Do you believe in such thing...

[thatguy9494]

Yeah I don't think drops are in any actual order. When I was trying to get the pieces of the skull sceptre, it took me about two days just to get the piece that the catablepons drop. After I got all the pieces, I tried to get another set of pieces for the sceptre in case something happened to it. When I went back to the catablepons, I only had to kill about three of them and I got the piece.

[Dragons_Might]

I can try to explain why I think that isn't true. Refer to Jard's post. (Hi Jard btw :lol: )

 

 

 

I'm a programmer. Yes, Jagex could easily do something like this - decreasing drop rates depending on the amount of time you've been in an area of the number of certain monsters you've killed, but I doubt they do as it would be kind of silly. Obtaining a rare drop would become increasingly rare the more monsters you've killed, whereas it should, at least theoretically, become decreasingly rare (although this is technically an illusion) as you kill more monsters.

 

 

 

Refer to the part ... At least theoretically, become decreasingly rare (although this is technically an illusion).

 

 

 

That's the main point. There is no such thing as "This drop is 1 in 250, or 1 in 500, etc" those are estimates, but an illusion. Every time you kill a monster the numbers are re rolled and randomly (ok fine, since random is impossible, it finds) what drop to give. Each drop will not affect your next, every kill you just get a new roll and chance at a new drop, but just because you have killed any number does not affect anything in the future. You can go 1 billion kills with no particular drop, and no closer to it, it all depends on what item is chanced at the kill.

[Squisher_33]

i dont blieve in the penalty thing as me and most of my friends drops completely contridict that but also nothing in rs is random

 

 

 

to go further nothing is random period, not even rolling a dice since its based exactly how it lands and the durface it lands on and at what hight and angle it drops on

[Wisp]

I can try to explain why I think that isn't true. Refer to Jard's post. (Hi Jard btw :lol: )

 

 

 

I'm a programmer. Yes, Jagex could easily do something like this - decreasing drop rates depending on the amount of time you've been in an area of the number of certain monsters you've killed, but I doubt they do as it would be kind of silly. Obtaining a rare drop would become increasingly rare the more monsters you've killed, whereas it should, at least theoretically, become decreasingly rare (although this is technically an illusion) as you kill more monsters.

 

 

 

Refer to the part ... At least theoretically, become decreasingly rare (although this is technically an illusion).

 

 

 

That's the main point. There is no such thing as "This drop is 1 in 250, or 1 in 500, etc" those are estimates, but an illusion. Every time you kill a monster the numbers are re rolled and randomly (ok fine, since random is impossible, it finds) what drop to give. Each drop will not affect your next, every kill you just get a new roll and chance at a new drop, but just because you have killed any number does not affect anything in the future. You can go 1 billion kills with no particular drop, and no closer to it, it all depends on what item is chanced at the kill.

 

Couldn't the chances be real though? if it pics a "random" variable, and there are 300 possible variables, and the one with the whatever drop is say, #56, wouldn't the chances be 1/300 for every drop?

[MicroLegionnaire]

Argh, all the numbers and speculation...

 

 

 

I prefer to go by the following principle

 

 

 

"Things Just Happen"

 

 

 

Although I've penalty for repeatedly killing monsters for a certain drop sounds likely. I got a Guthan's spear first time I went to barrows, never gotten anything worth much since...

[DarkDude]

I'de say it might exist. I got my first dragon legs drop after like, 20 steels. Ive killed AT LEAST 250 more and havent got another dragon drop or visage since.

 

 

 

I had to kill 2965 irons for a single visage... they don't come easy. And I've never heard of beginner's luck for visages, although I've heard of a lot of 'd legs on 20th steel' stories, which I do believe to be true. D legs are about 1/250 as are d skirts. Visages are probably 1/2000-2500 for irons.

 

 

 

Although that's nothing, over 4,000 miths here not a single visage or dragon helm and you'd assume visages from miths are a lot more common.

