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Everything posted by sees_all1
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What would it take to kill the Runescape Economy?
sees_all1 replied to sees_all1's topic in General Discussion
I'd like to point out that what's good for the goose, is not in fact, good for the gander (this assumption is called fallacy of composition) (taken from the book Microeconomics for Economics 251, published by Pearson) "The fallacy of composition is the (false) statement that what is true of the parts is true of the whole or that what is true of the whole is true of the parts. There are many everyday examples of this fallacy. Standing at a ball game to get a better view works for one person but not for all--what is true for a part of a crowd is not true for the whole crowd." While merchanting clans may be popular right now, there are many uninformed individuals that are going in, trusting the clan leaders, and getting screwed by playing by the rules. All of these individuals will have backlash; they will refuse to go into these clans again, and/or warn others. Not everyone in runescape is able to or will participate in merchanting, and certainly not everyone can profit from it. There are far too many items that are substitutes for merchanted goods, or simply too much volume of certain items to allow merchanting clans to put a big dent in their prices. I sincerely doubt merchanting clans are able to change the price of high volume items - air runes, pure essense, nature runes - especially because most of these items are created from scratch. These items are the backbone of the Runescape economy. I think you and I agree on most of this. I suppose what I'm saying is that the players will not, in the end, collapse the economy, it'll be some (really really big) action of Jagex. -
My 70 F2P RCing makes me special and not like joe.
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What would it take to kill the Runescape Economy?
sees_all1 replied to sees_all1's topic in General Discussion
@Makoto - thanks for the remarks, and for taking the time to at least read it. There can, and have come points in time where goods aren't traded, for instance the lobster example. Although this (for the most part) only happens with major updates, and only affects goods of a certain type (pking gear, for example) for a certain time frame, these markets can, and do freeze. As wholly inconceivable that this will not happen to a majority of goods, I submit that its still possible, and if it did happen, the economy (trade) would grind to a halt. -
Shield your eyes!!! this one is huge! What would it take to kill the RS Economy? After viewing numerous posts and threads declaring the RS Economy to be dead, and many responses of Its not dead, its better than ever!, Ive decided to examine what makes the RS economy tick, and what would make it bad enough that there would no longer be an economy. So, lets take a look at what economy means. The definition I will go by is: the system of production and distribution and consumption What are the characteristics of a dead economy? First and foremost there is no trade. There is no exchange of goods, no wealth passed between characters. Secondly there is no consumption. No one is using the goods produced, and they just sit. Lastly there is no production. No one is producing anything, nothing is generated. I think the first one is the one that is most likely to happen, because it seems like most causes from the second and third would stem from the first. Im just going to focus this on trade. How would there come to be no trade? The first, and obvious answer is if RuneScape shuts down entirely Jagex ceases to exist, something along those lines. Because Jagexs financial status seems to be intact and strong, and this would be some external thing, Im not going to discuss this one further. So, on to another idea. There can come a point when everything is viewed as junk. Where items have no more worth, and the current prices do not reflect the current value. This already seems to be the case with many items products of skills that are power-trained. Take smithing for example it is impossible to sell mithril daggers, or steel longswords. The current items price has hit a floor, set by Jagex. Experience is valued more than these items, which leaves frozen markets. It is easy to see this occurring with many items, and the trend will only become worse as more and more people look to max out skills. There is also the opposite price ceilings. It takes a big event to make a relatively common item hit its ceiling, but when it happens, trade stops entirely. Cooked lobsters have a price ceiling of 368 they hit it for several weeks after the PVP updates. It was impossible to buy 100 lobs in the GE for a while, and after all the hype of PVP worlds died down, it became nearly impossible to sell 100 lobs in the GE. What is the markets solution to price limits? Junk trading. Certain items holiday items, or rare items, have a whole and complete market unto themselves, and junk trading is the solution to make their economies to flow smoother. However, this only benefits wealthy individuals, instead of those with less than 10M total assets. What would happen if all price floors were removed, and the markets were allowed to dictate the prices? Its conceivable that certain items, such as bronze-steel items, or willows, would fall to 1-3 gp each, ruining the game for the low leveled players. However, it only takes a few days to a couple weeks of play to get up to where a player is using mithril or better, and this problem wouldnt happen anymore. The price of some steel, and mithril items will find equilibrium at their respective high alchemy price, minus the cost of a nature rune. This brings up another interesting idea nature runes are more important than GP in the markets. Lets say that a new skill is introduced sailing. Or