"It's Better to be Lucky Than Good"

[qeltar]

(With a tip of the hat to a RS friend of mine, who pointed out this issue in another discussion on the Runescape forums.)

 

 

 

It's a bit of an old saw that it's better to be lucky than good, but unfortunately, Jagex seems to have taken this to heart as a design principle for its latest and greatest new items. Skill, experience and levels no longer seem to matter, only one's ability to "roll the virtual dice".

 

 

 

Consider:

 

 

 

1. The Dark Bow. Player A hit 85 and stopped leveling because there was "no incentive". The dark bow comes out, so he buys some wild pies, kills a dozen dark beasts and gets a bow, which he sells for millions. Meanwhile Player B, who kept training slayer to level 92, has to spend a week there just trying to get one for himself.

 

 

 

2. Dragon Arrows. Oh, you want some ammo for that bow? Well you first have to be lucky enough to find a dragon impling. Then you have to loot it and hope it isn't garbage like a death tally or 6 dragonstone bolt tips. Gee, it could take you a while.

 

 

 

3. Dragonfire Shield. Well, the blacks and irons and steels and wyverns drop them, but we won't tell you anything about how long it takes or how frequent. Some level 77 guy with a rune hally could plink away at black dragons for an hour and score one, while a level 126 could melee hundreds of steels and mith dragons for weeks and never get a drop.

 

 

 

4. Dragon Full Helm. Lather, rinse, repeat.

 

 

 

Has Jagex NO creativity at all in putting new items into the game? I mean... couldn't they come up with SOME method of allowing these interesting new items to be obtained other than a lucky drop? Is luck all they want to encourage in this game?

 

 

 

Just as one example... Could they not have had the mithril dragons drop a special untradeable item like a "mithril scale", and you turn in say 500 of them to the barbarian dude to get a dragon full helm?

 

 

 

 

 

Why is it always better to be lucky than good?

 

 

 

~q

[Howdydee2003]

i would say having 90 slayer to kill those dark beasts is quite hard to get. the question is do YOU have 90 slayer. And its not even that, you have to have some decent stats to kill these monsters.... for a decent amount of time too. your acting like everyone and thier mothers can fight dark beasts and steel drags...

 

 

 

 

 

Hell the only the other way they could release any good item anyways is by comming out with a new quest that super hard to do. which i think they should so no newbs will have it... and make it untradeable. but anyways they should just make new dragon plates only available to 99 smithers right? because i think ive earned it :P

[Giordano]

Most items are dropped from monsters ever since Classic. Sure they released some other ways (Barrows, quests, skills) but overall it's the monster-drop system.

 

But you need some RS-skill to kill those monsters. Such as the Dark Bow, level 90 slayer, good stats to kill those 182 beasts. Good stuff to kill the KQ. So mostly it is about luck, but in order to get there you need skills.

[SQueezeEaSY]

I can relate to #3...

 

 

 

I've been killing steels dragons since the 3rd day after the dragonfire shield update

 

 

 

So far 2300+steels and STILL no visage, while other people get it within several kills

 

 

 

Why I am so unlucky :wall:

[caldius]

I have to agree with this a little bit, I don't like my items coming from drops, I prefer it if I have to work for them in some otherway. But I disagree with you saying its the only way jagex introduces these items

 

 

 

For instance, to get the spell book, master wand and infinity boots (the best magic items for their respective slots) you have to spend a fair while at the mage training arena to get them.

 

 

 

Granite body and fighter bodys are the same only its at barbarian assult.

 

 

 

God staffs and magic

 

chincompas

 

barrows items (although there is a bit of luck here too)

 

Crown of neiztnot

 

Dragon scimitar

 

etc

 

etc

 

etc

 

 

 

So whilst yes i would like good items to come from things other than random drops, I don't think jagex has had any shortage of ideas and opportunites when it comes to this.

[hipyhop00]

im in the "good" catagory

 

 

 

everyone says i get lucky with drops when i show them (alot of dragon drops) but i only got them from killing them over and over and over (260 kbd before a d drop, 190 kq before a chain)

[Blue_Fire_Blaze]

I know what you mean. I have been killing tons of fire gaints while people get dragon meds here and there -.-

[salim123]

yes it relies to much on luck

[highlanders]

If I look at the scales idea, I guess what you want is a drop system that garantees you get the item after x kills.

 

So let's say player A takes 1 kill to get a full drag helm (seen a post on it in rate this forum :) ) and player B who takes 1000 kills to get the same item. Then you propose the garantee of having it after 500 (scales) kills. There's no difference, except that instead of it being a gamble of lucky/unlucky, you play it safe. The whole concept of "good" and "bad" players is just ridiculous though, only the most experienced players "deserve" the drops? :roll:

[Howdydee2003]

but wouldnt that kill the whole suspense of the game? it would make fighting things alot more boring to me ... seeing as i love to see dragon legs laying on the d bones after i kill a steel. its like being a virgin all over again. i just think expecting items like that would kill the whole fun in fighting any monster

 

 

 

 

 

its like... "yay....9 more fire giants and hes gonna drop me my med!" .....

