Grand exchange got strange prices

[qeltar]

Game needs a new tagline...

 

 

 

"Stand around doing nothing with millions at the Grand Exchange!"

 

 

 

:D

 

 

 

When prices settle down and the GE arrives at the new equilibrium prices, will you post apologies as vigorously as you're currently posting complaints? Just curious.

 

 

 

Three days ago I said that Jagex's attempt at price controls would have no impact on "stabilizing the market", and said the system was way too slow to adjust to changes.

 

 

 

Here we are three days later with prices of almost everything in a freefall, and the GE still deadlocked and useless on most items. I'm not expecting any apologies from all the people who flamed me on Monday.

[quitthegame]

 

 

 

Three days ago I said that Jagex's attempt at price controls would have no impact on "stabilizing the market", and said the system was way too slow to adjust to changes.

 

 

 

Here we are three days later with prices of almost everything in a freefall, and the GE still deadlocked and useless on most items. I'm not expecting any apologies from all the people who flamed me on Monday.

 

 

 

As soon as we saw that prices were only adjusting by 5% per day it was obvious that it would take weeks to reach any kind of equilibrium, so I'm not sure where your "Here we are three days later" point came from. Seriously, if you grow more impatient hourly for something that is clearly weeks away, how do you deal with real life? I'm seriously asking that.

 

 

 

Let's say it's 2-3 weeks down the road, and items have achieved price equilibrium somewhat. I still think the GE will be screwed up, what we are seeing now with gold bars may be an indication of a problem, possibly. According to what I've read on this forum, they are stuck at 220 each and not moving downwards, when their price on forums is more like 110-150 each. Let's say that there are 4 million gold bars on offer for minimum price, and about 500 per day are being bought by people who just need 1 or 2 for a quest or one piece of jewelry. This is not that farfetched, as anyone needing any quantity would go to forums. Let's further imagine that near or over 50% of those ppl buying 1 gold bar are too lazy/ill-informed to hit the minimum offer button and offer the medium price. Would the GE algorithms take this data and keep the price of gold bars steady at 220 minimum each? It seems unlikely for a number of reasons, but it's one explanation for the purported behavior of GE gold bar prices over the past few days. If that's true, then obviously the GE algorithms need a lot of optimization. The other theory that's floated around is that possibly Jagex has set price minimums on some items in the GE, this seems very unlikely and undesirable, we shall see though.

 

 

 

Anyways, I'll try my original post again with the seemingly unnecessary qualifications you clearly need: 4-5 weeks later when the GE is finally stabilized and handling most trade in RS, as it probably will be, will you make copious apologies equal to your current denunciations? Just curious.

 

 

 

p.s. Why is it bad that prices are in a freefall? It was obvious that as people cleared out their banks that prices would go down, but why is that a problem? You cry out for market forces to be allowed to have free rein, and then when market forces send prices downwards you complain...

[Joooely]

The system seems pretty weird, either it's run automatically so the price drops or increases depending on how low or high people are buying and selling for (which can quite possibly be abused), or it's done manually by jagex, which would take a heck of a lot of work to keep track of prices for every item.

 

 

 

If you ask me, I would say remove it completely, let people sell what they want for however much they want, limitng the amount you can buy/sell for is plain supidity.

[qeltar]

 

As soon as we saw that prices were only adjusting by 5% per day it was obvious that it would take weeks to reach any kind of equilibrium, so I'm not sure where your "Here we are three days later" point came from.

 

 

It was meant more as a comment on the "stability" goal. The economy is not stable; it is dropping. Now, one can rightly argue that it is dropping less quickly than it would have if Jagex had let the market float. At the same time, though, the price controls are almost certainly going to guarantee that the price corrections will overshoot where they would have gone otherwise, for a variety of reasons.

 

 

Seriously, if you grow more impatient hourly for something that is clearly weeks away, how do you deal with real life? I'm seriously asking that.

 

 

I'm not impatient, because there's nothing I'm really waiting for. The problems with the GE are systemic, and it is not going to be a functional exchange in three weeks, three months or three years unless Jagex relaxes its noose on prices and lets buyers and sellers make their own choices.

