My estimates of the economy

[TheAncient]

I did a little bit of guesstimating based off of Duke Freedom's graphs, and I've made some observations.

 

 

 

Here are his graphs. (Are these allowed?)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1) Historically, Santas fall throughout December. (Roughly 20%)

 

2) Small rares double in value every 4 months (in a good economy). In other words, every month they are estimated to grow by ~17-18%.

 

3) The best buying period for small rares is early January - Februrary.

 

4) Small rares do most of their growing in March - July.

 

 

 

1) Party hats grow by 50% every 4 months (1.5x) (in a good economy). In other words, every month they are estimated to grow by ~9-11%.

 

2) Party hats aren't affected seriously by the holiday season (compared to small rares).

 

3) Party hats may drop after Christmas.

 

 

 

Here are my predictions for October, based roughly off of the exponential equation generated by previous months. I left out some other rares because they behave a bit differently.

 

 

 

-Pumpkin: 19M

 

-Easter: 19M

 

-Santas: 32.5M

 

-Green M: 35M

 

-Blue M: 44M

 

-Red M: 65M

 

 

 

(By the end of the year, these small rares will fall back to around current prices)

 

 

 

-Purple: 175M

 

-Yellow: 190M

 

-Green: 205M

 

-Red: 250M

 

-White: 330M

 

-Blue: 560M

 

 

 

Thoughts? :D

[malo2]

Phat prices increase the most during the summer. I remember the 05 summer, when the phat prices all tripled in a matter of days, since then they've been rising very fast.

[Barihawk]

You do realize that you are trying to predict an economy that can fluctuate disasterously because a merchant is hitting puberty, or someone's girlfriend broke up with him.

 

 

 

Runescapes economy is sickeningly unregulated and way too capitalist.

[gonpost]

You do realize that you are trying to predict an economy that can fluctuate disasterously because a merchant is hitting puberty, or someone's girlfriend broke up with him.

 

 

 

Runescapes economy is sickeningly unregulated and way too capitalist.

 

 

 

Way too capitalistic? Hah. I can't deny that, but could you imagine a communist economy in runescape? I'd never play the game. Ever.

[Dalcyte]

You do realize that you are trying to predict an economy that can fluctuate disasterously because a merchant is hitting puberty, or someone's girlfriend broke up with him.

 

 

 

Runescapes economy is sickeningly unregulated and way too capitalist.

 

 

 

now taht i think about it...lol thats true. I think thse prices may be pretty accurate, santas do usually fall in dec.

[Biabf]

I agree with most of your results. Good work, in a month we should bump this and compare :P But they do all look possible.

 

 

 

Anyway, can you link me to the graphs?

[hellbellz]

I agree with most of your results. Good work, in a month we should bump this and compare :P But they do all look possible.

 

 

 

Anyway, can you link me to the graphs?

A mod would probaly lock it up :P unless we compare them to the price soon to be atm(sp?)<--- what the hell does that mean :|

 

 

 

Back on topic: Hopefully they all become 8gp, and get them for LOOKS, not MONEY. :3>

[TheAncient]

You do realize that you are trying to predict an economy that can fluctuate disasterously because a merchant is hitting puberty, or someone's girlfriend broke up with him.

 

 

 

Runescapes economy is sickeningly unregulated and way too capitalist.

 

 

 

Same thing with the real stock market... Every time Warren Buffet hits on a 20 year old girl, the markets become bullish :D

[Runescapefan948374]

The Rares Market ~

 

Duke Freedom

 

 

 

I would actually say your predictions can be fairly accurate, but knowing the Runescape marketplace.. well, could be that one day and everything might be 100mil more expensive the next. #-o

 

 

 

 

 

We'll have to wait and see what the merchants have to say.

[Barihawk]

You do realize that you are trying to predict an economy that can fluctuate disasterously because a merchant is hitting puberty, or someone's girlfriend broke up with him.

 

 

 

Runescapes economy is sickeningly unregulated and way too capitalist.

 

 

 

Way too capitalistic? Hah. I can't deny that, but could you imagine a communist economy in runescape? I'd never play the game. Ever.

 

 

 

I am not going that far, I am saying that there is not enough government (JaGex) regulation on money. Inflation is rampant, which is why party hats costs so much.

 

 

 

I know the merchants will be "OMG! U releyes that prices go up ovr time!"