[Dragonlordjl]

I agree, Qeltar. I am sick of "luck drops." I want something that requires multiple high skills (94+) to make. The virtual dice usually roll in favor of noobs, anyway, though. That level 80 with the rule hally gets his Visage and has no use for it, so he merchants it for tens of millions. Meanwhile, the people who really want one for the use (high levels) kill thousands of irons and do not get one. It's absurd. And what's funny is that anything that requires a lot of time and effort to obtain is absolutely horrible, stat-wise. Just look at Gold CW armor and Void Knight armor... Both SUCK EGGS, yet Gold CW requires over 100+ hours to obtain, and VK requires over 50 hours to obtain.

 

 

 

Personally here is what I would have liked to have seen from the Mithril Dragon update:

 

 

 

Each dragon you kill drops one mithril scale. You need to collect 250 mithril scales and then take them to one of the barbarians at the surface. He will trade you 1 "Mythical Fragment" for every 250 mithril scales. It takes two fragments + level 90 crafting and level 85 smithing to assemble the Dragon Full helm. Mythical fragments would be untradable, and the Dragon Full helm would have a +10 strength bonus. That's what I would have done with the update. It would have made the helmet far more desirable, and harder to obtain, yet still equally possible for everybody. If you put in the work, you would be guaranteed to get the reward. However, as it is now, there is no guarantee you will ever get a Dragon Large from a Mithril Dragon drop.

[Antaeus]

Caldius said it before me.

 

 

 

Mage Training Arena, Barbarian Assault, The Warriors guild (although it takes some virtual luck there), and Quests provide still sought-after rewards that are pretty much guaranteed if you put in the effort. Anyway...

 

 

 

Although luck helps a great deal, in the long run, "Good" players will have an advantage over those who are simply lucky (needing a boost to meet a requirement or have poorer gear or combat stats).

 

 

 

Level 85-89 vs Level 90+ Slayers at Dark Beasts, a Level 77 with a hally vs a 126 with a whip at Black Dragons...obviously the latter of those will get to "roll the dice" more often if given the same amount time. Not only that, but generally, as you get "Better" you can minimize costs and/or get kills more effectively. With some beasts, at a certain point you'll be making a profit regardless of whether or not you get a 'rare drop.' Being "Good" can only benefit you, in my opinion.

 

 

 

I just don't like the attitude "Oh, I'm so unlucky. I'll give up on this."

 

The dice can't roll themselves, you know? ;)

 

 

 

The mithril scale idea sounds quite appealing though :o

[Kiriyama]

I really gotta disagree here.

 

 

 

I play another game, theres a rare drop in one quest. NOw my cousin (when the item was available in all quests) got it in one try. (Well I got it for him). While I have farmed that one quest about 100+ times in order to get a Doom Weapon. I done it in two days, now I never got that helmet. Some complete newbie could however go in there and get it in one run.

 

 

 

THe main way of making money in that game is selling weapons you get. The quest I was doing had two sellbacks 179Gold and 230Gold. I relied on luck there, gotta admit I was quite lucky because about over half the things I got sold for 230 gold. While some other guy could go in there and get mostly things that sell for 179Gold.

 

 

 

Another thing was, while Farming that quest I was also tring to obtain a Movement Blade (best silver Sword (Non-DC)) I got plenty of Brilliant Blades, they are daggers. YEah I was pretty cheesed off, while my mate said he got too many Movement Blades on his MAge. Yet again luck is there.

 

 

 

So I'm more biased towards luck as it a system I have gotten used to. I wouldn't have it any other way.

 

 

 

There is gathering items in that game for another Item.

 

 

 

I farmed about 150 Defender Medals for the Red Imp II, Xan war was great for farming, and am up to my Dragon Defender Necklace V, that required 20+50+50+50+70=220 Defender MEdals, I may be a bit of by 20 or something.

 

 

 

Another thing was the Guardian Armour, that killed me with the gathering of items, it was soo boring. And there is some gathering for weapons, I.E 20 MoonGlow for the best DA light weapon, okay that wasn't that bad, it was brilliant exp.

[Sharane]

100% untradable and stackable drops off monsters to trade for items reminds me of World of Warcraft. You have to look at it on both sides:

 

 

 

Good: There's no probability involved to get something.

 

Bad: The item eventually loses its value and prestige (people in WoW who ever had a dungeon set armour know what I'm talking about).

 

Ugly: It will become so common people will complain about there not being an accomplished set of armour.

[hohto]

In my eyes this looks just another "this game is too much about luck" thread. If you ask me, you make your own luck: the drop ratios are the same for everyone and in a long run the one who kills most monsters gets the most drops. I have for example killed over 1k iron dragons + countless steels (counted 1007 iron dragon drops) and gotten only 1 skirt, no legs or other dragon items. So far I've recorded 274 mith dragon drops, best being half shield and 2nd best rune battle axe. However I was the first one ever to get a dark bow drop and managed to get 50m gp for it.

 

 

 

This current drop system is the fairest one there is. Now everyone got equal chances to get a rare drop. For example in your example 3, it could be visa versa and the lvl 77 could hally them for 2 weeks straight without the visage and the lvl 126 gets his from the first dragon.