 

 

The other theory that's floated around is that possibly Jagex has set price minimums on some items in the GE, this seems very unlikely and undesirable, we shall see though.

 

 

They've already said they won't let prices drop below what a shop would buy for. That in and of itself will cause problems, and also reflects a lack of understanding of the market.

 

 

Anyways, I'll try my original post again with the seemingly unnecessary qualifications you clearly need: 4-5 weeks later when the GE is finally stabilized and handling most trade in RS, as it probably will be, will you make copious apologies equal to your current denunciations? Just curious.

 

 

I have no problems with admitting when I am wrong. I've done so before. But again, understand that the problems here go far beyond just this initial adjustment period. Prices of items change every week, and the GE is not only going to not function well when this happens, it is going to directly lead to people getting ripped off.

 

 

p.s. Why is it bad that prices are in a freefall?

 

 

 

 

It's not "bad", it's simply confirmation of what I've been saying, which is that you cannot prevent a market correction with price controls. By dragging it out, Jagex is greatly INCREASING the chances of the prices falling further than they should, by giving people days and weeks to wring their hands over what should have been over with on Monday.

[Celestrana]

The Grand Exchange is there but you don't have to use it if you prefer to "penetrate" into World 2 and spend several hours typing the same thing over a million times in the hopes of attracting somebody's attention so that you can sell off your wares.

[quitthegame]

 

It was meant more as a comment on the "stability" goal. The economy is not stable; it is dropping. Now, one can rightly argue that it is dropping less quickly than it would have if Jagex had let the market float. At the same time, though, the price controls are almost certainly going to guarantee that the price corrections will overshoot where they would have gone otherwise, for a variety of reasons.

 

 

 

I wouldn't say the economy is dropping. I'd say the market prices are dropping, since supply has increased from people clearing out their banks. I'm not convinced that a slow drop in prices will result in a worse correction than a fast drop, not that I'd lose sleep either way. Heh. I'd just try to buy at the bottom, sounds kinda fun.

 

 

 

 

 

I'm not impatient, because there's nothing I'm really waiting for. The problems with the GE are systemic, and it is not going to be a functional exchange in three weeks, three months or three years unless Jagex relaxes its noose on prices and lets buyers and sellers make their own choices.

 

 

 

5% change per day isn't a noose. It's a speed limit. I personally don't like speed limits, but I'm certainly not going to die from one. We'll see in a month though.

 

 

 

They've already said they won't let prices drop below what a shop would buy for. That in and of itself will cause problems, and also reflects a lack of understanding of the market.

 

 

 

That's kinda weird... how could prices drop that low anyways? This seems lame and pointless but maybe I'm missing some exploit.

 

 

 

 

I have no problems with admitting when I am wrong. I've done so before. But again, understand that the problems here go far beyond just this initial adjustment period. Prices of items change every week, and the GE is not only going to not function well when this happens, it is going to directly lead to people getting ripped off.

 

 

 

Sure prices change every week, but the GE will theoretically allow prices to change by (1.05)^7 every week [1.41] How many items realistically vary by more than that every week? It's even possible that the GE will stabilize prices, by reducing arbitrage, and increasing the size of the market, we may see prices fluctuate less in the future. Eventually.

 

 

 

It's not "bad", it's simply confirmation of what I've been saying, which is that you cannot prevent a market correction with price controls. By dragging it out, Jagex is greatly INCREASING the chances of the prices falling further than they should, by giving people days and weeks to wring their hands over what should have been over with on Monday.

 

 

 

But no one is claiming that Jagex wanted to prevent a market correction, so what's the purpose of disproving it? I mean, even if I missed someone claiming that, it wouldn't have struck me as worth refuting since it wouldn't have been credible. I mean, I wish RS had EVE online's AH system, which is super free and has a lot of nice features, but oh well.

 

 

 

edit: These nutty fixed price floors are starting to look more and more likely. ~_~ What a loony idea to put those in :(

[lordkafei]

As to the rune axe situation, you will probably always be able to get 15-20K in Seers for a rune axe - especially if it is more convenient than going to the GE, throwing down cash and coming back.

