OLD Barrows Drop Rate, Finally Resolved!

[rise]

i think it all comes down to some kind of factor built in to characters. let me explain.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

i have an insane drop rate for rare items from slayer creatures. about 1:300 for the rare specialty item(whip, black masks, mystic items, metal boots, ect)

 

 

 

my dragon drop rate is very high too, that may be due to the amount of boss creatures i kill. even creatures like fire giants, metal drags, ect are very good to me. i have gotten 4 chains, 9 meds, 3 spears, 2 sheilds, 2 2-hnders, 3 legs, 4 skirts, i lost count of axes after 40 :P .

 

 

 

on the other hand my barrow drop rate stinks. i have well over 1000 chests and only 4 barrows drops(all junk), and 2 d meds. while the runes pay for the trip, the items are not there.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

i have freinds with many drops from barrows and nowhere near the drag and slayer drops i have. the controls are not in place for a totally acurate comparison, but IMO something is programed into each account. it may be a way to balance the game items.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

just my thoughts and experiances

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For some reason I agree with you because my dragon drop rate is horrible, but i get and item from the chest at barrows like 1in 12 even though its always kairls lol.

[JoeDaStudd]

This barrows drop rate has always interested me.

 

 

 

The main reason no one know the real drop ratio is because only a few people do the research.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So I've created a program which you can use to record your drops.

 

 

 

Its a small, low on resources program. http://www.mediafire.com/?2nmwwwmimwk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

To gain some real data we need about 20+ runs from each user.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All as the program does save the run data into a file which can be used to find out the true drop rate.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ps. the file will the save in the C drive and is openable using excel.

[Michael]

I have done a total of 204 runs, and I only count items as d meds or brother armour pieces, half keys are not classed as a drop for me. 204/13=15.692308, shy of your item every 10 runs. What I have noticed that as you start to log the runs your average is lower, but as the number of runs done the average increases, so in one sense you are correct in others you are incorrect. And considering some people have gone over 100 runs with no item then that's your theory gone. I will post my log of all my runs here.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[hide=My Barrows log]

 

 

 

Trip 001 - 76 bolt racks, 400 chaos

 

 

 

Trip 002 - 72 bolt racks, 1208gp, 125 chaos, 243 minds

 

 

 

Trip 003 - GUTHAN HELM, 70 deaths, 245 minds, 41 bloods, 266 chaos

 

 

 

Trip 004 - 82 bloods, 109 bolt racks, 358gp

 

 

 

Trip 005 - 81 bloods, 1578gp, 131 chaos

 

 

 

Trip 006 - 83 bloods, 1134gp, 35 bolt racks, 257 chaos

 

 

 

Trip 007 - 604 minds, 1145gp

 

 

 

Trip 008 - 118 bloods, 115 chaos, 1142gp

 

 

 

Trip 009 - 82 bloods, 265 minds, 886gp

 

 

 

Trip 010 - 400 minds, 1956gp

 

 

 

Trip 011 - 827 minds, 72 deaths, 1612gp

 

 

 

Trip 012 - 40 bloods, 79 deaths, 270 minds, 79 boltracks, 836gp

 

 

 

Trip 013 - 100 deaths, 280 minds, 112 bolt racks, 1238gp

 

 

 

Trip 014 - 30 deaths, 765 minds, 1902gp

 

 

 

Trip 015 - 61 deaths, 205 minds, 112 boltracks, 372gp, half key loop

 

 

 

Trip 016 - 42 bloods, 25 boltracks, 70 deaths, 290 minds, 1458gp

 

 

 

Trip 017 - 71 deaths, 304 minds, 126 chaos, 1102gp

 

 

 

Trip 018 - 71 deaths, 301 minds, 127 chaos, 750gp

 

 

 

Trip 019 - GUTHANS WARSPEAR, 74 deaths, 252 minds, 126 chaos, 85 bloods, 38 boltracks, 612gp

 

 

 

Trip 020 - 82 deaths, 568 minds, 257 chaos, 35 boltracks, 290gp

 

 

 

Trip 021 - 43 bloods, 143 deaths, 284 minds, 75 bolt racks, 175gp

 

 

 

Trip 022 - 39 bloods, 79 deaths, 246 chaos, 535 minds, 54 gp

 

 

 

Trip 023 - 42 bloods, 143 deaths, 204 minds, 36 boltracks, 1812gp

 

 

 