 

 

 

Anyway, I doubt this happens, while it is perfectly possible it just seems a silly thing to do. As stated above I've killed over 4000 mith dragons and had nothing notable off them, while this seems to go along with your theory these have been over the space of a year, doing chunks of them here and there.

 

 

 

The chance of getting an item is all doing to "chance" and "luck", the more you kill the more likely you are to receive the drop you're looking for (No, I don't mean the chance of the drop increases, just that if you kill 10000 of something rather than 500, you're more likely to have gotten the drop).

[Viv]

i dont really but i know that the more you expect a drop the less likely you are to get it :o

 

 

 

like everytime i think about whips on an abby task i dont get but when im just killing abbys i get whips lol

 

 

 

i think they may have something like your first few kills its more common for a drop even though it took me 300 abbys for my first whip drop others get it on thier 13th or thier first task of kills.

[SoulAttacker]

I'de say it might exist. I got my first dragon legs drop after like, 20 steels. Ive killed AT LEAST 250 more and havent got another dragon drop or visage since.

 

 

 

I had to kill 2965 irons for a single visage... they don't come easy. And I've never heard of beginner's luck for visages, although I've heard of a lot of 'd legs on 20th steel' stories, which I do believe to be true. D legs are about 1/250 as are d skirts. Visages are probably 1/2000-2500 for irons.

 

 

 

Got a visage on my 43rd steel dragon kill ever (task of 44 steel dragon kills).

[Lemeja]

A computer program can't do anything at random. The closest you can come to random is a complex algorithm.

 

 

 

Math.random()

 

 

 

It's a simple line of text that generates a number from 0-1. Randomly.

[Wizz]

Hmm this might explain somethings but yeah. I beleive in it.

[DarkDude]

A computer program can't do anything at random. The closest you can come to random is a complex algorithm.

 

 

 

Math.random()

 

 

 

It's a simple line of text that generates a number from 0-1. Randomly.

 

 

 

Not purely random it uses certain information available to it at the time a common one is related to time. It's pretty close to random, but it's not truly random.

[999134]

well in the first ever 10 steels i ever killed i got some d legs but when i killed 2k+ blk dragons no visage and only 1 med and 2 dragonstones

[oddyss3us222]

well alching in ge means extreme penalties then.... iv always wanted to know if rs was really random

[Chalksmith]

I've done a bit of computer programing and there are certain functions but they are based on things that arn't random. For instance if the program was called to decide what drop to give the program might look at the milliseconds of a computers clock. (milliseconds like in time). If the milliseconds were from 1-10 then it might drop a cetrain item and then 11-20 and so on. The computer can generate a number random enough that a human alone couldn't get it.

 

Now to have this sort of beginner luck system Jagex would have to put more programing into the random function (like the one I just described). Tbh they do have the agressiveness of monsters timers so it wouldn't be too difficult to make this, and it would give the game more depth.

 

It is quite probable this could be true

[Will H]

Let's start with this: Why on earth would JaGEx program this? It's not needed in any way, so it only adds more code, which can give more bugs.

 

 

 

A computer program can't do anything at random. The closest you can come to random is a complex algorithm.

 

False.

 

 

 

In comparison with PRNGs, TRNGs extract randomness from physical phenomena and introduce it into a computer. You can imagine this as a die connected to a computer, but typically people use a physical phenomenon that is easier to connect to a computer than a die is. The physical phenomenon can be very simple, like the little variations in somebody's mouse movements or in the amount of time between keystrokes.

 

Source: http://www.random.org/randomness/

 

 

 

 

 

the term is pseudo random number generation Omali

 

 

 

and extracting 'randomness' from physical phenomena would be impracticle for a game like runescape. they don't have a warehouse filled with dice rolling machines.

 

 

 

yes yes i know he said "computer program" but we're talking about runescape, stop it.

 

But Runescape does have lots of pretty random input like the direction that a certain player of an increasing rank in runecrafting is moving and the most recently typed letter in a chat box. Heck, that would give some biased probabilities which could prove useful. Jagex would never tell us what it is because then some people would repeatedly type 'q' to get rare drops or something. Actually, even though I am illiterate when it comes to code, I don't think that it would be that impossible, or even hard, to code.