 

 

 

I always accept anything people offer between 15-20K anyways.

 

 

 

As to some of the other prices:

 

 

 

I am beginning to wonder if there is a floor price which items will not go below - an absolute rock-bottom price.

 

 

 

I have noticed willow logs are not moving below 22gp, yet none of mine have sold yet at this price, and they have been listed all week.

[folmer_veeman]

GE was meant to kill high alch prices, jagex wants to stop inflation, and alching brings LOTS of gold in the economy

[fx1970]

I think it is us t a question of time and that price will find their balance in a few weeks.

 

 

 

The idea of GE is just great as it is stupid losing tons of time just for buying and selling, which is not the aim of the game.

 

 

 

Jagex tried to set prices at correct level, but they mess some prices (like maple logs...).

 

 

 

Now the offer and demand will do their job and will make prices evoluate to what the market (us) want to pay/receive for any item.

 

 

 

As soon as it is the case, the GE will be efficient, well nearly efficient.

 

 

 

To be really effective, I think that Jagex shoudl add another functionality:

 

- The view on current Bid and ask prices and the volume associated to it.

 

That will enable peoople wanting to buy or sell to know if there are people currently buying or selling. Currently you don't know and often there is no buyer or no seller. With that, you will be able to see the deepness of the current maket, which in my opininon is essential.

 

 

 

After this, I think the exchange will be awesome (buty maybe 6 trade at the same time is maybe a bit not enough. I would prefer 6 buy and 6 sell, but if price mechanism is ok, then it won't be a problem anymore

[Capone_Sabre]

I am beginning to wonder if there is a floor price which items will not go below - an absolute rock-bottom price.

 

 

 

I have noticed willow logs are not moving below 22gp, yet none of mine have sold yet at this price, and they have been listed all week.

 

 

 

Yeah I have been wondering that too. A lot of the potions I am selling haven't gone down in price for 2-3 days, despite me having thousands of each on the exchange since monday and not selling a single one. :?

[fx1970]

Also, GE will help reduce price discrepancies between different item as now people can do Arbitrage.

 

 

 

A very good example of this is the price of Chaos and Onyx.

 

 

 

If 1 price goes down, then people will see the opportunity to buy choas to buy cheaper onyx and then reslling it with profit, this will help prices to be coherent thanks to the arbitrage done (same as in the Stock exchange with multi listed securities)

[sessie]

From my experience i can tell that players are in some sort of waiting line. If like 500 people sell 100 rune axes for the lowest price, then the buyers automaticly buy them from the person who put it up first. This causes to have long periods without 1 sold item and 1 short period in which everything you have gets sold. This wont effect the market at a whole but it does effect the people with 0 patience, if you remove the items meanwhile and put them up again, you'll be put on the end of the line.

[liquidsky]

This is what I want to see:

 

Either online on the rs website (external to the game client) or in game as part of the exchange

 

 

 

 

 

 

layout based on the betfair betting exchange

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

and just as an added bonus (members feature):

 

[qeltar]

 

I wouldn't say the economy is dropping. I'd say the market prices are dropping, since supply has increased from people clearing out their banks. I'm not convinced that a slow drop in prices will result in a worse correction than a fast drop, not that I'd lose sleep either way. Heh. I'd just try to buy at the bottom, sounds kinda fun.

 

 

My belief is that a slow drop is worse for three reasons. First, it prolongs the 'pain' of prices dropping for those who don't want to see them drop. Second, it gives more time for people to see the prices slowly dropping and to jump on the bandwagon, which makes the imbalance of supply and demand worse. Finally, the lack of responsiveness of the market will tend to lead to overcorrection and then oscillations.

 

 

5% change per day isn't a noose. It's a speed limit. I personally don't like speed limits, but I'm certainly not going to die from one. We'll see in a month though.

 

 

The speed limit you are seeing is manifesting itself in terms of a lack of volume. Most items just don't sell except in a trickle.

 

 

 

A 5% price move limit is simply, flatly ridiculous. I've never seen or heard of such a thing in any market of any type anywhere in the real world OR the online world.