Trip 024 - 38 bloods, 75 deaths, 278 minds, 226 chaos, 1318gp

 

 

 

Trip 025 - 84 deaths, 126 chaos, 12 minds, 1532gp

 

 

 

Trip 026 - 86 deaths, 845 minds, 72 boltracks, 1932gp

 

 

 

Trip 027 - 40 bloods, 71 deaths, 123 chaos, 309 minds, 73 boltracks, 160gp

 

 

 

Trip 028 - 41 bloods, 83 deaths, 75 boltracks, 1524gp

 

 

 

Trip 029 - TORAGS PLATEBODY, 19 deaths, 125 chaos, 64 minds, 37 boltracks, 1564gp

 

 

 

Trip 030 - 155 deaths, 858 minds, 37 boltracks, 118gp

 

 

 

Trip 031 - 38 bloods, 122 chaos, 614 minds, 36 bolt racks, 866gp

 

 

 

Trip 032 - 262 chaos, 318 minds, 73 boltracks, 608gp

 

 

 

Trip 033 - 71 deaths, 269 minds, 38 boltracks, 1160gp

 

 

 

Trip 034 - 39 bloods, 74 deaths, 280 minds, 38 boltracks, 1672 gp

 

 

 

Trip 035 - 124 bloods, 79 deaths, 38 boltracks, 806gp

 

 

 

Trip 036 - 156 deaths, 132 chaos, 405 minds, 614 gp

 

 

 

Trip 037 - 41 bloods, 261 chaos, 1066gp

 

 

 

Trip 038 - 267 chaos, 2534gp

 

 

 

Trip 039 - 83 deaths, 353 chaos, 36 boltracks, 690gp

 

 

 

Trip 040 - 385 chaos, 320 minds, 39 boltracks, 318gp

 

 

 

Trip 041 - 81 bloods, 267 minds, 1816gp

 

 

 

Trip 042 - DRAGON MED HELM, 40 bloods, 80 deaths, 138 chaos, 1938gp

 

 

 

Trip 043 - 41 bloods, 327 minds, 35 boltracks, 882 gp

 

 

 

Trip 044 - 158 deaths, 114 chaos, 76 boltracks, 842gp

 

 

 

Trip 045 - 81 bloods, 79 deaths, 113 chaos, 36 boltracks 864gp

 

 

 

Trip 046 - 40 bloods, 73 boltracks, 648 gp

 

 

 

Trip 047 - 81 bloods, 264 minds, 73 boltracks, 670gp

 

 

 

Trip 048 - Half of key (loop), 42 bloods, 75 deaths, 131 chaos, 296 minds 986gp

 

 

 

Trip 049 - 39 bloods, 39 boltracks, 2268gp

 

 

 

Trip 050 - TORAGS HELM, Half of key (loop), 75 deaths, 133 chaos, 498 minds, 35 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 051 - 37 bloods, 80 deaths, 119 chaos, 260 minds, 1816gp

 

 

 

Trip 052 - 38 bloods, 76 deaths, 116 chaos, 734 minds, 40 boltracks, 262gp

 

 

 

Trip 053 - 41 bloods, 126 chaos, 276 minds, 112 boltracks, 494 gp

 

 

 

Trip 054 - 42 bloods, 74 boltracks, 2276 gp

 

 

 

Trip 055 - 38 bloods, 78 deaths, 132 chaos, 79 boltracks, 1030gp

 

 

 

Trip 056 - 42 deaths, 241 chaos, 37 boltracks, 868gp

 

 

 

Trip 057 - 248 chaos, 38 boltracks, 2408gp

 

 

 

Trip 058 - 39 bloods, 122 chaos, 262 minds, 37 boltracks, 1494gp

 

 

 

Trip 059 - Half of key (loop) 40 bloods, 70 deaths, 235 chaos, 934gp

 

 

 

Trip 060 - 43 bloods, 152 deaths, 233 chaos, 572 minds

 

 

 

Trip 061 - 40 bloods, 83 deaths, 278 minds, 35 boltracks, 638gp

 

 

 

Trip 062 - 83 bloods, 72 deaths, 331 minds, 1868gp

 

 

 

Trip 063 - VERACS FLAIL, 144 deaths, 254 chaos, 322gp

 

 

 

Trip 064 - 39 bloods, 241 chaos, 112 boltracks, 206gp

 

 

 

Trip 065 - Half of key (loop), 70 deaths, 267 chaos, 255 minds, 992gp

 

 

