Utopianflame

Ah I can where your coming from now, the main flaw in the logic is simply that both ways you can model this (number of killls until the drop, or number of drops in a given number of kills) are discrete, while the normal distribution is continous. Of course by the central limit you can consider the binomial distribution to be approximatly normal , however the very small value of p means that you would need a very large value of n (about 5 times 1/p or more) for it to be a good approximation.

Nickelliston I cant see why you would say the distribution is normal. For any given rare drop, from any single monster you will, on a specific kill, either get it or not get it. This is a Bernouli distribution, so if you are repeatadly killing this same monster over and over again what you have is a sum of independant Bernouli distrubtions, which is the binomial distribution, where x is the total number of the drop you are looking for, n is the number of the monster you have killed and p is the probability. Now based on the two wheel apprach to rare drops N64jive mentioned, if you say that P(A) (A = 0 , no rare drop. 1 , rare drop. this is simplistic, but completly enumerates all possible outcomes and covers our purposes) is the probaility of getting any rare drop on the first wheel, and the second wheel giving the rare drop in question is P(B) (B = 0 some other rare drop. 1 the rare drop in question) So the probability of getting the drop in question is P(A)P(B) (normally this would require independance, which we dont have, but the definitions in the model give this result to use anyway) Now choosing P(A)P(B) to be something tiny what you find is that the odds of not getting the rare drop in question after killing 1/P(A)P(B) of the monsters (n = 1/P(A)P(B)) which is where you get the mean of binomial distribution to be 1 (mean = np) the probability of not getting it tends to about 0.368. There is a binomial distribution probability calculator here if anyone is interested http://www.stat.tamu.edu/~west/applets/ ... ldemo.html

I like to ice barrage at castle wars, great fun and your a team in your own right. Also I think that Muggi needs to be cut a check for his services in promoting Dream Theater (thanks to him i've gone from never having heard of them to owning 3 of their albums, and i'm currently listening to in the presence of enemies pt2.)

Pretty funny bug, usually no one gets banned for small bugs like this, you need to either hurt another player (knife bug, abyss bug, 666 etc) or do something massivly game breaking (waterfall quest bug) to get banned.

99 cooking, It was a short break from smithing in early 2005. 97 magic, Sorcerous intent :) 97 fletching, good question :? 95 range, I'm a rangerscape product 94 smithing, My life long work

For power ranging on things with low defense then yes iron knives are much better(but worse than chinchompas), but if you want to kill something with alot of defense then these crossbows truly shine, diamond tipped addy bolts rip through dragons faster than maxed melee with a whip or dragon halberd (nearly twice as fast in that case).

What kind of bolts did he use? Dragonstone I should think.

It's probably real, dragonstone bolts have been known to hit 60 before the update.

I missed the screeny but at 95 range, potted (106 time of the hit) and with prayer I hit a 39 on a black dragon with diamond tipped bolts.

huh? rune xbow is now +90 range bonus? Correct.

Personally I'd buy it and go staking, I cant see the prices going particulary low any time soon.

Thats the guy in the pic, from his post on the RSOF, currently the highest bid for the shield is 2 santas.

A friend showed me that on IRC, it's possible that partially charged shields are not tradable though.

There is no cure for stupidity, unfortunatly.

I can personally guarentee you that the magic long special does not have 100% accuracy. Based on the throwing knife bug and the KB I feel that the actual effect of the special attack is to re-roll any hit that was calculated as missing ( or possibly, replace any hit that was calculated as missing with the minimum allowed hit) and that your oppenents armor has the same effect as your range bonus, just acting in the opposite way. Also the KB suggests that the extra damage isnt a fixed amount, rather that is rolled, but capped at 30/50%.

They are not exactly a common drop, a friend of mine got 2 in 20 hours of killing them. What I do know is that people were trying to manipulate the price down on the official forums even as hohto was selling the first bow.

The guy on the RSOF selling at 300k is a fake, look at his stats. Plus the whip wasnt exactly a rare drop when people were first getting to 85.

The bow looks good, slow rate of fire but with high accuracy and each shot being doubled up along with a never miss special, basically gives rangers what they needed, the oppurtunity to KO.

Updated with 94 smithing :D [hide=94 smithing][/hide]

Good to see you back here :P Good luck on the crafting goal, the shop on the lunar isle is good for buyin battlestaffs :D Also first post once again :wink:

after completing the quest (perhaps during too) you only get 6xp per potion (not counting IDing the tarromin). I think he meant this actually. To be honest I have no idea what nailbeasts are. EDIT: Beaten to it, and the KB says they are in temple trekking. Poking further in the KB gives this as well

[hide=Outline of quest guide] Items needed, hatchet, leather gloves, tarromin x2, water filled vial x2, watering can Food, armor, weapons and prayer potions are a good idea for the giant (and the mice). Talk to Sylas in Taverly, he will ask you to obtain a griffons feather and a particular dwarf's helmet in exchange for a sack of magic beans. The griffon can be found by going to the NE corner of white wolf mountain. If you get a question wrong he will bite you for double figure damage (10-20 ish). This bit may change for different plays (EDIT: looking at oddfaerys it appears it will be the same) I heard you were a great and mighty griffin There once was a graveyard filled with undead There lived a skeleton named Skullrot Skullrot was insane! Skullrot grabbed the gnome's hair Started to strangle the poor gnome He saw a big axe leaning on the wall. Go to Rupert the dwarfs prison, north of Falador, east of the goblin village. Climb over the crumbling wall section Talk into the drainpipe I could try and climb up Is there anything up there that could help Your second cousin, twice removed I need a key to the house Go back to taverly and enter the witches house. Enter the witches house //might not be needed Turn the gramophone on Kick the gramophone //needed Enter the basement Wear leather gloves and open the gate Pick the up sheet music and read it Play that turn on the piano Search the compartment (4 inventory spaces needed), you will get a To-Do list, a recipe for the shrinking potion, 2 shrunk ogleroots, and I cant remember the last item :wall: . [hide=The music] [/hide] Use the tarromin on the waterfilled vial, then the ogleroot on it Go to the space next to the mouse hole (it has a glyph on the wall) and drink the shrinking potion. Run round the mouse hole (up 3 times down then down 1 and up, there are a few dead ends but I only found them on the way out ) until you find the pendant. The level 95 mice here are aggressive. Leave through the grate, or just teleport out. Return to the tower and give the princess the pendant. Go back to Sylas. Go to the magic bean patch near the washing line. Plant and water the magic beans Climb up and kill the giant, beware he can drain and switch off prayers (without fully draining prayer) Pick up the golden goblin and take it back to sylas. (other items dropped are uncut ruby, uncut saphire, 2 x big bones, watering can (4) ) Use a shrinking potion on the beanstalk and then cut it down Return to sylas, quest complete. [/hide]

Especially since in the KB it's listed as a master quest.

Today I got round to makeing 15k addy arrows using headless arrows I picked up at 10 gp each about a year ago, thanks to manage thy kingdom coal I made 1m on the deal. Add to that some iron smithing as usual and i'm now 230k from 94, should get 94 on tuesday now =)

I got a fair bit done today, smithed iron and smelted and smithed addy (sold a full addy set for 70k :D ) Currently 366k to 94 :)