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ORES DEMAND PULL INFLATION - BOLT CRISIS


inner_breed

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Every since the release new bow, and the upgrading of bolts, we have seen a rise in the price of ores, and arrows.

 

 

 

Now what in the passed to be the weakest of the three fighting skills, range, has become super popular, and some would argue "overpowered" (if there is any sense in calling anything that.)

 

 

 

Because of this, the demand for people to raise magic levels is shooting up. A similar thing was seen with the introduction of first Teleblock and then Ancient Magics with the rune market. After the release of those updates, the price of training magic went from slight profit to huge losses. People were now losing 150+ gp per alch, when alching used to make more money.

 

 

 

A similar thing is occurring with the bolt and arrow market right now. There is of course, one slight difference. The arrow and bolt market is tied in with 4 skills as apposed to one, rune craft. Bolts involve mining and smithing, and arrows require fletching. In addition to this, gems are now in super demand because of the tips, and the demand/price on gems has increased, changing the crafting market. This in turn effects other markets like thieving which generate a lot of the market's gems, but only slightly.

 

 

 

The first thing that is hit is mining. The demand for high ores is through the roof. Mith bars are being shot out of the sky, what used to be high price of 1200 and maybe 1300 for the rare rich buyer is now being scaled to 1400 and even 1450-1500ea in some rare big bulk cases. Addy bars have shot up to 3k ea, when they previously were at 2.5k each at the most (usually 2-2.2k ea). Rune ores too are being effected. A bar can now generate 20k in profit from rangers, and now in even higher demand. All this is also effecting the price of ores, which are needed in making the bars.

 

 

 

 

 

Because of this shortage of bolts, and this hyper demand, the cost of smithing is increasing, and the cost of ranging is increasing. This means that the lower level people, who generally practice primary skills such as mining, and smelting, are gaining extra cash in their pockets. Ores are through the roof, and anyone with 50 smithing can make mithril bars. Because of this, lower level players are willing to pay more for things they need, such as rune armor, new weapons, etc. Due to this, the price of everything is slightly raising, due to demand pull inflation.

 

 

 

What started as a simple increase in demand for bolts has now led to a crazy demand increase on everything in runescape. As a result, more hypothetical money is in circulation, due to items being valued more. Skillers practicing secondary skills, such as smithing and fletching are going to find it more difficult to level up, as they are unable to buy as many goods with their money, due to increase in prices. Rangers will be unable to range as many monsters for their dollar, simply because the price of arrows and bolts has gone through the roof. The only people truly benefiting are the low level miners, pumping the fuel, and in turn increasing the prices of all goods.

 

 

 

Because of this inflation, all other goods are forced to increase in value. There are not enough gem tips in circulation, so the crafting market increases the demand for gems, this in turn hits the mining market who mine the gems. The demand for arrows is increasing, so the amount of gatherers of arrows is increasing. This in turn leads to lower ended players gaining more money, since they are most likely the ones hopping shop from shop looking for arrow heads. Everything in turn is effected by this surge in the price of one good. The whole market is effected, even the discontinued items gets hit, due to the increase in demand for rares since people have more money to spend.

 

 

 

Discuss.

Runescape veteran. Originally adventurer (and mage on other account), now pker.

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Welcome to the wonderful world of Economics, glad you could join us.

 

 

 

The price incresses were to be expected, although I actualy hadent noticed an increase in demand for arrows (I though tthe demand would go down), maby because range is my least favorite combat skill and I honestly don't give a damn.

 

 

 

But the increase in demand for bolts, and gems is logical. And the low lvls aren't the only ones benifiting from it. Higher lvl miners can bring in the valuble ores much faster than the low lvls, and only the higher lvl smithers/fletchers can make the high end bolts that are now in demand. I actualy like this seeing as I am both a miner and a smither, and now migth be a good time to raise my fletching a bit to join in the fun of money making. And I belive Avas attractor works on bolts, so the rangers can get much more bang for there buck by using that when they range. All they have to do is find a place where theres nothing between them and there target, and that type of safespot does exist. SO Im not feeling any sympathy for them and there incresed cost of operation.

