Theory: New Tradable Rares wouldn't be worth it

[darkblade986]

NOTE: Before anyone flames this, this is not a request that new Holiday Items be tradable. On the contrary, this is an artical that I hope will stop all of these suggestions once and for all, despite the threads constantly being locked anyways.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is a theory I thought up a while back. Well, not necessarily a theory, but an idea that a small handful of people don't seem to understand. Here's what it is: New Tradable Holiday Items would have absolutely no market value for years, if they were released in the way the old ones were. This theory is based on the facts of human nature.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

What I mean, to quote another relevant phrase, is "Monkey See, Monkey Do." We all see that Party Hats and the other rare items have skyrocketed in price because they were released on one day only, and that day was years ago. Now people are asking for these items to be dropped again so that they can get them and sell them quickly too.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Another analogy: On Christmas, have you ever had this 1 toy you really wanted above all the rest? Then come that fateful day, you look under the tree, unwrap your present and there the gift sits? I'm sure we all have.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Flash forward from that day 2 weeks. The toy has become absolutely boring because you have done everything there possibly is with that toy. The toy now sits on the top shelf of your closet, destined to spend the rest of it's days dusty and unwanted.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Back on topic, one major problem arises with a new Holiday Item that can be traded: Everyone will know about the potential for a huge price and everyone will do the EXACT SAME THING. Everyone will gather up hundreds of the new "rare" and the item will become unrare now. The item will have no value because everyone has them and everyone is trying to sell them. Now given, someone might get wise and try and buy them off quickly, but at least half of the potential sellers are probably gonna try and start the prices way up in the 10M range.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The way Jagex is doing Holiday Events now is exactly how it should've been before: We have to do a mini-quest for the local NPC, and in return, we receive the one time item. We also have plenty of time to get these items so that everyone has an equal chance to get them, not those with the outrageous budgets in the billions.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jagex may not be stopping Holiday Items from being tradable for the reason I have just stated, but it is still good enough. Now then, please stop making all these threads, either on these forums, on Rune Hq, on the Official Forums, or anywhere, that you want to see a new Tradable Holiday Item, because it will not work out how you think.

[darkmage099]

Good point...What is wrong with non-tradable rares? This should not happen because there is no problem occurring right now.

[Peronix]

Yes, also there's the fact that the first rares, phats, were only dropped on ONE day, and the community was much smaller then. Now the community consists of millions of people, and Jagex usually extends it to two weeks now.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And your theory is pretty much correct. On another online game that I play periodically, they release 'rares' every year. The first ones ever released are worth hundreds of millions. But the newer rares haven't gone up at ALL in a few years, since a lot of people have them.

[Myweponsg00d]

Actually, I'm pretty sure a similar thing would still happen. Sure, everyone would stockpile them, but then one has to think of the two different types of investors. Long term and short term. The long term investors will do everything they can to get as many of the rare as possible. This includes buying them up from other short term investors. Then, a price war starts between the long term investors which gets the price rise started. Then, it just goes out of control from there.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

People who invest hundreds of millions on the new rare end up getting banned, then poof...a bunch of that item is now gone.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

More events like this happen, and the object increases in rarity. Etc, etc...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I do, however, think that most of the RS population would be long term investors and hold onto their items. However, if a noob gets offered 50-100k on his item he only had for like a week, I'm pretty sure he'd sell. I'd think that once the item reached in the couple mil range, the majority of RS would sell off their items. Then all of the insanely rich buy those, merchant them, and now santas are 20m+....errrr...no, this isnt what happened with santa hats.... :-w

[Saru Inc]

Ok, well I think that there should still be tradeble holiday items. Not so I can stock up and maybe 10 years down the road sell for 400m each.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But because just incase I miss the two weeks that it was out, then I'm messed over. Also, I bet that if they were tradeble, they'd look cooler. 'Cuz we all know that the untradeble items are like hella ugly.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just my thoughts,

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

~Saruman44

[spikerkid]

Ya if they release another rare then will never raise to 5m+... To many people would coleect them and never let go of them, so no body would be able to alch them.

