ORES DEMAND PULL INFLATION - BOLT CRISIS

[time2quit]

To whoever said that these new bolts were bringing in a lot more money into the rs economy, thats balls. Money enters the RS world through two main ways, monster drops and ALCHING, these are the two main ways gp enters. So for more money to enter, either these bolts have to kill a substantial number of ncps, or a lot of people will have to alch more. Not happening?

 

 

 

It hasn't necessarily got more expensive for rangers, as far as im aware, regular arrows are just about the same prices they've always been, so are knives. So its not like the only training option is taken away from them. Its just like when (insert name of player im not allowed to name who got 85 slayer first, you no who :P) got 85 slayer, just because whips were around didnt automatically mean that all other training forms were obsolite, d longs still work after all...

 

 

 

Overall I recon this will only have a minimal effect on the price of the things involved, the novelty will wear of soon (ish?), look at the chaos elemental, how many people regularly kill that now? and on the day of relise? It MAY raise some prices by a little bit, but give it a month and it will be just about back to 'normal'. Especially with summer approaching and all the money that gets brought in then...

[inner_breed]

To whoever said that these new bolts were bringing in a lot more money into the rs economy, thats balls. Money enters the RS world through two main ways, monster drops and ALCHING, these are the two main ways gp enters. So for more money to enter, either these bolts have to kill a substantial number of ncps, or a lot of people will have to alch more. Not happening?

 

 

 

It hasn't necessarily got more expensive for rangers, as far as im aware, regular arrows are just about the same prices they've always been, so are knives. So its not like the only training option is taken away from them. Its just like when (insert name of player im not allowed to name who got 85 slayer first, you no who :P) got 85 slayer, just because whips were around didnt automatically mean that all other training forms were obsolite, d longs still work after all...

 

 

 

Overall I recon this will only have a minimal effect on the price of the things involved, the novelty will wear of soon (ish?), look at the chaos elemental, how many people regularly kill that now? and on the day of relise? It MAY raise some prices by a little bit, but give it a month and it will be just about back to 'normal'. Especially with summer approaching and all the money that gets brought in then...

 

 

 

Actual GP yes, but that isn't the way money works, that is just a part of it. Lets say every item in the game doubles in value, and people trade using items instead of coins. Then everything in the game has increased in money. This is the way rares work; they increase because people can't have that much money on them. They are required to soak up the cash that can't be in circulation. That is why the market is so responsive to people selling large amounts of those, because the cash circulation has drastically changed.

 

 

 

By everything increasing in value, the amount of total wealth in the economy increases. This is not effected by the amount of stuff high alched, but the amount of stuff in people's banks. Assuming that not everyone sells stuff at the same time (this was seen in 2004 at Christmas when everyone sold Santas and they went down from 650-700k to 350-400k in about 2 hours) the value of all the stuff in runescape has increased.

 

 

 

Thereby, the average skiller has more cash to spend, and is more willing to spend a few thousand more to buy the thing he wants. This primarily will effect items with somewhat of a shortage, such as whips and barrows equipment, but could also lead to an additional 5k or so on items like dragonstone amulets, and rune sets.

 

 

 

This event is a primary example of an accelerator with a multiplier effect, brought about by a major injection to the economy. This can be seen in the real world in places where major sporting events arrive, or major attractions. In the real world, consumer spending increases because of the injection of cash, and the more money in people's hands. Before the cash has finally stopped moving, it has exchanged hands several times, and increased the demand on all goods, to the point where suppliers try to supply more to cover the additional profits (as can be seen on this thread, where the mention of additional revenue from mining sparked people to pull out their picaxes). The whole economy itself is willing to pump more stuff, and as a result, the soaking items, the discontinued and high price items, fluctuate in price, and perhaps go up in value.

 

 

 

Now this example may not be as extreme as lets say slayer (people such as fir3g0d and s1acker made billions off of getting 85 quickly and buying rares, not to mention oddball who was the first to 85 and had billions in rares before being banned) but it still has some effect. The money itself will cause some effects, perhaps not increasing a santa from 600k to 20mil in two years, but lets say a fluctuation of 1-2mil, or perhaps several hundred thousand.

[Wachtwoord]

First of all, I see the whole crossbow thing more as a hype then as something permanent. The best reason for that is because they aren't that good for training. Iron knifes and chinchompas are both faster experience. The crossbow is too slow for low bolts and high bolts are too expensive to use for training.