engineering. Or Aeronautics. It doesnt really matter. But, lets say that nature runes were an integral part of that skill. The skill is introduced, a new demand is created, and the price of nature runes soar. Items that are normally dead, but fall within a range that its worthwhile to high alchemy, would cease trading (rune medium helms, green dhide bodies, etc.) If nature runes were deemed more valuable for this skill than for high alchemies, many different items and skills would become junk. The last thing that I believe would destroy the economy is if the mechanics of the GE stopped working, which consists of a few things. One would be the GE stops all together, and you cannot use it anymore. This would bring back classical trading, standing in world 1 or 2 for hours trying to get a couple death runes. More scamming would likely occur, prices wouldnt shift, etc. Another is if Jagex doesnt update the prices of items. This would make it that its impossible to trade with gp, trading would cease and the economy would be dead Lastly, if a majority of items hit a price ceiling or floor in the GE. This is a little different than Jagex not updating the prices, however it would result in the same effects. Ive heard two other things, and Id like to examine them here. 1. A super alchemy spell would destroy the economy. 2. Merchanting clans ruin the economy. So, the first one. No, this isnt true. If a spell gave you more gp per item than the high alchemy spell, new prices would be set for items, and the high alchemy spell may become worthless. However, the economy wouldnt be destroyed in the sense that trade ceases to exist. Rather, the prices would shift for a couple weeks until balance is restored. The only way this could kill the market for certain items is if price ceilings existed, and this spell sans cost of runes gave more gp than the ceiling is at. The second one Merchanting clans do not ruin the economy, as a whole. A merchanting clan works by creating an artificial demand for an item, raising the price, then selling the items back at the inflated price. This works only in theory rather what probably happens is the leaders of the merchanting clan stock up on a specific item, tell the rest of the clan what that item is, slowly sell back that item at the inflated price, make a tidy profit, and finally watch as their members get screwed and the price of the item plummets as the artificial demand becomes an artificial supply. Even in theory, merchanting clans dont work. If everyone waits until the peak price, what happens is just a redistribution of wealth, or rather a gamble. The lucky ones will be able to sell at the increased price, the unlucky wont, and will have to sell at the floor, or wait until the item rebounds and either net a loss or no profit. This is sort of off topic, however Id like to point out that while merchanting clans can mess up individual markets, they are not numerous enough, or powerful enough to mess up every item. A smart scaper will check the different clans before making a significant purchase, and will be able to read pricing histories of specific items to know what each items price is. A smart scaper will also know how much theyre willing to lose on a specific item. If there were no changes to the game, and an equilibrium were to occur, there wouldnt be merchanting. However, merchanting is an indicator that there is still an economy, that trade exists. Yikes! That was long. Conclusion: I hope you enjoyed the read I enjoyed writing it. Hopefully everything was as clear as I meant it to be. If you have any ideas as to what else would kill the economy, please post them. If you respectfully disagree with any of the things Ive said here, please post them. I look forward to reading and discussing comments. tl;dr: The RS Economy dies if a few things occur: -RS ceases to exist -Most items become junk and price limits (floors, ceilings) remain -Nature runes become too expensive -The GE stops working (no volume, or prices dont change) Things that wouldnt kill the Economy: -New super alch spell -Merchanting clans.
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I just read/skimmed through most of the posts in this thread, and its unbelievable how biased each and every one of you are. Even though I've never had an experience with the Ring of Wealth, I'd like to point out several things: 1. None of you know everything that is in the rare table. Jagex may have deemed something you perceive to be common to be rare, and without knowing everything in the rare table it is impossible to determine a statistic for the Ring of Wealth. 2. With each of your posts about your experiences, none of you have experienced enough rare drops to even become statistically significant to even about 20-40% - one trip means absolutely nothing in statistics, you need to repeat the trials over and over again... tens, hundreds, thousands of times. 3. The only knowledge you have of the game engine is what Jagex lets you know. Exactly what numbers go into the drop table, or how it goes through its numbers is unknown to you. While Jagex's answer does provide some clues, it isn't the code, and its only the code that can give you a definitive answer (or the Jagex Staffer who programmed it... ).
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i've gotten a lvl 3 off tutorial island to 1 million in 48 hours... no skills involved. Except I used the g.e. :roll:
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OMFG CONTEMPORARY SPELLBOOK FTW ITS COMING HOLY COW OMG!!!!one!!!!eleven!!!! Well, that settles it then. Just don't kill my optimism for this one, pretty please. :pray:
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Check out the main page... I added 3 new spells from suggestions made on the RSOF. I believe I've credited everyone who helped out... post if you believe I didn't give you due credit. I've also completely removed super alch, so its gone, no worries.