 

Trip 066 - 80 bloods, 124 chaos, 37 boltracks, 996gp

 

 

 

Trip 067 - 38 bloods, 76 deaths, 598 minds, 1892gp

 

 

 

Trip 068 - 122 bloods, 603 minds, 1308gp

 

 

 

Trip 069 - 385 chaos, 331 minds, 906gp

 

 

 

Trip 070 - 73 deaths, 273 chaos, 110 boltracks, 242gp

 

 

 

Trip 071 - 43 bloods, 235 deaths, 332 minds, 760gp

 

 

 

Trip 072 - 79 bloods, 229 chaos, 72 boltracks, 736gp

 

 

 

Trip 073 - DRAGON MED HELM, 40 bloods, 80 deaths, 262 minds, 76 boltracks, 346gp

 

 

 

Trip 074 - 43 bloods, 266 chaos, 318 minds, 71 boltracks, 386gp

 

 

 

Trip 075 - 41 bloods, 74 deaths, 40 chaos36 bolt racks, 612gp

 

 

 

Trip 076 - 74 deaths, 138 chaos, 260 minds, 1618gp

 

 

 

Trip 077 - 38 bloods, 144 deaths, 139 chaos, 274 minds 71 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 078 - 83 bloods, 149 deaths, 283 minds, 766gp

 

 

 

Trip 079 - 29 bloods, 151 deaths, 1222 minds

 

 

 

Trip 080 - 82 bloods, 251 chaos, 325 minds, 330gp

 

 

 

Trip 081 - 39 bloods, 73 deaths, 306, 1168gp

 

 

 

Trip 082 - 38 bloods, 154 deaths, 273 chaos, 294 minds, 592gp

 

 

 

Trip 083 - 38 bloods, 154 deaths, 37 boltracks, 1098gp

 

 

 

Trip 084 - 43 bloods, 4 deaths, 951 minds, 78 boltracks, 696gp

 

 

 

Trip 085 - Half of key (loop), 40 bloods, 143 deaths, 900 minds

 

 

 

Trip 086 - Half of key (teeth), 42 bloods, 80 deaths, 116 chaos, 554 minds, 400gp

 

 

 

Trip 087 - 43 bloods, 53 deaths, 291 minds, 1462gp

 

 

 

Trip 088 - 86 bloods, 260 minds, 1518gp

 

 

 

Trip 089 - 81 bloods, 121 chaos, 292 minds, 75 boltracks, 196gp

 

 

 

Trip 090 - 41 bloods, 72 deaths, 134 chaos, 522 minds, 356gp

 

 

 

Trip 091 - 626 minds, 115 boltracks, 1260gp

 

 

 

Trip 092 - Half of key (loop), 1 death, 530 minds, boltracks, 312gp

 

 

 

Trip 093 - 41 bloods, 118 chaos, 2466gp

 

 

 

Trip 094 - 40 bloods, 143 deaths, 273 minds, 37 boltracks, 1184gp

 

 

 

Trip 095 - 37 bloods, 161 deaths, 134 chaos, 996gp

 

 

 

Trip 096 - 40 bloods, 260 chaos, 38 boltracks, 858gp

 

 

 

Trip 097 - 40 bloods, 71 deaths, 122 chaos, 334 minds, 36 bolt racks, 700gp

 

 

 

Trip 098 - 37 bloods, 250 minds, 1916gp

 

 

 

Trip 099 - 81 deaths, 274 chaos, 860 minds, 382gp

 

 

 

Trip 100 - 256 chaos, 1804gp, 37 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 101 - 42 bloods, 136 chaos, 1052gp, 74 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 102 - 82 bloods, 76 deaths, 258 chaos, 293 minds, 158gp

 

 

 

Trip 103 - 38 bloods, 159 deaths, 114 chaos, 310 minds, 36 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 104 - 41 bloods, 82 deaths, 285 minds, 1542gp

 

 

 

Trip 105 - 156 deaths, 272 minds, 754gp, 39 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 106 - 1188 minds, 646gp

 

 

 

Trip 107 - 316 deaths, 125 chaos, 264 minds, 37 bolt racks

 

 

 

Trip 108 - 39 bloods, 126 chaos, 1526gp, 35 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 109 - 40 bloods, 72 deaths, 1610gp, 74 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 110 - 40 bloods, 134 chaos, 796gp, 74 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 111 - 80 bloods, 70 deaths, 253 chaos, 806gp