 

 

Sure prices change every week, but the GE will theoretically allow prices to change by (1.05)^7 every week [1.41] How many items realistically vary by more than that every week?

 

 

Many items change in price by more than 5% during each DAY.

 

 

 

Other items go up and down and the GE system cannot properly adjust for them.

 

 

 

Another problem is that this fixed system can't take into account motivation levels. It is impossible for anyone to entice a seller to put something on the exchange by offering more than its 'fair market value'. It's ridiculous.

 

 

 

There is also the matter of changes to the values of items when updates come out. Remember what happened to the prices of prayer pots when GWD came out? Or bolts when they fixed crossbows?

 

 

 

How about the dragon axe when they made it cut faster? The price tripled in an hour. It would take the GE a month to catch up with that. What would have happened in the meantime? Merchants would have gone to the GE on the morning of the update and bought out every d axe for the highest price possible, and the people who had them listed for sale would log in to find out they got ripped off by 2 million.

 

 

 

Remember when Hunter came out and suddenly swamp tar was valuable? It went from a value of basically nothing, maybe 5 gp, up to like 1k in 2 days. How long would the GE take to adjust to this change?

 

 

 

Oh, three months.

 

 

It's even possible that the GE will stabilize prices, by reducing arbitrage, and increasing the size of the market, we may see prices fluctuate less in the future. Eventually.

 

 

On the contrary. If the GE worked properly, it would have taken over from all the other markets, greatly reducing their volume. Almost everyone would be using it, and that would cut down on arbitrage.

 

 

 

Now, since the prices in the GE are out of whack, arbitrage is very possible just by moving goods between the GE and other markets.

 

 

But no one is claiming that Jagex wanted to prevent a market correction, so what's the purpose of disproving it?

 

 

They claimed that they wanted "market stability". I suppose one could argue about what exactly that's supposed to mean. Perhaps that just means they don't want prices swinging back and forth, and yeah, the GE as it is now will do that, but at what cost? A completely dysfunctional marketplace.

[qeltar]

From my experience i can tell that players are in some sort of waiting line. If like 500 people sell 100 rune axes for the lowest price, then the buyers automaticly buy them from the person who put it up first. This causes to have long periods without 1 sold item and 1 short period in which everything you have gets sold. This wont effect the market at a whole but it does effect the people with 0 patience, if you remove the items meanwhile and put them up again, you'll be put on the end of the line.

 

 

 

This exists because the market cannot stabilize, due to the price controls. The problem is that some items are so backed up with sellers that new sellers will never have a chance to move their items.

 

 

 

Also, the advice about removing items doesn't work, because when prices change you have to relist items and then you're at the back of the line again.

[x1992x]

Nature Runes: 310gp each

 

Yew Longs: 800-900gp (exact numbers i forget) ---> kills alching for lvls

 

Hard Leather: 250gp

 

Lobsters: 230gp (most people sell for 250ea in Edgeville)

 

 

 

The gems prices are also off a little (or so my friend tells me)

 

 

 

why do ppl that the MUST sell there items in G.E?

 

 

 

if the price is wrong sell them in w2 or forum :D

 

just because G.E say it worth X amont of money it donst mean the street prices is the same :roll:

[quitthegame]

 

A 5% price move limit is simply, flatly ridiculous. I've never seen or heard of such a thing in any market of any type anywhere in the real world OR the online world.

 

 

 

Well the NYSE has a 30% index limit per day, which leads me to believe that there may be other such limits in other markets. Since the prices in RS are inherently much more stable than the prices in the real world, a 5% index limit for RS would really be plenty. However, the 5% per item limit is quite inflexible. I still believe that it would be enough for most of the items most of the time, but now that we're hearing talk of inflexible price floors that items can't go below, i'm losing some faith in the system.

 

 

 

Many items change in price by more than 5% during each DAY.

 

 

 

And why is that? Periodic daily fluctuations are because during some parts of the day there are more sellers--during other parts there are more buyers. I.e, it comes down to RWT, and which countries are on which ends of RWT. The GE could have damped those price fluctuations down, since people can leave items up while they sleep it would have minimized this influence. Nonperiodic fluctuations are usually due to updates, and while these can be large, they are infrequent and ... well amusing.