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This right here could be all that I need.... I'd also like to point out that any new content for F2P is also going to be P2P, such as a holiday event. It also seems that most servers have another paired server with them - take a look at the locations, and you'll see that "United States 1" makes up about 20 or so servers... same with "UK 1" - about 16 servers. In fact, its rare to see less than 2 servers not at the same location. Figure within any given area a player might be in, there are less than 50 NPC's. For an entire P2P world... any rough estimate of how many NPC's there are? My guess is between 5-10k. As far as generating random numbers specifically for players, in any given moment a RuneScape server might be sending 5 random numbers to the player. So in any given game loop a Runescape server needs to generate up to 10k random numbers, and update the locations of up to 12000 things. In some thread, Andrew himself said each game loop takes about 60 milliseconds (give or take). That's plenty of time to do all those things, as far as computing goes (and that's the absolute worst case scenario). Also, figure the only thing Jagex is sending to any given player at any given time is the position of 200 other players, and the positions of up to 50 npcs.
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Was the "Interview with Jagex!" the new thing that was discussed on the forums earlier, or is it just gravy to something else?
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Lol, watch out. One day, I'll be on that list. I've already got 70 RC which is better than some people on there :P . 1017 total here and counting....
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I suppose we're free to post on the RSOF? add me to the list. (please remove all that color... its an eyesore -.- )
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When a RS bug was NOT blown out of proportion
sees_all1 replied to sees_all1's topic in General Discussion
Sounds like that could've been blown out of proportion, but I don't know everything surrounding that. -
patience quel - for the main topic, it doesn't have F2P anywhere in the title. For the spellbook only, it does -> I've gotten two idiot negative responses (how about PAY) and two positive responses (one from a TIF lurker, and the other, idk). Remember, this spellbook has 29 new f2p spells, and 28 new members only spells, so it isn't technically a "F2P only" update. Plus, its easy to tell if someone's read the spells or not, usually they'll point out one or two that they really like.
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Ahh, the age old "if you don't like then leave" given to those who desire change. Now THIS is the way to get stuff done. "John Hancock: Umm, I don't like that the British rule over us and tax us without our consent. Intelligent thinker who is well informed: Well, if you don't like it, then leave, and take all of your stupid Patriots with you." "Frederick Douglass: Umm, I don't like that blacks are slaves. Intelligent thinker who is well informed: Well, if you don't like it, then leave, and take all of your stupid [redacted] with you." "Elizabeth Cady Stanton: Umm, I don't like that women can't vote. Intelligent thinker who is well informed: Well, if you don't like it, then leave, and take all of your stupid women with you." "MLK: Umm, I don't like that blacks are segregated. Intelligent thinker who is well informed: Well, if you don't like it, then leave, and take all of your stupid blacks with you." I bow down to your reasoning Intelligent thinker who is well informed Except in this circumstance, you're a consumer. There are literally thousands of video games out there, and picking one you like better than sticking with one you don't is completely plausible, and in fact encouraged. No one is forcing you to play runescape. The difference here between "if you don't like it, do something else" and each and every one of your analogies is there wasn't an alternative. I.E. - either gripe about it or start a revolution. Here, you can play a different game, and you can't start a revolution especially if there are a thousand others who will take your spot in a week.
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Alright, I fixed it. Please - If you supported this spellbook, post your support on the RSOF. I need that thread to be highly visible to a Jmod.
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If you don't think its fun (and more of a chore), then maybe runescape isn't for you. There are plenty of games out there to chose from, many of which allow you to cheat your way through it.
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So, how exactly to the Lunar, and Ancient Spellbooks pertain to the limited subset of F2P spells in the normal spellbook? I think you'll find the accuracy of a wave spell is different than the accuracy of a blast spell, is different than the accuracy of a rush or blitz or whatever spell. No matter how you solve the level requirements for Magic, there is still the problem with the combat triangle in general: Mage and Range max out much earlier than Melee, therefore giving an inherent disadvantage to Melee. One could argue that the cost of Mage and Range overcomes this, but you've argued time and time again that cost isn't a factor for "most maxed out players" - which still leaves us, combat triangle is off balanced anyway you look at it. The only way to solve these problems: 1. Level requirements versus max hits and accuracy for each should be relatively the same. 2. Cost should be the same. 3. On end of the triangle should beat another, while losing to the other side, CONSISTENTLY.