 

 

 

Trip 112 - VERACS FLAIL, 42 bloods, 1526gp, 71 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 113 - 39 bloods, 78 deaths, 258 minds, 784gp

 

 

 

Trip 114 - DRAGON MED HELM, 1416gp, 71 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 115 - 149 deaths, 138 chaos, 598 minds, 12gp, 36 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 116 - 138 chaos, 2078gp

 

 

 

Trip 117 - 77 bloods, 297 minds, 948gp, 73 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 118 - 137 chaos, 838gp, 80 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 119 - 78 bloods, 73 deaths, 254 chaos, 56gp, 36 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 120 - 157 deaths, 2144gp, 39 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 121 - 42 bloods, 71 deaths, 261 minds, 56gp, 112 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 122 - 86 bloods, 2238gp, 37 blotracks

 

 

 

Trip 123 - 115 chaos, 962 minds, 1448gp

 

 

 

Trip 124 - 40 bloods, 119 chaos, 599 minds, 576gp

 

 

 

Trip 125 - 121 bloods, 78 deaths, 313 minds, 390gp, 37 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 126 - 79 deaths, 578 minds, 1176gp

 

 

 

Trip 127 - 43 bloods, 76 deaths, 251 chaos, 327 minds, 804gp

 

 

 

Trip 128 - 80 deaths, 259 chaos, 276 minds, 1290gp

 

 

 

Trip 129 - 38 bloods 257 chaos, 268 mins, 1040gp

 

 

 

Trip 130 - 82 bloods, 70 deaths, 315 minds, 1224gp

 

 

 

Trip 131 - 164 bloods, 371 minds, 790gp

 

 

 

Trip 132 - 43 bloods, 232 deaths, 114 chaos, 592gp

 

 

 

Trip 133 - 43 bloods, 112 chaos, 307 minds, 564 gp, 37 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 134 - 77 deaths, 384 chaos, 82 minds, 440gp, 37 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 135 - 38 bloods, 255 chaos, 692gp, 112 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 136 - 83 bloods, 77 deaths, 744gp 39 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 137 - 83 deaths, 128 chaos, 1026gp, 37 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 138 - 80 deaths, 2162gp

 

 

 

Trip 139 - 80 bloods, 236 chaos, 281 minds, 112gp, 36 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 140 - 73 bloods, 117 chaos, 300gp, 113 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 141 - 77 deaths, 136 chaos, 579 minds, 868gp

 

 

 

Trip 142 - 153 deaths, 2032gp

 

 

 

Trip 143 - 39 bloods, 587 minds, 696gp, 73 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 144 - AHRIMS ROBESKIRT, 65 deaths, 300 minds, 62gp, 109 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 145 - 84 bloods, 77 deaths, 127 chaos, 422gp, 35 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 146 - 76 deaths, 833 minds, 1212gp

 

 

 

Trip 147 - 84 bloods, 79 deaths, 1474gp, 39 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 148 - 263 chaos, 536 minds, 550gp, 37 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 149 - 78 bloods, 71 deaths, 1698gp, 37 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 150 - 155 deaths, 258 chaos, 2054gp

 

 

 

Trip 151 - 78 deaths, 312 minds, 1054gp, 113 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 152 - 128 chaos, 903 minds, 1104gp, 37 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 153 - AHRIMS HOOD, 43 bloods, 1874gp, 36 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 154 - 80 bloods, 81 deaths, 117 chaos, 258 minds, 600gp, 39 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 155 - Half of Key (teeth), 41 bloods, 73 deaths, 138 chaos, 40 minds, 410gp, 73 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 156 - 39 bloods, 75 deaths, 133 chaos, 268 minds, 580gp, 75 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 157 - 43 bloods, 290 deaths, 126 chaos, 222gp

 

 

 

Trip 158 - 84 bloods, 150 deaths, 126 chaos, 293 minds, 36 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 159 - 40 bloods, 130 chaos, 1278gp, 36 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 160 - 160 deaths, 241 chaos, 316 minds, 1052gp

 

 

 

Trip 161 - 43 bloods, 115 chaos, 2021gp

 

 

 

Trip 162 - 41 bloods, 521 minds, 1824gp

 

 

 

Trip 163 - 79 deaths, 256 chaos, 928gp, 36 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 164 - 85 bloods, 402 minds, 2016gp, 39 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 165 - 43 bloods, 100 deaths, 1994gp

 

 

 