 

 

 

I have not much reply to your next 6 paragraphs, I agree with it all. I suppose I will say that the point is , to ask why Jagex wants to prevent price manipulation using the GE with these strict limits, when every other MMO allows price manipulation using their AH. I've played personally 5-6 other MMO's recently with AH's, none had this system. The only thing that makes sense to me is that they think merching large amounts of money is too much temptation to RWT.

 

 

 

What you say about merchants ripping ppl off after updates... I just can't get indignant about that, it's kinda funny. Don't leave stuff on the GE before update day? If you want to play it safe.

 

 

 

They claimed that they wanted "market stability". I suppose one could argue about what exactly that's supposed to mean. Perhaps that just means they don't want prices swinging back and forth, and yeah, the GE as it is now will do that, but at what cost? A completely dysfunctional marketplace.

 

 

 

I've always interpreted that to mean they don't want price manipulation. Perhaps Jagex really does feel the merching is immoral, hard to say. It's actually reasonable to suppose that since so many famous stakers/merchants have been busted for RWT, that Jagex has become quite disillusioned by both those activities. Guilt by association isn't just a fallacy, it's an emotional response hardwired into the human psyche.

[no_way2go]

Just give the GE some time... prices will settle!

 

 

 

I'll give the example of the rune axes, of wich I have a nice amount myself as being a rune smit, now they are 14.901gp each (14.154-15.674 gp), coming very close to the price of a rune bar wich costs 13.780 gp (13.091-14.469 gp) now.

 

Looks like the axes are even going to drop more since there is allot of supply but little demand, even at the lowest price...

 

 

 

The economy will stabilize itself...

 

 

 

The GE has shown me some new ways to get smithing and magic xp at the same time as making money, great update :

[Pyrex]

I think they should let players make the prices up themselves, but if the price they're setting is way below or above the usual market price then the GE offers you to place the items into Party Hall Chest or simply won't take the items.

 

Also they could keep the price range they have in there, but it's not the limits just so that there won't be scammers selling whips for 3M and people not realising it's a scam.

[iklmarki]

Black Mask - its like 400k?

 

 

 

thats 100k off

 

 

 

Guilded Skirt - its like 133k? (might be unaccurate)

[x1992x]

Black Mask - its like 400k?

 

 

 

thats 100k off

 

 

 

Guilded Skirt - its like 133k? (might be unaccurate)

 

 

 

then dont sell your blk mask in G.E? :x :( :roll:

[iklmarki]

Black Mask - its like 400k?

 

 

 

thats 100k off

 

 

 

Guilded Skirt - its like 133k? (might be unaccurate)

 

 

 

then dont sell your blk mask in G.E? :x :( :roll:

 

 

 

i'm not lol, i'm just saying. Made around 17m for new defence pure and i'm not going to lose 100k off a rubbish deal

[amitoz]

if you r not happy with the prices stop using the grand exchange...

 

 

 

I think it's fair to say by looking at your stats that you probably do not even know what the grand exchange is. If we are trying to sell something and you have nothing positive to say then please refrain from posting. It burns me up when people who have no idea WTF they're talking about post on someone's thread that is trying to help RS for the greater good. Thank you.

[x1992x]

if you r not happy with the prices stop using the grand exchange...

 

 

 

I think it's fair to say by looking at your stats that you probably do not even know what the grand exchange is. If we are trying to sell something and you have nothing positive to say then please refrain from posting. It burns me up when people who have no idea WTF they're talking about post on someone's thread that is trying to help RS for the greater good. Thank you.

 

 

 

lol nice insult :roll:

 

 

 

i know what G.E is. i studied it hard the last days. and i agree, dont like, dont use it :-# i also agree he could have posted more then just that comment :uhh:

[JimmyMcNabb]

indeed the prices are a bit high or low. they will become right eventually however.

 

 

 

As it's a new release, it'll be a bit iffy to start with but give it a week or two and it'll have stabalised