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And I got to 75 smithing and made 280k per hour using those prices to my advantage! :)

 

 

 

I let a friend fletch the arrows on since i'm 99 fletching already...it worked out well for the both of us.

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And I got to 75 smithing and made 280k per hour using those prices to my advantage! :)

 

 

 

I let a friend fletch the arrows on since i'm 99 fletching already...it worked out well for the both of us.

 

 

 

And I got from 80-82 fletching! And almost got CTS #-o

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I Know...

 

I Was trying to buy iron and coal...

 

thye are 130 and 230 each now

 

 

 

coal is 230 ea :shock: back to mining coal... 60k coal to 85 mining :twisted: but seriously, this is just runescape economics. maybe now some scapers will realise the value of money, no wait, they'll buy it. hold on, conspiracy just formulated in my head. jagex started working on crackng down on botters and real world traders at about the same time they started with these range updates(a month or two is about how loong new weapons/upgrades take), could they have forseen this? i think jagex forsaw this, so started to crack down on real worlders so that the value of these items would stay they same... if i'm right, then jagex has actually started to pay attention to the economy! could we see another shattering update like this in the near future?

rare%20ghoul2.gif

rare%20ghoul2.gif

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I Know...

 

I Was trying to buy iron and coal...

 

thye are 130 and 230 each now

 

 

 

coal is 230 ea :shock: back to mining coal... 60k coal to 85 mining :twisted: but seriously, this is just runescape economics. maybe now some scapers will realise the value of money, no wait, they'll buy it. hold on, conspiracy just formulated in my head. jagex started working on crackng down on botters and real world traders at about the same time they started with these range updates(a month or two is about how loong new weapons/upgrades take), could they have forseen this? i think jagex forsaw this, so started to crack down on real worlders so that the value of these items would stay they same... if i'm right, then jagex has actually started to pay attention to the economy! could we see another shattering update like this in the near future?

 

 

 

One - This isn't "Runescape Economics". It's how the real economy works. The demand for bolts has been higher - causing the bolt price to increase. And same with Iron and Coal - higher demand causes higher price.

 

 

 

Second - Jagex has always payed attention to the economy. You didn't notice they took away rare items due to the fact the prices were coming to outragous prices (at the time)?

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I Know...

 

I Was trying to buy iron and coal...

 

thye are 130 and 230 each now

 

 

 

coal is 230 ea :shock: back to mining coal... 60k coal to 85 mining :twisted: but seriously, this is just runescape economics. maybe now some scapers will realise the value of money, no wait, they'll buy it. hold on, conspiracy just formulated in my head. jagex started working on crackng down on botters and real world traders at about the same time they started with these range updates(a month or two is about how loong new weapons/upgrades take), could they have forseen this? i think jagex forsaw this, so started to crack down on real worlders so that the value of these items would stay they same... if i'm right, then jagex has actually started to pay attention to the economy! could we see another shattering update like this in the near future?

 

 

 

One - This isn't "Runescape Economics". It's how the real economy works. The demand for bolts has been higher - causing the bolt price to increase. And same with Iron and Coal - higher demand causes higher price.

 

 

 

Second - Jagex has always payed attention to the economy. You didn't notice they took away rare items due to the fact the prices were coming to outragous prices (at the time)?

 

 

 

1. difference between real economics and runescape.

 

 

 

runescape's economy is dependant on the price of rares and the next update jagex makes.

 

 

 

real life economies are dependant on so many things that i cannot list them, but rare items are not on that list. it's the middle class that provides the goods that an economy realies upon, as well as huge corperations to distribute these goods. in runescape, the middle class is around a 10-50m net worth. this middle class usually depend on merchanting as their main source of income, while anyone in the real world who does this is rich, or will not make an extensive profit. these economies have their similarities, but at heart are completely different.

 

 

 

as for the rares, you're right on that, but it was impossible for jagex not to notice, the economy of their whole game was starting to rely upon these paper hats, while they meant it to add a friendly aspect to the game, and for people to have fun with the cool looking hats.

rare%20ghoul2.gif

rare%20ghoul2.gif

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I Know...

 

I Was trying to buy iron and coal...