Trip 166 - 259 chaos, 2066gp

 

 

 

Trip 167 - 82 bloods, 122 chaos, 321 minds, 892gp

 

 

 

Trip 168 - 134 chaos, 1521 minds

 

 

 

Trip 169 - 77 deaths, 621 mins, 28gp, 114 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 170 - 43 bloods, 82 deaths, 125 chaos, 270 minds, 1228gp

 

 

 

Trip 171 - 82 deaths, 137 chaos, 1576gp, 35 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 172 - 257 chaos, 548gp, 75 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 173 - 126 bloods, 165 deaths, 136 chaos, 39 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 174 - 38 bloods, 77 deaths, 275 chaos, 408gp, 72 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 175 - 175 deaths, 136 chaos, 1350gp, 39 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 176 - 39 bloods, 80 deathsm 133 chaos, 1094gp, 37 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 177 - 79 bloods, 326 minds, 578gp

 

 

 

Trip 178 - 38 bloods, 74 deaths, 119 chaos, 290 minds, 806gp, 39 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 179 - 117 bloods, 74 deaths, 137 chaos, 1056gp

 

 

 

Trip 180 - 72 deaths, 254 chaos, 558 minds, 572gp

 

 

 

Trip 181 - 81 deaths, 258 chaos, 282 minds, 1082gp, 37 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 182 - Half of key (loop), 43 bloods, 70 deaths, 658gp, 112 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 183 - 288 minds, 1614gp, 72 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 184 - 76 deaths, 408 chaos, 293 minds, 224gp, 37 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 185 - Half of key (teeth), 83 bloods, 82 deaths, 133 chaos, 904gp

 

 

 

Trip 186 - 41 bloods, 250 chaos, 316 minds, 1378gp

 

 

 

Trip 187 - 147 deaths, 256 chaos, 878gp, 37 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 188 - 145 deaths, 317 minds, 1360gp

 

 

 

Trip 189 - 38 bloods, 78 deaths, 256 chaos, 1926gp

 

 

 

Trip 190 - 41 bloods, 1692gp, 37 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 191 - 76 bloods, 73 deaths, 332 minds, 1038gp, 35 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 192 - 41 bloods, 79 deaths, 116 chaos, 316 minds, 820gp, 35 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 193 - 117 bloods, 163 deaths, 75 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 194 - 78 deaths, 254 chaos, 1012gp, 37 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 195 - DRAGON MED HELM, 238 deaths, 1794gp

 

 

 

Trip 196 - 614 minds, 1926gp, 38 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 197 - 42 bloods, 124 chaos, 316 minds, 1600gp, 36 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 198 - GUTHANS HELM, 120 chaos, 317 minds, 998 gp, 36 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 199 - 81 deaths, 129 chaos, 304 minds, 260gp, 115 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 200 - 39 bloods, 79 deaths, 2250gp

 

 

 

Trip 201 - 584 minds, 1102gp, 112 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 202 - 73 deaths, 121 chaos, 533 minds, 1486gp

 

 

 

Trip 203 - 40 bloods, 129 chaos, 280 minds, 1528gp, 36 boltracks

 

 

 

Trip 204 - 40 bloods, 82 deaths, 1618gp, 38 boltracks[/hide]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As you can see the rune amounts are usually in the same number and are often the same.

[Krampell]

Nice result! =D> Nice work.

[mattyb3]

here are some screenshots of my barrows log spread sheet.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

i couldn't crop the image's, so i will post a thumb nail (click it to see the picture, it will be scaled down, so click the picture 1 or twice more after that to make it readable.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

more to come soon.

[easonadam]

I think a couple of devoted souls should gather data from people with different amounts of KC to see what affect it has. Leesters, my favourtie barrows 'expert' , tested it, albiet with limited data, and came to the conclsion that by getting 20 KC you would get a barrows item on average 4 less runs that it would take using only 6 KC

[ugafan_2009]

very nice :thumbsup:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

only 1 thing, you can get lucky(so it is always when you got a "chance" fr something) my friend got real lucky and got 2 guthan spears in 8 RUNS!!!

I got 2 in 5. :-w

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Been hundreds of runs without another one since then, though. :(

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I might start not worrying about kc. It's a pain to get.