 

 

 

Sure they do, but not 150% PERCENT every 4 months! That's because the creation of money should be regulated by banks. Unfortunately, Runescape has 30,000 people who alch things on a daily basis, and create too much money.

 

 

 

But is it this money that is causing price inflation? Or is the the owners of rares increasing prices for thier own gain and then blaming it on inflation?

[TheAncient]

You do realize that you are trying to predict an economy that can fluctuate disasterously because a merchant is hitting puberty, or someone's girlfriend broke up with him.

 

 

 

Runescapes economy is sickeningly unregulated and way too capitalist.

 

 

 

Way too capitalistic? Hah. I can't deny that, but could you imagine a communist economy in runescape? I'd never play the game. Ever.

 

 

 

I am not going that far, I am saying that there is not enough government (JaGex) regulation on money. Inflation is rampant, which is why party hats costs so much.

 

 

 

I know the merchants will be "OMG! U releyes that prices go up ovr time!"

 

 

 

Sure they do, but not 150% PERCENT every 4 months! That's because the creation of money should be regulated by banks. Unfortunately, Runescape has 30,000 people who alch things on a daily basis, and create too much money.

 

 

 

But is it this money that is causing price inflation? Or is the the owners of rares increasing prices for thier own gain and then blaming it on inflation?

 

 

 

The economy has a set "value." So if you get more and more gp to represent this total value, each gp will be "worth" less and less. Therefore, it will be easier and easier (don't you love this word word repeition?) for people to get heaps of cash. People will be more eagerly offer really large sums of money for high-demand items.

 

 

 

So the answer to your question is that it's both.

[Barihawk]

 

 

 

The economy has a set "value." So if you get more and more gp to represent this total value, each gp will be "worth" less and less. Therefore, it will be easier and easier (don't you love this word word repeition?) for people to get heaps of cash. People will be more eagerly offer really large sums of money for high-demand items.

 

 

 

So the answer to your question is that it's both.

 

 

 

Sure, you say that, but not every price increase is for that reason. Before his passing, Shiva was a great source of information on merchanting for me. He was aggrivated about the arbitrary price increases under assumed reasons.

 

 

 

Yes, there is inflation, but is it this drastic?

 

 

 

Santas have gone from 200k to 28 million in 2 years! That's worse than post-war Germany! Nay! Worse than the Depression!

 

 

 

JaGex needs to increase moderation of the economy by money sinks...hardcore effective ones at that.

 

 

 

Personally, I think all weapons and armor (even whips) should wear down with use, and have to be repaired on a price equal to thier value.

 

 

 

That would eliminate HUGE amounts of money from the economy, but the crying 12-year olds of the official forums would explode. It's something that should have been implemented from the beginning.

[Duke_Freedom]

1) Historically, Santas fall throughout December. (Roughly 20%)

 

 

 

To be precise: they tend to peak before christmas, and tend to drop to a rock-botton of 40% below their peak afterwards. However, people should keep in mind that history does not have to repeat in exactly the same way though.

 

 

 

2) Small rares double in value every 4 months (in a good economy). In other words, every month they are estimated to grow by ~17-18%.

 

1) Party hats grow by 50% every 4 months (1.5x) (in a good economy). In other words, every month they are estimated to grow by ~9-11%.

 

 

 

Sorry, but in the long-term price development there is no real evidence for a difference in the price growths of small (wearable) rares versus phats. They both tend to go up roughly ~15% a month. This is only an average though - there have been months were rares grew 50% and there have been months where rares dropped 10%.

 

 

 

Therefore this kind of data is only really useful for long-term predictions and you should be really wary to use it for short-term predictions. There are tons of other factors influencing the prices of rares on the short-term. :)

[TheAncient]

1) Historically, Santas fall throughout December. (Roughly 20%)

 

 

 

To be precise: they tend to peak before christmas, and tend to drop to a rock-botton of 40% below their peak afterwards. However, people should keep in mind that history does not have to repeat in exactly the same way though.

 

 

 

 

It looks like your graphs say otherwise :\. Or maybe I can't see.

 

 

 

 

...

 

 

 

Therefore this kind of data is only really useful for long-term predictions and you should be really wary to use it for short-term predictions. There are tons of other factors influencing the prices of rares on the short-term. :)

 

 

 

Yeah. That's probably the best answer.