 

thye are 130 and 230 each now

 

 

 

coal is 230 ea :shock: back to mining coal... 60k coal to 85 mining :twisted: but seriously, this is just runescape economics. maybe now some scapers will realise the value of money, no wait, they'll buy it. hold on, conspiracy just formulated in my head. jagex started working on crackng down on botters and real world traders at about the same time they started with these range updates(a month or two is about how loong new weapons/upgrades take), could they have forseen this? i think jagex forsaw this, so started to crack down on real worlders so that the value of these items would stay they same... if i'm right, then jagex has actually started to pay attention to the economy! could we see another shattering update like this in the near future?

 

 

 

One - This isn't "Runescape Economics". It's how the real economy works. The demand for bolts has been higher - causing the bolt price to increase. And same with Iron and Coal - higher demand causes higher price.

 

 

 

Second - Jagex has always payed attention to the economy. You didn't notice they took away rare items due to the fact the prices were coming to outragous prices (at the time)?

 

 

 

1. difference between real economics and runescape.

 

 

 

runescape's economy is dependant on the price of rares and the next update jagex makes.

 

 

 

real life economies are dependant on so many things that i cannot list them, but rare items are not on that list. it's the middle class that provides the goods that an economy realies upon, as well as huge corperations to distribute these goods. in runescape, the middle class is around a 10-50m net worth. this middle class usually depend on merchanting as their main source of income, while anyone in the real world who does this is rich, or will not make an extensive profit. these economies have their similarities, but at heart are completely different.

 

 

 

as for the rares, you're right on that, but it was impossible for jagex not to notice, the economy of their whole game was starting to rely upon these paper hats, while they meant it to add a friendly aspect to the game, and for people to have fun with the cool looking hats.

 

 

 

Well runescape economy and real life's economy are based off the same thing

 

 

 

Just read the first paragraph of the article-

 

economy link

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Abyss Whip came out, everything surged, dragon two hander came out, everything surged, construction came out, everything surged. I don't expect it to last too long.

 

 

 

exactly, this is just another false phase of runescape economy, in a few weeks/months this will die out and everything will live happily ever after until another update comes our way.

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1. difference between real economics and runescape.

 

 

 

runescape's economy is dependant on the price of rares and the next update jagex makes.

 

 

 

real life economies are dependant on so many things that i cannot list them, but rare items are not on that list. it's the middle class that provides the goods that an economy realies upon, as well as huge corperations to distribute these goods. in runescape, the middle class is around a 10-50m net worth. this middle class usually depend on merchanting as their main source of income, while anyone in the real world who does this is rich, or will not make an extensive profit. these economies have their similarities, but at heart are completely different.

 

 

 

as for the rares, you're right on that, but it was impossible for jagex not to notice, the economy of their whole game was starting to rely upon these paper hats, while they meant it to add a friendly aspect to the game, and for people to have fun with the cool looking hats.

 

 

 

Regarding part in bold: No, a lot of the economy (logs, bows, nature runes, green d'hide bodies, etc etc) is dependent on high alchemy values, not rares.

 

 

 

Very interesting/informative post inner_breed.

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I am glad smithing and mining are raising. For a long time, miners and smithers have been the laughing stocks of skillers. It's about time something that made those skills profitable for the time invested came along.

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I Know...

 

I Was trying to buy iron and coal...

 

thye are 130 and 230 each now

 

 

 

WOw!... merchant time!

Hey Nicrune007 , Whats Your Username?

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I must agree, mining is becoming more popular (as have the gemrocks been) as prices of roes are slowly rising...

 

 

 

The only people who gain cash over this mroe are the miners. Everyone else (smither buying the ores or bars, fletcher buying the arrowheads and unifinished bolts, etc) is losing cash over this...

 

 

 

Re-distribution of wealth anyone?

 

 

 

And it can already be seen in the price of what is quite possibly the most stable item EVER:

 

 

 

Coal... It is the most RELIABLE item, having taken a year to go from 100-150 each to 150-200 each, it doesnt fluctuate, it doesnt crash or surge, it always stays steady. If Coal changes value, then you can speak of in or de-flation...

 

 

 

The current coal prices are 170-210 each at time of writing (instead of 150-200), so most are bought and sold at 200 each...

 

 

 

 

 

Side note:

 

Lvl 83 smithy here, for anyone wanting to have their addy done :)

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