[primadog]

mattyb3, I'll really appreciate it if you can provide me with the total rune/gp/bolt drop you receive. That's the main item I need as for now. (if possible, i'll like to receive a copy of your excel file)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mc90123, to make it easier for me to interprete your data, I have put your barrow log through my script. I hope you don't mind.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

arkwelded, what you mention is a possibility, but it's not something that we can test in anyway, so I will have to assume that drop rate is not player-dependent.

[mattyb3]

Primadog,

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

i have uploaded my spreadsheet to rapidshare, you can find the link here:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

http://rapidshare.com/files/22915511/ba ... g.xlr.html

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

hope it helps :D

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*i have done some more runs since i posted the screen shots, so more data for you :D

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

for clarity, i calculate my profit every 10 runs, adding up the current market value of runes and anything else (except minds) and adding them all together for each run, then having a complete total after 10 runs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

if you see a minus, that is becuase i took 7000 coins off for the use of a pray pot.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I may do some more runs tonight, but i do most of my barrowing at weekends.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

if theres anything more you need to know, just ask.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

~matty

[Michael]

mattyb3, I'll really appreciate it if you can provide me with the total rune/gp/bolt drop you receive. That's the main item I need as for now. (if possible, i'll like to receive a copy of your excel file)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mc90123, to make it easier for me to interprete your data, I have put your barrow log through my script. I hope you don't mind.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

arkwelded, what you mention is a possibility, but it's not something that we can test in anyway, so I will have to assume that drop rate is not player-dependent.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That's fine, I only use that format as I find notepad easier to use and faster to record my drops each run. I also want to make clear, that I will not use any ppot doses at al unless I am in deep trouble on a karil tunnel as I don't pray if its Karil tunnel, this way I save money by not using ppots and most of the time Karil will not hit me at all.

[quitthegame]

 

 

http://www.stat.yale.edu/Courses/1997-98/101/binom.htm

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mean and Variance of the Binomial Distribution

 

 

 

The binomial distribution for a random variable X with parameters n and p represents the sum of n independent variables Z which may assume the values 0 or 1. If the probability that each Z variable assumes the value 1 is equal to p, then the mean of each variable is equal to 1*p + 0*(1-p) = p, and the variance is equal to p(1-p). By the addition properties for independent random variables, the mean and variance of the binomial distribution are equal to the sum of the means and variances of the n independent Z variables, so

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I am currently in desperate need of more barrow logs to research though, if anyone can contribute links, it'll be greatly appreciated.

 

 

 

Hmm normal and binomial distribution must have different meanings in English then.

 

 

 

That's probably true, Dutch is one of the very few languages which got his own words for math terms.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think you are confused because the normal distribution is often used to approximate the binomial distribution via the central limit theorem. That's the whole reason it's called the normal distribution in the first place... sums of independent identically distributed random variables with finite variance weakly converge to the normal distribution, and repeated processes in the real world tend to possess finite variance. From wikipedia.org:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

"The practical importance of the central limit theorem is that the normal distribution can be used as an approximation to some other distributions.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

* A binomial distribution with parameters n and p is approximately normal for large n and p not too close to 1 or 0 (some books recommend using this approximation only if np and n(1 ÃÆâÃâ¹Ã¢â¬Â Ã¢ââ‰â¢ p) are both at least 5; in this case, a continuity correction should be applied)."

[Kosz]

:shock: :shock: :shock: :shock:

 

 

 

BIG Numbers

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But tbh barrows is p'ing me off I am currently at 135 Dry. I get a Kc of 12 everytime can you please explain what i must do to end my dry streak? If kc, method, or time affects your drop percentage then what does? And i am not so unlike with barrows (even tho my last drop was over 2 months ago :wall: ) Before i had a barrows log and did around 500 trips and gotten 40 items. So please show me numbers to end my dry streak :pray: :pray: :pray:

[Aquashock]

My calc teacher would smack me if i didnt know what that stuff means....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

OW! :evil:

[o_knames]

 

i think it all comes down to some kind of factor built in to characters. let me explain.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

i have an insane drop rate for rare items from slayer creatures. about 1:300 for the rare specialty item(whip, black masks, mystic items, metal boots, ect)

 

 

 

my dragon drop rate is very high too, that may be due to the amount of boss creatures i kill. even creatures like fire giants, metal drags, ect are very good to me. i have gotten 4 chains, 9 meds, 3 spears, 2 sheilds, 2 2-hnders, 3 legs, 4 skirts, i lost count of axes after 40 :P .