 

 

 

The only people who will really use them are pkers, stakers (maybe I don't know enough about staking to say anything about that) and high level monsters killing. The majority of high level players -90+- don't kill high level monsters that often (of course there are some people who do) because:

 

- They think it's too hard (Either in levels, equipment, or how hard it is.)

 

- It doesn't give good xp.

 

- They have better ways of money making (either more fun or profitable).

 

And even if they do, it's mostly not that frequently.

 

 

 

So the amount of people really using them will decrease hugely over the next few weeks, especially if you consider the amount of people hunting high level dragons is also incredible high because of the new visage. (The new bolts are very effective on high level dragons.)

 

 

 

So I doubt the whole economy will change. (Yes, I know, my writing skills aren't that good.)

[TheAncient]

1) Coal prices will stay around 200 ea, because of MTK.

 

2)Don't forget the effect on F2P:

 

Mining is now a possible moneymaker on F2P. If an addy bar is 2500, subtract 1200 for the coal and an addy ore is 1300. If you mine 100 of these in an hour (~35+ seconds each), that's 130K an hour. 130K is quite good pay for F2P.

 

3) Crossbow demand is permanent. XBow is one of the best range weapons in the game. Mith bolts are equivalent of Bolt racks, and people used to pay 300 each for the disposable racks.

 

 

 

People will just have to get used to the increased prices, I think they're here to stay.

[HellsBells]

64 Mining ftw? :P

[Wachtwoord]

3) Crossbow demand is permanent. XBow is one of the best range weapons in the game. Mith bolts are equivalent of Bolt racks, and people used to pay 300 each for the disposable racks.

 

I agree it's one of the best weapons, but I doubt they'll change that much to the economy. I also agree with the fact they'll stay pretty expensive and are as good as bolt racks. But who really uses bolts for training? No one! Same as these new crossbows, they are only good for pking and bosses killing, but that's it. There for I think it won't really change the economy in some way.

[Madouge]

I was just thinking, due to crossbows being one-handed, can;t we expect to see an increase in demand for Zamorak Pages :)

[time2quit]

3) Crossbow demand is permanent. XBow is one of the best range weapons in the game. Mith bolts are equivalent of Bolt racks, and people used to pay 300 each for the disposable racks.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Permanent up to a point, once you have 2 xbows tops you arent necessarily going to go out of your way to buy another one now are you? Its the ammo demand thats perminate, just like runes/food/pots etc etc they are the things that get used up, not the xbows, they by and large stay in the game unless you die with one etc. Look at rune simmys, they are worth what now? obviously affected by the fact that 40 attack is easyer to get and now 1 million + accounts have it, but still the price is down on what it used to be...

[Macmaster92]

First of all, I see the whole crossbow thing more as a hype then as something permanent. The best reason for that is because they aren't that good for training. Iron knifes and chinchompas are both faster experience. The crossbow is too slow for low bolts and high bolts are too expensive to use for training.

 

 

 

The only people who will really use them are pkers, stakers (maybe I don't know enough about staking to say anything about that) and high level monsters killing. The majority of high level players -90+- don't kill high level monsters that often (of course there are some people who do) because:

 

- They think it's too hard (Either in levels, equipment, or how hard it is.)

 

- It doesn't give good xp.

 

- They have better ways of money making (either more fun or profitable).

 

And even if they do, it's mostly not that frequently.

 

 

 

So the amount of people really using them will decrease hugely over the next few weeks, especially if you consider the amount of people hunting high level dragons is also incredible high because of the new visage. (The new bolts are very effective on high level dragons.)

 

 

 

So I doubt the whole economy will change. (Yes, I know, my writing skills aren't that good.)

 

 

 

The cross bows are very good for training actually. I was killing blue dragons with only mith tipped bolts and i would kill the dragons faster then the people with Msbs when they had higher range levels. I think the demand for cross bows is here and here to stay.

[eerr]

higher quality bolts are almost as damaging as knives/darts with more accuracy-this isn't just going to be a fad

 

 

 

i predict steel/silver/mith bolts will stay popular forever and be used depending on the rangers level /monster difficulty.

[lordkafei]

I am glad smithing and mining are raising. For a long time, miners and smithers have been the laughing stocks of skillers. It's about time something that made those skills profitable for the time invested came along.