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long read, but worth it. This probably should have been submitted as a Tip-It-Times article. I'm not sure if this was meant to spark a debate, or a general discussion over the points listed. Lets see, I'd like to go over this on a point by point basis, but that would take almost as long as it seems like it took you to write this. So, rather than do that, I'll pick a generic idea out of each section and comment on it, and you can tell me if I understood what you were trying to convey, and if my opinion on it makes sense. Here I go. On Precedents: I believe the punishment of breaking a rule should fit the severity of the abuse. IE - anyone who abused the µ bug merits at the very least a 3 day mute. Anyone who used the µ bug in a PVP or PVM situation to the detriment of other players deserves, at the very least, a 10 day ban. Players who discovered the bug, repeated it several times, promptly reported it, then kept their mouth shut should not be banned - as this is the prescribed method for reporting bugs. Players that spread the knowledge of the bug to others should be banned, because it allowed others to abuse the bug. Another situation - the Bounty Hunter skull bug. Players that abused this bug (i.e. did it, without reporting it, and/or spread the knowledge to others) should receive at most 1-2 blackmarks (a slap on the wrist), because this didn't affect anyone else, i.e. the abuse was not severe. In this manner, Jagex can be fair towards all players in any given situation, while still maintaining the integrity of the game, and the rules. On skills: One thing that I think which summed everything up was the statement: "We should be able to obtain the majority of our experience from things we enjoy." I believe Jagex is heading in this direction, believe it or not. I'll give two good examples: I enjoy using mage in combat, but magic is expensive, and pretty much worthless in F2P. I can play FoG, and still retain that enjoyment at literally no cost to me. Another example: I hate runecrafting. I detest it. It is one of the worst skills in the game, especially for F2P. In my humble opinion, getting 70 runecrafting is harder than getting 99 cooking. And then GOP came out. I absolutely love GOP. I played GOP so much that my Runecrafting level went from 50 to 70 since its been released. I hardly notice the experience in Runecrafting I get when I play GOP. As far as combat goes - the only solution to making combat experience easier is to make it cheaper overall. This would alleviate the problem of having to grind skills to pay for PKing, or to play safe combat minigames instead of risking armour. Clan wars is a good example of how this gets done. Time: Most of this I can't comment on, as I'm strictly F2P. however the "Also, stop showing levels after everybody's name. The only places this would be needed are PvP worlds." is an interesting point of view, and I'm not sure if I would agree or disagree. There are many level 3s that have a higher total level than level 60's and 70's - because these level 3s are skillers. For this reason, I do not automatically discredit someone on their combat level. I feel that no matter what, immaturity will always happen, and removing the combat level after the name is no way to solve the problem of immaturity. Money: Expensive items give satisfaction to people that grind skills to get money. Removing the necessity of money, and removing the necessity of skills would make Runescape just one giant minigame, instead of the complex beast it is today. It would cheapen the value and time of all the effort put into by current and past players, and would make the game boring. Interpersonal Relations: "This should ideally result in the following: more positive relations in Runescape, with less of the common make yourself feel good by putting others down that permeates Runescape."" All I could think of... "I'd like to teach the world to sing..." Trust me, this will never happen, because you can't teach people to be mature.
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Not a lot, at the very most it'd be £1000 per month. So if that's the extreme estimate, £1000 a month, it's £12000 per year per server. I counted 76 F2P English servers - I'll even over-estimate it and call it 85 total F2P servers. 12k*85 = the extreme value would be £1,020,000 per year. £2.2 mil - £1.0 = £1.2 mil a year just from F2P. Anyone want to take a guess how many staffers they have dedicated to F2P, and how much they're paid? Still looking for the definitive, "running this server costs this much for jagex" from an official source.
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Alright... how much does it cost to run a single f2p server?
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Right, but I'm looking for something along the lines of: It costs Jagex 2,000£ / month for each F2P server. Jagex makes about 1900£ / month from F2P advertising, so Jagex's net loss per month for a F2P server is 100£ You get the idea. 7% doesn't tell me anything about the cost of a single server, nor does it tell me explicitly the amount of revenue Jagex gets from F2P advertising.
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A few simple questions, really - How much does it (on average) cost Jagex to operate a single F2P server for a month? (few variables tossed in there - rent for server, cost of bandwidth, number of people logged in, number of dedicated salaried employees). How much money does Jagex make from a single F2Per viewing an advertisement - which leads into- On average, how much does Jagex make per month in advertising revenue from F2Pers? This leads to the final question - what is the net profit / loss for Jagex simply having a F2P segment? I know there have been a few graphics thrown around (i.e. a line graph and a couple pie chart), but this really doesn't tell me the answer to these questions. Anyone care to fill me in?
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Replace those with an even harder F2P runecrafting, prayer, and mining. (no ZMI altar, best bones we can bury is big bones without altar bonuses, and limited powermining abilities, if any - also best money making ability in F2P is mining runite... aside from that if you can do 100k/hr or better you're doing amazingly well.)
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When a RS bug was NOT blown out of proportion
sees_all1 replied to sees_all1's topic in General Discussion
what I posted in the OP was a bug I discovered. I took the correct steps - tried once more to replicate it, reported it immediately afterward, and then went about my business. Some of the more recent bugs, with MANY abusers, or historically "Big" events are blown out of proportion because of the number of abusers, and the tough decision jagex was forced to make. I suppose what I'm looking for are potentially MAJOR bugs that people here have found, or heard about, that were handled correctly by the person that found it, so there were very few, if any abusers. These are the bugs you don't hear about - and I'd like to show people that, no, not everyone is doing it - and if you jump in, then you're a cheater and deserve to get banned.
