from fires is supposed to be about 1 in 2000

 

 

 

 

 

From the various chain diaries and the like, I've estimated a chain drop at 1 in 15,000, but I could be wrong-I only looked at the dusty logs that were there over a one week period.

killed over 1000 iron dragons still no dragon drop

Well I killed over 4k fires and still have no dragon drop from them.

 

 

 

Your point? Drop chances are an average. And the ones I posted are just ones I've heard around in various places, except for the dusties one, in which I watched dusty logs for a few weeks and figured out about how many it took people to kill (one person had over 30k dusties 0.0)

i remember dragon med from firs is 1/16000 not 1/2000

I've heard that dragon legs drops are about:

 

 

 

bronze dragons-1 in 200

 

 

 

Iron dragons 1 in 100

 

 

 

Steel dragons-1 in 50.

 

 

 

 

I know those are only thoughts that go around in your head

 

but have you ever tried that? i got a d skirt after 300 steel dragons

 

and never any legs but that may be because i brought Ring Of Wealth the known bad luck bringer

Well I killed over 4k fires and still have no dragon drop from them.

 

same with me but i killed 8k

I've heard that dragon legs drops are about:

 

 

 

bronze dragons-1 in 200

 

 

 

Iron dragons 1 in 100

 

 

 

Steel dragons-1 in 50.

 

 

 

 

 

Please note that I've just -heard- these things as numbers that float around.

 

 

 

 

 

D med from fires is supposed to be about 1 in 2000

 

 

 

 

 

From the various chain diaries and the like, I've estimated a chain drop at 1 in 15,000, but I could be wrong-I only looked at the dusty logs that were there over a one week period.

 

 

 

I don't know where the rumors of those statistics came from, but their total BS. I killed 500 Steel Dragons with nothing better then a rune Mace drop.

 

 

 

And unless someone gathered statistics from 100s of thousands of Fire Giant kills there's no way to really know how often they're dropped (I've gone over 3500 kills without a single Dragon drop yet).

 

 

 

And guys, don't even bother trying to estimate Dusts Devil Chain drops. It'd take a near infinite number of recorded kills to actually get an accurate estimation.

Well I killed over 4k fires and still have no dragon drop from them.

 

same with me but i killed 8k

 

 

 

its pure luck, for instance yesterday i went into fire giants and got a d med aftdr about the 30th

On the official RS forums, a bunch of people did a study of dusties.

 

 

 

They concluded that from dusties, the drop rate of dragon equipment in general (spear, helm, shield half) is about 1 in 10000, and the odds of a chain is 1 in 20000.

 

 

 

And btw, the people in that study got over 100 chains from dusties as info.

they put out some numbers in rs1. For dragon med:

 

 

 

KBD: 1 in 256

 

Black dragon: 1 in 2k-3k

 

Black demon: 1 in 7k-8k

 

Fire giant: 1 in 16k-17k

 

 

 

I forget the exact numbers but they're all within that range.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

~Bepo

they put out some numbers in rs1. For dragon med:

 

 

 

KBD: 1 in 256

 

Black dragon: 1 in 2k-3k

 

Black demon: 1 in 7k-8k

 

Fire giant: 1 in 16k-17k

 

 

 

I forget the exact numbers but they're all within that range.

 

 

 

~Bepo

 

 

 

Probably 256, 2048, 8192 and 16384 (all powers of 2).

 

 

 

Actually I'm still surprised that the community did so little research about drop rates; despite all the people keeping large (>500 kills) drop logs.

Has jagex ever stated that you have a certain chance from each monster ? I have always thought that each item drops so many times a day and altho you have a chance from getting it from each monster that drops it. So since everyday more and more people are getting stronger and training on higher lvl monsters and even higher slayer monsters that since the rarer drops are spread out more it seems the items such as whip. Are dropping less when they are really just being droped more spread out so each person has less of a chance to get one but still the same drop rate. If jagex has said diffrent ignore my post :P

to determine good drop rate we need to kill millions of same creature, with different characters, at different time of day and so on. would anyone whould do that? prolly not, because for example measuring dust devils drop rate, we should get about 200-500 chains droped, from same sever, with different people. imagine massacre :)

 

 

 

it's simply not worth dealing with, because even if we would know exact drop rates, i doubt if everyone would get drop after killing certain amount of monsters.