 

 

 

As for the 'anti farm code', it probably exists in some games, but I don't think that Runescape is one of them. Besides, if we are completely unsure on it's existence, it isn't doing enough.

[Troacctid]

You can't be serious, :wall:

 

 

 

Honestly, this is a ridiculous notion. It's pure superstition and nothing else to think that every single little thing you do affects random events/drop rates/whatever. You might as well tie a lucky ribbon around your finger--I'm sure it would increase your chances of getting a visage more than "doing some other kind of activity for a healthy amount of time." Seriously, what would you be trying to do? "Dust devils? No, I'm not planning on killing dust devils. Of course not. The dust devils are completely safe from me. See, I'm just training my thieving on these Menaphites near the Smoky Well, I'm not actually going in. The dust devils can stop hiding their dragon chainbodies, really, it's ok, I don't want them." #-o

 

 

 

Besides, if it was really supposed to be "anti farming code," then it would punish people for logging off. Come on, who stands around at a farming patch to watch their crops grow? :P

[Irool]

A computer program can't do anything at random. The closest you can come to random is a complex algorithm.

 

 

 

Math.random()

 

 

 

It's a simple line of text that generates a number from 0-1. Randomly.

 

 

 

Do me a favor and write out the algorithm for this function.

 

 

 

And remember, make sure it's completely random! :thumbsup:

[Toad]

I've thought it might be the case sometimes i know people who get an unbelieveable haul of drops and its just a case of right place at right time, my first black drag task i got a visage, yet i kill steels from 93-99 mage and get no visage its luck, to me there isnt a penalty system just human nature you expect to get something if you farm creatures for drops, yet if you go for a few kills you dont expect anything if you get it its "Luck".

[darkblade986]

A computer program can't do anything at random. The closest you can come to random is a complex algorithm.

 

 

 

Math.random()

 

 

 

It's a simple line of text that generates a number from 0-1. Randomly.

 

 

 

Do me a favor and write out the algorithm for this function.

 

 

 

And remember, make sure it's completely random! :thumbsup:

 

 

 

Randomness is only an illusion. There is almost always a specific reason why something happens (it just may be that we don't know what is causing that reason). For example, it is not random that I am sitting here typing this specific combination of letters and spaces; I am choosing to type them. To one who does not know what each of these letters mean, it may just seem like random typing.

 

 

 

With a Random Number Generator, it chooses some aspect (ideally an ever-changing one), applies a very complex formula to it, and comes out with an answer that gives the illusion of randomness. Time, as was mentioned, is almost always picked. A good formula would probably be able to use the Day, Month, Year, Hour, Minute and Second (possibly even Milliseconds) and create a formula whose repetition loop takes a conceptual infinite time to reach.

 

 

 

Even rolling a die isn't completely random. Its results can be affected in so many ways...

 

 

 

What number was it showing while in your hand?

 

How quickly did you drop it?

 

Was your hand sweaty, sticky, or something else?

 

What was its rotational velocity?

 

How does the die hit the table?

 

Is the table hard like Glass or soft like Fabric?

 

 

 

Now then, this all being said, random occurrences only occur at specific moments when conditions align (where the likeliness of such an occurrence increases as possible options approach 1 and decreases as possible options approach infinity). It can be programmed such that certain factors such as Time (how long as character been within [X1,Y1]-[X2,Y2]), Current Action (If combat=no then Factor=1), Previous Actions (Factor + MonsterKill = Factor2), and all that good stuff...

 

 

 

Sliding away from my momentary moment of Nerdiness, the answer would be no, I doubt Jagex would've done something like this. Although I must admit, I got my first Dragon drop ever at combat 113 at Dust Devils (which was a Dragon Chainbody). Would Jagex have programmed it so that my first Dragon drop would be the best one possible? No. Do I believe that luck has a sense of humor? Absolutely.

[pulli23]

A computer program can't do anything at random. The closest you can come to random is a complex algorithm.