 

 

 

Amen, brother.

[Wachtwoord]

First of all, I see the whole crossbow thing more as a hype then as something permanent. The best reason for that is because they aren't that good for training. Iron knifes and chinchompas are both faster experience. The crossbow is too slow for low bolts and high bolts are too expensive to use for training.

 

 

 

The only people who will really use them are pkers, stakers (maybe I don't know enough about staking to say anything about that) and high level monsters killing. The majority of high level players -90+- don't kill high level monsters that often (of course there are some people who do) because:

 

- They think it's too hard (Either in levels, equipment, or how hard it is.)

 

- It doesn't give good xp.

 

- They have better ways of money making (either more fun or profitable).

 

And even if they do, it's mostly not that frequently.

 

 

 

So the amount of people really using them will decrease hugely over the next few weeks, especially if you consider the amount of people hunting high level dragons is also incredible high because of the new visage. (The new bolts are very effective on high level dragons.)

 

 

 

So I doubt the whole economy will change. (Yes, I know, my writing skills aren't that good.)

 

 

 

The cross bows are very good for training actually. I was killing blue dragons with only mith tipped bolts and i would kill the dragons faster then the people with Msbs when they had higher range levels. I think the demand for cross bows is here and here to stay.

 

But how cost effective are they? Are they less then a c bow? (I have no clue how much mith bars are/will be)

[Dragonlordjl]

Actually, mith bolts are NOT the equivalents of Bolt Racks. They may be as far as damage and price are concerned, but the DPM is still substantially higher with Bolt Racks, as you shoot far faster with an XBOW than with a rune crossbow.

[Mouseydude]

funny this should be posted, im currently in the process of making 10k mith bolts (i bought 4k coal and 1k mith and 10k feathers for around a cost of 1280k) and im going to sell all the bolts 180 each, so i make a profit of 520k, 80k smithing exp and 50k fletching exp... all for the low cost of around 10 hours of work lolz

[Tanner4560]

Every since the release new bow, and the upgrading of bolts, we have seen a rise in the price of ores, and arrows.

 

 

 

Now what in the passed to be the weakest of the three fighting skills, range, has become super popular, and some would argue "overpowered" (if there is any sense in calling anything that.)

 

 

 

Because of this, the demand for people to raise magic levels is shooting up. A similar thing was seen with the introduction of first Teleblock and then Ancient Magics with the rune market. After the release of those updates, the price of training magic went from slight profit to huge losses. People were now losing 150+ gp per alch, when alching used to make more money.

 

 

 

A similar thing is occurring with the bolt and arrow market right now. There is of course, one slight difference. The arrow and bolt market is tied in with 4 skills as apposed to one, rune craft. Bolts involve mining and smithing, and arrows require fletching. In addition to this, gems are now in super demand because of the tips, and the demand/price on gems has increased, changing the crafting market. This in turn effects other markets like thieving which generate a lot of the market's gems, but only slightly.

 

 

 

The first thing that is hit is mining. The demand for high ores is through the roof. Mith bars are being shot out of the sky, what used to be high price of 1200 and maybe 1300 for the rare rich buyer is now being scaled to 1400 and even 1450-1500ea in some rare big bulk cases. Addy bars have shot up to 3k ea, when they previously were at 2.5k each at the most (usually 2-2.2k ea). Rune ores too are being effected. A bar can now generate 20k in profit from rangers, and now in even higher demand. All this is also effecting the price of ores, which are needed in making the bars.

 

 

 

 

 

Because of this shortage of bolts, and this hyper demand, the cost of smithing is increasing, and the cost of ranging is increasing. This means that the lower level people, who generally practice primary skills such as mining, and smelting, are gaining extra cash in their pockets. Ores are through the roof, and anyone with 50 smithing can make mithril bars. Because of this, lower level players are willing to pay more for things they need, such as rune armor, new weapons, etc. Due to this, the price of everything is slightly raising, due to demand pull inflation.

 

 

 

What started as a simple increase in demand for bolts has now led to a crazy demand increase on everything in runescape. As a result, more hypothetical money is in circulation, due to items being valued more. Skillers practicing secondary skills, such as smithing and fletching are going to find it more difficult to level up, as they are unable to buy as many goods with their money, due to increase in prices. Rangers will be unable to range as many monsters for their dollar, simply because the price of arrows and bolts has gone through the roof. The only people truly benefiting are the low level miners, pumping the fuel, and in turn increasing the prices of all goods.