 

 

 

I personally don't like these untradeable combat items in game: they harm pkin system quite a lot. With these powerful untradeable items the loots are worth less and your opponets are more dangerous. Also if once you get bored of it or it becomes useless to you, you can't just sell it and get a little payback for the work you've done.

 

 

 

The point is that in a short run luck has its role, but the longer you play the less it affects. It's like flipping a coin: if you and your mate chose your sides and throw the coin 1000 times, in the end you should have almost 500 heads and 500 tails. However if you throw it only 10 times, it can end to a certain win for one player.

[deathwalker]

If I look at the scales idea, I guess what you want is a drop system that garantees you get the item after x kills.

 

So let's say player A takes 1 kill to get a full drag helm (seen a post on it in rate this forum :) ) and player B who takes 1000 kills to get the same item. Then you propose the garantee of having it after 500 (scales) kills. There's no difference, except that instead of it being a gamble of lucky/unlucky, you play it safe. The whole concept of "good" and "bad" players is just ridiculous though, only the most experienced players "deserve" the drops? :roll:

 

it seems to be the principle of" trhe players who have worked hard enough on their skills, and are able to kill X number of dragons,should deserve the helm more than a someone who got lucky by maging it

[hohto]

it seems to be the principle of" trhe players who have worked hard enough on their skills, and are able to kill X number of dragons,should deserve the helm more than a someone who got lucky by maging it

 

 

 

The higher your levels are, the faster you kill the dragon. The faster you kill, the better chances you got to get the helm in shorter amount of time. The mager got as big chances to get the helm as people with 99 melee, magic and range. If he gets lucky, it's his win not your lose.

[Tennis_Ace]

Don't forget Treasure Trails luck, aka 3rd age items.

[qeltar]

 

The point is that in a short run luck has its role, but the longer you play the less it affects. It's like flipping a coin: if you and your mate chose your sides and throw the coin 1000 times, in the end you should have almost 500 heads and 500 tails. However if you throw it only 10 times, it can end to a certain win for one player.

 

 

 

The issue is that it isn't only in the short run that it's a problem. There are people who spend dozens of hours trying to get an item and can't -- not because they are lacking in skill or patience, but because they are just unlucky.

 

 

 

Other people get the item in less than an hour.

 

 

 

Sure, that's life to some extent. But Jagex has the ability to make updates where luck is not the PRIMARY determining factor of whether or not you get an item.

 

 

 

Getting a draconic visage as a drop removes, for me, much of the sense of accomplishment. Even if I had gotten it on my first dragon kill, would I be able to tell myself I had really accomplished anything other than being lucky?

 

 

 

~q

[DeadPolkaDots1]

I agree with the majority of your post. I definitely think that the items they release could be debuted in a more creative fashion. But like it has been said, for most of the beasts you have to kill for that certain drop, requires skills and combat. But I do hope in the future Jagex will make more interesting ways to obtain sought after items, but meh, I'm baised, as I'm generally unlucky when it comes to drops.

 

 

 

I see you posting on the RSOF alot Quel as well, nice to see you sharing your views here at Tif. :)

[hohto]

The issue is that it isn't only in the short run that it's a problem. There are people who spend dozens of hours trying to get an item and can't -- not because they are lacking in skill or patience, but because they are just unlucky.

 

 

 

Still, the odds are the same for everyone. I don't see any problem in that. What would be your solution for taking away the luck factor and still left the excitement?

[qeltar]

Still, the odds are the same for everyone. I don't see any problem in that.

 

 

 

You've totally missed the point. The current system makes getting a draconic visage far more about luck than skill.

 

 

 

~q

[Sly_Wizard]

The problem with the whole "It evens out over the long run!" argument is that people who have horrendous 'luck' (I use that term very losely) won't continue to kill an NPC for extended periods of time. That's just a fact of life.

 

 

 

It may very well be that if two players both killed 1,000 mithril dragons that they'd both get 4 larges, but player A could get his 4 larges on his first 4 kills while player B gets his larges on his last 4 kills. Of course, player B probably would never see those larges as (s)he will have given up LONG before then.

[Jimmyw3000]

I disagree with the point. I was getting the skull sceptre and i spent nearly a week on it because the catablepons weren't dropping their part. Sure, it's annoying when your friend comes and tells you he got the WHOLE thing in two hours but it's all part of the game. You just need to keep trying.

 

 

 

Luck's a major part of any and all games and it's what keeps them exciting. If a game had no luck, what fun would it be? You'd be exactly like everyone else. Luck separates us apart and makes a game fun.

 

 

 

Think, what game has no luck and is based entirely on skill?

 

 

 

JW

[qeltar]

 

Think, what game has no luck and is based entirely on skill?

 

JW

 

 

 

Chess. But that's neither here nor there.

 

 

 

I am not asking for all luck to be taken out of the game, just for a bit of reasonable balance.

 

 

 

For example, there could be a way that if you don't get a d large drop after killing 1,000 mith dragons, Otto makes you perform a task for him, then awards you one as a thank-you from the Barbarians.

 

 

 

Or whatever. There are many ways to do this.

 

 

 

~q