[n64jive]

You do realize that the reason prices go up, is that there is more money into the game...So in other words, have 150m now was like have 30m a year ago...you were pretty rich. With that been said, prices of most training items have stayed the same(d bones, hides, natures, yew logs)...so all it really has done is made the game easier.

 

 

 

Also, without inflation, instead of having an economy where stuff is more expensive...money would be more scarce...and everything would be cheap. The more money ppl have, the more trade there is between players, and the happier people are. So its better in a game-like enviroment for their to be a massive ammount of money. Especially for a game with Millions of players.

[Hobgoblin11]

How can you say 'historically santa hats drop at christmas'. Yes, they did last year, but the year before that, looking at the graph, it is too small a difference to see. Yes, I do remember that they plummeted that year, to around 400K, but still, to say that there is a general trend of this happening, when you only have two samples is stepping on very shaky ground.

[Duke_Freedom]

Well, santa's have clearly peaked extremely high each year at some point before christmas and have seen significant price drops afterwards as well (mainly because the prices of santa's had gone way too high each time).

 

 

 

Since the graph is not detailed enough to show the facts very clearly, here is the exact data:

 

 

 

20-12-2003 - Peak of 300K reached

 

1-6-2004 - Rock-bottom of 140K reached

 

 

 

1-12-2004 - Peak of 750K reached

 

24-1-2005 - Rock-bottom of 400K reached

 

 

 

26-10-2005 - Peak of 5.700K reached

 

1-1-2006 - Rock-bottom of 3.800K reached

 

 

 

As can be seen, the peak and rock-bottom time became earlier each year. This was mainly caused by anticipating merchants (including me back in the days :P), who observed and predicted this yearly, periodical behaviour after the first year already.

 

 

 

How it will go exactly this year is hard to say, although I would certainly be surprised if we are not going to see a peak and a rock-bottom this year again. I am quite interested to see the exact peak and rock-bottom dates of this year though.

[Satenza]

At the moment rares are soaking up this infaltion Barihawk. If there were money drains everything would go down. Except the raw materials, which i doubt any of us would like. The current econemy is brilliant, anyone can make lots of money and buy what they please. Except the high end rares maybe. Leave it how it is!

[cotamatias]

You do realize that you are trying to predict an economy that can fluctuate disasterously because a merchant is hitting puberty, or someone's girlfriend broke up with him.

 

 

 

Runescapes economy is sickeningly unregulated and way too capitalist.

 

 

 

Same thing with the real stock market... Every time Warren Buffet hits on a 20 year old girl, the markets become bullish :D

 

*ponders* Hey, thats true! :roll:

 

I am currently saving for a green party hat and feel they are raising at a sick rate. I am finally over half way there. I was half way there for about 2 weeks. My personal prediction is I will end up paying 220mil for my green. Thats when I think I catch up, I make about 11-17mil a week. I than spend roughly 3mil-3.5mil on ess. So hopefully I will have within 1-2 months.

[Intriguing]

Well, I'll be happy if I make 7.5m off my green mask next month. :)

[dudeguy409]

You do realize that you are trying to predict an economy that can fluctuate disasterously because a merchant is hitting puberty, or someone's girlfriend broke up with him.

 

 

 

Runescapes economy is sickeningly unregulated and way too capitalist.

 

 

 

Way too capitalistic? Hah. I can't deny that, but could you imagine a communist economy in runescape? I'd never play the game. Ever.

 

 

 

I am not going that far, I am saying that there is not enough government (JaGex) regulation on money. Inflation is rampant, which is why party hats costs so much.

 

 

 

I know the merchants will be "OMG! U releyes that prices go up ovr time!"

 

 

 

Sure they do, but not 150% PERCENT every 4 months! That's because the creation of money should be regulated by banks. Unfortunately, Runescape has 30,000 people who alch things on a daily basis, and create too much money.

 

 

 

But is it this money that is causing price inflation? Or is the the owners of rares increasing prices for thier own gain and then blaming it on inflation?

 

 

 

the increase in price of rares is dependent on the buyers, not the sellers. rares can't rise unless there's still someone rich enough to buy it. Sure, merchants can go on strike and raise the prices of rares a bit, but it has very little power against the buyer and it probably won't last forever.

 

 

 

and besides, even though runescape is the definition of capitalism, but that doesnt mean that prices are rampant. They are more controlled by capitalism actually.