 

 

 

Math.random()

 

 

 

It's a simple line of text that generates a number from 0-1. Randomly.

 

 

 

Do me a favor and write out the algorithm for this function.

 

 

 

And remember, make sure it's completely random! :thumbsup:

 

 

 

Randomness is only an illusion. There is almost always a specific reason why something happens (it just may be that we don't know what is causing that reason). For example, it is not random that I am sitting here typing this specific combination of letters and spaces; I am choosing to type them. To one who does not know what each of these letters mean, it may just seem like random typing.

 

 

 

With a Random Number Generator, it chooses some aspect (ideally an ever-changing one), applies a very complex formula to it, and comes out with an answer that gives the illusion of randomness. Time, as was mentioned, is almost always picked. A good formula would probably be able to use the Day, Month, Year, Hour, Minute and Second (possibly even Milliseconds) and create a formula whose repetition loop takes a conceptual infinite time to reach.

 

 

 

Even rolling a die isn't completely random. Its results can be affected in so many ways...

 

 

 

What number was it showing while in your hand?

 

How quickly did you drop it?

 

Was your hand sweaty, sticky, or something else?

 

What was its rotational velocity?

 

How does the die hit the table?

 

Is the table hard like Glass or soft like Fabric?

 

 

 

Now then, this all being said, random occurrences only occur at specific moments when conditions align (where the likeliness of such an occurrence increases as possible options approach 1 and decreases as possible options approach infinity). It can be programmed such that certain factors such as Time (how long as character been within [X1,Y1]-[X2,Y2]), Current Action (If combat=no then Factor=1), Previous Actions (Factor + MonsterKill = Factor2), and all that good stuff...

 

 

 

Sliding away from my momentary moment of Nerdiness, the answer would be no, I doubt Jagex would've done something like this. Although I must admit, I got my first Dragon drop ever at combat 113 at Dust Devils (which was a Dragon Chainbody). Would Jagex have programmed it so that my first Dragon drop would be the best one possible? No. Do I believe that luck has a sense of humor? Absolutely.

 

 

 

bit afraid of saying it but:

 

 

 

speed/location paradox (quantum mechanics?)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Anyways those who say that " nothing is random" are people simply trying to sound like they know "a lot": they're just talking with the crowd!

 

 

 

Sure pseudo random generators can't really generate randoms: but is that needed? And do we care?

 

 

 

no.

[Moad14]

I was thinking about drops and randomness the other day. If you kill a monster in a quest, it will drop it's key or whatever you're supposed to get from it. However, if you decide to train on it later, it will no longer drop the key. This says to me that the monsters are specifically generated for the individual, so maybe drops aren't as random as believed?

 

 

 

Granted, I fail at computers, so I don't know how any of this works, just throwing it out there.

 

Programmers, please don't pwn me too badly? :P

[aznmidget448]

Im not sure about this theory. I have not really gotten too many opportunities to test this as Im f2p and all I do is wc or kill monsters with no drops to train. Its definitely an interesting thought though.

[Omali]

A computer program can't do anything at random. The closest you can come to random is a complex algorithm.

 

 

 

Math.random()

 

 

 

It's a simple line of text that generates a number from 0-1. Randomly.

 

 

 

Do me a favor and write out the algorithm for this function.

 

 

 

And remember, make sure it's completely random! :thumbsup:

 

 

 

Randomness is only an illusion. There is almost always a specific reason why something happens (it just may be that we don't know what is causing that reason). For example, it is not random that I am sitting here typing this specific combination of letters and spaces; I am choosing to type them. To one who does not know what each of these letters mean, it may just seem like random typing.

 

 

 

With a Random Number Generator, it chooses some aspect (ideally an ever-changing one), applies a very complex formula to it, and comes out with an answer that gives the illusion of randomness. Time, as was mentioned, is almost always picked. A good formula would probably be able to use the Day, Month, Year, Hour, Minute and Second (possibly even Milliseconds) and create a formula whose repetition loop takes a conceptual infinite time to reach.

 

 

 

Even rolling a die isn't completely random. Its results can be affected in so many ways...