 

 

 

on the other hand my barrow drop rate stinks. i have well over 1000 chests and only 4 barrows drops(all junk), and 2 d meds. while the runes pay for the trip, the items are not there.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

i have freinds with many drops from barrows and nowhere near the drag and slayer drops i have. the controls are not in place for a totally acurate comparison, but IMO something is programed into each account. it may be a way to balance the game items.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

just my thoughts and experiances

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For some reason I agree with you because my dragon drop rate is horrible, but i get and item from the chest at barrows like 1in 12 even though its always kairls lol.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So you both think that drops aren't really random at all; that rare drop rates are somehow different for each player? If that is in fact what you are saying, I would have to disagree with you very strongly.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For one, I think your anecdotal evidence is not terribly persuasive. And for twos, I just find it incredibly hard to believe that the gamemakers would have the need or desire to add that particular feature to the game.

[la la la]

Nice blog, but why do you say "Finally resolved!" when you said youself that you have not resolved it?

[Saru Inc]

Well, lets just say I wish I had your barrows luck.

[iwatake]

Thanks for the data, seems like a good theory so far. That's a lot of data right there already.

[oldstyle]

Nicely done, it puts my personal privately held theory that its time and kc based to shame, (long story, summed up, when I was maxing mage and spent six months there, often I would end up in irc chat for maybe a half hour or more logging out due to time out, or wiggling mouse to stay on, it seemed when I went a long time, once about three hours, standing there I got great drops, my third guthans spear was had like that.)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

more data please. =D cool thread

[primadog]

updated to reflect some problems brought up by earlier posts. Thanks for the help everyone.

[mattyb3]

hope you found my data useful.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

i will some more barrowing today, hopefully get 100 runs and then upload the spreadsheet again.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Your hypothesis is taking shape

[JoeDaStudd]

If anyone has any spread sheets that they would like to send me, I would find it very helpful.

 

 

 

Send them to me at [email protected]

 

 

 

I just fell like doing some research using multiple sources on the barrows drop rate.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks for any help.

[primadog]

If anyone has any spread sheets that they would like to send me, I would find it very helpful.

 

 

 

Send them to me at [email protected]

 

 

 

I just fell like doing some research using multiple sources on the barrows drop rate.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks for any help.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

converted the three main data files i used into spreadsheet:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.nd.edu/~xhong/runescape/beechworth.xls

 

 

 

http://www.nd.edu/~xhong/runescape/mattyb3.xls

 

 

 

http://www.nd.edu/~xhong/runescape/newbiei.xls

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

hope you find it useful!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PS Mattyb3, your data was very important, ty! Let me know if you have more for me.

[Kenshinjapan]

50 runs...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

only 1 half key (didn't know that counted as "speciality").

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But I think this can be an avarage (a friend of mine had from the 20 barrow runs 5 items...)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hes trying to get precise percentages of something that is based alot on luck. You just can't predict luck :| . Alot of effort but unless you wrote the scripts for jagex yourself, you probably won't get close to the actual percentages of what it really is.

[Guiness]

Nice data, thanks for doing this.

[silver24-7]

You're not guaranteed to get 30 item out of 300 chests, probability don't work that way.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

However, if you get less than 19 items or more than 41, it's evidence that my conclusion is wrong. If so, let me know.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

this doesn't make any sense, nor does your main theory.

 

 

 

If it were random as you said, getting less then 19 drops in 300 chests doesn't prove it wrong, that can happen with random drops, maybe if it were less then 190 out of 3000 or even better less then 1900 out of 30.000 then you might get near a real average.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But on your main theory, this makes no sense, and especially the "second wheel thing" the way you explain the chances and then reduce the chances which used to be 1/60 by adding this second wheel which doesn't even have enough items to fill your chances, also its funny how you say it's 1/200 to get a barrows item, 1/200 for a dmed and 7/200 for a half key, completely made up? ok but I believe you said i was an example.

 

 

 

But then you start adding them up and say 24/200+1/200+7/200, well the last time i was told I had a chance of 1/200 to get one of 24 different items that didn't mean I had a 24/200 chance to get any of those items, it meant to had a 1/200 chance to get an item, and then I would either get to pick or randomly be assigned one of those 24 items.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But anyway thats only part of whats wrong in the whole thing, I wont go into all the details now because I want to go to bed, but seriously, if you really want to do some research on barrows droprates and the importance of KC and time spent you are going to need the help of the tipit organization and you will need lots of people to submit reliable and COMPLETE logs to you.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Good luck with that,

 

 

 

...Silver