sees_all1

As promised, I've put the book back into an image, and I've kept the text. Sorry about the dark green on dark blue, that's just your settings, and I don't know how to change the color for the CODE tags, or even one that would suit everyone. Praise - requires 5 laws, recharges prayer by up to 15, level 88 spell. 5 laws * 300 = 1500 per cast, how much do prayer pots cost? Super alchemy - requires 4 nats, gives High Alch level + .75 * (High Alch - Low Alch). level 90 spell. Sample High alchs: Dragon Scimitar - 75k vs 60k current Dragon Halberd - 243k vs 195k current Green D'hide Body - 5850 vs 4680 current Compfreak said the Halberd would be a serious problem, I don't think so. People would realize it's a money maker, demand would go up, and it'd match the current super alch price - cost of nats within a week or two. They boost your health too. So before going into the fight you could have 96/80. Anyhow, can I put you down as a supporter?

That prayer button was my idea... posted Fri Dec 05, 2008 12:56 am.... Or rather, I came up with it independently of anyone else, as probably other people did too. The thread is on page 6 of the Bugs and Suggestions forum if you want proof. Don't post on it though, I don't like old threads coming back from the void.

You're forgetting the Opportunity Cost. With the X amount of money I'd lose using the materials myself, I could be getting these other, better skills with it.

@compfreak - please READ it and not SKIM it, you'll miss certain details that balance it. Sorry, that's just the "Code" format... I'll turn it back into an image soon enough.

You're testing the DClaw special then? Special Attacks for weapons will use an overwritten method to calculate a hit, pure and simple. I won't be testing special attacks, so I won't have that as a confounding variable. You can test special attacks until you're blue in the face, but unless you try to understand whats going on underneath it all, you won't understand the mechanics of the game, and therefore will draw wrong conclusions.

What on EARTH are you talking about? I see nothing even remotely related to hit accuracy or hit spreads. The closest thing I see is a max hit calculator, which has nothing whatsoever to do with the hit spread and is far, FAR simpler to test. Runescape is programmed in Java. Runescape, at its very core is composed of objects and methods. There are a few ways to generate a random number in Java, using the Math class, the Random class, etc. There might also be a couple ways to generate random numbers that aren't in a even distribution. The purpose of programming in objects is to reuse code - there are 3 different classes. I doubt Jagex overloaded the calculate_hit method (or whatever they called it) more than 4 times. Whether you hit or not isn't magic - it has something to do with levels, bonuses, and your opponent's defense and bonuses. If the numbers generated in Runescape are random (which for this they are), then with enough simple analysis you'll be able to determine the underlying method for determining a hit, and how much of a hit. But I feel that explaining all this to you is a waste of time because you know it already. What you tested was "In this armour setup, against this armour setup, what was my average damage per hit ratio" What I want to know is "With X attack, Y strength versus Z defense and n bonuses, what is the probability of a hit, and therefore my average damage per hit"

Architect ....... 72 ..... 4 S, 4 As ....... P . Doubles experience of next 10 construction ..................................................builds. Can only be cast once per 20 minutes. Can only be cast once every 20 minutes, and it only lasts for 10 builds. What's there not to understand about it?

How many methods do you think Jagex programmed into Runescape to determine whether there is a hit or not, and how hard should it hit? I'm guessing about 3, maybe 4 for standard weapons (I'm not counting specials because they do some crazy things). Tip.it's combat calculator is (from my point of view) correct. I haven't had an instance where it's prediction was inaccurate. How did Tip.it get its calculator? Tons of data. Tons and tons of data. Now, If I carefully go about this the correct way, and I figure out what their method for determining whether there is a hit or not, and the amount that is hit, then that probability formula could be applied to all sorts of situations, including estimated number of hits per level, estimated victor in a 1v1 battle, etc. All these things would need basic assumptions, and it is those assumptions that need to be checked. I've told you now quite a few times: I'm familiar with statistics. I'm not going to make some outrageous claims based on the data I collect, because I know better than that. And once I post my procedures, my data and my findings, you can scrutinize it all you want. Lol. Those are two level 90 F2Pers going at it. And if you've read the suggestion, you'd understand whats happening. Funny, I haven't seen a response from you yet about it. I figured you would be all over my suggestion, how out of whack the spells are, etc. :P