[DRUMINATOR17]

"the only way to to make progress is to learn from the mistakes of your past"

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(or something like that from someone i dont know thats famous or something like that)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

basically what is the past will stay the past, jagex will continue to learn from its past and these said instances wont happen again

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

that being said...this is a good thing anyways

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

i almost want to say that jagex having made the first few sets of rares tradeable was a good thing... and that whenever you see a person walking around runescape that you know that they are a player of decent status or wealth to afford said item...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

then again (dont know the percentages however) the smarter half of me knows that the above statements are not the case...and that many a people did buy these items from people for rather cheap a few days after their realise and stockpiled them

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

and being able to come back to a video game years later and being worth a hell of a luta gold pieces because of your extended absence makes no sence to me at all

[LGBR]

I've been saying this for a while, people just dont realise every other idiot like them will collect hundreds of them

[Madder_Atkha]

I completely agree with this. In fact I think that other items like this (the new TTs, barrow's armours, etc) should be made untradeable as well. :twisted: But thatll never happen. :(

[Duke_Freedom]

I strongly disagree with what was said in this topic. You all seem to miss the real point of rares, which is not their present value, but their consistent price growth, which is roughly equal of all wearable rares when expressed as a rate.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Let's take a purely theoretical approach to this and let's assume that Jagex would introduce new tradable holiday items as being handed out one per person. Let's say this roughly means that there will be 5 million of that new tradable holiday item.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So the question is... What would happen?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We could give a very rough and theoretical guesstimate of the price of the new rare when it is introduced by looking at the total market value of other rares. Santa hat's are probably the best for comparison.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Let's first assume that there are 15,000 santa hats. Multiplying that number with the current price of a santa hat (~23mil) gives us a total market value for santa hat's of ~345bil. Now, since we are taking a purely theoretical approach, we can say that the expected market value of the new rare would roughly be the same, which means that the price of the new rare would roughly be 345bil / 5mil (the available number of the new rare) = ~70K.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

However, as I said, the key point of rares is not their current price, but the price growth rate of rares. This new rare should (again: theoretically) follow exactly the same price growth rate that the other rares have.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Therefore the new rare will essentially act the same as the old rares, with the difference that the new rare will be much more in the reach of people with smaller budgets. Thus it literally provides everyone the chance to buy and own rares.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

What I've always found ironic and never really understood either is that all those people who always try to convince everyone that "rares are unfair" seem to be completely against the idea of new tradable rares as well, while new tradable rares give everyone the option to profit from the concept of rares, effectively nullifying the total "unfair" arguement.

[cyco]

They would rise ONLY because people would buy them all to stock up on to hang onto for future sales.

[Tbfgraphx14]

This isn't a notice, it's a fact

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I've noticed this along time ago. Hasn't everyone else?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It's obvious isn't it? :-s

[mojo477]

and with the p hats almost no one knew there potential and people dropped them 4 bank space and such so many ppl never kept the tradible rares until it was too late

 

 

 

and especially half wine and disk of returning was very random rares

[darkblade986]

I strongly disagree with what was said in this topic. You all seem to miss the real point of rares, which is not their present value, but their consistent price growth, which is roughly equal of all wearable rares when expressed as a rate.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Let's take a purely theoretical approach to this and let's assume that Jagex would introduce new tradable holiday items as being handed out one per person. Let's say this roughly means that there will be 5 million of that new tradable holiday item.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So the question is... What would happen?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We could give a very rough and theoretical guesstimate of the price of the new rare when it is introduced by looking at the total market value of other rares. Santa hat's are probably the best for comparison.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Let's first assume that there are 15,000 santa hats. Multiplying that number with the current price of a santa hat (~23mil) gives us a total market value for santa hat's of ~345bil. Now, since we are taking a purely theoretical approach, we can say that the expected market value of the new rare would roughly be the same, which means that the price of the new rare would roughly be 345bil / 5mil (the available number of the new rare) = ~70K.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

However, as I said, the key point of rares is not their current price, but the price growth rate of rares. This new rare should (again: theoretically) follow exactly the same price growth rate that the other rares have.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Therefore the new rare will essentially act the same as the old rares, with the difference that the new rare will be much more in the reach of people with smaller budgets. Thus it literally provides everyone the chance to buy and own rares.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

What I've always found ironic and never really understood either is that all those people who always try to convince everyone that "rares are unfair" seem to be completely against the idea of new tradable rares as well, while new tradable rares give everyone the option to profit from the concept of rares, effectively nullifying the total "unfair" arguement.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes, but your argument is all but thrown out the door by the fact that everyone knows that they have the potential to be worth a fortune, so rather than 5M of the item being in existance, the number would probably end up at like 20M at least.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

At this point, not many people will sell hoping the price goes up and they can get a quick buck.