Statistically, its probably possible to get a good estimate, if we all work together and keep logs.

 

 

 

It'd be reasonable to say that that rate of d-chain drops from dust devils is lim x->ÃÆâÃâ¹Ã¢â¬Â Ãâ¦Ã¾ (number of drops/x) where x is the number of dust devils killed.

It does not matter what the odds are because, for example, lets say theres 1 in 100 chance of dragon legs from iron dragons. You have 1% chance of getting a dragon legs drop from them EVERY DRAGON YOU KILL the odds dont stack, just because you kill 10000 it doesnt mean that for every 100 you had you should have had a dragon legs

 

 

 

 

 

~Sprinter9890

What we need is for a lot of people keep a diary of their slayer tasks and any notable drops they get. Would quickly become huge and you can throw out any suspect data quite easily. So a lot of people just keep a record something like..

 

 

 

146 fire giants - 2 rune scimmies and a half key

 

120 jellies - 1 rune large and a clue

 

176 gargoyles - 2 addy boots and a maul

 

 

 

ect ect...of course you would have to let people know what you we're collecting data on, since you assume if they don't mention it they didn't get any.

 

 

 

Also I heard same as duke freedom on drop rates for med, at least that was the popular rumour when it came out and quite widely accepted.

It does not matter what the odds are because, for example, lets say theres 1 in 100 chance of dragon legs from iron dragons. You have 1% chance of getting a dragon legs drop from them EVERY DRAGON YOU KILL the odds dont stack, just because you kill 10000 it doesnt mean that for every 100 you had you should have had a dragon legs

 

 

 

 

 

~Sprinter9890

 

 

 

u right and not. technicly u have 50/50 change to get wanted drop from any monster, but odds are different. also all monsters in server have one traking, what means the more people killing, the more chances to get rare item.

 

 

 

it was posted earlier, but it represents the idea how drops are determined: imagine dice with a lot of sides. what change that u get certain side: 50/50, but chance of getting certains side is proportional from amount of times you roled that dice. more people roling dice, more chances are that u get certain side.

 

 

 

a lot of people complain that drop rate "gets reduced" after first few weeks of monster release, but think that those first few weeks, a lot more people are killing, therefore more times dice is roled, and you have slight better change to get what u want.

It does not matter what the odds are because, for example, lets say theres 1 in 100 chance of dragon legs from iron dragons. You have 1% chance of getting a dragon legs drop from them EVERY DRAGON YOU KILL the odds dont stack, just because you kill 10000 it doesnt mean that for every 100 you had you should have had a dragon legs

 

 

 

 

 

~Sprinter9890

 

 

 

Exactly, - that is what is known as chance with replacement in mathematics. Each and every draw you have the same exact probability.

 

The odds of picking the number 50 from a pull of numbers ranging 1 to 50,000 is the same every time you pick it... with such a probablity model the chances of actually picking that changes very little with each draw.

in 1 week I remember I was doing slayer and got 5 D drops,

 

 

 

2 dragon hatchets and legs, 1 skirt, and also got guthans spear

 

 

 

i always wear my ROW, i think its all random

starev91 wrote:

 

 

 

>I've heard that dragon legs drops are about:

 

>bronze dragons-1 in 200

 

>Iron dragons 1 in 100

 

>Steel dragons-1 in 50.

 

 

 

 

 

I killed 500+ iron drags, got 1 d skirt drop.

 

I killed hundreds of steels, no dragon drop.

 

So I think your droprates are a bit optimistic.

iwas at least close when is aid fires were 1-16000, and didnt pull a number out of thin air like most people. but i do remember jagex telling us on rsc that med from kbd was 1-256 and fires was somewhere around 16000