I hear what you're saying, but remember these numbers are pseudo-random, and for all intensive purposes it is random. If what you're saying is correct, then some number, like 8, would hit more often than 9. I can test that. I can get another set of data, and test it again. I can repeat this 100 times. If its statistically significant, and it remains statistically significant for 4 sets of data, then the probability that there is a fluke is very small. You don't have to explain that to me, I know stats. I don't know what setups you were using, or your opponent's setups. I can, however, setup my own people to get my own data, explain to you exactly what I did. If you feel so inclined, you can replicate it. As of right now, I can't replicate what you're telling me, so to me, its void. What I want to do is to do my own analysis of this, so next time I argue with you, I have statistics and data to back it up, and I can show you exactly how I got that data - and you can get your own data using the same method, and you can test your data to mine, so you can tell I'm not pulling numbers out of my behind. Also, it serves a purpose to the RS community as a whole. Next time they think, gee, should I raise my Strength level, or my defense level, they can look at the data, and the analysis, and judge for themselves.

With what Jagex posted in that postbag, and how I believe hits are calculated, its very simple to set up an experiment, and be 99.7% sure of your results. If you don't know what you're doing, you're not going to prove anything to yourself, nor anyone else. If your method is repeatable, the data set large enough, and you use the right tests, no one can argue with the conclusions, espescially if you're 99.7% certain from the tests. Read up about the Chi-squared Goodness of Fit tests, and you can understand how I'm going to test each one. For example: Hypothesis: Someone with maxed attack and a max hit of 10 should hit an even spread. Make assumptions: Someone with 99 attack, +51 in attack bonuses should hit 149 times to every time they splash once, when hitting on someone with 1 defense. Of the 149 times they "hit", they should hit from 0-max, and those hits should be distributed evenly, with 0 hitting slightly more because of the 1/150 thing. Now, say their max is 9. They could hit 0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9. If you hit 1000 times, you'd expect about 100 hits in each, with a couple more in the zero column. Then you'd do the Goodness of Fit test, to see if the actual data conforms to what you expected. If it doesn't conform, then you could repeat, and gather new data. Or, you could try another hypothesis, that there's "trends" or something along that nature. There are many variables to play with, some easier than others. With many simple hypotheses, and many different tests, an idea behind the actual random numbers driving the combat triangle can be determined, and then accurate statements can be made. Whatever is going on inside the runescape servers isn't magic - there are methods constructed from more methods from the Java API. There are numbers that Jagex displays. None of us on the outside know exactly how they are used, but we can figure it out.

A few thousand hits is all I need to test something with stats, and if my hit range is from 0-9, I'll need fewer about 10x fewer hits than if its 0-99. Once I'm done, I'll post my method, my data, my analysis, and my conclusions. Then you can scrutinize it all you want. Until then, I've got calc III homework due at midnight.

I'm going to identify one thing to test at a time, and I'm going to grind it out. I'm going to create a bunch of throwaway accounts to do this, so leveling isn't a problem. With the types of analysis I plan on doing, 1000's of hits provide .1% standard error, 100's of hits provide .5% SE. I don't need to test an account with 80 attack, 90 attack, 99 attack, if I can find the trend at 10, 20, 30... Don't worry about how I plan on doing this, because I probably won't finish for another 6-10 months. It will be fairly scientific.

Why are you continuing to make up random statistics? Where did this magical '95%' number come from? Could you point me to the KB page with the hit formulas, or will I be forced to assume that this is yet another one of your trumped up numbers :roll: [hide=from postbag 38 - chicken, jad?]The Maths First, some interesting numbers: A rooster has 7 Hitpoints. They have a 0.77% chance of hitting TzTok-Jad, and then only a 50% chance of inflicting a measly 1 Hitpoint in damage. Against an Yt-HurKot they are much more successful, and have a 5.48% chance of hitting, followed by the same 50% chance of inflicting 1 Hitpoint of pain. TzTok-Jad has 250 Hitpoints, and will ordinarily regain 1 lost Hitpoint every minute. When he has 150 Hitpoints left, four Yt-HurKot will spawn to heal him. As a godly creature of magma-fuelled destruction, TzTok-Jad has an average chance (across all attack methods) to hit a rooster of 99.78%, and has an average maximum hit of 96.5 damage. Yt-HurKot have 60 Hitpoints, and will heal 1 Hitpoint per minute. They have a 98.85% chance of hitting a rooster, and can inflict up to 11 Hitpoints damage. Right, on with the amusing theories 1. Each rooster has a 0.385% chance of wounding TzTok-Jad, so you need 259.74 roosters to inflict one Hitpoint of damage. As TzTok-Jad has 250 Hitpoints, it will therefore require 64,935 roosters to defeat TzTok-Jad in a single instant of frenzied pecking. 2. Because we can still assume that 64,935 pecks are required, and that 24 occur each attack cycle (which, for a rooster, is approximately every 2.4 seconds), we can know that it will take 6,493.5 seconds, or 1 hour 48 minutes 13.5 seconds. Not bad, for a pack of feathered wimps, Im sure youll agree! The roosters, however, are constantly being attacked by TzTok-Jad, who has a 99.78% chance of hitting a rooster in melee, and a 92.75% chance of killing them outright with each hit, so he has a 92.55% chance of killing a rooster with every attack. In the time he survives, TzTok-Jad would be able to slay 2,509 roosters, so you would then only need 2,533 roosters (because you still need 24 roosters around Jad at the time of his demise). 3. Roosters are foolish creatures and unlikely to think of attacking the Yt-HurKot as they arrive to heal their master, so it would then become effectively impossible. If, however, the roosters were elevated intellectually to the level at which this would occur to them, they could easily continue to attack TzTok-Jad while the remaining thousands of feathered beasts deal with the irritating little blighters. This will, of course, take much longer and require far more birds. TzTok-Jad heals himself at a rate of 1 every minute, while the 24 roosters are inflicting 1 point of damage every 25.97 seconds on average, so the roosters instead inflict 1.31 Hitpoints of damage every minute (TzTok-Jad having healed one Hitpoint during that time). This means that it will take them 1 hour 16 minutes 20.4 seconds to get TzTok-Jad to 150 health, thus spawning the wretched Yt-HurKot, and a further 1 hour 54 minutes 30 seconds to finish him off if the other roosters are capable of occupying them. TzTok-Jad, therefore, will be able to slay 4,593.65 roosters in the 3 hours 10 minutes 50.4 seconds the battle lasts. The Yt-HurKot, meanwhile, will no doubt be finishing a few off themselves. The chickens have a 2.74% chance of doing 1 point of damage to an Yt-HurKot every 2.4 seconds, but 8 can attack each of them, so will do 0.21 Hitpoints damage every time they attack. At this rate, it will take them 12 minutes 45.6 seconds to kill an Yt-HurKot (including the time calculated for the Yt-HurKots normal regeneration). In that time, however, their prey will finish off 172.43 roosters. As Yt-HurKot only respawn regularly if TzTok-Jad gets back to full health, the birds will only have to face 4 of them and suffer a loss of 689.72 of their number. In total, this means that you will need 5,308 roosters to make it through the previous 63 waves in order to have good odds of winning a fire cape. Of course, roosters have no need of capes, so theyll probably just ask for some TokKul so they can save up for an onyx to craft into a ring of stone, in the hope that at least one of their hens will survive the brutal culling they face every day at the hands of eager fletchers and adventurers completing Cooks Assistant.[/hide] From postbag 38. There is a number generated to determine if there is a hit or not, and there is a number generated to determine how high the hit is. Assume the person will hit 100% of the time. Then, if the numbers are evenly distributed, and a max hit of 19, 19/20 of the hits will hit 1-19, and 1/20 will hit a 0. I'm not pulling numbers out of my behind, and right now I'm starting to doubt your credibility. Really. I'm curious as to just what accounts you are using, as a single equipment setup will obtain an average of 800k-1m XP, and leveling throughout the course of the equipment test would completely ruin the numbers. I'll post my experiments and my findings when I'm completely through with them, thank you very much. Just note that most statistical analysis don't require tens of thousands of data points, 2000 should be more than sufficient for each set up. Also, Chi-squared tests require about 10 data points for each bin, and if there's only 10 bins (0-9), 100 data points would suffice. But if you don't know statistical analysis, I'm not going to explain the tests here. Now, there are questions that I'm still looking to answer, and you haven't provided them. -How is hits/splashes/damage determined for range, and magic? -What is the correct ratio for defense level and defense bonus? -Does magic level affect magic defense? I'm going to be extremely meticulous in my approach, to not mess anything up, and I'll make sure to post all my data and my conclusions. The only thing you've done so far is to post your conclusions. Next time, back it up (your drive, literally. those thousands of hours lost must've stunk).

So what are your correct numbers then, compfreak? None of the numbers I posted were random, and they were all theoretically correct. Cool beans. Can I see your data and analyze it for myself? Don't tell me how to get data. I know what has to be done, how it has to be done, and why it has to be done. I doubt that you've controlled as many variables as I plan on controlling i.e. the opponent. If melee is as Jagex says it is, then someone with a max hit of 19, an attack level of 99 should hit on someone with 1 defense about 95% of the time. They should also average around 9 or 10 per hit. The more times I hit on someone else, the lower my standard error is, the closer to the true mean. This is where your problem is. Looks like all the tests you've performed were on one account. I don't plan on using my main account for this.

Well, in my own defense, I did explicitly state that it was pure speculation. I also gave other reasons why the combat triangle isn't balanced, including damage per unit time. When I have free time, I will set up some controlled tests, and post my results, something I haven't seen you do here. Figure that 1k-10k hits with various attack, defense, range, and magic combinations should shed some light on this idea. It should give a small enough standard error for a t-test or a chi-squared test.

were you in bioice's old cc? PM me about it.

yeah, pretty much the GE. What you may be describing there may be pure coincidence. I usually like to frequent my friend's CCs. If I'm not a friend or above, I take them off my friends list. Usually clearing it takes about 10 minutes, but having spots open for new people is good.

On F2P, I average about 1.2k xp per game (scoring about 25 to 20 on air, 5/8 on mind, 20/15 water, 10/7 earth, 25/18 fire, 24/15 mind) (3-4k xp /hour). Its about the same as normal air running, but once you get tablets, you can do air runs in about 25-30 seconds (teleport to falador, run to bank, air tablet, craft, repeat). This is probably 10k xp / hour, but very tedious. With P2P, more altars, pouches to craft at later times, etc, you'd probably get around 8-10k xp / hour.

Get a sturdy rope, hang it from the ciel.... If you're f2p, a controlled way to die is to keep picking up the Al Kharid Scorpion in the Prayer guild, you can also use the monks to heal yourself.

You don't know that, unless you know the inner workings of the game. I can also tell you they may be generated the same way, but they might not be used the same way. Jagex told us that for melee, a number is generated for the hit (between 0 and max), and a number is generated for the attack (compared with the defense, if the number is higher than the defense, you don't splash). However, they did not tell us how hits are determined for range or magic. Is there one number generated for accuracy, and another for the hit? That wouldn't make much sense, because there is only one skill involved with range/magic. Also, where does your defense for magic come from? Does it come in the form of your magic level, or defense level? I also doubt you've tested every F2P setup, and even if you had, you may have misinterpreted your own data. I know you've had "1000's of hours of PVP", but how much of that was F2P, testing Fire Blast or Rune Scimitars? Oh, and that last part with speculation didn't matter too much, because I already showed without it that Range>Melee from 80-100 combat.

Alright, what are your suggestions then? So, I'll brainstorm how to incorporate the trapdoor in the RC Guild. Any suggestions from this would be helpful as well. Sorry about that - I've changed it so that most of the stuff is in hide tags, and only the formatted parts are in code boxes. Eventually I'll make images again, but I'm swamped as it is.

Your talking about members, right? In that case, I'm afraid you have no idea what you are talking about. I have no problem trouncing a meleer or ranger with 99 magic. See the other thread on this, it isn't even an argument. Can we keep this discussion on F2P? I believe that we all agree that the (F2P) combat triangle is off balance. Low levels: Mage > Melee/Range. I haven't pked much with low level Range, but I believe between combat 35-50, Melee > Range, as it should be in all cases. At combats 40-50, Melee starts to catch up with Mage, because Mage has already maxed out, and meleers with 40 range, 40 attack, and maxed strength (40 to 66) can start to wear d'hide for a some magic defense, while starting to hit about 10-14 with a rune scimitar. They can also have 71 magic without raising their combat, which provides excellent magic defense. [hide=Higher level combats]At combats 80-100, mage is long gone, and here's where the range tanks come into play. Someone with 80 combat (87 range, 81 hits, 50 defense, 47 prayer) can hit 16's with rapid. Someone with 100 combat (99 range, 96 hits, 90 defense, 51 prayer) can hit 18's with rapid. Granted, there could be a 100 combat melee with 99 strength, 80 attack, 96 hits, 50 defense, and 51 prayer. Here's the thing take away defense and attack, and the ranger in the long run will average 9's. The melee with average 12-13's. The kicker? Without worrying about attack and defense, the ranger shoots 3 times every time the melee hits 2 times. Meaning that in the same time span, the ranger will average 27, and the melee will average 25. Further more, in that situation, I've completely neglected defense, and attack. The ranger has a superior defense and a superior attack. Even if the way they determine hits or not was the same for range and melee, the ranger would hit 99 attack versus the melee's 50 defense, and the melee would hit his 80 attack on the ranger's 90 defense. The way Jagex generates a number for melee is 1 number to determine if there's a hit or not, and 1 number to determine how high. Which means that they're just as likely to splash on 0 as they are 25 and that the average is much lower than 12 or 13. The way a melee hits was confirmed with the "What's wrong Jad, Chicken?" article. (here be speculation) I'd be willing to bet that Jagex only generates 1 number for range, and that's used to determine the hit, and whether it will hit or not. So defense against a high ranger would act as a "filter" - the 0-8's would generally be blocked, but the 9 and above would generally hit. Which would mean that a ranger's average hit would be lowered slightly, but not as much as the melee's.[/hide] [hide=What should be done about this?]-Instead of 2 skills raising total combat for melee, there should only be one, OR the levels gained shouldn't raise the levels faster (mage contributions = range = (attack + strength)). -Random numbers generated for each type of hit should be the same, either 1 number for range, melee, and mage, or 2 numbers. -Armour on other skill's bonuses should be universal. Wearing D'hide should help melee and mage, be neutral, or hurt both. Same with platebodies, chains, and robes. That way hybriding in one class doesn't give a bigger advantage than hybriding in another. -Mage's max hits should be redetermined with magic level, OR there needs to be new F2P spells that can hit the equivalent Melee/Range damage/second, or both. -Defense should be universal, there is no "magic" defense included in a magic level, but there can be "magic" defense bonuses like there is "range" and "stab/slash/crush" defense bonuses.[/hide] If you got to here, and read it all, thanks. Please don't debate what I've said here unless you've read it in it's entirety, and understand what I've said. Feel free to ask for clarification. :D glad to have cleared that up.

Just a little clarification, please. Are you talking about making smithing a profitable skill again, or are you wanting to make it a faster skill/cheaper skill to gain xp in? If you want it to be profitable, then a new type of armour isn't what is needed. I don't believe that smithing will ever become profitable again. Even if you released a new type of armour, or changed the level requirements and xp rates for certain armours, the market would still find its way into the rut we have now: a mithril bar costs about 1.2k each, and that the fastest experience costs the most, the median experience breaks even, and the slowest experience makes a small profit. If you want to make it a faster, cheaper skill, then a new mine would have to be released right next to a bank, and a furnace. This would, once again, change the prices of everything right now, but the experience would be faster and cheaper. To make smithing as a fun skill, you would need a new smithing based minigame, sort of what GOP did for runecrafting. But thats just MHO.

The only players these updates really hurt were the high level F2p RCers.... seems that people like you quit running, and it was impossible to train RC effectively (talk about a difficult skill going to impossible). So, to appease us, Jagex introduced the GOP. And we've been quiet ever since. -sees