[foofoomagoo]

i think that if this does indeed occur then the first day, people who want to stock pile them will buy for high prices, but after that they wont make any money

[harryp0tt3rules]

I have the same theory, and my friends agree with me :D

[toast647]

if they make new holiday items tradable, they wont be rare simply put.

[Omali]

if they make new holiday items tradable, they wont be rare simply put.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

He's got a point.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unless, in like 2010, they start making the old stuff tradeable year by year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2010: Scythe and bunny ears

 

 

 

2011: Yo-yo

 

 

 

2012: Scarves, marionettes, rubber chicken, zombie head

 

 

 

2013: Etc

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Seems like a bad system to me, although after 7 years they will definitely be rare.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'd sell mine if they became tradeable. Not because of their value, but because they wouldn't have any worth to them anymore, they'd lose their status as a time-spent-playing symbol.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Imagine how amazed people will be in 2009 when you show them a yo-yo. That's what I think when I do the holiday events. Don't think right now, think years from now.

[toast647]

jagex has stated they will never make the untradable holiday items tradable

[BrineShrimp]

You took the words out of my mouth, give dem back!

[slimysteve]

I think at first they would rise crasily as people think they will rise higher and therefore stock up in them. Within a week the hype would go down and they would settle at some low number, like 20k or something. Nothing much would happen for a few years, but then you get the same problem..

[Duke_Freedom]

Yes, but your argument is all but thrown out the door by the fact that everyone knows that they have the potential to be worth a fortune, so rather than 5M of the item being in existance, the number would probably end up at like 20M at least.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

At this point, not many people will sell hoping the price goes up and they can get a quick buck.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Apparently you didn't read what I said, since I just assumed everyone was handed out one of the new rare. Furthermore, it doesn't even matter if there would be 20 million in existance - it doesn't change anything to the concept of rares, which is that they will go up on the long-term as long as the general game conditions (with key factors being player population growth and inflation) don't change.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plenty of people knew what happened with phats by the time santa's were introduced - santa's are worth millions now as well and there were plenty of people who had stocked up on 100's of them.

[hipyhop00]

but how many people have the same views as you and drop them. people get banned (i lost a santa hat which is another lost) how many people give them to lvl 3 mules and they get banned, how many people accidently die and lose it with no one around how many people quit with them so they will grow in value and of these how many accounts get deleted from not being used.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

but how many of you were playing runescape at christmas 2001 and just happend to miss that one day? im willing to bet alot theres not one person

[darkblade986]

jagex has stated they will never make the untradable holiday items tradable

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Did you not read my "disclaimer" at the top? This was not a suggestion to make them tradable, this was me trying to stop all the people who want them to become tradable...

[ValaraZ]

Let's make an assumption.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Say that there amount of X ppl playing the game on christmas eve. Let's also assume that the amount of dropped items is Y. Since we all know what happened with other tradeable rares we can safely assume that the amount of collected items of those that were dropped (Z) would be around Y, not quite but allmost. Now, if we assume that one player gets like 10 of those new items he then dreams that they will one day be worth of something and of course at first they will be attempted to sell at 1m gp each.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But since there is no market for them the price would rapidly fall to under 100k.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now, if there was a group of people that spent alot of money on purchasing these items for a ridiccilous amount of money they would seize the control of those items and would be able to control the market price.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Of course this wouldn't happen in a day and many ppl would think like i did and therefore tried to buy these "rares" for that low price since some day they would be worth something.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If you are able to control the flow of certain item in the market then you can control the prices by reducing the flow at times and increasing at other times. This is been done with santa hats all the time when manipulator groups crash the price and then lift it up again.