 

 

 

What number was it showing while in your hand?

 

How quickly did you drop it?

 

Was your hand sweaty, sticky, or something else?

 

What was its rotational velocity?

 

How does the die hit the table?

 

Is the table hard like Glass or soft like Fabric?

 

 

 

Now then, this all being said, random occurrences only occur at specific moments when conditions align (where the likeliness of such an occurrence increases as possible options approach 1 and decreases as possible options approach infinity). It can be programmed such that certain factors such as Time (how long as character been within [X1,Y1]-[X2,Y2]), Current Action (If combat=no then Factor=1), Previous Actions (Factor + MonsterKill = Factor2), and all that good stuff...

 

 

 

Sliding away from my momentary moment of Nerdiness, the answer would be no, I doubt Jagex would've done something like this. Although I must admit, I got my first Dragon drop ever at combat 113 at Dust Devils (which was a Dragon Chainbody). Would Jagex have programmed it so that my first Dragon drop would be the best one possible? No. Do I believe that luck has a sense of humor? Absolutely.

 

 

 

Um....I don't think anyone would deny that a planned out event could be considered random, the situation you present is absolutley irrelevant to this conversation.

 

 

 

Rolling a die is random because it is affected in so many ways. Assuming you don't fix the roll, you can't pinpoint what the die will land on because even if you knew the algorithm of force, gravity, and bounce, you would still never be right 100% of the time (or even a majority of the time) because of how unpredictable and prone to change the variables may be. A computer can never be random because it operates on specific algorithms. Know the algorithm, you can pinpoint the answer every single time. As people have pointed out, this gives the illusion of randomness, while not being truly random.

[DarkDude]

I was thinking about drops and randomness the other day. If you kill a monster in a quest, it will drop it's key or whatever you're supposed to get from it. However, if you decide to train on it later, it will no longer drop the key. This says to me that the monsters are specifically generated for the individual, so maybe drops aren't as random as believed?

 

 

 

Granted, I fail at computers, so I don't know how any of this works, just throwing it out there.

 

Programmers, please don't pwn me too badly? :P

 

 

 

That'd just be a simple check when that monster dies.

 

 

 

If Player.QuestStatus(QuestID) = SpecificNumber then Monster.Drop(ItemID)

 

 

 

Also might perform another check to see if you have item in your bank or inventory/equipment

 

 

 

As to the user who said about people mentioning Nothing is random don't know what they're talking about. I'm do a degree in Computer Science, I know what I'm talking about.

[pulli23]

I was thinking about drops and randomness the other day. If you kill a monster in a quest, it will drop it's key or whatever you're supposed to get from it. However, if you decide to train on it later, it will no longer drop the key. This says to me that the monsters are specifically generated for the individual, so maybe drops aren't as random as believed?

 

 

 

Granted, I fail at computers, so I don't know how any of this works, just throwing it out there.

 

Programmers, please don't pwn me too badly? :P

 

 

 

That'd just be a simple check when that monster dies.

 

 

 

If Player.QuestStatus(QuestID) = SpecificNumber then Monster.Drop(ItemID)

 

 

 

Also might perform another check to see if you have item in your bank or inventory/equipment

 

 

 

As to the user who said about people mentioning Nothing is random don't know what they're talking about. I'm do a degree in Computer Science, I know what I'm talking about.

 

 

 

Nice, what kind of CS?

 

I've done a course in game design (which didn't fit in my study) and I might start a minor about technical computer science later this year (which is about how the data transfer is in a computer and how that translates into a language).

 

 

 

But the point I tried to bring across is that simply saying "randoms don't exists" is too shortsighted: first of all basic quantum mechanics they physically do exists. And when talking about game design (which after all, the programmers at JAGEX are), it's simply a useless statement: true randomness isn't needed!

 

 

 

Also I said before: it's a very bad thing to have a negative influx here.. especially without people knowing it. You should "reward" people for playing your game! If all there would be a possitive random change: the longer you are somewhere the more likely the rewards get.