 

 

 

Because of this inflation, all other goods are forced to increase in value. There are not enough gem tips in circulation, so the crafting market increases the demand for gems, this in turn hits the mining market who mine the gems. The demand for arrows is increasing, so the amount of gatherers of arrows is increasing. This in turn leads to lower ended players gaining more money, since they are most likely the ones hopping shop from shop looking for arrow heads. Everything in turn is effected by this surge in the price of one good. The whole market is effected, even the discontinued items gets hit, due to the increase in demand for rares since people have more money to spend.

 

 

 

Discuss.

 

 

 

CHIN-CHOM-PAH's- better than bolts and easily obtaind :)

[123Yourgone]

Actually, mith bolts are NOT the equivalents of Bolt Racks. They may be as far as damage and price are concerned, but the DPM is still substantially higher with Bolt Racks, as you shoot far faster with an XBOW than with a rune crossbow.

X-bow is more accurate and even mith bolts are more damage.

 

Addy bolt price is comparable to bolt racks and i hit 31s with them at 85 range (pot and prayer)

[mathgenius50]

In my responce to the runescape economy that there maybe some inflation but definatly not like the real economy. In RS for a few years ago, almost everything droped like whips, lobs, and rune armor. I think there might be a rise in prices because of banning of macros (thank you Jagex) but not inflation. If you dont want to buy at the price, then just make your own. \

[psychobiker5]

wow reading all these economical things about all this stuff is killing my fletching goal i think ima finish the rest of my bows sellem while i still can and just train total lvl and cb . seems like a better decision at this point in time (though i really wanted a skillcape)

[guzoliub]

For me one of the main reasons for high bolts demand is the draconic visage. Rune cb may not be as cost effective for range training, but for killing high dragons it is second to none. In my case it is the cheapest (by far) method of killing iron dragons. And it is used a lot currently.

 

 

 

Once the visage madness peaks out, the demand for mith bolts may go down. (I make my bolts at the blast furnace -> cheap + smithing exp)

[malo2]

I'm just glad that Smiths can finnaly rejoice, smithing has been too useless for too long.

 

 

 

Also, what about the gems?shouldn't they rise too? or do people use the bolts without the tips? can you even do that?

 

 

 

I must agree, mining is becoming more popular (as have the gemrocks been) as prices of roes are slowly rising...

 

 

 

The only people who gain cash over this mroe are the miners. Everyone else (smither buying the ores or bars, fletcher buying the arrowheads and unifinished bolts, etc) is losing cash over this...

You are kidding right? I'm smithing addy bolts this very moment, and if you would only know how much money I'm making...

[jessy87]

I'm just glad that Smiths can finnaly rejoice, smithing has been too useless for too long.

 

 

 

Also, what about the gems?shouldn't they rise too? or do people use the bolts without the tips? can you even do that?

 

 

 

I must agree, mining is becoming more popular (as have the gemrocks been) as prices of roes are slowly rising...

 

 

 

The only people who gain cash over this mroe are the miners. Everyone else (smither buying the ores or bars, fletcher buying the arrowheads and unifinished bolts, etc) is losing cash over this...

You are kidding right? I'm smithing addy bolts this very moment, and if you would only know how much money I'm making...

 

 

 

 

 

well, do tell?

[Smithy93]

It's the end of Runescape as we know it, It's the end of Runescape as we know it. And I feel fine!

[Wisp]

I can predict most items in the current economy, but i can't predict updates.

 

 

 

Just a simple guess, with no back up study...

 

More people will try to mine rune rocks, and with more people, it will be harder to get a ore that is un mined. This will continue for sometime, as the prices raise, and the supply remains low, but soon miners will realize they can make more money doing something different, since the ores are so scarce.

 

Eventually demand will die down, and the prices too, and thus less people will attempt to mine ores, and it should level back out.

 

I'm guessing this won't hurt the economy or help it to much in the long run

[hyjack01]

just sold some old stock.. 1k addy bars 3k ea, 1 k addy ores 1.4k ea..

 

 

 

taking advantage of these unforeseen price explosions... :wink:

[sithlord_man]

well better stock up on gems and other goods for the long summer ahead :shock: