The Economy: Current Rares

[highlanders]

 

Because, a mod or Andrew, I don't remember who, but someone important, stated that the odds of getting a 3rd age item (any item of 3rd age, including the less expensive ranged and mage) from a clue was the same as getting a d shield haft out of a skeletton(or full I dont remember). Now, the odds of that happening is 1 out of 10 000.

 

 

 

So each time you do a lvl 3 clue, you have a 1 out of 10 000 chance of getting a 3rd age item.

 

 

 

 

I'd like to correct that, there are 12 different 3a items(4 per set, 3 sets). So the chances that you get a piece are 12 on 10000 or 1 on 833 clues.

 

 

 

 

 

 

No you don't understand. The odds of getting a d shield from a skeleton are of 1 out of 10 000, not 12 out of 10 000. Each time you make a clue, you have 1 out of 10 000 chance of getting one 3rd age item.

 

 

 

I'm no expert on the subject. If you want to check it out, there's a official forum topic about this, with lots of discussing, but overall, there seems to be a consensus that the 1 out of 10 000 is correct.

[qeltar]

Maybe rares are dropping in price because people are finally figuring out that they are completely useless crap that serves no function other than bragging, and they'd rather use their money to play the game?

 

 

 

Probably not, but one can hope.

 

 

 

~q

[highlanders]

Maybe rares are dropping in price because people are finally figuring out that they are completely useless crap that serves no function other than bragging, and they'd rather use their money to play the game?

 

 

 

Probably not, but one can hope.

 

 

 

~q

 

 

 

How cheesey. May I remind you that for some people, achieving a goal like getting a phat is playing the game. Heck, doing anything in a game can be called playing a game.

[qeltar]

If people really view getting a Burger King hat as a goal, then that's their choice. The problem is that they seem to think it should be a lifetime guarantee that their "wealth" will go up every month due to finding even stupider people to pay even more money for them later.

 

 

 

Rares are a dysfunctional part of this game and responsible for a huge percentage of its problems.

 

 

 

~q

[Solidus_77]

Santas: Price is fluctuating +/- 500K from 19M. Seems to be relatively stable; demand isn't high enough for merchers to significantly inflate prices

 

 

 

an accurate observation, except that merchants don't inflate prices, those are price manipulators. The reason prices of discontinued items rise is not because of merchants. Merchants merely use the price range to their advantage, they offer a service and just because they sell for more than they buy doesn't mean that this inflates the prices at all.

 

 

 

3rd Age: Very low supply, but demand is inconsistent. Prices vary M's a day: unstable prices. With stable phat prices, looking cooler than phats, and more use than phats, 3A might see the meteoric growth characterized by discontinueds.

 

 

 

They are quite rare like phats, but the big difference with 3rd age is that 3rd age isn't discontinued, so the supply increase over time unlike the phats. Therefore, it's invalid to claim that they will act in the same way as discontinued items.

 

 

Furies: Stabilized at 4M, after a big drop.

 

 

 

Result of the Karamja achievement diary

 

 

DChain: Price fell to 13M, then stabilized to 13.5M. I suspect that Dchain prices will continue to fall to even below 5M.

 

 

 

Did you just say "5M" at random? That's not a very accurate analysis.

 

 

 

 

Barrows sets: With Torag at around 1.3-.4M, we're seeing armor set prices bottom out at ~1M(torag)-4M(guthan) within the next year.

 

 

 

Again, did you come up with these prices at random or is there actually some logical explanation?

 

 

 

Which of the small rares do you think will get a price boost this summer? With the aging of skill capes, the number of people aiming to obtain expensive items will go up. 99 Cooking, 99 FM, 99 Fletching capes are getting old. That means more demand for items, more buyers, and more money willing to be spent on these items.

 

 

 

That's one way to look at it, but new players are likely to go for those capes as well. I suppose you could expect all the thousands of cooking/fletching cape owners to try for something a bit more tricky, but would they necessarily go for a rare? or would they go for another skillcape?

 

 

 

Maybe rares are dropping in price because people are finally figuring out that they are completely useless crap that serves no function other than bragging, and they'd rather use their money to play the game?

 

 

 

Probably not, but one can hope.

 

 

 

~q

 

 

 

Wow, ignorance is bliss.

 

 

 

First of all, stats alone do not determine use. Phats serve as a status symbol which, itself, creates a goal to strive for. This is a use.

 

 

 

Second of all, just because you'd rather spend money on other things doesn't make you more jutified than others. It's quite selfish of you to think "they are not using their money to play the game because they are buying something that I think is useless".

 

 

 

Third of all, this bragging that you speak of is the exact same reason for people going for a skillcape. In fact "bragging" is just showing one's achievements in this game, and this game is all about goals and achievements.

 

 

 

Finally, you clearly didn't understand which rares this whole topic is about. This is about rare items which are not discontinued (except the santa hat, and that's such a minor thing) although I do think this a bit missleading. Also, we're discussing a possible rise in prices, not fall

[hohto]

They are quite rare like phats, but the big difference with 3rd age is that 3rd age isn't discontinued, so the supply increase over time unlike the phats. Therefore, it's invalid to claim that they will act in the same way as discontinued items.

 

 

 

However they are ultimate rare and there's a real reason to use them: staking. Even slight advantage over the opponent will help in a long run and stakers who stake tens, maybe hundreds of millions at once won't hesitate to take the advantage. This means there will still be a huge demand for them in future, so I wouldn't be surprised if they acted like discontinued items for the next 9-15 months. Eventually they will get more stable and then start their slow going down, but with this supply and demand it won't be anytime in near future if Jagex doesn't give us new items to stake with.

[Solidus_77]

They are quite rare like phats, but the big difference with 3rd age is that 3rd age isn't discontinued, so the supply increase over time unlike the phats. Therefore, it's invalid to claim that they will act in the same way as discontinued items.

 

 

 

However they are ultimate rare and there's a real reason to use them: staking. Even slight advantage over the opponent will help in a long run and stakers who stake tens, maybe hundreds of millions at once won't hesitate to take the advantage. This means there will still be a huge demand for them in future, so I wouldn't be surprised if they acted like discontinued items for the next 9-15 months. Eventually they will get more stable and then start their slow going down, but with this supply and demand it won't be anytime in near future if Jagex doesn't give us new items to stake with.

 

 

 

If they are being used for staking, there's no reason why they will only increase in price later. If they are used for staking, then the demand will already have increased.

 

 

 

Also, don't say "acting like discontinued items" when all you mean is increase in price. It's incredibly misleading since the discontinued items and the third age items increase in price for completely different reasons.

[Madouge]

This is kinda off topic, but why would people stake in third age? Surely they'd just wear barrows armour...

[AirlessWig]

 

Because, a mod or Andrew, I don't remember who, but someone important, stated that the odds of getting a 3rd age item (any item of 3rd age, including the less expensive ranged and mage) from a clue was the same as getting a d shield haft out of a skeletton(or full I dont remember). Now, the odds of that happening is 1 out of 10 000.

 

 

 

So each time you do a lvl 3 clue, you have a 1 out of 10 000 chance of getting a 3rd age item.

 

 

 

 

I'd like to correct that, there are 12 different 3a items(4 per set, 3 sets). So the chances that you get a piece are 12 on 10000 or 1 on 833 clues.

 

 

 

 

 

 

No you don't understand. The odds of getting a d shield from a skeleton are of 1 out of 10 000, not 12 out of 10 000. Each time you make a clue, you have 1 out of 10 000 chance of getting one 3rd age item.

 

 

 

I'm no expert on the subject. If you want to check it out, there's a official forum topic about this, with lots of discussing, but overall, there seems to be a consensus that the 1 out of 10 000 is correct.

 

 

 

Yes but there are 12 different items, all with a 1 on 10000 chance, so if you spread them you end up at 833,333333333 clues.

 

 

 

Another example:

 

 

 

Take dagganoth rex

 

Special drops :

 

Dragon Axe: 1 on 75 chance

 

Warrior Ring: 1 on 75 chance

 

Berserker Ring: 1 on 75 chance

 

 

 

Now let's say you kill 75, you have a berserker ring, warrior ring and an axe(assuming your drops follow the dropstats). Thats 3 special drops(even though the drops are different) on 75 chances, or 3 on 75, or 1 on 25 chance for a special drop.

 

 

 

If you would assume you only get 1 item on 10000 clues, that would mean a 120000 clues to get the 3 sets, however, what the mod said, every item drops within 10000 clues. If anyone is still reading this, tell me what you think

[cellstorm]

i think that the current situation with autoers and goldfarmers is 1 reason the smallers rares are dropping. Jagex themselves stated that in 1 of the cleanups they banned over 6bil in gp. to take that money out of any economy is going to do strange things to items that have a value pinned to the state of the economy.

 

 

 

if you want a tip from me for the best return on your cash, i think masks are gonna out perform santas over the next 6months or so :-$ but keep it to yourself

[hohto]

Also, don't say "acting like discontinued items" when all you mean is increase in price. It's incredibly misleading since the discontinued items and the third age items increase in price for completely different reasons.

 

 

 

With acting I meant upsides and downsides in prices. We've already seen their price flipping up and down.

[Solidus_77]

Also, don't say "acting like discontinued items" when all you mean is increase in price. It's incredibly misleading since the discontinued items and the third age items increase in price for completely different reasons.

 

 

 

With acting I meant upsides and downsides in prices. We've already seen their price flipping up and down.

 

 

 

So not only increase in price. But once again that is not specific to rares. They flip up and down in prices for different reasons than rares.

[imaerehw14]

This is kinda off topic, but why would people stake in third age? Surely they'd just wear barrows armour...

 

 

 

they dont have the defence level for barrows? :oops:

 

 

 

 

 

on topic: i really hope masks see a rise later in the summer. I've had a green sitting in my bank for a while (bought at 18.5m). eventually i plan to upgrade itto a blue or red, but not for a while. I hope i can get the money before they rise too high. but, if they do rise high, i will still have the green sitting in my bank.

[mrmyk]

which rare will rise? disk of returning.

 

 

 

they are very undervalued i think and should be up close to half wines

[IgnacioxD]

rares are goin up for sure this summer

 

 

 

also items like coal and iron and raw sharks( that are very low of price) ar going to rise again

 

 

 

because veery1 thinks ow sharks are cheap i'm goin to buy them

 

more demand same offer =====> price raises

 

same thing with iron and coal

 

 

 

i really find it quite odd that barrows and d prices are lowering

 

those are really rare and more and more peeps are asking for them

[meb]

I don't know when the rares will rise. But they will. Not this summer though. Because a lot of people will use those long summer days (and nights) to finally get their 99, or get another 99. But once the majority of players has had enough of training their skills and decide to buy a rare to look cool, the prices will skyrocket.

 

 

 

Mrmyk, I don't think they will ever see a spectacular rise. You can't wear it, so it has little value to most players (including me).

 

 

 

I doubt Third age will see even higher prices; excep for the lower phats they are the most expensive items someone who does not stake can buy (in a realistic timephrame, you could rc nats for a year of course but I don't think many people will do that). It's great to show off, but most people I see with it wear a matching party hat (white or blue, not excactly the cheapest). Most people think party hats> Third age. Perhaps when the party hats see a big rise, the third age armour sets will rise too, but not as spctacular.

 

 

 

To sum it up:

 

For now skill capes are more wanted than rares, but I think it may switch around in the upcoming months.

 

 

 

Nobody wants a disk of returning.

 

 

 

The value of third age armour will see a steady decline as long as the party hats do, and may rise again when the phats do.

[Solidus_77]

mEb. People don't usually try to go for a skillcape and then decide for a rare all the time. They could jsut as well go for another skillcape. Then you've got more waves of people who will go for skillcapes (The easy ones most of the time of course).

[owned_thou]

Always, rares will rise during the summer and fall during the winter. Although the rise is greater, there's always a decline for some reason, or many reasons, during the winter.

 

 

 

But it's impossible to predict the market as others have said.

 

 

 

But, I don't see 3rd age jumping up much. Just like chains, whips, etc., more and more will come. That's inevitable. And as long as there's a supply, the demand will go down unless all of a sudden thousands of people get lots of money, the stats, and are willing to pay more and more for them.

[TheAncient]

The flawed argument against 3A.

 

 

 

Of course supply increases over time for 3rd age items. They aren't discontinued. However, the number of treasure hunters and the number of clues done every day is not a dramatically increasing number. The supply remains low enough that, for the time being, 3rd age items are rare enough to let manipulators and merchers call the shots, not the buyers. You can search forums for, let's say, a white party hat. You'll see at least 3 posts. But I never see more than 2 posts about selling a 3rd age range top.

 

 

 

Of course, in the time of 3-4 years there will be a significantly smaller proportion with people that own rares. However, this is 3-4 years down the road. The economy is now; the next 3 months.

[AirlessWig]

The flawed argument against 3A.

 

 

 

Of course supply increases over time for 3rd age items. They aren't discontinued. However, the number of treasure hunters and the number of clues done every day is not a dramatically increasing number. The supply remains low enough that, for the time being, 3rd age items are rare enough to let manipulators and merchers call the shots, not the buyers. You can search forums for, let's say, a white party hat. You'll see at least 3 posts. But I never see more than 2 posts about selling a 3rd age range top.

 

 

 

Of course, in the time of 3-4 years there will be a significantly smaller proportion with people that own rares. However, this is 3-4 years down the road. The economy is now; the next 3 months.

 

 

 

Actually I had 3rd age mageset for a while, bought it for 60 million(overrpriced at that time) and decided to sell it a week and a half later. People were just outbidding each other on my thread and it finally went for 82m. If a 3rd age item has no barrowequivalent, it's the best bonus in game. Best kite, best magic ammy, best magic hat, best coif. That and the fact that it looks great make the price. But not the merchanters or manipulators. 3rd age can go up or down 10m. It just depends on the buyer.

[Star_Fox]

im expecting a slight drop for 3rd age in a couple of months. stakers have barrow sets anyways. :o

 

 

 

for dragon chains, they stayed stable when they were at the cost of 22+ then they fell dramatically down to 19m and slowly dropped overtime. im guessing they will stay at 13 and drop down to below 11-10m and stay stable again.

[TheWilch]

im not sure if anybody relizes the range boots.

 

 

 

but ive taken advantage of these lil buggers. il start out with my usual 2 pairs of them. starting in fally w2. oh everyones buying for 2.2m oh ok. well w6 camelot. :mrgreen: sold both for 2.5m each. back to w2 to buy 2 more for only 2.2m

 

 

 

 

 

range boots are going up, forever. i can really see them in a year being double a robin hat.

[Solidus_77]

The flawed argument against 3A.

 

 

 

Of course supply increases over time for 3rd age items. They aren't discontinued. However, the number of treasure hunters and the number of clues done every day is not a dramatically increasing number. The supply remains low enough that, for the time being, 3rd age items are rare enough to let manipulators and merchers call the shots, not the buyers. You can search forums for, let's say, a white party hat. You'll see at least 3 posts. But I never see more than 2 posts about selling a 3rd age range top.

 

 

 

Of course, in the time of 3-4 years there will be a significantly smaller proportion with people that own rares. However, this is 3-4 years down the road. The economy is now; the next 3 months.

 

 

 

Once again, you've got nothing but arbitrary claims. Why is the economy the next 3 months? Why not just 1 month? is the rate of 3:2 post for phat to Third age actually based on some facts or did you just look at the forums one day and see this?

 

 

 

Third age prices, no matter what, are not going to gradually increase over time. That characteristic is for discontinued items alone and therefore Third age will not "act like rares". What we have right now are some prices that jump all over the place, that's not at all like rares which have a sustained increase over a longer period of time. The third age are going to have a sustained decrease over time most likely. Seems to me you just notice some price changes and see the same kind of changes in phats and just assume they both changed for the same reason, which is obviously not the case.

[highlanders]

If people really view getting a Burger King hat as a goal, then that's their choice. The problem is that they seem to think it should be a lifetime guarantee that their "wealth" will go up every month due to finding even stupider people to pay even more money for them later.

 

 

 

Rares are a dysfunctional part of this game and responsible for a huge percentage of its problems.

 

 

 

~q

 

Rares are a dysfunctional part of this game and are responsible for a huge percentage of its problems?

 

That sentence is funny so much its absurd.

 

Of cooouurse, you're right, let's blame it all on the rares.

 

 

 

Sure it would help if you actually made an example or some sort of backup for what you're saying.

 

 

 

It's like saying "the sky is red" then people are like uhh what? Give us some proofs..Because right now nothing pops to mind. :lol: Actually all I can think of is people saying rares are the pillar of the economy, that's not what I would call a huge percentage of problems.

[qeltar]

The pursuit of rares leads to a lot of the negative behavior in the game, due to players trying to raise ridiculous amounts of money for items. Scamming, luring, obsessive playing, market manipulation, cheating, verbal abuse, bullying -- it is not all related to rares, but a lot of it is.

 

 

 

Any time you create a system involving social strata of "haves" and "have nots", what you get is problems.

 

 

 

~q